First Base 2014

[brewerfan82]

Just to throw out some key stats:

 

Brewer first basemen were last in the majors with a .206/.259/.370/.629 line last year.

 

As a team, the Brewers were first in the National League with a .267/.316/.420/.736 line against lefties in 1389 ABs. Meanwhile they were 10th in the National League against righties with a .247/.309/.390/.699 line in 4085 ABs.

 

Ike Davis has career lines of .256/.356/.471/.827 against righties and .204/.268/.334/.602 against lefties.

 

I think people are over-emphasizing his troubles against left handers. Last year, the Brewers were SIGNIFICANTLY worse against right handers, whom they face THREE times as often as left handers. Ike is a much needed left-handed bat, entering his age 27 season that addresses an area of need in the offense. To dismiss him because he hits poorly (but about as good as our first basemen did overall last season) against pitchers he'll be facing 1/4th of the time seems silly. Especially since the rest of the team dominates against that same quarter of competition.

 

Obviously, you never want to overpay for a player, but I think he's a good gamble and an obvious upgrade to our team at this point. I'd be thrilled if we can get him for Fiers and content if it's for someone that's slightly harder to stomach.

[brewmann04]

Just pray DM does not give them Thornburg for this guy.

[DHonks]

also note that he's leaving CitiField and switching to Miller Park.

[paul253]

I'd be ok with Loney but if the Brewers do anything other than a one year deal with anyone I'll be upset. It will be yet another instance of blocking a prospect with an average major league player in a shortsighted attempt to improve a bad team. Think about this. While the Brewers may have issues at first base this year, their last two minor league players of the year were both first basemen (Rogers and Morris) and they are both now at AAA. I realize that Morris and Rogers are far from sure things but you can't keep blocking your own guys. By signing someone to a two year deal you are essentially mitigating Morris to the Mat Gamel/Taylor Green treatment.

[endaround]

I'd be ok with Loney but if the Brewers do anything other than a one year deal with anyone I'll be upset. It will be yet another instance of blocking a prospect with an average major league player in a shortsighted attempt to improve a bad team. Think about this. While the Brewers may have issues at first base this year, their last two minor league players of the year were both first basemen (Rogers and Morris) and they are both now at AAA. I realize that Morris and Rogers are far from sure things but you can't keep blocking your own guys. By signing someone to a two year deal you are essentially mitigating Morris to the Mat Gamel/Taylor Green treatment.

 

Neither Morris or Rogers are prospects at this point. Morris has an alarming K rate and has been old for his level. Rogers has a decent K rate but has been really old for his level. Morris is entering his age 25 season and Rogers his age 26. Counting on either of them to produce is short sighted.

 

And the idea the Brewers treated Green and Gamel poorly is funny. Gamel was given the 1B job twice.

[MVP2110]

I'd be ok with Loney but if the Brewers do anything other than a one year deal with anyone I'll be upset. It will be yet another instance of blocking a prospect with an average major league player in a shortsighted attempt to improve a bad team. Think about this. While the Brewers may have issues at first base this year, their last two minor league players of the year were both first basemen (Rogers and Morris) and they are both now at AAA. I realize that Morris and Rogers are far from sure things but you can't keep blocking your own guys. By signing someone to a two year deal you are essentially mitigating Morris to the Mat Gamel/Taylor Green treatment.

 

I tend to disagree with this sentiment, The Brewers will be starting 3 players in their lineup that are pre-arby in Segura Davis and Gennett. All 3 proved they could play when given the chance but Morris hasn't shown nearly enough at AAA to have warranted a chance yet and I want to see what Rogers does at AAA to. Neither are top prospects and if they play great and earn a shot great, but the Brewers shouldn't decide to not sign someone just cause they have Morris or Rogers. Now whether or not Loney on a 2 or 3 year deal would be a good sign is another debate, but they shouldn't not sign him due to Morris or Rogers

[SoupTown]

Re fiers: according to sabre theory: line drive% and babip is just a fluke random event and will tend to the mean for all pitchers; therefore any sabre guy would not give up fiers for ike

[logan82]

Re fiers: according to sabre theory: line drive% and babip is just a fluke random event and will tend to the mean for all pitchers; therefore any sabre guy would not give up fiers for ike

Not true. Some players will always have a higher BABIP and LD%.

 

Also, Fiers LD% and BABIP were at or lower than career norms in 2013.

 

Then again what kind of conclusion can you or should you draw from 22 innings.

[yoshii8]

I may be alone on this, but I don't think giving up Thornburg for Davis would be that bad of a trade.

[yoshii8]

What about Adam Lind as a possible 1b option? It seems like he wouldn't cost much, and had a nice season last year.

[jerichoholicninja]

Re fiers: according to sabre theory: line drive% and babip is just a fluke random event and will tend to the mean for all pitchers; therefore any sabre guy would not give up fiers for ike

 

Sabres play hockey in Buffalo.

[Warning Track Power]

 

Is it safe to assume now Thornburg will not be part of any Ike trade? If DM were to relent now and deal him, he would sure look bad given the rumors that he has refused to part with Thornburg.

[TURBO]

 

Is it safe to assume now Thornburg will not be part of any Ike trade? If DM were to relent now and deal him, he would sure look bad given the rumors that he has refused to part with Thornburg.

 

 

Actually, I think it is the opposite, I think it is more likely now than ever...

 

[jerichoholicninja]

 

Is it safe to assume now Thornburg will not be part of any Ike trade? If DM were to relent now and deal him, he would sure look bad given the rumors that he has refused to part with Thornburg.

 

 

Actually, I think it is the opposite, I think it is more likely now than ever...

 

 

I was thinking the same thing.

[miggs721]

Gamel to sign a minor league deal with Atlanta, so scratch his name off of a potential return to Mke

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/braves-to-sign-infielder-gamel/

[paul253]

All 3 proved they could play when given the chance but Morris hasn't shown nearly enough at AAA to have warranted a chance yet and I want to see what Rogers does at AAA to. Neither are top prospects and if they play great and earn a shot great, but the Brewers shouldn't decide to not sign someone just cause they have Morris or Rogers. Now whether or not Loney on a 2 or 3 year deal would be a good sign is another debate, but they shouldn't not sign him due to Morris or Rogers

 

That's why I'd be ok taking someone for a year. But what if you sign Loney to a 2 year deal and either Morris or Rogers has a breakout year in Nashville? There is essentially no chance they'd get a legit shot at first base in 2015. Just look at what happened to Taylor Green. Minor league player of the year in Nashville. .300+ average. 20+ home runs. And he was never even given a shot because the Brewers took the shortsighted approach of signing Ramirez thinking he'd be their savior. While he put up decent numbers when healthy, the Brewers were nowhere near contention these past two years with him and his salary is weighing us down right now.

 

Neither Rogers nor Morris is ready right now so go ahead and grab a guy for a year. But whether you like it or not (I sure don't) Morris and Rogers are two of our top position prospects. Milwaukee has got to allow them an opportunity if they play well. If not, then tackle the problem again next year. Loney isn't a long term solution anyway as he'll turn 30 a month into next season.

[TURBO]

FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that the Mets and Brewers are "still talking" about an Ike Davis trade, but Milwaukee is still refusing to part with Tyler Thornburg.

 

Thornburg posted a 2.02 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 66 2/3 frames for the Brewers last season and they plan on letting him compete for a rotation job in spring training. There still seems like a good chance of the two sides working something out, though, as Milwaukee has been linked with Davis more than any other team.

 

Source: Ken Rosenthal on Twitter

[brewcrewdue80]

Yeah Thornburg was the teams #1 Prospect. There's just no way that a benched/sent down Davis can be worth a team's #1 prospect.

 

Send them Pena and be done with it. Would the Mets send away Rafael Montero for Ike Davis? That's the equivalent here between Thornburg and Montero. There's too much to like about Thornburg moving forward to give him up for the potentially complete, remove from roster, terrible Davis can be.

 

Davis is almost at 29% K rate over the last 2 seasons. Which is worse than his first 183 games. He's in his prime years and his K's are getting worse not improving. Such a Red Flag. You wouldn't trade Thornburg for Weeks and that is essentially what you are dealing with. a Weeks like .220BA with .325OB and maybe 20+HRs on a good season. It's ridiculous the Mets are asking for the Brewers former #1 Prospect for him.

[danzig6767]

Just to throw out some key stats:

 

Brewer first basemen were last in the majors with a .206/.259/.370/.629 line last year.

 

As a team, the Brewers were first in the National League with a .267/.316/.420/.736 line against lefties in 1389 ABs. Meanwhile they were 10th in the National League against righties with a .247/.309/.390/.699 line in 4085 ABs.

 

Ike Davis has career lines of .256/.356/.471/.827 against righties and .204/.268/.334/.602 against lefties.

 

I think people are over-emphasizing his troubles against left handers. Last year, the Brewers were SIGNIFICANTLY worse against right handers, whom they face THREE times as often as left handers. Ike is a much needed left-handed bat, entering his age 27 season that addresses an area of need in the offense. To dismiss him because he hits poorly (but about as good as our first basemen did overall last season) against pitchers he'll be facing 1/4th of the time seems silly. Especially since the rest of the team dominates against that same quarter of competition.

 

Obviously, you never want to overpay for a player, but I think he's a good gamble and an obvious upgrade to our team at this point. I'd be thrilled if we can get him for Fiers and content if it's for someone that's slightly harder to stomach.

 

I don't think many here are dead set against trading for Davis so long as the cost isn't someone like Thornburg.

 

That said, if Davis is acquired, it would be terrible planning to not also carry a platoon partner for him given he doesn't just struggle a bit vs lefties, he's atrocious. Davis is an out machine with little power vs lefties and almost any righthanded bat with a pulse would produce better. Smart teams acknowledge when one of their players has a major deficiency and act to mitigate that weakness if possible. Dumb teams just keep trotting out that player even if he has proven he can't do certain things competently at all, thus hurting the team. It would be like using a LOOGY relief pitcher against righthanded hitters as much as lefthanded bats, even if that pitcher's splits say that righthanded hitters crush him.

[danzig6767]

All 3 proved they could play when given the chance but Morris hasn't shown nearly enough at AAA to have warranted a chance yet and I want to see what Rogers does at AAA to. Neither are top prospects and if they play great and earn a shot great, but the Brewers shouldn't decide to not sign someone just cause they have Morris or Rogers. Now whether or not Loney on a 2 or 3 year deal would be a good sign is another debate, but they shouldn't not sign him due to Morris or Rogers

 

That's why I'd be ok taking someone for a year. But what if you sign Loney to a 2 year deal and either Morris or Rogers has a breakout year in Nashville? There is essentially no chance they'd get a legit shot at first base in 2015. Just look at what happened to Taylor Green. Minor league player of the year in Nashville. .300+ average. 20+ home runs. And he was never even given a shot because the Brewers took the shortsighted approach of signing Ramirez thinking he'd be their savior. While he put up decent numbers when healthy, the Brewers were nowhere near contention these past two years with him and his salary is weighing us down right now.

 

Neither Rogers nor Morris is ready right now so go ahead and grab a guy for a year. But whether you like it or not (I sure don't) Morris and Rogers are two of our top position prospects. Milwaukee has got to allow them an opportunity if they play well. If not, then tackle the problem again next year. Loney isn't a long term solution anyway as he'll turn 30 a month into next season.

 

I wouldn't give Loney three years either and it seems like Melvin doesn't want to also given reports that trying to acquire Davis is a higher priority. I'm also with you in not being ready yet to just give up on Morris.

 

When it comes to Rogers though, what reason is there to believe that he's still a legitimate prospect?

 

Besides his constant array of injuries, he's never really improved much as a pitcher in all of his years in the minors. The guy has been a walk machine at pretty much every stop, with only decent, but not great strikeout numbers. He's now 27 and no longer throws in the high 90's. So if he hadn't been a former first round pick, what are the odds that he wouldn't have been released years ago? I'll be near shocked if Rogers ever sticks in the majors, even just as a mediocre relief pitcher.

[fondybrewfan]

I think he was referring to Jason Rogers the 1B not Mark Rogers.

[paul253]

When it comes to Rogers though, what reason is there to believe that he's still a legitimate prospect?

No we are talking about Jason Rogers, the first basemen who was the Brewers minor league player of the league last season. Not the injury plagued Mark Rogers.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Loney is re-signing with the Rays per Olney on twitter. Welcome to Milwaukee Ike Davis.

[fondybrewfan]

At this point of known 1st baseman available it is really Ike Davis or what we already have. Probably not a perfect situation to be in. Come on Doug pull something out of your hat and suprise us all.

[Warning Track Power]

Loney is re-signing with the Rays per Olney on twitter. Welcome to Milwaukee Ike Davis.

Loney gets 3 years $21 million per Ken Rosenthal. YUCK!

 

This is good news for the Brewers on the Ike trade front. Joel Sherman just tweeted its Milwaukee or bust for the Mets and Ike. You have to think that both teams now realize that they are the only ones who have a need and have a surplus. Although the Pirates are still looking for a 1B as well.

 

Ike for Ariel Pena has been my predication all along.