First Base 2014

[JohnBriggs12]

Dunn has posted an OPS of .686 over the last 28 days. Over his last 28 days, Overbay has posted an OPS of .827. As for run producing, Dunn has 1 RBI for every 8 plate appearances. Reynolds and Overbay combined have 1 RBI for every 8.04 plate appearances.

 

Dunn got off to a hot start this year but since May 1st, he's hitting .210/.335/.405. I dare say Reynolds and Overbay can do that and a bit better for a heck of a lot less.

[adambr2]

Dunn has posted an OPS of .686 over the last 28 days. Over his last 28 days, Overbay has posted an OPS of .827. As for run producing, Dunn has 1 RBI for every 8 plate appearances. Reynolds and Overbay combined have 1 RBI for every 8.04 plate appearances.

 

Dunn got off to a hot start this year but since May 1st, he's hitting .210/.335/.405. I dare say Reynolds and Overbay can do that and a bit better for a heck of a lot less.

 

Actually, they can't, because neither one is matching that .740 OPS for the season over the bad stretch that you picked out for Dunn.

 

Every player goes through bad stretches so when you cherry pick time frames, it's pretty easy to make a player look good/bad. He'll probably get hot again and wind up close to his career OPS. We can probably get by with Reynolds and Overbay for the season but I don't know why anyone needs to downplay Dunn so much. Is he worth $15M this season, no. Is he still a good player that can reach base well and hit for power, yes.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Dunn has posted an OPS of .686 over the last 28 days. Over his last 28 days, Overbay has posted an OPS of .827. As for run producing, Dunn has 1 RBI for every 8 plate appearances. Reynolds and Overbay combined have 1 RBI for every 8.04 plate appearances.

 

Dunn got off to a hot start this year but since May 1st, he's hitting .210/.335/.405. I dare say Reynolds and Overbay can do that and a bit better for a heck of a lot less.

 

Actually, they can't, because neither one is matching that .740 OPS for the season over the bad stretch that you picked out for Dunn.

 

Every player goes through bad stretches so when you cherry pick time frames, it's pretty easy to make a player look good/bad. He'll probably get hot again and wind up close to his career OPS. We can probably get by with Reynolds and Overbay for the season but I don't know why anyone needs to downplay Dunn so much. Is he worth $15M this season, no. Is he still a good player that can reach base well and hit for power, yes.

 

I downplay him because his defense is awful, and is a negative value, and needs to be considered, as well as the money he would cost. When you consider defense, he's barely an upgrade over Reynolds at a significant cost increase.

[3and2Fastball]

To me Adam LaRoche would be an ideal type to trade for. High OBP, veteran with playoff experience, LH hitter as an upgrade for Overbay, having a career year doesn't hurt

 

Unfortunately with the Nationals in 1st place they aren't going to get rid of LaRoche in a playoff run.

[adambr2]

Man, going through the 1st basemen in the league, there's just not going to be much available or worth trading for.

 

If you whittle it down to likely sellers, you've got maybe D'Backs, Cubs, Padres, Rockies, Mets, Phillies, Astros, and Rays.

 

The Cubs aren't going to trade Rizzo to us and the D'Backs aren't going to trade Goldschmidt, so that's out. Medica and Loney aren't noticeable upgrades from what we have. The Mets aren't trading Duda after trading Davis. Howard is expensive, aging, and not nearly as productive anymore. Houston has no trade pieces at 1st.

 

That leaves Morneau as probably the best option, but I'm skeptical of Colorado bats.

[Outlander]

Morneau's numbers are better at home but he has played pretty well on the road as well. Even the last few years when he started to decline he was still hitting righties. Don't think the Rockies will be looking to trade him though as he does have a reasonable salary next year,

[igor67]

Not as helpful on the platoon side, but maybe Weeks would be more interested in picking up first base? I do think it appears at this point that it would be easier to find a decent bat among corner OF types, so picking up Overbay's roster spot would still be reasonably valuable.

[reillymcshane]

Unless Reynolds or Overbay is hurt - or really goes in the tank - I don't think the team will make a move at 1B. It's just not the team's style. They'll keep going with the 'guys who got us here' mentality. RRR and Melvin seem to really value clubhouse atmosphere and cohesion. I understand that.

 

If anything, the club will maybe add a relief arm and/or IF/OF depth. But I don't think they'll make a move at 1B.

[nate82]

What would it take to get Mike Napoli from the Red Sox? The Red Sox are currently 8 games back in the AL East and 6 games back for one of the AL Wild Card spots. Would the Red Sox blow up the team and trade Napoli? He does have one more year left on his contract so it would be for the rest of this year and next year. If it would only cost the Brewers a Jungmann/Bradley, Roache, and a someone like Nick Ramirez or Ariel Pena I would definitely do that deal but I think it might take more than that or this might be an overpay with Napoli's injury concerns and his age. I wouldn't trade Nelson, Taylor, or Coulter but everyone else I would at least put them on the table to be traded.

 

I am not sure the Red Sox will do this and this is probably just a pipe dream at this point.

[TooLiveBrew]

What would it take to get Mike Napoli from the Red Sox?

...

 

I am not sure the Red Sox will do this and this is probably just a pipe dream at this point.

You know, this is actually a really good target (that I hadn't thought of). He also played 5 seasons with LAA while Roenicke was a coach there.

 

I think the Sawx would definitely consider shipping out a 32-yo almost-all-bat-1B still owed $16MM for next season... the final season of his current contract.

[Never Outhustled]

What would it take to get Mike Napoli from the Red Sox? The Red Sox are currently 8 games back in the AL East and 6 games back for one of the AL Wild Card spots. Would the Red Sox blow up the team and trade Napoli? He does have one more year left on his contract so it would be for the rest of this year and next year. If it would only cost the Brewers a Jungmann/Bradley, Roache, and a someone like Nick Ramirez or Ariel Pena I would definitely do that deal but I think it might take more than that or this might be an overpay with Napoli's injury concerns and his age. I wouldn't trade Nelson, Taylor, or Coulter but everyone else I would at least put them on the table to be traded.

 

I am not sure the Red Sox will do this and this is probably just a pipe dream at this point.

 

I like the line of thinking, but how about a different Red Sox 1B? I'm thinking 27 year lefty swinging Mike Carp. Despite a terrible start to the year like every Sox player, he sports a career 766 OPS and had a breakout 885 last year at age 26. He's presently on a rehab assignment but has a month to prove he's back.

 

He also ads value by being able to play both corner OF spots. He is inexpensive and controllable, but is an unnecessary luxury for Boston with the emergence of the even more versatile Brock Holt.

[nate82]

 

I like the line of thinking, but how about a different Red Sox 1B? I'm thinking 27 year lefty swinging Mike Carp. Despite a terrible start to the year like every Sox player, he sports a career 766 OPS and had a breakout 885 last year at age 26. He's presently on a rehab assignment but has a month to prove he's back.

 

He also ads value by being able to play both corner OF spots. He is inexpensive and controllable, but is an unnecessary luxury for Boston with the emergence of the even more versatile Brock Holt.

 

The Red Sox are not going to trade Carp as he is in their long term plans. It would take more to get him than it would take to get Napoli.

[Never Outhustled]

 

I like the line of thinking, but how about a different Red Sox 1B? I'm thinking 27 year lefty swinging Mike Carp. Despite a terrible start to the year like every Sox player, he sports a career 766 OPS and had a breakout 885 last year at age 26. He's presently on a rehab assignment but has a month to prove he's back.

 

He also ads value by being able to play both corner OF spots. He is inexpensive and controllable, but is an unnecessary luxury for Boston with the emergence of the even more versatile Brock Holt.

 

The Red Sox are not going to trade Carp as he is in their long term plans. It would take more to get him than it would take to get Napoli.

 

What long term plans is he in? To be the back-up to back-up Brock Holt?

[nate82]

 

I like the line of thinking, but how about a different Red Sox 1B? I'm thinking 27 year lefty swinging Mike Carp. Despite a terrible start to the year like every Sox player, he sports a career 766 OPS and had a breakout 885 last year at age 26. He's presently on a rehab assignment but has a month to prove he's back.

 

He also ads value by being able to play both corner OF spots. He is inexpensive and controllable, but is an unnecessary luxury for Boston with the emergence of the even more versatile Brock Holt.

 

The Red Sox are not going to trade Carp as he is in their long term plans. It would take more to get him than it would take to get Napoli.

 

What long term plans is he in? To be the back-up to back-up Brock Holt?

 

Brock Holt is not a mainstay in Boston as I don't believe Holt is going to keep his hot streak up at best you are looking at a .700 OPS player in Holt which is about the same as Carp. The Red Sox had plenty of opportunities to trade Carp in the off season and before the season they did not because he is in their long term plans. Once Napoli leaves either this year or after next season the Red Sox really do not have many options at 1B thus they need Carp and Holt.

 

In order for the Red Sox to listen on a trade for Carp you are looking at giving up a player like Nelson which is an extreme overpay. The Red Sox are not going to trade Carp.

[Never Outhustled]

So your saying the Boston Red Sox are locked in to starting a 29 year old Mike Carp in 2 years? No free agent options, no prospects, it's Mike Carp or bust? I like Carp, but as a platoon option. I'm guessing Carp won't get the slightest consideration from the Sox as their starting 1B in 2016. If Carp was this good, but 24 then sure, but theyre not earmarking a spot 2 years away for a 27 year old.

[nate82]

So your saying the Boston Red Sox are locked in to starting a 29 year old Mike Carp in 2 years? No free agent options, no prospects, it's Mike Carp or bust? I like Carp, but as a platoon option. I'm guessing Carp won't get the slightest consideration from the Sox as their starting 1B in 2016. If Carp was this good, but 24 then sure, but theyre not earmarking a spot 2 years away for a 27 year old.

 

The Red Sox haven't been going big in free agency the past few years. In 2016 it really is Carp and probably for next year it is also Carp so yes he is in their plans for the future. The Red Sox don't have a 1B prospect better than Carp. The Red Sox also love his versatility that he brings so he will play in the OF also.

 

Brock Holt is also 26 years old right now so he isn't much of an option either and his current hot streak is going to end and he will be around a 700 OPS player nothing great but good as a back up OF or infielder.

 

The Red Sox are not going to give up Carp for anything less than what it would take to get Napoli. Even with the year that Carp is having the Red Sox are just not going to sell low on him. You are going to have to pay to get Carp and the amount that you will have to pay for the Red Sox to give him up is just way too much for what you are getting in return.

 

If anything you will be able to talk the Red Sox down in a major prospect Bradley or Jungmann and a B-/C+ type prospect is probably all that it would take if the Brewers would take on all of Napoli's salary. In contrast it is going to take a Nelson+ to get Carp. Are you willing to give up Nelson+ just to get Carp? I just do not see the Red Sox giving up Carp who is a very cheap alternative. At most the Red Sox are going to have to pay Carp $3m next year which is not cheap but that is still a rather good value for the Red Sox for the Brewers that is a non tender candidate.

 

Napoli for 1.5 years > Carp for one year and giving up a major prospect.

[Never Outhustled]

So your saying the Boston Red Sox are locked in to starting a 29 year old Mike Carp in 2 years? No free agent options, no prospects, it's Mike Carp or bust? I like Carp, but as a platoon option. I'm guessing Carp won't get the slightest consideration from the Sox as their starting 1B in 2016. If Carp was this good, but 24 then sure, but theyre not earmarking a spot 2 years away for a 27 year old.

 

The Red Sox haven't been going big in free agency the past few years. In 2016 it really is Carp and probably for next year it is also Carp so yes he is in their plans for the future. The Red Sox don't have a 1B prospect better than Carp. The Red Sox also love his versatility that he brings so he will play in the OF also.

 

Brock Holt is also 26 years old right now so he isn't much of an option either and his current hot streak is going to end and he will be around a 700 OPS player nothing great but good as a back up OF or infielder.

 

The Red Sox are not going to give up Carp for anything less than what it would take to get Napoli. Even with the year that Carp is having the Red Sox are just not going to sell low on him. You are going to have to pay to get Carp and the amount that you will have to pay for the Red Sox to give him up is just way too much for what you are getting in return.

 

If anything you will be able to talk the Red Sox down in a major prospect Bradley or Jungmann and a B-/C+ type prospect is probably all that it would take if the Brewers would take on all of Napoli's salary. In contrast it is going to take a Nelson+ to get Carp. Are you willing to give up Nelson+ just to get Carp? I just do not see the Red Sox giving up Carp who is a very cheap alternative. At most the Red Sox are going to have to pay Carp $3m next year which is not cheap but that is still a rather good value for the Red Sox for the Brewers that is a non tender candidate.

 

Napoli for 1.5 years > Carp for one year and giving up a major prospect.

 

You think the Sox are going to slash payroll after Napoli is gone? They'll hit free agency when they have a need to fill.

 

Carp's value is exactly what 27 year old platoon players or back-ups command.

 

Napoli has little value because of his bloated salary and poor defense. He's no longer an impact hitter.

[3and2Fastball]

Napoli has little value because of his bloated salary and poor defense. He's no longer an impact hitter.

 

He would still be a significant upgrade over Overbay/Reynolds

[endaround]

Napoli is an impact hitter (.274/.388/.447) and he's a decent 1B. He's on pace to be worth about 4 wins this year. The Sox are not going to dump him for salary reasons especially given the dearth of 1B out there. And they aren't going to dump Napoli for Mike Carp given that they signed Napoli even after Carp's big year. They know that Carp projects as a bench/platoon guy.

[pacopete4]

Lyle has been pretty good in the past month. .310 BA/.396 OBP/.452 SLG for a .848 OPS with smacking in 9 RBI's and 1 HR. If he continues that, I doubt we'll make a move because it just doesn't make sense to.

 

Reynolds has been the let down over the past month. His line of .243 BA/.384 OBP/.329 SLG for an .712 OPS and only 6 RBI's with only 1 HR. If he's not going to hit for a high average then when he does hit it, he needs to make a dent wit his slugging. Still nice to see him getting on base though. Hopefully we are just in a lull and he'll get hot when others cool down. That's what great teams do.

[3and2Fastball]

Lyle has been pretty good in the past month. .310 BA/.396 OBP/.452 SLG for a .848 OPS with smacking in 9 RBI's and 1 HR. If he continues that, I doubt we'll make a move because it just doesn't make sense to.

 

Reynolds has been the let down over the past month. His line of .243 BA/.384 OBP/.329 SLG for an .712 OPS and only 6 RBI's with only 1 HR. If he's not going to hit for a high average then when he does hit it, he needs to make a dent wit his slugging. Still nice to see him getting on base though. Hopefully we are just in a lull and he'll get hot when others cool down. That's what great teams do.

 

Beware of small sample statistics. Let us hope that Melvin/Ash/Roenicke recognize that 1B needs to be upgraded for the stretch run, despite whateer someone is hitting over the course of 20 games or whatever.

[Bnowell4evr]

Overbay has been playing much better lately. He's posting a respectable .338 OBP against RHP now.

[monty57]

Lyle has been pretty good in the past month. .310 BA/.396 OBP/.452 SLG for a .848 OPS with smacking in 9 RBI's and 1 HR. If he continues that, I doubt we'll make a move because it just doesn't make sense to.

 

Reynolds has been the let down over the past month. His line of .243 BA/.384 OBP/.329 SLG for an .712 OPS and only 6 RBI's with only 1 HR. If he's not going to hit for a high average then when he does hit it, he needs to make a dent wit his slugging. Still nice to see him getting on base though. Hopefully we are just in a lull and he'll get hot when others cool down. That's what great teams do.

 

Beware of small sample statistics. Let us hope that Melvin/Ash/Roenicke recognize that 1B needs to be upgraded for the stretch run, despite whateer someone is hitting over the course of 20 games or whatever.

 

Agree. About a month ago, posters were looking to trade Davis for an upgrade at LF, and demote Gennett to give Weeks the full-time 2B job.

[JohnBriggs12]

Yes, beware of small sample statistics, but actually Overbay's been making solid contact most of the year. It's not like he's lucking into anything. His line drive percentage is 25% and that's well above league average.

 

Now he faded last year with the Yankees, and that's something to consider but given that his playing time this year has been more sporadic, it's also arguable that he'll be able to stay fresh enough to keep hitting. Overbay's best isn't great, but it's likely good enough at this point at least for the rest of this year.

 

By the way, Boston is a long, long way from throwing in the towel and becoming sellers. That division is there for the taking and Boston isn't out of it by any means.

[SRB]

I think it's time we give Melvin some credit for being a good evaluator of horrible players.

 

Lyle Overbay = -0.2 fWAR, 199 PA (Bad)

Corey Hart = -0.6 fWAR, 187 PA (Worse)

Kendrys Morales = -0.8 fWAR, 138 PA (Worst)

 

Ok, so he missed on Juan Francisco, but still...