First Base 2014

[superfly]

If you sign Morales you can move Reynolds into more of a utility role (1B/3B whoever needs a day off), and UPgrade the bench without looking outside the organization or making trades. I like Reynolds' bombs as much as anyone but there's a reason that Cleveland...Baltimore....New York gave up on him, he'll come back to earth.

[brewmann04]

I offer him no more than 2 years at this point.

[dacbrewers]

Speaking of First Base...why didn't the Brewers make a run at Michael Morse before the Giants signed him?

[HiAndTight]

Speaking of First Base...why didn't the Brewers make a run at Michael Morse before the Giants signed him?

 

 

He'd sure look good now. So would have Juan Francisco. But he was hurt last year I believe and had a pretty bad year with an OPS of like 690 or something. I thought he would have been a nice guy to take a flier on(one that's paying off at the moment) but for 6 million dollars? That was a little steep. His career splits are nearly identical with an .820 and .816 OPS vs RH/LH pitchers respectively.

 

I don't like the idea of signing Morales for that long. Two years with maybe a vesting or buyout type of option for a third year would be the max i'd want the Brewers to go. He'll be 31 in a few weeks and not an athletic guy, i worry he could start declining in a year or two. So i want no part of him getting four years.

 

I would be really hard pressed to give him a 2nd year if it were up to me, MUCH-MUCH less a 4 year deal. And for what? 40-50 million dollars? I don't see any possible way that ends up working out well for the Brewers.

 

Give him a 1 year deal for 8-10 million. If he doesn't take it, then try and get by on what we have or a trade later on in the season. I'm also thinking Morales is going to want to try and hit the open market fresh next year and try and prove his value. He's also been primarily a DH since his ankle injury.

 

I like that the Brewers have more money and are spending more money, but that additional payroll doesn't really help you all that much if you have guys on the roster making big money who are kinda useless. Ramirez and Weeks are costing the Brewers...what, 32 million for what they're going to provide this year? There's always going to be that "tax," at the end of a contract where you're paying more than you think a guy is going to be worth in order to get him to sign, but this seems like a deal that going into it, it's just too obvious he's not going to produce much, especially at 1st base when he's 34/35 years old to even consider it.

[adambr2]

Francisco, 10 HR, 26 RBI, .943 OPS, 1.4 WAR

 

 

Overbay, .592 OPS, -0.5 WAR

 

 

The "gritty veteran" Overbay has been worth 2 wins less than Francisco so far, as far as WAR goes. If they had made the right decision in the first place and just kept the better player instead of overthinking it for the sake of defense, we wouldn't be talking about this problem so much.

[brewcrewdue80]

Francisco, 10 HR, 26 RBI, .943 OPS, 1.4 WAR

 

 

Overbay, .592 OPS, -0.5 WAR

 

 

The "gritty veteran" Overbay has been worth 2 wins less than Francisco so far, as far as WAR goes. If they had made the right decision in the first place and just kept the better player instead of overthinking it for the sake of defense, we wouldn't be talking about this problem so much.

 

It's not just bad the Brewers chose Overbay over Francisco. It's that the Brewers failed to trade Francisco to a team for any kind of prospect. And I've been harsh about Juan. I don't think the Crew planned on playing Overbay very much and he just has with ARam's injuries. How good would Juan be as basically a bench hitter?

Toronto has played Juan more at 3b, Remember we would play him at 1b where he has to physically go out and catch balls thrown his way. Not really a case at 3b. 203innings at 3b 60 chances. 25innings at 1b 24 chances. That translates to oh 136 less chances at 3b to 1b in 200 innings.

The bigger issue is the Crew should be mad they didn't keep Juan for 3b/1b backup and just sign Reynolds at 1b fulltime. They approached it as Juan 1b option only with Reynolds likely 1b/first in line 3b when ARam went down.

 

 

This will be fixed tonight when Milw sign Morales and waives Overbay the moment Kendry is ready to play on the ML roster.

[Roderick]

It's not just bad the Brewers chose Overbay over Francisco. It's that the Brewers failed to trade Francisco to a team for any kind of prospect.

 

I highly doubt that any team would have given the Brewers anything for a trade. Didn't the Brewers pick him up for free during the middle of the 2013 season because no one wanted him?

 

Juan got a $1.35M contract from the Brewers. The Brewers would have had to pay almost ~$332K when they let him go I believe. Curious - what do the Blue Jays end up paying him for this year?

[logan82]

We traded for him. Tom Keeling apparently.

[jerichoholicninja]

Francisco, 10 HR, 26 RBI, .943 OPS, 1.4 WAR

 

 

Overbay, .592 OPS, -0.5 WAR

 

 

The "gritty veteran" Overbay has been worth 2 wins less than Francisco so far, as far as WAR goes. If they had made the right decision in the first place and just kept the better player instead of overthinking it for the sake of defense, we wouldn't be talking about this problem so much.

 

There's no guarantee that Juan would be putting up those same numbers in Milwaukee. Toronto has now taken 3 players off the scrap heap and they've turned into HR monsters. They must be doing something right.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

There's no guarantee that Juan would be putting up those same numbers in Milwaukee. Toronto has now taken 3 players off the scrap heap and they've turned into HR monsters. They must be doing something right.

 

It's not like Francisco hasn't hit for power before though. He had 18 homers in less than 400 PA's just last year. Even if he put up a sub .800 OPS, he could have been counted on to provide power and take some walks, if nothing else. Overbay is doing virtually nothing.

 

I think, for like the 37th time, it's not "We want Juan Francisco" (in a vacuum), it was "keeping Lyle Overbay over the younger guy with substantially more upside was a bonehead move".

[SoupTown]

RoCo: "keeping Lyle Overbay over the younger guy with substantially more upside was a bonehead move".

 

It was actually a DM move. He identified ERRORS at first base as the big buga-boo from last year. One of his sole considerations at first was defence in 2014 (with little regard to offense or upside or future).

 

Obviously our bench (so far) is the 2014 buga-boo. So in 2015 I guarantee we will be big BENCH SPENDERS.

[HiAndTight]

Francisco, 10 HR, 26 RBI, .943 OPS, 1.4 WAR

 

 

Overbay, .592 OPS, -0.5 WAR

 

 

The "gritty veteran" Overbay has been worth 2 wins less than Francisco so far, as far as WAR goes. If they had made the right decision in the first place and just kept the better player instead of overthinking it for the sake of defense, we wouldn't be talking about this problem so much.

 

There's no guarantee that Juan would be putting up those same numbers in Milwaukee. Toronto has now taken 3 players off the scrap heap and they've turned into HR monsters. They must be doing something right.

 

 

I think it's a bit premature to say that the Jays turned Francisco into a "HR monster." Bautista showed some power, but he qualifies as a guy they took off the scrap heap. Encarnacion on the other hand showed big power in Cincy and put up some pretty good seasons at 23,24 and 25.

 

The bottom line though is that Melvin has made a lot of really good moves to put this team in position to win, but had they at least let Overbay and Francisco compete in ST'ing that would have been one thing, but IIRC, Overbay had an 0 for 20-something streak while Francisco hit very well making the move even more baffling. I hate to belabor moves after the fact, but this one is really hurting(less now than a month ago since the offense picked up).

[DoubleSwitch]

Morris has a 97 wRC+ in the PCL. He's the third worst first baseman in that league. He's not a major league player and probably never will be. The only thing he's an answer for is 'how can the brewers strike out more and walk less.' Morales is only going to want a single year most likely. 8-10 million pro rated sounds fair and if thee money is there i would make the deal.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=4&qual=y&type=1&season=2014&team=0&players=0&sort=18,d

[BallFour]

Just by looking at that link DoubleSwitch, we should make a play for Mike Jacobs. Hes completely blocked by Goldschmidt. And would be a very cheap option. Anything is better than Overbay at this point.

[DuWayne Steurer]

RoCo: "keeping Lyle Overbay over the younger guy with substantially more upside was a bonehead move".

 

It was actually a DM move. He identified ERRORS at first base as the big buga-boo from last year. One of his sole considerations at first was defence in 2014 (with little regard to offense or upside or future).

 

Obviously our bench (so far) is the 2014 buga-boo. So in 2015 I guarantee we will be big BENCH SPENDERS.

 

Heck, even saying Francisco had/has 'substantially' more upside than Overbay was egregious on my part, but my point still stands. :P But you're right, DM knee-jerks to a lot of things. I'll gladly take Juan-Fran and his D (and that OPS) over Lyle and his .600-ish OPS right now.

[brewcrewdue80]

Morris has a 97 wRC+ in the PCL. He's the third worst first baseman in that league. He's not a major league player and probably never will be. The only thing he's an answer for is 'how can the brewers strike out more and walk less.' Morales is only going to want a single year most likely. 8-10 million pro rated sounds fair and if thee money is there i would make the deal.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=4&qual=y&type=1&season=2014&team=0&players=0&sort=18,d

 

But at the same time, the thing I take off that graph(it's a qualified only) is while Morris is the 3rd worst via the wRC he's also tied for 3rd youngest in it.

 

I'm torn on Morris because he's going to be better than Overbay but, he's also going to play how many games? Get how many ABs? So it's better to play him daily in AAA I guess than the maybe 1 more win he provides over Overbay as a spot starting 1b/bench bat.

 

Just, how much longer can you stick with Overbay? This currently qualifies as his worst season ever. And that is while getting a lot of playing time. So you can't say the batting line is bad because it's a Pinch hit bat with 1 game a week starts. We're at 47games 138PAs you know what you were getting before hand, but by now you should also know it's not good enough. It's time to go with Morris. If it's going to bad/pathetic you may as well do it with the guy who has a roster spot locked next season, not a guy who likely retires after the year.

[adambr2]

If the White Sox are willing to eat maybe half of his remaining prorated salary for this year, how does Estrada for Adam Dunn look for both sides?

 

The White Sox need pitching help in general, but specifically at the bottom of their rotation. They could either plug Estrada there or use him out of the pen. Dunn gives us a power lefty and big OBP guy who is a huge upgrade from Overbay. Nelson also moves into the rotation. We get better at first and better in the rotation with this move.

 

Just a thought.

[TheCrew07]

If the White Sox are willing to eat maybe half of his remaining prorated salary for this year, how does Estrada for Adam Dunn look for both sides?

 

The White Sox need pitching help in general, but specifically at the bottom of their rotation. They could either plug Estrada there or use him out of the pen. Dunn gives us a power lefty and big OBP guy who is a huge upgrade from Overbay. Nelson also moves into the rotation. We get better at first and better in the rotation with this move.

 

Just a thought.

 

With the Sox landing Rodon instead of Kolek they might be willing to play wait and see as they may not need another starter for 2015 and that would be part of Estrada's appeal. Rodon could bomb, but since they got the college pitcher instead of the high school the White Sox may not be willing to be aggressive and just ride out the year with the starting pitching they have or perhaps be in the market for an extremely short term solution instead.

 

Too Talented To Pass Up, Rodon Lands With White Sox

 

CHICAGO—The White Sox already have three quality lefthanders in the rotation with Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and John Danks.

 

Chicago may soon be making room for one more after selecting North Carolina State southpaw Carlos Rodon with the No. 3 overall pick, the franchise’s highest draft position since 1977, when they took Harold Baines No. 1 overall...

 

...The White Sox drafted Sale in 2010, taking him 13th overall out of Florida Gulf Coast, and he advanced to the big league bullpen two months later after just 11 minor league appearances. Is the 21-year-old Rodon on a similar path?

 

“We certainly think (Rodon) is an extremely talented pitcher, and with the type of fastball and the slider he has, he certainly could be a guy that is on a so-called fast track,” Laumann said. “But I think it would be somewhat unfair to say that he could be on the same type of track that Sale was on.”

 

The 6-foot-3, 235-pound Rodon went 25-10, 2.24 with 436 strikeouts in 346 innings in three college seasons, holding opponents to a .201 average. This season, he went just 6-7, 2.01 for the Wolfpack, but he had 117 strikeouts in 99 innings.

 

“Throughout this year, there were times when he showed that same stuff,” Laumann said. “He didn’t particularly have maybe the really dominant type of year that we kind of maybe expected, but at the same time you have to consider the history that you have. This isn’t just a one-month, or even a one-year process.

 

“It’s a process where we’ve looked at these guys and we’ve watched their progress over several years. For those reasons we thought he was the consensus best guy on the board.”

[craigharmann]

How soon does Morales sign? Tomorrow? Monday?

[lcbj68c]

How soon does Morales sign? Tomorrow? Monday?

 

At all? Middle of next week.

 

W/ the Brewers? Adam McCalvy says not happenin'

[TooLiveBrew]

W/ the Brewers? Adam McCalvy says not happenin'

Good.

[lcbj68c]

Twins signed Morales.

 

It's either the status quo, Hunter Morris, or a july trade.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I want Michael Cuddyer at the deadline, or Adam LaRoche if the Nats are out of it. Cuddyer would be nice, because he could take some starts in LF or at 3B as well.

[lcbj68c]

I want Michael Cuddyer at the deadline, or Adam LaRoche if the Nats are out of it. Cuddyer would be nice, because he could take some starts in LF or at 3B as well.

 

I want a longer term solution than Cuddyer or LaRoche. LaRoche is empty SLG, which we have in Reynolds. Both are free agents in 2015 (LaRoche has a player option, IIRC). $6M for a partial season from either one of these guys? No thanks. They only reason I was interested in Morales was for beyond 2014. Neither one of Cuddyler/LaRoche approaching 36 years of age appeal to me.

[adambr2]

Since we decided for whatever reason that Overbay was a better keeper than Francisco, I doubt that there is a good long-term solution out there for us right now. Take what you can get for a reasonable upgrade for 2014 to help us play October baseball this year and then re-evaluate the position in the offseason.