First Base 2014

[3and2Fastball]

I'd be pretty surprised to see both Overbay and Fracisco make the team. 2 LHB 1B's? It'll be Reynolds and either Overbay or Francisco

[brewtank34]

I'm hopeful that Melvin brought in Overbay and Reynolds as "just in case options" and he still has an eye on a 1B prize via trade.

 

I don't think they want to get rid of Juan's power potential as he would be a great power asset on the bench for both 3B and 1B. Cheap, Young left handed power is a commodity in this league.

 

With that said, I'm thinking they were hoping for lightening in a bottle between MR or LO and they just haven't been producing to this point.

 

I will be shocked if we don't see a trade for a 1B prior to 3/31. I have no sources...just my guy feeling.

[thumperden]

My gut tells me they're going into the season with 2 of the 3 of Francisco, Overbay, and Reynolds. I don't see a trade happening until they're either out of it at the trade deadline, or some other team wants one of the 2 of the three we keep going into the season. My gut also tells me that Overbay gets cut loose. I don't think his bat is good enough anymore, despite his good/decent defense.

[SoupTown]

This may be a painful question... but if the Brewers were considering Reynolds vs JuanFran as the backup 1st base / 3rd base role... which has better D. Is either passable?

 

In reading how Morris is very good v righties, I was also wondering if 2015 will be a repeat of 2014... a platoon, but 2015 will have YOUNG guys. Anyway, that is for another day (year) to think about. My current hope is JuanFran goes to an American League team that needs a DH. But Reynolds better be passable at 3rd and 1st on D. If JuanFran is passable (or equivalent to Reynolds) on D then I want to keep him. But it is ineed a pick your poison. As least they aint backup middle infielders. What were you thinking in 2013, Doug?

[monty57]

This may be a painful question... but if the Brewers were considering Reynolds vs JuanFran as the backup 1st base / 3rd base role... which has better D. Is either passable?

 

I think both Reynolds and Francisco will be on the team and Overbay will not, and if Ramirez gets hurt Reynolds and Francisco will man 1b/3b. Occasionally, to give the pitching staff a reprieve from giving up multiple unearned runs every day, they will let the utility IF get a start at 3B.

[reillymcshane]

This may be a painful question... but if the Brewers were considering Reynolds vs JuanFran as the backup 1st base / 3rd base role... which has better D. Is either passable?

 

I think both Reynolds and Francisco will be on the team and Overbay will not, and if Ramirez gets hurt Reynolds and Francisco will man 1b/3b. Occasionally, to give the pitching staff a reprieve from giving up multiple unearned runs every day, they will let the utility IF get a start at 3B.

We can bring back Yuni and have an infield of:

 

1B: Francisco

2B: Weeks

SS: Yuni

3B: Reynolds

 

That might be the worst defensive team in history.

[TURBO]

^ shame on you...

[JohnBriggs12]

By the way Corey Hart has been awful this spring: 3 for 28 with 14 K's.

 

The solution at first base, is dump all 3 guys, trade for Mike Carp, and recall Halton to back up and face lefties. If they're going to keep both Weeks and Gennett, Bianchi can fill the backup role for Ramirez because there isn't much left for him to see playing time.

[bensheeps]

briggs

 

I have been saying this exact thing since before Overbay and Reynolds were signed. With Sizemore continuing to play well for the RedSox, I've got to imagine that Carp becomes more and more available for the right deal.

 

What is a fair exchange for Carp?

[DR28]

Mets are shopping Ike Davis again... I still believe Doug will be after Ike.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/4162

[Warning Track Power]

Mets are shopping Ike Davis again... I still believe Doug will be after Ike.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/4162

I think this will happen and O and Juan Fran will be cut. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see Juan Fran shipped to New York with say, Ariel Pena, for Ike. Francisco backs up Wright at 3B and Duda at 1B.

 

I just really like the idea of buying talent, which Ike has, cheap even if it never pans out. Make it happen Doug.

[DR28]

Mets are shopping Ike Davis again... I still believe Doug will be after Ike.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/4162

I think this will happen and O and Juan Fran will be cut. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see Juan Fran shipped to New York with say, Ariel Pena, for Ike. Francisco backs up Wright at 3B and Duda at 1B.

 

I just really like the idea of buying talent, which Ike has, cheap even if it never pans out. Make it happen Doug.

 

I absoletly agree... Come on Doug we want Ike!!

[trwi7]

What is this fascination with Ike Davis? There's a pretty decent chance that he's no better than Francisco or Overbay and we don't have to give anything up for them.

[Warning Track Power]

I agree trwi...I don't dispute your point about potentially being no better than Overbay or Francisco. If we were getting the Overbay of 2006, this is a moot point but I think Overbay is done though and Francisco is just a butcher at 1B and should be no more than a DH, which we obviously don't have in the NL.

 

Looking at the career splits for each against RHP, as the winner will likely platoon with Mark Reynolds:

 

Ike: .256/.356/.471

Juan: .252/.312/.464

Lyle: .273/.364/.451

 

And following it up with the past two seasons:

 

2012

Ike: .253/.345/.523

Juan: .245/.291/.477

Lyle: .265/.339/.412

 

2013

Ike: .222/.356/.371

Juan: .234/.305/.443

Lyle: .258/.317/.432

 

It does back up the thinking that Ike may be no better than Overbay or Francisco. However, I think the player that has the greatest chance of being more than those stats is Ike, as Overbay is on his last legs of his career and Francisco...I have a Yuni B-type disgust for and think him never playing defense again would benefit him. A change of scenery trade for Ike, if it included a non-prospect like Pena is the route I hope the Brewers take as I just don't see Francisco ever being more than what he currently is.

 

I am biased because of my disgust of Juan Francisco's game. I admit it. But I think Ike is a lottery ticket we should not pass up because of the likely low cost.

[TheCrew07]

... if it included a non-prospect like Pena is the route I hope the Brewers take as I just don't see Francisco ever being more than what he currently is.

 

I'm not sure I'd qualify Pena as a non-prospect, he continually shows flashes of brilliance, though he may ultimately end up in the bullpen, or of course nothing like any prospect. However I've said this before but I like him more as a starting pitcher than I do Hellweg, I just don't see Hellweg starting in the big leagues with his rate stats and relative lack of control. There is still hope for Pena, I'm not sure exactly how much, but I'd much rather move Gagnon than Pena at this time.

 

I feel similarly about Pena as I did Peralta, he's intriguing and a guy you just keep hoping will have a breakout season at the upper levels of the minors. He has a nice K rate and one can always hope that the BB rate falls to reasonable level, otherwise like Hellweg he's destined for relief if anything.

 

This was BA's assessment of him after 2012 and its hard to find fault in that analysis:

Velocity isn’t an issue. Pena pitches regularly at 92-94 mph with his sinker and can reach 98 with his four-seamer. He throws a hard slider that breaks late and sits at 82-86 mph. His 85-88 mph changeup is too firm and mostly just a show-me pitch. Though he has good size and obvious arm strength, Pena is so erratic with his command that many scouts figure he’ll have to pitch in relief. He loses his mechanics too easily and often drags his arm behind his body, leaving pitches up in the strike zone.

 

He really tanked after his Future's Game debacle in 2012, but he's an easy guy to hope figures something out. He's a guy I wish Lee Tunnell could spend quite a bit of time with, which won't happen in the minors, but much like Hellweg if you could cut his BB rate in half we'd have someone worth being extremely excited about. That's a HUGE "if", and I don't think that hoping any pitcher will halve is walk rate is all that reasonable, but then again I just have a hard time writing him off.

 

[pre]Split W L W-L% ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO/9 SO/BB

Total 8 9 .471 3.68 27 27 144.1 115 63 59 17 79 1 131 2 0 0 604 1.344 8.2 1.66

Last 7 days 1 0 1.000 0.00 1 1 5.0 2 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 17 0.600 10.8 6.00

Last 28 days 1 0 1.000 0.00 1 1 5.0 2 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 17 0.600 10.8 6.00

Last 90 days 3 1 .750 1.24 5 5 29.0 18 4 4 1 12 0 27 0 0 0 108 1.034 8.4 2.25

 

Home 4 3 .571 3.87 14 14 76.2 62 36 33 12 35 0 73 1 0 0 319 1.265 8.6 2.09

Away 4 6 .400 3.46 13 13 67.2 53 27 26 5 44 1 58 1 0 0 285 1.433 7.7 1.32

 

April 1 2 .333 4.76 5 5 22.2 16 13 12 4 18 0 12 0 0 0 95 1.500 4.8 0.67

May 4 1 .800 1.10 6 6 32.2 22 6 4 1 14 1 39 0 0 0 130 1.102 10.7 2.79

June 0 3 .000 4.08 5 5 28.2 23 13 13 5 16 0 24 0 0 0 120 1.360 7.5 1.50

July 0 1 .000 7.07 5 5 28.0 32 22 22 5 16 0 24 1 0 0 130 1.714 7.7 1.50

August 2 2 .500 2.63 5 5 27.1 20 9 8 2 14 0 26 1 0 0 112 1.244 8.6 1.86

September 1 0 1.000 0.00 1 1 5.0 2 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 0 0 17 0.600 10.8 6.00

 

As Starter 8 9 .471 3.68 27 27 144.1 115 63 59 17 79 1 131 2 0 0 604 1.344 8.2 1.66[/pre]

 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

[Warning Track Power]

... if it included a non-prospect like Pena is the route I hope the Brewers take as I just don't see Francisco ever being more than what he currently is.

 

I'm not sure I'd qualify Pena as a non-prospect, he continually shows flashes of brilliance, though he may ultimately end up in the bullpen, or of course nothing like any prospect. However I've said this before but I like him more as a starting pitcher than I do Hellweg, I just don't see Hellweg starting in the big leagues with his rate stats and relative lack of control. There is still hope for Pena, I'm not sure exactly how much, but I'd much rather move Gagnon than Pena at this time.

 

I feel similarly about Pena as I did Peralta, he's intriguing and a guy you just keep hoping will have a breakout season at the upper levels of the minors. He has a nice K rate and one can always hope that the BB rate falls to reasonable level, otherwise like Hellweg he's destined for relief if anything.

I know you really dig into the minors TC07 and I guess I look at Pena and Hellweg in a similar way: electric fastball, very limited control. Neither of those guys are anything close to a sure thing and due to that, if the Mets were to make Ike available in a deal for one or the other I think it behooves the Crew to try to solve an issue at the MLB level with a prospect that is by no means a guarantee. If Thornburg, who I think most rate as an average MLB prospect, was an overpay to get Ike, don't Hellweg and Pena, with their own warts, represent fair value from the Brewers system for Ike?

[nate82]

... if it included a non-prospect like Pena is the route I hope the Brewers take as I just don't see Francisco ever being more than what he currently is.

 

I'm not sure I'd qualify Pena as a non-prospect, he continually shows flashes of brilliance, though he may ultimately end up in the bullpen, or of course nothing like any prospect. However I've said this before but I like him more as a starting pitcher than I do Hellweg, I just don't see Hellweg starting in the big leagues with his rate stats and relative lack of control. There is still hope for Pena, I'm not sure exactly how much, but I'd much rather move Gagnon than Pena at this time.

 

I feel similarly about Pena as I did Peralta, he's intriguing and a guy you just keep hoping will have a breakout season at the upper levels of the minors. He has a nice K rate and one can always hope that the BB rate falls to reasonable level, otherwise like Hellweg he's destined for relief if anything.

I know you really dig into the minors TC07 and I guess I look at Pena and Hellweg in a similar way: electric fastball, very limited control. Neither of those guys are anything close to a sure thing and due to that, if the Mets were to make Ike available in a deal for one or the other I think it behooves the Crew to try to solve an issue at the MLB level with a prospect that is by no means a guarantee. If Thornburg, who I think most rate as an average MLB prospect, was an overpay to get Ike, don't Hellweg and Pena, with their own warts, represent fair value from the Brewers system for Ike?

 

Hellwegg yes Pena no. Pena is almost an equal to Thornburg and has a higher ceiling than Thornburg. Pena and Hellwegg are two completely different pitchers Pena has three pitches with two of them being an out pitch while Hellwegg only has one pitch and he doesn't even control his 1 pitch all that well.

 

Pena has the potential to be a Cueto type of a pitcher. It would be a mistake to trade Pena to the Mets for Ike unless the Mets are also giving the Brewers another prospect in return for Pena.

[Outlander]

It is sad how high Hellweg is on Brewer prospect lists because I would go as far as calling hum a non prospect at this point. While I have doubts about Davis he has a better chance of breaking out than Hellweg and would do that trade today before Overbay is added to the roster. I still have hope for Pena as his control is nowhere near as bad as Hellweg's but this is his last option year as well.

[brewcrewdue80]

No way no how on Ike Davis. Only for a Juan Fran straight up do I do the trade at this moment. He's injured now, and how often is it that once a player is injured, that injury lingers all year affecting their ability to play at 100% ability? Ike Davis is dealing with a calf injury. Already affects his ability to run, and injuries like that lead to other injuries because you tend to walk/run differently to compensate and lessen the pain when doing so....That leads to another injury(hip/Back, Hamstrings, his Core again)

 

Go with the Juan Fran/Reynolds platoon. If the trade is made Juan Fran for Davis then you can just play Reynolds everyday til Davis is ready and platoon them then.

 

Let's put it this way, I think some are excited at the thought of Ike Davis because the mention he hid a Core injury from the team last year. Now he has a calf injury. But could the Mets FO coin up this idea with Davis, to put down he hid an injury from the team to explain him being lousy, and then upon seeing he's still lousy tell him we now want you to have a "Calf Injury" hiding Davis from being seen in ST and leaving Trade Partner potentials to deal something worthy for Davis. As they could be under the impression that Davis once healthy(having not seen him be lousy in ST) can be the stud hitting 1b prospect he was to be?

Yeah Conspiracy theorist but hey if I'm the Mets FO, why not drum this up? Maybe Ike came to them with the idea wanting out of New York? I mean why be so publicly "out there" with looking to trade Ike? Constantly putting he's available? Hasn't it been said over and over again, a player's ability to focus 100% when he's been publicly offered to trade affects them? You hear the no it doesn't affect me I'm just going out there and playing everyday if a trade happens it happens. I mean if extension talks can't go on during the season to avoid affecting play, trade talks? You're talking taking somebody's head in a comfortable place with a home, and now in the back of his mind he's gotta wonder if traded/ selling his home, finding a new home. Moving sucks! Then there's gotta be one media idiot who asks Davis daily or every other day about the trade rumors making sure the idea sticks in his head.

 

So yeah, I wonder about Davis being injured right now kept away from ST games vs ML competition. And his "Core ailment hidden from team" When the Mets have been so adamant of trading him and nothing happening these come up.

 

On that note, my guess is that Davis goes to Pittsburgh for Tabata. End Rant.

[Mudville9]

I get that Helweg has not lived up to expectations, but don't tall pitchers usually come around a little later in their career? I thought I remembered hearing that somewhere. I don't expect him to ever be a lights out type pitcher, but number 4 or 5 workhouse is definitely valuable. Hopefully he puts it together enough this year to at least stick as a bullpen arm next year.

[Warning Track Power]

Let's put it this way, I think some are excited at the thought of Ike Davis because the mention he hid a Core injury from the team last year. Now he has a calf injury. But could the Mets FO coin up this idea with Davis, to put down he hid an injury from the team to explain him being lousy, and then upon seeing he's still lousy tell him we now want you to have a "Calf Injury" hiding Davis from being seen in ST and leaving Trade Partner potentials to deal something worthy for Davis. As they could be under the impression that Davis once healthy(having not seen him be lousy in ST) can be the stud hitting 1b prospect he was to be?

Yeah Conspiracy theorist but hey if I'm the Mets FO, why not drum this up? Maybe Ike came to them with the idea wanting out of New York? I mean why be so publicly "out there" with looking to trade Ike? Constantly putting he's available?

In this scenario, the Mets would be getting less and less for Ike because he is a player who cannot stay on the field. A core injury last year, a calf injury this year...and now they're making it known he is available? Seems to me like a cut bait and get whatever you can moment for the Mets.

 

You state above that some are excited because his core injury may have led to him being lousy and we are getting the stud hitting 1B prospect. I am excited about the prospect of adding Ike not because of those things, but because I think he is significantly better than Overbay and Francisco at this point in their careers and could turn out to be a perfect change of scenery player and in the best case scenario, maybe even a poor man's Chris Davis.

[Warning Track Power]

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/3/18/5522420/first-base-available-trade-statz

 

Interesting...and terrifying article about 1B. Could this be our situation for a while?

[jerichoholicninja]

Around the league first base has really become a weak position. I can't blame the Brewer for having such a bad situation at first because there really has been nothing they could do that wouldn't have cost a lot of money or talent. I think the best thing they could have done was moved Braun to first instead of RF.

[reillymcshane]

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/3/18/5522420/first-base-available-trade-statz

 

Interesting...and terrifying article about 1B. Could this be our situation for a while?

It's going to get worse. The 1B in the minor leagues are not exactly inspiring. I think Singleton in Houston is the top guy - and he's a good, but not great, prospect.

[reillymcshane]

Around the league first base has really become a weak position. I can't blame the Brewer for having such a bad situation at first because there really has been nothing they could do that wouldn't have cost a lot of money or talent. I think the best thing they could have done was moved Braun to first instead of RF.

I agree. Braun at 1B would have been the best move. His problems at 3B were throwing - not fielding. I think he could easily be an above average fielder. Of course, that's just my opinion. I also think it could have helped keep Braun healthy and in the lineup. He's 30. He's going to get dinged up more and more.