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First Base 2014


yoshii8
Since we decided for whatever reason that Overbay was a better keeper than Francisco, I doubt that there is a good long-term solution out there for us right now. Take what you can get for a reasonable upgrade for 2014 to help us play October baseball this year and then re-evaluate the position in the offseason.

 

Exactly. That is why I brought up Cuddyer and LaRoche. There isn't going to be any fix out there beyond this year. Need to go for it. Money isn't an issue.

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I am a little worried that they will have the mentality that "We don't need to change anything, we are in 1st".

 

Hoping not as that would be a mistaken train of thought on their part. Your competition is constantly looking for ways to improve and you'll have to do the same to stay at the top.

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It is terribly disappointing that all the first baseman in the minors are kind of 'not great'. I think Denison had a high upside, but he is now out for the year, so he can be a bolter for next year. Morris, Rogers, Ramirez, etc just seem like they have no high upside.

 

So, then one thinks.... Braun to first... and you scour for on the horizon impact right fielders in our minors... nope.

 

So, then one thinks.... maybe there is a minors third baseman around... nope.

 

Thank God for Mark Reynolds, hey!

 

Somewhere a solution exists. But darned if I can see it.

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Can someone please tell me what's wrong with Adam LaRoche? Career .340 OBP & .815 OPS (roughly what he's averaged since the beginning of 2012) and a plus defender at 1B.

 

With Gio Gonzalez out indefinitely with shoulder problems and only one game out of first place, maybe WSN is in the market for pitching? WSN trades LaRoche, moves Zimmerman to 1B, needs a 2B...

 

LaRoche to MIL for Estrada & Weeks?

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Can someone please tell me what's wrong with Adam LaRoche? Career .340 OBP & .815 OPS (roughly what he's averaged since the beginning of 2012) and a plus defender at 1B.

 

With Gio Gonzalez out indefinitely with shoulder problems and only one game out of first place, maybe WSN is in the market for pitching? WSN trades LaRoche, moves Zimmerman to 1B, needs a 2B...

 

LaRoche to MIL for Estrada & Weeks?

 

I like the LaRoche idea, just not giving up Weeks for him, unless Washington is eating the salary and we have a plan to use it for bench depth elsewhere.

 

Like Weeks or not he is by far our best bench player right now and with this move we get deeper at 1st for sure but are left with just Fulu or Herrera as a backup at 2B.

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Can't see the Nats trading LaRoche for Estrada and Weeks. Weeks contract alone would be a show stopper, and who do we have on our bench once he is gone? I don't think any team is desperate enough for Estrada. I think to get LaRoche it would have to be for Yo or Nelson.
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I mentioned this in the Estrada thread. But what of Yonder Alonso? He has team control. He's not what Ike Davis concerns were with a 30+% K rate. He's actually under 15% K rate. Yet he has a .213BA. If we aren't going to give Morris a shot, maybe we could trade Morris plus I don't know, any number of Pitchers to net Alonso. For whatever reason the Padre bats just blow this year and looking at attempting to buy low on a guy who's 27 that batting in San Diego vs. Milw I think could mean .100pts in OPS making him an .820OPS 1b. Left handed bat at 1b for another 4years? Jungmann and Morris?
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Why not get Yasmani Grandal? He's fallen out of favor in SD and looked like a legit pro for quite awhile after he came up. Pretty sure they played him at 1B a few times this year. We could phase Lucroy out at C over time and let him solve our 1B problem. Grandal was decent behind the plate in the minors and maintained his slash all the way up the ladder.
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As long as Ramirez is healthy, I don't think they'll make a move for a 1B. Reynolds and Overbay combo has been quite productive. Overbay's actually been a bit unlucky. His LD% is a solid 25%, which is considerably better than league average. But his BABIP is only .266. Nobody is more surprised than I am but it's one of those times I'm happy to be wrong. Playing Overbay 3 days a week might be the way to maximize his ability at age 37.

 

If Morris gets hot, and Overbay slows down, then I think they'll make that move. But that's a way off. There is no sign of either right now. I don't see a rental that makes sense right now. Dunn?? Forget it. Even a partial season rental is expensive and they won't make a move that will damage their defense. Besides they have the RH version of Dunn already.

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Yeah Dunn. The guy with an 846 OPS. They guy who no matter how low his average goes will always take alot of walks and hit HR's (yes your right the mirror image of Mark Reynolds). A guy who won't cost much in terms of prospects. A guy who you are not tied to past this season. Most importantly for the Brewers, a middle of the order guy who bats LH.

 

Listen there are plenty of guys I would rather have at 1b, but you have to be realistic about who will be available and the Brewers really need a LH power bat.

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Yeah Dunn. The guy with an 846 OPS. They guy who no matter how low his average goes will always take alot of walks and hit HR's (yes your right the mirror image of Mark Reynolds). A guy who won't cost much in terms of prospects. A guy who you are not tied to past this season. Most importantly for the Brewers, a middle of the order guy who bats LH.

 

Listen there are plenty of guys I would rather have at 1b, but you have to be realistic about who will be available and the Brewers really need a LH power bat.

Dunn really does fit rather well. He'd cost next to nothing (the Sox would even pick up a lot of the remaining salary), his LH power bat would play well on this team, there's no long term commitment, and you're replacing a bad hitter in Overbay.

 

The one thing that doesn't fit well is Dunn's defense. Even at 1B he's pretty bad (although I haven't seen him play there in a couple of years - perhaps he's better). One reason the Crew didn't want Morales was the perception that he would be a severe liability in the field. The same was true for Francisco.

 

The good thing about Dunn is that you aren't required to pull the trigger on a trade any time soon. He's the kind of guy that will get through waivers in August due to his high salary. Of course, that means we have to stay with Overbay longer. But the longer we stick it out, the more teams fall out of contention and put guys on the trading block.

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A half a year of Dunn will cost you $7.5 million. Anyone really think he's worth that? Reynolds has more HR this year. They are basically the same player offensively save a few more walks for Dunn but Reynolds is better defensively and not the base clogger Dunn is.
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I'd expect Dunn to be somewhat more productive at the plate. Just looking at what they've done from 2012 - 2014

 

Dunn: .215/.333/.458/.791

Reynolds: .219/.316/.416/.732

 

That said, given his defensive issues (even compared to Reynolds who I think has looked surprisingly good defensively at 1B), I'm not sure I see any value here unless the White Sox picked up almost all of his contract.

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As for the $7.5 some should get picked up by the White Sox or covered by sending them Overbay and/or Gorzelany as part of the trade.

 

Why would anyone hate hitting at Miller Park? Seems pretty hitter friendly, especially to LH's.

 

Dunn is also hitting at a 910 OPS against Righties. (vs. 644 OPS against righties for Overbay). More than makes up for worse defense.

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Yeah, they're pretty much the same player. The only difference is Dunn's .370 OBP and Reynolds' .290 OBP. Totally the same!

 

But going forward, what should be expected out of Adam Dunn? I'm inclined to believe he projects to be closer to his 2012-13 production levels than his 2014 level.

 

However, a Dunn/Reynolds platoon would be pretty productive I'd imagine. Reynolds career platoon split LHP/RHP (wRC+) is 119/103, while Dunn's is 103/132. Plus, swapping Overbay out for the platoon partner would make for a nice late-game PH option. It's really just a matter of cost though, and I have no clue what the market for a guy like Adam Dunn is right now.

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A half a year of Dunn will cost you $7.5 million. Anyone really think he's worth that?

 

Yes. Well, close. White Sox will probably eat a lot of it anyway.

 

Reynolds has more HR this year.

 

As he does compared almost every player in baseball. Reynolds hits a lot of HR's.

 

They are basically the same player offensively save a few more walks for Dunn but Reynolds is better defensively and not the base clogger Dunn is.

 

Dunn's career OBP compared to Reynolds suggest more than just a few walks.

 

I hope "base clogger" does not imply that Dunn's ability to get on base is a bad thing. Even if he is a worse base runner, which there isn't a major difference, ability to get on base is always a good thing.

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