First Base 2014

[ewitkows]

If Seattle is out of it and we pick up 80% of Hart, I doubt they ask for much. If they foot the bill maybe someone like Fiers

[SoupTown]

Thanks end for the 4.65 mill of pa money comment. It seems the Crew will be happy to pay that IF Hart has all those plate appearances. I will stash this hope into the back of my mind.

[nate82]

The only way I could see the Brewers trading for Howard is if somehow Weeks was included in the deal. That would at least offset some of the money for the Brewers this year though it wouldn't be all that much.

 

I think Butler might be a possibility but anyone in the AL Central should be still in it by the deadline I don't see Detroit as being that much more of a dominant team over the other AL Central teams. The Royals and Indians are about on par with the Tigers talent wise. Unless the Brewers are willing to trade a piece like Estrada for Butler where it benefits both teams I don't see the Royals as being a match. Though I would look into Moustakas in the off season and see if the Royals would be willing to trade him.

 

I don't believe Hart is going to be available as I see the Mariners being in contention with the A's and the Angels for the AL West and possibly a wild card spot. The Yankees, Orioles, and the Red Sox look rather flat so far this year and the AL Central is looking mostly mediocre at best right now. I believe both Wild Cards will come out of the AL West and the Mariners will be in that race for the majority of the year so I don't see Hart being available unless the Brewers will be giving up someone like Estrada or Gallardo for Hart which would not be worth it.

 

Adam Dunn wouldn't be a bad idea to platoon with Reynolds though you would have to try and trade Weeks in that deal. I would also try and get Beckham in the Dunn deal or take a flier on Viciedo and see if he could stick at 1B. I doubt Viciedo would stick at 1B at best you are looking at Prince level of defense at 1B from Viciedo. Offensively probably about the same as Reynolds so no improvement there.

 

I wonder if the Dodgers would trade Van Slyke?

[adambr2]

I wonder if Hart burned any bridges here to the point where he would be anything of a distraction. It sounds like somewhere he liked being and somewhere where he would be open to coming back to, but his remarks about his teammates when leaving weren't all that complimentary.

[monty57]

The Mariners are falling apart quickly and likely should sell in July if not earlier.

 

Maybe the Brewers will be able to get Jack Z back to head up their scouting department once the Mariners let him go. I can't imagine he has a long leash after getting time to rebuild and a blank check this offseason to sign free agents.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers may lack in top 100 prospects but they have a number of pitchers putting up good numbers in their system. If that keeps up, I would think they could rent a guy like Hart. I mean if he felt slighted by their offer, trading for him would be a pretty decent gesture and I'm sure he'd be welcomed back.

[SRB]

I would do Weeks for Dunn straight-up. A Reynolds/Dunn platoon would be pretty hilarious to watch.

 

The money matches and the White Sox have a logjam at DH, but not sure they need or would want Weeks now that Beckham is back from the DL.

[HiAndTight]

I just started another thread, but I see it aligns exactly with this thread, so I'll just post it here. It was 37 pages and I hadn't read it all, so I apologize for the overlap.

 

 

 

There was recently an article about Drew and Morales on ESPN(about the current compensation system) and the prevailing opinion among the "unnamed MLB execs," in the article was that Morales would likely sign at that point for 1 year and 7.5 million dollars.

 

Morales isn't a star. It looked like he may be on his way to becoming one at 26/27 years of age, but after the infamous injury at home during a celebration, he's kinda settled in as just a good, solid hitter.

 

I know some who believe WAR to be a bit more literal than I do would argue he'd likely only add one win to the team, but I believe if you could plug a switch hitting bat into the 5/6th slot in the order, a guy who can hit ~.280/.330/.450 as opposed to the current situation(which I believe has performed better early in the year than we should expect them to perform the rest of the way) that the chain reaction would be much more than the upgrade WAR may suggest.

Vs Righties

Gomez-R

Gennett-L

Braun-R

Aram-R

Morales-SH

Lucroy-R

Segura-R

Davis-R

-I have Davis in the 8th spot right now just because he's not taking any pitches and is hyper aggressive. I'd prefer to put a hitter like that in the 8th spot though Segura isn't exactly Youk right now himself.

Lefties

Gomez-

Segura

Braun

Aram

Lucroy

Morales

Davis

Weeks/Bianchi

 

 

The Brewers have gotten off to a great start, but I think everyone on the board is in agreement that 1st base is a position in which the Brewers could easily upgrade. It's simply a matter of the resources the Brewers want to put into upgrading the position. I went through a team by team list of teams who are likely to sell at some point.

 

Seattle-Hart would be a nice fit. We know him, I think he likes it here and we can obviously deal with Jack Z who seems to have an affinity for players who were in the system when he was.

Smoak would be another option, though the only reason I think Seattle would part with him is if he's not performing well...which would obviously defeat the entire purpose of trying to acquire him.

 

 

Arizona-Eric Chavez

This is one of the guys I'd really like to see us target. The asking price in terms of prospects would have to be very small as he has very little value for AZ if they're out of it.

He's obviously got injurires and is not an everyday player anymore, but he's a left handed bat that still has some power and can hit for a decent average and while he's not a GG defender any longer, he's more than capable of playing defense at 1st.

2012-2013 line-.281/.341/.488/.829 with 25 HR's in 506 PA's and 193 games. Could definitely be an upgrade for the final 2-3 months.

 

Cleveland-Carlos Santana

Santana is a bit unlikely, but he's been moved to 3rd base and has struggled mightily this year and the Indians still owe him 14 million over the next 2 years plus a team option at 12 million with a 1.2 million dollar buyout.

I'm just throwing him in there because I wonder if the Indians still see him as part of their young core, or if he's a player they'd be willing to walk away from and free up a little bit of money. He's a long shot, but he's a talent who can play 1st, 3rd and can catch on occasion. In fact, he could do a lot for your roster. Part of which would be allowing Maldanado to be our enforcer and fill in behind the plate in case of a future suspension.

 

Colorado-Justin Morneau

He's having a nice start to the year, and I don't see Colorado staying in the race with their pitching(or lackthereof). He has a reasonable contract. Another nice LH'ed bat to pencil into the 6 hole.

 

KC-Billy Butler is an obvious candidate. I've been a fan of his for years. We'd also have him next year if we picked up his option. I think KC is more likely to try and stay in the race all year long however. They're built to win now after giving up Meyers....but it's a possibility come July.

 

LAD-They're obviously not going to be sellers, but they could very well look to upgrade which COULD squeeze Scott Van Slyke out of the lineup. A big power hitter who's never really gotten regular playing time. Good walk rate, big time power potential. Not sure if they'd want to bring in a guy who's unproven and play him at 1st base and I also haven't got a clue what the Dodgers would look to get in return(not even sure if he's got options remaining in which case they could just as easily send him back down).

 

Miami Marlins-Garrett Jones is a left handed bat who'd be a better option to at least platoon Reynolds with. We all know he's got big time power. Extremely streaky player, but the upgrade doesn't have to be massive.

 

SFG- Michael Morse

With Posey and Belt manning 1st base everyday, Morse is similar to Reynolds, but hits for a higher BA. He's playing LF in SF right now, but is another guy who could be a nice pickup for a stretch run.

 

Tampa Bay-James Loney

With the hits that the Rays keep taking, losing Co-Ace Matt Moore among others they're the type of team that could make a move for the future and deal away someone like Loney even if they're only a few games out around the deadline.

 

Loney is a plus defender and has seen a resurgence in Tampa Bay. A big left handed hitter, he doesn't hit for power, but he walks, and the Rays may be more motivated to move him due to the fact that his deal is back loaded as he's owed 15 million over the next 2 years. That would suggest to me that it would cost very little in the way of prospects.

 

 

 

At the end of the day, unless we're willing to part with players like Thornburg, Nelson or any of our other best young players, this is the list that I think is the most feasible. Morales as a FA and a list of 2nd tier 1st basemen.

 

I think Loney would be the biggest upgrade among the players listed as he would be a big upgrade defensively at 1st, can hit .300 and adds a left handed bat to the lineup. He could hit 5th with Luc batting 6th giving us more balance, saving runs, and giving us a more well rounded lineup without decimating our already weak farm system.

[HiAndTight]

If the Brewers are able to maintain momentum into the second half of the year, and especially if the Orioles (and Mariners) fall off the pace, I have to think the odds are pretty decent that they'll sign Morales after the draft. They may even land him despite the records of those other teams.

I think I might rather stick with Reynolds than a guy who won't have seen live MLB pitching in 8 months.*

 

*(I reserve the right to change my mind if Reynolds is hitting .190 come the first week of June)

 

 

He's a guy who missed two full years due to that injury that almost derailed his career celebrating at home and he came back perfectly fine. He's a veteran hitter. I can't imagine having more confidence in Reynolds than the switch hitting Morales just because he missed the first two months of the year.

 

And his last two seasons have been nearly identical, though last year he was in Seattle, so one would think that his line of .277/.336/.449/.785.

[SRB]

The issue with trading for most of those names is that teams are not even close to entering sell mode. We would be pressing our luck by sticking with Reynolds/Overbay for the next couple months, but most teams are not going to give up quality players before then. And maybe even then not at all - Seattle in particular is almost surely not going to be selling this year, right after they signed Cano, if for no other reason than public relations. In fact, they're still talking about adding another bat.

 

If we want to trade for a 1B now, we have to target a team with a player they've been longing to dump (like Dunn), or target a team that is in full rebuild mode. Houston comes to mind as a team with an excess of 1B/DH types who would likely be willing to trade now. Can't think of any other such teams, really. I don't know if any of Chris Carter/Marc Krauss/Jesus Guzman are very appealing to Milwaukee though.

[HiAndTight]

The issue with trading for most of those names is that teams are not even close to entering sell mode. We would be pressing our luck by sticking with Reynolds/Overbay for the next couple months, but most teams are not going to give up quality players before then. And maybe even then not at all - Seattle in particular is almost surely not going to be selling this year, right after they signed Cano, if for no other reason than public relations. In fact, they're still talking about adding another bat.

 

If we want to trade for a 1B now, we have to target a team with a player they've been longing to dump (like Dunn), or target a team that is in full rebuild mode. Houston comes to mind as a team with an excess of 1B/DH types who would likely be willing to trade now. Can't think of any other such teams, really. I don't know if any of Chris Carter/Marc Krauss/Jesus Guzman are very appealing to Milwaukee though.

 

 

My whole point was to try and look towards July and to try and project which teams are likely to be out of it and which players on those teams are likely to be made available. The quickest fix would likely be Morales about 2 minutes after pick #12 is submitted on June 4th.

 

But I do think we can hang around with what we have right now just because we've gotten off to a hot start, our pitching is looking great, and we have some teams we should be able to beat up on coming up. So if you can be within 2-3 games of the playoffs by the time these players become available, I think you're still in good shape.

 

And Reynolds is going to hurt you over the course of the season, but he can also really help and carry an offense for stretches. And if Overbay continues to swing the bat well...they might just be solid enough to get by with.

[nate82]

If the Brewers are trading with the Mariners I would prefer it to be in the off season and to trade for Montero.

 

I also don't believe the Mariners are going to be trading anyone and if they are in a position to be trading that means Jack Z is gone and the Mariners will be looking for players to help them next year. This means that they will be looking for someone like Nelson in exchange for Hart.

 

Would you trade Nelson for Hart? I know I wouldn't. The Mariners are not going to be a trading partner I would seek out because of the situation that they are in.

[igor67]

In the modern baseball environment a player like Hart does not net someone a top 100 prospect anymore. I do think there are some attractive options on the second tier market, that would have relatively little cost. However it is really hard to say which if any will hit the market. Dunn for example has hit like crazy and the Sox are only 2 games out. Howard if protected from lefties could be a useful bat for us (but at how much salary). I also wonder how much defense is wise to give up at this stage, a lot of the teams success has been built on defense supporting effective pitching (which makes them look fantastic). Similarly nate is right to wonder how quickly Hart would be made available. Jack clearly has to be trying to keep his job at this point, and the hope of the second wild card would probably keep him going out of sell mode for a long time, unless there was some way to parlay our pitching depth into a win now for win now kind of swap.

[Bnowell4evr]

With Lyle Overbay starting to heat up against RHP we have exactly what we were hoping for in a 1st base platoon. I don't see the need to use any extra resources besides cash (Morales) to improve our current situation. Now don't get me wrong if the White Sox fall out of the race and want to give up Adam Dunn for an OF and a reliever prospect I'd be all ears. I just wouldn't go overboard trying to fix a situation that is producing fine at the moment. I think LF is a far bigger concern but that's for another thread.

[nate82]

I would trade Fiers for Dunn if the White Sox would do it. But I doubt they would.

[SRB]

Dunn has been horrendous for the past three seasons and is still owed a fair amount of money. I wouldn't give up anything of value (even somebody like Fiers) for a guy who should be a DH-only and whose bat carries a huge question mark.

 

For me it would have to be something like Dunn for Weeks, where both teams get rid of the salaries of players they want to dump. That said, if we got Dunn for Weeks or for a non-prospect plus a lot of salary relief, I would love to see what a Reynolds/Dunn platoon could do.

[HiAndTight]

If the Brewers are trading with the Mariners I would prefer it to be in the off season and to trade for Montero.

 

I also don't believe the Mariners are going to be trading anyone and if they are in a position to be trading that means Jack Z is gone and the Mariners will be looking for players to help them next year. This means that they will be looking for someone like Nelson in exchange for Hart.

 

Would you trade Nelson for Hart? I know I wouldn't. The Mariners are not going to be a trading partner I would seek out because of the situation that they are in.

 

 

1-A trade for Hart would be a short term solution. That wouldn't preclude a trade in the off-season for Montero. It's not like there's a limit to how many trades you can make with a team. But the entire logic behind trading for Hart would be because he's only there for a year.

Montero's a 23 year old player who's struggling now, but has a huge upside. So he doesn't fit what the Brewer are trying to do which is find a short term fix, and it would make no sense for the M's to give up on him unless they got a huge return. So yeah, I'd prefer to get Montero as well. I'd rather get Eric Hosmer from the Royals in the off-season. But the point here is who can we find relatively cheap for THIS YEAR to fix the 1st base problem.

 

2-You're making two giant assumptions with regard to the motivations for the Mariners and their trades. That Jack Z is going to be out of a job if they don't win this year(I believe that's been the narrative on this board for the last 3-4 years starting with when he traded for Josh Lueke).

 

Then you assume that if they're out of it, they're going to demand an impact player for the next year or two.

 

 

We're not talking about making a trade for CC Sabathia. We're talking about a player they took a flier on who has very limited value, who's not going to get a qualifying offer next year. I doubt teams are going to be lining up to offer a top 100 prospect(which is what I believe Nelson is) who's MLB ready for half a year of a 34 year old Corey Hart.

 

 

I think if the Mariners are out of it there's a much stronger chance that if Seattle's out of it, they'll look to dump Hart, save a little bit of money and go with Smoak, Seager, Morrison, Montero and company at 1st/DH.

[BallFour]

You know after the draft Attanasio will make a push for Morales, with his open communication line with Boras.

[logan82]

Dunn's been horrendous? Looks about average outside of 2011.

[HiAndTight]

Dunn's been horrendous? Looks about average outside of 2011.

 

 

And he looks even better this year posting a line of .265/.393/.529/.922 this year.

And he hit 75 HR's the past two years.

 

I realize he's got severe defensive limitations, but the guy walks, hits for a ton of power, would cost much in the way of prospects and given the fact that we're a RH'ed heavy lineup, he'd give us another big power threat in the 6th/7th hole.

[SRB]

Dunn's been horrendous? Looks about average outside of 2011.

 

 

And he looks even better this year posting a line of .265/.393/.529/.922 this year.

And he hit 75 HR's the past two years.

 

I realize he's got severe defensive limitations, but the guy walks, hits for a ton of power, would cost much in the way of prospects and given the fact that we're a RH'ed heavy lineup, he'd give us another big power threat in the 6th/7th hole.

 

Being a 3TO guy really starts to be liability when you can barely hit .200. When Dunn was at the top of his game he used to be a consistent .380-.400 wOBA hitter, now he's closer to an average-ish .330 wOBA hitter. That's probably an upgrade over Overbay, but it's severely tempered by the fact that Dunn may be the worst defender in baseball, and we do not have a DH slot. Even though his power has rebounded since 2011, his overall offensive game is merely average and his defense is atrocious, making him an overall borderline-replacement-level player.

 

We already have a version of Dunn in Mark Reynolds. I would be excited to replace Overbay and see what a Dunn/Reynolds platoon could do, but not if it costs anything of value to get Dunn and his fairly substantial contract.

[logan82]

Average for Dunn fine. His OPS+ has been around 100. Not great or worth trading for but certainly not horrendous.

[SRB]

Average for Dunn fine. His OPS+ has been around 100. Not great or worth trading for but certainly not horrendous.

 

I think having literally one of the worst seasons of all time (in 2011) followed by a couple below-average seasons makes "horrendous" a somewhat reasonable description. But yeah, he's not like Yuni-at-1B levels of bad or anything. I still want him on the team, I just wouldn't give up anyone like Fiers to take on his contract.

[logan82]

A 100 OPS+ is literally average.

[HiAndTight]

Dunn's been horrendous? Looks about average outside of 2011.

 

 

And he looks even better this year posting a line of .265/.393/.529/.922 this year.

And he hit 75 HR's the past two years.

 

I realize he's got severe defensive limitations, but the guy walks, hits for a ton of power, would cost much in the way of prospects and given the fact that we're a RH'ed heavy lineup, he'd give us another big power threat in the 6th/7th hole.

 

Being a 3TO guy really starts to be liability when you can barely hit .200. When Dunn was at the top of his game he used to be a consistent .380-.400 wOBA hitter, now he's closer to an average-ish .330 wOBA hitter. That's probably an upgrade over Overbay, but it's severely tempered by the fact that Dunn may be the worst defender in baseball, and we do not have a DH slot. Even though his power has rebounded since 2011, his overall offensive game is merely average and his defense is atrocious, making him an overall borderline-replacement-level player.

 

We already have a version of Dunn in Mark Reynolds. I would be excited to replace Overbay and see what a Dunn/Reynolds platoon could do, but not if it costs anything of value to get Dunn and his fairly substantial contract.

 

 

Well I think it would go without saying that taking Dunn back would only happen provided the White Sox take on the burden fiscally. At least a Weeks for Dunn trade.

 

I think you only add him in a Jason Giambi type role. And guys like Dunn, sometimes they just get hot and have a big year. He certainly looks like he's off to one. His BABIP is way up this year leading to a .274/.393/.521 line, but Miller Park is a great fit for him. The only three teams he's hit better against have been the Pirates and then the hitters havens in Texas and Cincy.