First Base 2014

[brewcrewdue80]

So, nobody cares about Yonder Alonso? MLBTR just mentioned theyre a team that should be thinking to sell. Let's face it, San Fran has jumped out to a big lead, and meanwhile, the Dodgers? I'm waiting for them to win 25 of 30 games. That roster is just too strong with their pitching not to just go on a long run of winning.

As mentioned he's an answer for beyond this season and is LH at the plate. He's been close to a 2WAR 1b and I believe he can improve his number batting in the Central/MP to where he's a 3WAR 1b at the minimum.

[Jose Cardenal1]

No Alonso doesn't excite me. His 2.0 WAR is his cummulative number over 5 years (383 games) not his per year contribution.

 

Honestly I think Hunter Morris could put up similar numbers.

[brewcrewdue80]

No, Hunter couldn't. That's the thing I like about Alonso is he's career 15.4% K Rate. Morris projects to be a 25%+K rate batter. Alonso also has an 8.7% walk rate. I think numbers like that would indicate an ability for Alonso to bat better than he has. He puts the ball in play. His numbers this season are the perfect time to cash in on a struggling former top prospect who's actually in his prime age. Buy Low! Change of scenery, change of surroundings. If it works out great we've solved our 1b for the next 3 years.

[Outlander]

I don't think that type of guy adds much value this year. He could be a potential option as an everyday player in the future because he doesn't have a huge gap in splits. Even in the minors his splits against righties wasn't that great. Would rather just stick with Reynolds and go after a better left handed hitter against righties.

[Warning Track Power]

I don't think that type of guy adds much value this year. He could be a potential option as an everyday player in the future because he doesn't have a huge gap in splits. Even in the minors his splits against righties wasn't that great. Would rather just stick with Reynolds and go after a better left handed hitter against righties.

Huh? In his MLB career, 1001 PAs against RHP and has the following line:

.279/.344/.405, 21 HR, 107 RBI.

 

By no means is that world beating, but it represents a significant upgrade at 1B. Additionally, I think his power statistics have been seriously stunted by Petco Park

 

Yonder Alonso would definitely be a guy I would be interested in, especially as a buy low candidate right now. He profiles as a high AVG (.280), high OBP (.350) player who may not hit 25-30 HR annually, but could hit 15-22 and give you 40-50 doubles. I am thinking Lyle Overbay circa 2004-2005.

 

I would very much welcome an Alonso deal.

[Jose Cardenal1]

When I say that I think Morris could put up similar numbers I was looking at OPS. I don't really care how each player gets there in terms of K% or BB%, BAIP, LD% P/PA and all that other stuff. Just tell me what it adds up to and for me that is OPS. Now is Alonso underperforming his potential, yeah maybe and I agree with you that he could be a buy low sleeper for 1b. But for this year right now the Brewers need a LH power bat that can play 1b. Alonso only covers two of those and isn't much of a short-term upgrade from Overbay.

 

Put it another way. Aquiring Alonso is the kind of move you make in the offseason to compete in ST or during the season if ther Brewers were 5-10 games under .500 and were looking to see what you may have for next year. Thankfully that isn't where the Brewers are this year. They need to "go for it" and not neccessarily try to find a guy to be a long term answer.

[Outlander]

I don't think that type of guy adds much value this year. He could be a potential option as an everyday player in the future because he doesn't have a huge gap in splits. Even in the minors his splits against righties wasn't that great. Would rather just stick with Reynolds and go after a better left handed hitter against righties.

Huh? In his MLB career, 1001 PAs against RHP and has the following line:

.279/.344/.405, 21 HR, 107 RBI.

Yeah, that isn't that great. There are plenty of left handers that crush right handed pitching. The previously mentioned Morris is better.

[HiAndTight]

When I say that I think Morris could put up similar numbers I was looking at OPS. I don't really care how each player gets there in terms of K% or BB%, BAIP, LD% P/PA and all that other stuff. Just tell me what it adds up to and for me that is OPS. Now is Alonso underperforming his potential, yeah maybe and I agree with you that he could be a buy low sleeper for 1b. But for this year right now the Brewers need a LH power bat that can play 1b. Alonso only covers two of those and isn't much of a short-term upgrade from Overbay.

 

Put it another way. Aquiring Alonso is the kind of move you make in the offseason to compete in ST or during the season if ther Brewers were 5-10 games under .500 and were looking to see what you may have for next year. Thankfully that isn't where the Brewers are this year. They need to "go for it" and not neccessarily try to find a guy to be a long term answer.

 

 

I think it makes a big difference in how you get to OPS. I'd much rather take a .280/.350/400 line, particularly in this lineup over a Mark Reynolds type .220/.290/.450 type line.

No, Hunter couldn't.

 

Really? You don't think Morris COULD put up a WAR of 2.3 in roughly 400 games? Of course he could. Alonso hasn't come close to living up to his potential. You would trade for him because you could reasonably expect him to at least perform better than Overbay, play good defense and hit for a decent average, but I don't know how you come to the conclusion that Morris couldn't provide the value over 400 games that Alonso has through his first 400.

 

I really don't care about strikeouts either. Putting the ball in play is overrated. If he puts the ball in play but gets out, who cares?

 

 

So I like Alonso as a cheap target who I think has upside he has yet to show, but that would be the only reason to target him. If you believe he can do better than he's already done. Otherwise just go with Morris.

[igor67]

I rather liked the note that Zarraga had been getting some starts at first base. I don't know how exactly to project him at this point, but if he hits even close to .300 with the gap power and solid eye he's as attractive as any other cheap option that's been tossed around.

[brewcrewdue80]

Really? You don't think Morris COULD put up a WAR of 2.3 in roughly 400 games? Of course he could. Alonso hasn't come close to living up to his potential. You would trade for him because you could reasonably expect him to at least perform better than Overbay, play good defense and hit for a decent average, but I don't know how you come to the conclusion that Morris couldn't provide the value over 400 games that Alonso has through his first 400.

 

Sorry I go off of BRef. Has Alonso as 1.5WAR for a full season of games in 2012. And 1.3 WAR in 2013 in 97games. So I projected to 162games to be a pace around 2WAR

Listing him at .5WAR in this awful offensive season thus far this year would make him on pace for around 1.3WAR.

 

Can Morris get to that 1.5WAR in a season? Sure maybe. But what would you rather have moving forward? Alonso who you know has 1.5WAR minimum in him with a big change of scenery positive potential having played in SD for his career, or Morris who you hope his K rate isn't ridiculous that he makes enough power contact to make up for that K Rate? The organization certainly has no intentions to promote Morris based on failing to do so already and not doing so last September. So I can just assume Morris is a zero War ML player stuck forever in AAA until he's traded or waived and winds up playing for another ballclub. Likely Toronto where he goes off for 40HRs a year for 4 seasons

 

The whole purpose of pursuing Alonso is to not only improve on Overbay but to secure a 1b moving forward for 2015 and beyond. Let's stop this 2 year run of piecing together a patchwork 1b and put in somebody you can use everyday.(You can Platoon him with Lucroy vs. tougher Lefties if necessary)

 

Question would be would you trade Morris for Alonso?

[HiAndTight]

Really? You don't think Morris COULD put up a WAR of 2.3 in roughly 400 games? Of course he could. Alonso hasn't come close to living up to his potential. You would trade for him because you could reasonably expect him to at least perform better than Overbay, play good defense and hit for a decent average, but I don't know how you come to the conclusion that Morris couldn't provide the value over 400 games that Alonso has through his first 400.

 

Sorry I go off of BRef. Has Alonso as 1.5WAR for a full season of games in 2012. And 1.3 WAR in 2013 in 97games. So I projected to 162games to be a pace around 2WAR

Listing him at .5WAR in this awful offensive season thus far this year would make him on pace for around 1.3WAR.

 

Can Morris get to that 1.5WAR in a season? Sure maybe. But what would you rather have moving forward? Alonso who you know has 1.5WAR minimum in him with a big change of scenery positive potential having played in SD for his career, or Morris who you hope his K rate isn't ridiculous that he makes enough power contact to make up for that K Rate? The organization certainly has no intentions to promote Morris based on failing to do so already and not doing so last September. So I can just assume Morris is a zero War ML player stuck forever in AAA until he's traded or waived and winds up playing for another ballclub. Likely Toronto where he goes off for 40HRs a year for 4 seasons

 

The whole purpose of pursuing Alonso is to not only improve on Overbay but to secure a 1b moving forward for 2015 and beyond. Let's stop this 2 year run of piecing together a patchwork 1b and put in somebody you can use everyday.(You can Platoon him with Lucroy vs. tougher Lefties if necessary)

 

Question would be would you trade Morris for Alonso?

 

No, you DON'T know that Alonso has a 1.5 WAR minimum(using bbref). You're hoping he does as he's never once surpassed it, even using the more generous ranking.

 

Second, Morris is 25 years old. The idea that the organization has absolutely no intention of promoting him is just ludicrous. It seems as though when the Brewers don't operate on the schedule fans on here want, they come up with these grand and generalized statements of fact. Morris was 24 last year, and while he put up an OPS of .766, he struggled a bit as compared to his big year in AA. I'm not going to jump to any conclusions about the course of his entire career based on the fact that he wasn't called up last year. At what point did we start to decide that if a player doesn't make the big league roster by the age of 22 or 23 we start assuming he will never be given a chance and will play for another organization?

 

Third, I don't care about K's nearly as much as you do. Morris is striking out about 20 pct of the time in AAA. Gomez strikes out 25 pct of the time. Braun 18 pct for his career(one of the best hitters in the game). Mark Reynolds who's provided 1.3 WAR thus far has struck out over 32 pct of the time this year. Davis 24 pct of the time...I don't care how they make their outs.

 

Fourth, would I trade Morris for Alonso? Probably. I like taking guys who were highly touted and talented players and giving them another chance. Alonso would fit that bill. I would prefer to see either over Overbay and believe Morris could be an upgrade over Overbay and that Alonso MIGHT be able to figure it out with a chance of scenery. But just for a bit of perspective, Overbay has a higher OPS this year so far than Alonso.

 

 

And before you argue that is a result of playing in Petco, his OPS away from home is a paltry .552.

 

So to the point I disagreed with without the rest confusing the issue, I fail to see how you can state with any degree of certainty that Morris could not provide the same type of production or better production right now.

[Jose Cardenal1]

brewcrewdue80, yeah I would trade Morris for Alonso but that isn't the point. The Brewers are in a position to go for it this year. When a team is in this position you attempt to shore up your weaknesses with mid-season aquisitions (ideally without sacrificing the future). The primary concern should not be to trade for a guy who is having a bad year but may turn it around and be your 1b of the future. If your team is looking for the playoffs or at least a playoff race you trade for guys who are at least having a good year now. You don't gamble on a player like Alonso hoping that he will turn it around this year. My point with Morris was that you might as well just go with him for this year given Alonso's bad year so far (and really he has never lived up to his prospect status).

 

brewcrewdue the differnce between you and I is that you are way more focused on filling 1b long term while I am looking for a boost this year.

[Outlander]

brewcrewdue the differnce between you and I is that you are way more focused on filling 1b long term while I am looking for a boost this year.

That is perfectly said, a trade for a guy like Alonso is made last year where they play him every day the rest of the year. If they make a move for a left handed hitting first baseman or bench it is to improve their chances this year to help them go deep in the playoffs.

[DuWayne Steurer]

June 21, and both our 1B are OPS-ing below .700 now.

[adambr2]

Adam Dunn? Wonder if the White Sox would just be willing to dump salary if they fall out of contention in the next few weeks and trade him for next to nothing if we take on his remaining salary this year.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Adam Dunn? Wonder if the White Sox would just be willing to dump salary if they fall out of contention in the next few weeks and trade him for next to nothing if we take on his remaining salary this year.

 

 

I know this forum loves Dunn, but I'd rather not spend 7.5 mil on a guy like him. Any positive value he provides is instantly offset by his defense. If we're going to spend that kind of money for half a season, I'd prefer it to be on a very clear upgrade, not a marginal (at best) upgrade.

[adambr2]

To me, Dunn over Overbay isn't a marginal upgrade.

 

Its not my plan A but there's not a ton out there. Morales and Ike are gone/traded.

[DuWayne Steurer]

To me, Dunn over Overbay isn't a marginal upgrade.

 

Its not my plan A but there's not a ton out there. Morales and Ike are gone/traded.

 

 

Dunn over Overbay+Reynolds would be marginal. And I can't imagine paying 7.5 mil (half a year of Dunn) for a platoon guy, especially when you consider that historically, Reynolds doesn't have big platoon splits. If anything, this year, Reynolds numbers vs lefties (in a small sample) are worse than his numbers vs. righties.

[superfly]

If we wanted to spend 7.5 million on somebody for a half year we should have done it on Morales. Time to put the Dunn convo to bed IMO unless the White Sox eat his salary for us like the Cubs did for the Yanks with Soriano last year.

[adambr2]

If we put the Dunn convo to bed we might as well put any potential 1B to bed and accept the fact that we are just going to be stuck with a Reynolds/Overbay platoon for the entire season, unless Morris heats up significantly. His .734 OPS in the PCL this year is pretty underwhelming.

[igor67]

I'm partial to the idea of trying to get a bat at another position, and move someone to first. With a solid 3rd basemen you could move Aramis over to first. If you went after an OFer maybe they'd be willing to move or Braun?

[superfly]

If we put the Dunn convo to bed we might as well put any potential 1B to bed and accept the fact that we are just going to be stuck with a Reynolds/Overbay platoon for the entire season, unless Morris heats up significantly. His .734 OPS in the PCL this year is pretty underwhelming.

 

 

Forgive me, but I don't see how Adam Dunn is any better than Mark Reynolds. The name Adam Dunn is alot of the reason people keep talking about him, not his talent. He hasn't been worth anything for years...just a strikeout machine that crushes a meatball once in awhile. Give or take a few digits each season, Dunn and Reynolds slash's are nearly identical...except Reynolds is making millions less. Yes, he is a bit better than Overbay, but do we need to take that salary on for a guy that is providing the same WAR ?

 

I think we should have signed Justin Morneau is what we should have done (even before seeing what he's doing this season). Maybe if the Rockies continue to cliffdive they will unload him or Cuddy later in the season. Cuddy could probably be had for very little right now since hes on the 60 day DL and will not help save their season. He'd be good 1B and OF depth and his contract expires after the season.

[BallFour]

Honestly been scouring teams that look to be clearly out of it and I just don't see a clear cut upgrade out there. If the front office didn't keep Juan Francisco over Lyle Overbay or sign Kendrys Morales I don't see how they give up anything of value for Adam Dunn. As it seems they are obsessed with the glove at 1B.

 

Too me this just shows how good this team is because 1B is really the only clear cut regular playing time weakness besides the bench. Bullpen should be fine when Thornburg and Henderson come back and the rotation is pretty solid besides Marco but we probably have an internal upgrade anyway in Nelson or Fiers.

 

A good target would be Ben Zobrist who can pretty much play anywhere when needed. Problem is not having a great year and will probably be highly coveted because of his versatility. 10 team playoff sure throws off the economics of the trade deadline less supply and more demand.

[brewmann04]

Todd Rosiak on his chat gave me the impression that 1st base position is not going to be made at the trade deadline.

[adambr2]

If we put the Dunn convo to bed we might as well put any potential 1B to bed and accept the fact that we are just going to be stuck with a Reynolds/Overbay platoon for the entire season, unless Morris heats up significantly. His .734 OPS in the PCL this year is pretty underwhelming.

 

 

Forgive me, but I don't see how Adam Dunn is any better than Mark Reynolds. The name Adam Dunn is alot of the reason people keep talking about him, not his talent. He hasn't been worth anything for years...just a strikeout machine that crushes a meatball once in awhile. Give or take a few digits each season, Dunn and Reynolds slash's are nearly identical...except Reynolds is making millions less. Yes, he is a bit better than Overbay, but do we need to take that salary on for a guy that is providing the same WAR ?

 

I think we should have signed Justin Morneau is what we should have done (even before seeing what he's doing this season). Maybe if the Rockies continue to cliffdive they will unload him or Cuddy later in the season. Cuddy could probably be had for very little right now since hes on the 60 day DL and will not help save their season. He'd be good 1B and OF depth and his contract expires after the season.

 

Adam Dunn is better than Mark Reynolds because he is much better at getting on base. Other than that, yes they are very similar in the HR's and strikeouts. Saying Dunn is a strikeout machine that just crushes a meatball once in awhile is a little unfair. Other than his aberration season of 2011, he's a perennial threat every year to hit 40 HR's and get on base at a .350 clip. He has a .379 OBP and .873 OPS against RHP this year. That's pretty good.

 

Trouble is that Reynolds really isn't much of a platoon guy. His career splits vs. RHP and LHP aren't dramatic at all.