2014 Qualifying Offers Discussion

[brewcrewdue80]

I've harped how this QO stuff isn't helping the small markets bridge the gap to the big markets...In fact it is getting worse.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24223573/yankees-relieved-grandy-gone-focus-first-on-choo-or-beltran-in-of

 

Yes, the Yankees didn't want to offer Grandy the QO but the idea of gaining the draft pick(in a perfect world NO team signs him) was too enticing not to...and hey they can afford it but he would have locked up CF on that team when they want to go after Choo or Elsbury to play CF for them instead.

 

Big Market team able to take the risk for a maximum gain. Sure that late 20s pick isn't going to likely amount to huge amount but it's the loss of the 1st rd pick/2nd rd pick these other teams lose signing one of the Yankees players that will lead to long term effects.

Cleveland was the 2QO signing team last season taking Swisher/Bourn. Yes helps them for these next 2-5years but beyond?

Meanwhile the Yanks will be stockpiling all these QO comp picks and if 1st/2nd rd draft picks result in 50% making it to the Majors they are sure to have the odds hit for them big time with one of these added selections.

 

But it's not a problem right? All teams can do what the Yankees are doing!

Wrong Pittsburgh couldn't extend the QO to AJ Burnett whom everyone believed was worthy of having extended. Why? Pittsburgh, small market, can't take on the 14.1mil contract Burnett would be getting if he accepted the QO.

 

So the small market team loses their FA without compensation. Can't sign a FA due to the price. and the Big markets not only can extend these offers, but sign the big contracts...All the while gaining draft selections on the small market clubs.

See where this is heading?

[trwi7]

Anyone who actually thought this new system would help smaller market, lower revenue teams was smoking the finest crack in all the land.

[torts]

thats total BS about the Pirates, they can/could easily take on a 1 year $14.1 mil deal. Burnett, even though the Yankees gave money to the $16 mil he made last year, isnt going to take a $6+ mil pay cut to play one more year in Pittsburgh.

[paul253]

Burnett, even though the Yankees gave money to the $16 mil he made last year, isnt going to take a $6+ mil pay cut to play one more year in Pittsburgh.

 

People may be hesitant to give a 37 year old pitcher a multi year deal, especially when he'll be seeking something close to the $16.5 million he made each of the last 5 years. If it comes to accepting, say, either a two year $20 million deal or a one year $14.1 million deal he may well accept the one year deal and try again next season.

 

But that's not the point. The point is if a team like Pittsburgh or Milwaukee or Oakland has a guy accept this offer then they have to cut elsewhere. If a team like NYY, Boston, or the Dodgers has a guy accept the offer they'll simply move forward with a higher payroll. Therefore it is much riskier for certain teams to make the QO and it is yet another built in advantage for the teams with more financial resources.

 

How anyone can look at a sport where there is a $204 million disparity between the teams with the highest and lowest payrolls and claim everyone has an equal shot at consistently winning is beyond me.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Last time I checked the sub 100 million payroll teams are doing pretty well. It all comes down to drafting and developing, IMO Seid has been REALLY awful and he needs to go like yesterday!

[torts]

Burnett, even though the Yankees gave money to the $16 mil he made last year, isnt going to take a $6+ mil pay cut to play one more year in Pittsburgh.

 

People may be hesitant to give a 37 year old pitcher a multi year deal, especially when he'll be seeking something close to the $16.5 million he made each of the last 5 years. If it comes to accepting, say, either a two year $20 million deal or a one year $14.1 million deal he may well accept the one year deal and try again next season.

 

But that's not the point. The point is if a team like Pittsburgh or Milwaukee or Oakland has a guy accept this offer then they have to cut elsewhere. If a team like NYY, Boston, or the Dodgers has a guy accept the offer they'll simply move forward with a higher payroll. Therefore it is much riskier for certain teams to make the QO and it is yet another built in advantage for the teams with more financial resources.

 

How anyone can look at a sport where there is a $204 million disparity between the teams with the highest and lowest payrolls and claim everyone has an equal shot at consistently winning is beyond me.

 

Burnett wasnt/isnt looking for a multi-year deal, though. he's been on the radio saying one more year with the pirates or retirement pretty much since the all star break.

[brewcrewdue80]

Last time I checked the sub 100 million payroll teams are doing pretty well. It all comes down to drafting and developing, IMO Seid has been REALLY awful and he needs to go like yesterday!

 

 

And that's the point of this. The Yankees extended 3 offers last season Gained 2 picks. Extended 3 offers this season. Richest team in baseball gaining draft picks as players THEY DONT WANT!!! leave to another team via FA.

 

The idea of compensation is because a team loses a player via FA because they couldn't come to terms with an extension. The compensation is to help the small market teams when they lose players they cannot afford to sign and keep. NY,Boston they can afford to sign and keep these guys but chose not to. They will gain draft picks.

 

Let's see how would Tampa the king of the FA Comps prior to this. Guess what? They are trading away any player that they'd extend a QO to because moneywise they cannot afford that contract and make money. Shields gone. Price will be gone. Now sure, the players they recieve in these trades will likely be better than the draft comp, but they have to forego a post-season looking team with Price headlining it on their staff to moving forward with 1 less ace and whom they get in return in trade.

Meanwhile, the team that acquires Price will A, be a big market club and extend him before FA. Or B, extend that QO getting his final year before FA and then receiving that draft pick comp lessening the blow of losing that prospect they had to give up for him.

 

Let's picture 2years from now. Options all picked up. Would the Brewers extend an offer to Gallardo,Lohse,ARam, or Weeks? Based on the rise of contracts my guess is that is 4 players 1yr deals of 15.4mil or 61.6mil on team payroll. They more than likely couldn't extend those QOs to that many FAs to be. NY? Bos? LA? Chc? Won't be a problem. And there in lies the problem.

[JohnBriggs12]

Last time I checked the sub 100 million payroll teams are doing pretty well. It all comes down to drafting and developing, IMO Seid has been REALLY awful and he needs to go like yesterday!

 

Didn't I just read someplace that the 2013 Brewer rookie class was amongst the top in baseball in WAR? Seid isn't going anywhere.

[sveumrules]

One of the driving factors in WAR is playing time. Brewers rookies were 4th in plate appearances (4th in fWAR at 3.1) and 1st in innings pitched (12th in fWAR at 2.2).

 

Seid has been alright at finding back end starters, middle relievers and bench players so far. We need him to find a superstar or two.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Last time I checked the sub 100 million payroll teams are doing pretty well. It all comes down to drafting and developing, IMO Seid has been REALLY awful and he needs to go like yesterday!

 

 

And that's the point of this. The Yankees extended 3 offers last season Gained 2 picks. Extended 3 offers this season. Richest team in baseball gaining draft picks as players THEY DONT WANT!!! leave to another team via FA.

 

The idea of compensation is because a team loses a player via FA because they couldn't come to terms with an extension. The compensation is to help the small market teams when they lose players they cannot afford to sign and keep. NY,Boston they can afford to sign and keep these guys but chose not to. They will gain draft picks.

 

Let's see how would Tampa the king of the FA Comps prior to this. Guess what? They are trading away any player that they'd extend a QO to because moneywise they cannot afford that contract and make money. Shields gone. Price will be gone. Now sure, the players they recieve in these trades will likely be better than the draft comp, but they have to forego a post-season looking team with Price headlining it on their staff to moving forward with 1 less ace and whom they get in return in trade.

Meanwhile, the team that acquires Price will A, be a big market club and extend him before FA. Or B, extend that QO getting his final year before FA and then receiving that draft pick comp lessening the blow of losing that prospect they had to give up for him.

 

Let's picture 2years from now. Options all picked up. Would the Brewers extend an offer to Gallardo,Lohse,ARam, or Weeks? Based on the rise of contracts my guess is that is 4 players 1yr deals of 15.4mil or 61.6mil on team payroll. They more than likely couldn't extend those QOs to that many FAs to be. NY? Bos? LA? Chc? Won't be a problem. And there in lies the problem.

 

 

The Rays got Myers ROY for Shields.

 

Brewers have offered QO to whoever they wanted???

 

If Braun, Segura and Gomez were Free agents the Brewers would tender all of them. The reason why teams trade guys before FA is because they can get a boatload for those players.

 

The new QO system isn't hurting teams, what is hurting them is the willingness of big market teams to escalate salaries, my god, $35 million for 2 more years of Lincecum is just an awful deal for SF.

[JohnBriggs12]

Last time I checked the sub 100 million payroll teams are doing pretty well. It all comes down to drafting and developing, IMO Seid has been REALLY awful and he needs to go like yesterday!

 

 

And that's the point of this. The Yankees extended 3 offers last season Gained 2 picks. Extended 3 offers this season. Richest team in baseball gaining draft picks as players THEY DONT WANT!!! leave to another team via FA.

 

The idea of compensation is because a team loses a player via FA because they couldn't come to terms with an extension. The compensation is to help the small market teams when they lose players they cannot afford to sign and keep. NY,Boston they can afford to sign and keep these guys but chose not to. They will gain draft picks.

 

Let's see how would Tampa the king of the FA Comps prior to this. Guess what? They are trading away any player that they'd extend a QO to because moneywise they cannot afford that contract and make money. Shields gone. Price will be gone. Now sure, the players they recieve in these trades will likely be better than the draft comp, but they have to forego a post-season looking team with Price headlining it on their staff to moving forward with 1 less ace and whom they get in return in trade.

Meanwhile, the team that acquires Price will A, be a big market club and extend him before FA. Or B, extend that QO getting his final year before FA and then receiving that draft pick comp lessening the blow of losing that prospect they had to give up for him.

 

Let's picture 2years from now. Options all picked up. Would the Brewers extend an offer to Gallardo,Lohse,ARam, or Weeks? Based on the rise of contracts my guess is that is 4 players 1yr deals of 15.4mil or 61.6mil on team payroll. They more than likely couldn't extend those QOs to that many FAs to be. NY? Bos? LA? Chc? Won't be a problem. And there in lies the problem.

 

 

Comparing the Brewers to the Rays is apples and oranges. The Rays play in front of family and a few friends. That's it.

[paul253]

Burnett wasnt/isnt looking for a multi-year deal, though. he's been on the radio saying one more year with the pirates or retirement pretty much since the all star break.

 

So wouldn't that make him even more likely to accept a QO? If you are only looking to play one more year why risk either accepting a smaller deal or not being signed at all when you are guaranteed $14 million?

 

Assuming the Pirates want Burnett back I'm sure they don't want to pay him that much money. That goes back to the original point of the thread. If the Pirates wanted Burnett back they'd still have to be careful about how much they paid him and if they didn't think they could afford the QO amount they wouldn't offer it to him. If the Yankees wanted Burnett back they'd offer the QO and wouldn't think twice about it. If he signs elsewhere so be it. They get an extra pick and go grab the next most expensive FA pitcher they can find.

[brewcrewdue80]

The thought of Morales becoming Milwaukee's 1b made me thing of how to fix the QO system.

 

It's based on the average of the top 75 paid players in baseball. Which to me, I think I worked out that just the top 10 last season accounted for 3mil added on to the average alone.

 

I think the way to fix this QO is to two tier it. First, make 1st rd compensation based on a player turning down the average of the top 40 paid players in baseball.

 

Then have a 2nd rd compensation(actually reverting back to taking over that team's pick vs end of round) and base that QO to a FA on the average of #s 41-100 paid players in Baseball.

Morales turning down 14mil was quite dumb. He's one of the slowest in all of baseball and his bat for a DH only situation isn't a big upgrade over what most teams already have.

 

But it he was tied to a 2nd round comp having turned down my idea of the 2nd tier QO he'd have turned away likely from around 9-10mil. And, having just a 2nd round comp attached to him he as a free agent may actually see his true Free Agent value. The 14mil per over 3years. But 14mil per over 3 years and losing a 1st rd pick? Like I said in the other topic, I see him having to settle for 3/33 vs the 3/42 he could be getting.

 

Obviously if you are offering a QO based on the top 40 average paid MLB player, you are an elite player, and more than likely will be signed away regardless of the 1st rd comp.

 

I think this would turn in to a win-win situation if hammered out for both the teams losing FAs while the FAs don't lose out on money.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think we need to let the system work for a few more years before we judge its effects. It will take a few more players like Lohse going into spring training without a team and having to sign a relatively team friendly contract you will see more of the accept the QO. It can take a few years before the risks of not accepting a QO are fully realized so it will take some time to judge the effects the system has over the long haul. If Morales ends up with less money than he would have in years past combined with what happened with Lohse last season I could see the number of accepted QO's going up next season. If next years version of Lohse ends up that way it would affect the 2015 group even more.

 

While some teams may be able to afford them it doesn't mean they want them. Being stuck with a guy you wanted to replace might not be worth a draft pick. Especially for a the teams who can afford them. The value of a draft pick isn't as high as it is for a low revenue team. They can always buy the player they want. Hell they can buy a couple a year and get them for even lower draft picks. It only took a second rounder for the Yankees to get Sabathia because they bought Teixeira the same year.

[brewcrewdue80]

While some teams may be able to afford them it doesn't mean they want them. Being stuck with a guy you wanted to replace might not be worth a draft pick. Especially for a the teams who can afford them. The value of a draft pick isn't as high as it is for a low revenue team. They can always buy the player they want. Hell they can buy a couple a year and get them for even lower draft picks. It only took a second rounder for the Yankees to get Sabathia because they bought Teixeira the same year.

 

That's sorta where I'm heading with this. That 1 signing by a team should not reduce the penalty they receive for signing another(and that aforementioned Sabathia/Texiera was before QOs)

So if the Yankees sign 2-3 1st round comp guys they are penalized 1st rd picks regardless. If they only have 1 this year then the 2nd and 3rd are penalized the next season and so forth til they pay off their penalty. The same would happen with my idea for the 2nd rd comps. You aren't penalized a 3rd rd selection, You lose a Second 2nd rd choice whether it be that season's draft of the following year's.

 

I think this would work far better overall than this current system because a guy who's about a 70th-100th best player in baseball getting a QO today is penalizing the team that signs him way too much. Also, a small market team truly has the chance to make QOs even if it's on 1st rd comp because the 21-23mil it would cost should they accept it should be better than market value of what that player is about to get in FA. And they can always proceed with trading the player away if he accepts it and leaves them in a 1year financial bind. (What's Pitts. going to do about McCutchen?)

But meanwhile a quality guy sorta like AJ Burnett, older, can be offered the 2nd rd. QO. Something I guess would be at 10mil a year. Should he accept it great it didn't cost Pittsburgh 1/8th, or worse, their entire team payroll. Vs. the 1/16th it costs the LAs,NYs,Chc of MLB.

 

Think about it, would Milwaukee have offered Hart a 2nd rd. QO this offseason? I'd think so. It's really terrible that what is potentially the 2nd-3rd best Bat in this Free Agency lost by Milwaukee comes with zero compensation! But to offer Hart today's QO was to offer him a 4mil raise after not playing all year. The 2nd rd QO though would be right in line with what he may make this year anyway. If Corey goes on to a 25+HR year in Seattle you have to wonder do they QO him like Morales? Stealing away the compensation Milwaukee could have gotten had it not been for his knee injuries.

 

It just burns because thus far Milwaukee has been screwed by the FA compensation over the last 4years. Sabathia, taking in Lohse, and now Hart.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think MLB needs to do away completely with compensatory/supplemental picks and the QO system - it's only created more opportunities for big market teams to skim talent from the drafts and sign who they want in FA, IMO.

 

I would propose to penalize teams who are above the luxury tax limit by taking away their high draft choices - if a team is over the luxury tax 1 season, they lose their third round pick. 2 consecutive seasons they lose both their 2nd and 3rd round picks. 3+ consecutive seasons they lose their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks. Those draft slots are then given to the MLB teams operating below the luxury tax limit by order of worst record to best (or most $ available for draft signings to least) until those slots are covered for each draft year. Luxury tax offenders also continue to pay the established penalties to put towards revenue sharing. Luxury tax limit could be set each year as the average of MLB's top 10 payrolls - that way if there are a few teams blowing everyone else out of the water writing checks with unlimited TV money (NYY, Angels, Dodgers...), the luxury tax would be difficult to get below over several seasons that would adversely impact their farm systems.

 

With this setup, or one based on this premise, teams could still buy whoever they want and FAs wouldn't be restricted by some team losing a draft choice to sign them. But it would eliminate supplemental rounds that big spenders have used to skim 1st and 2nd round talent from the little guys who are rarely big players in free agency to begin with. I'm sure there are flaws with this idea too, but I think something along these lines would at least give organizations who need to build from within less of a competitive disadvantage on the drafting side of things.

[Eye Black]

One of my problems with current QO system is there still seems to be a lot of unknown regarding how MLB is going to police potential loop-holes.

 

For instance, teams reportedly attempted sign and trade deals to acquire Bourn and Lohse last year, but MLB apparently shut those deals down. So if the Cardinals would have re-signed Lohse last year they weren't allowed to trade him, but when would that restriction have expired? Could they have traded him in May or June without issue from MLB? Also, what if a team with a protected 1st round pick had signed Lohse and immediately a team like the Brewers liked the contract terms, but hadn't been willing to give up their 1st round pick so they worked out a trade to acquire Lohse?

 

Another scenario I am curious to see play out is a player like Kendrys Morales just wait until June 8th (day after MLB Draft) to sign with a team. My understanding is in this scenario the team would not be subject to forfeiting any future draft picks, so they would in essence be saving their first draft pick by forgoing the first two months of service from the player. And if this practice resulted in a much higher than expected contract for the player, will more of these fringe guys just wait things out until they no longer have a 1st round pick attached to them.

[djoctagone]

if a team is willing to give up high level prospects in a trade before 31 july to take on a pro-rated salary of a stud player, the team should be more willing to sign a free agent (such as morales) for a similar pro-rated amount after 8 june--knowing they don't have to give up any players or draft picks (other than perhaps making room on the roster for the free agent).

 

i don't think that the pro-rated contracts will be huge--i think they'll be in line with the pro-rated amount of the qualifying offer. look for these free agents tied to draft pick compensation to sign month-to-month contracts with independent league teams.

[wallus]

The best FA first baseman available is Morales and he would require us to give up our first round pick. Are there any rules against Seattle trading us a player for "future considerations" so we can sign Morales and they get our first rounder? Not that I am necessarily saying that is our best option but I am curious.

[jerichoholicninja]

The best FA first baseman available is Morales and he would require us to give up our first round pick. Are there any rules against Seattle trading us a player for "future considerations" so we can sign Morales and they get our first rounder? Not that I am necessarily saying that is our best option but I am curious.

 

Bud squashed the Mets attempts to get around giving up a pick last year and has said that he will block any sign and trade so I don't think it would work.

[djoctagone]

the brewers were willing to give up four players to cleveland to land cc sabathia on 7 july 2008. doug melvin stated that they wouldn't have given up the same number and/or mix of players if the trade happened even just a few days later, as it allowed cc to give the brewers an additional start.

 

now, the date in play is 8 june--a whole month earlier than when the club acquired sabathia. i remain confident that many teams will wait until then to sign free agents with qualifying offers.

[JohnBriggs12]

The trouble with the June 8th date especially regarding pitchers is that they will have a hard time getting/being ready to pitch on or near that date. They could sign with an indy league team but that carries its own risks.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think it can be safely guaranteed that all of the QO players will be signed before opening day. I don't see any way a healthy player sits out over 1/3 of the season. Eventually some team with a top ten pick is going to offer Morales a 1yr/5ishM deal and he'll accept. Even with the draft pick attached I can't believe no one has signed Drew.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think it can be safely guaranteed that all of the QO players will be signed before opening day. I don't see any way a healthy player sits out over 1/3 of the season. Eventually some team with a top ten pick is going to offer Morales a 1yr/5ishM deal and he'll accept. Even with the draft pick attached I can't believe no one has signed Drew.

 

 

How is a guy who hasn't played 130games or more in the last 3 seasons worth your 1st rd draft selection? He's turning 31 so he's on the wrong side in the age department. I thought it was laughable he was offered the QO. Even without a draft pick cost, I'd have a hard time paying Drew 9mil a year. He's likely asking for 14mil per with draft cost. Drew was on the Boston Red Sox kool-aid this past season finding magic that shouldn't be expected to be there. My guess with Drew for his career moving forward is not one season over 130 games in the next 4 years. That he doesn't have 1 season of 3WAR in any of the 4 years. and 2 are in the 2WAR while the other 2 are 0-ish. What of any of that projection suggests giving up a draft pick?

[jerichoholicninja]

I think it can be safely guaranteed that all of the QO players will be signed before opening day. I don't see any way a healthy player sits out over 1/3 of the season. Eventually some team with a top ten pick is going to offer Morales a 1yr/5ishM deal and he'll accept. Even with the draft pick attached I can't believe no one has signed Drew.

 

 

How is a guy who hasn't played 130games or more in the last 3 seasons worth your 1st rd draft selection? He's turning 31 so he's on the wrong side in the age department. I thought it was laughable he was offered the QO. Even without a draft pick cost, I'd have a hard time paying Drew 9mil a year. He's likely asking for 14mil per with draft cost. Drew was on the Boston Red Sox kool-aid this past season finding magic that shouldn't be expected to be there. My guess with Drew for his career moving forward is not one season over 130 games in the next 4 years. That he doesn't have 1 season of 3WAR in any of the 4 years. and 2 are in the 2WAR while the other 2 are 0-ish. What of any of that projection suggests giving up a draft pick?

 

I think he had some back injuries last year and the reason he didn't play 130 the 2 years prior was due to the horrific, freak ankle injury he had against the Brewers that took almost a full year to recover from. His first 4 full ML seasons he played over 150 games 3 times and 135 times the other, so I'm not sure where this injury label is coming from exactly. Offensively he did pretty much what he had been doing in Arizona, putting up a near 800 OPS with 10-15 homeruns while playing a premium defensive position.