First Base 2014

[DR28]

What would the Mariners be targeting in a return for Smoak?

 

Yea I have no idea.

[brewerfan82]

Here are the three year splits of those involved:

 

[pre]Mark Reynolds - R (30) AB HR AVG OBP SLG OPS

vs. Left 409 19 .220 .331 .411 .742

vs. Right 1027 62 .221 .317 .449 .766

 

Juan Francisco - L (26)

vs. Left 83 0 .169 .205 .217 .422

vs. Right 550 30 .244 .302 .462 .764

 

Lyle Overbay - L (37)

vs. Left 238 3 .214 .265 .315 .580

vs. Right 717 22 .248 .319 .402 .721

 

Justin Smoak - B (27)

vs. Left 443 13 .226 .300 .357 .657

vs. Right 921 41 .231 .322 .406 .728

 

Ike Davis - L (26)

vs. Left 279 9 .165 .225 .287 .512

vs. Right 686 39 .257 .361 .490 .851

 

and...

 

Corey Hart - R (31)

vs. Left 233 14 .309 .391 .575 .966

vs. Right 821 42 .268 .330 .490 .820

 

Doh! However on the brightside, it shouldn't be hard to improve from last year:

 

2013 Brewer 1B 587 21 .206 .259 .370 .629

2013 Brewer PH 238 4 .210 .273 .294 .567

 

That seems impossibly bad...[/pre]

[Bnowell4evr]

Smoak hit .260/.361/.477/.839 vs RHP and only .192/.274/.274/.548 vs LHP a year ago. He's a better platoon option than both Francisco and Overbay but you would still need to keep Reynolds around. You could probably hit Smoak in the 5-6 hole against RHP which you shouldn't do with Francisco or Overbay.

 

I'm interested (just as I am with Ike Davis) as long as it doesn't require Thornburg and Nelson.

[Warning Track Power]

Word is the Mariners would be looking for SP help if Cruz is signed. Not sure there is a match there unless the Brewers would be willing to trade Estrada and plug Thornburg into the rotation. If the Mariners want Estrada then I want Smoak and Ackley or Nick Franklin.

[brewmann04]

Brewers can not afford to give up any potential starting Pitching for a mediocre 1st baseman.

[jerichoholicninja]

Brewers can not afford to give up any potential starting Pitching for a mediocre 1st baseman.

 

Agreed. Or an actual starting pitcher like Estrada.

[nate82]

Word is the Mariners would be looking for SP help if Cruz is signed. Not sure there is a match there unless the Brewers would be willing to trade Estrada and plug Thornburg into the rotation. If the Mariners want Estrada then I want Smoak and Ackley or Nick Franklin.

 

Franklin and Smoak would be a good deal for the Brewers in exchange for Estrada. I don't believe the Mariners would do this as Franklin is worth more than Estrada.

[MNBrew]

I still don't get any fascination with Smoak. He's just not a better alternative at 1B than anyone MIL already has and may well be significantly worse (at least Reynolds and Overbay have had MLB success over a considerable period!). Smoak's had a plenty of time to prove himself worthy and he's just not enough of a hitter to merit coveting, let alone trading anything better than what the Brewers sent to the Mets for K-Rod.

[monty57]

I still don't get any fascination with Smoak. He's just not a better alternative at 1B than anyone MIL already has and may well be significantly worse (at least Reynolds and Overbay have had MLB success over a considerable period!). Smoak's had a plenty of time to prove himself worthy and he's just not enough of a hitter to merit coveting, let alone trading anything better than what the Brewers sent to the Mets for K-Rod.

 

Yeah, we just dfa'd Mat Gamel, who was a former top prospect who never had success at the MLB level, so I can't imagine Melvin would give up something of value for a different former top prospect who has never had success at the MLB level to replace Francisco, who was a highly thought-of prospect who hasn't had a lot of success at the MLB level.

 

If Seattle has too many people, and they are desperate to dump someone so they give Smoak away for little-or-nothing, then I'd be fine with getting him. That would basically mean Francisco would be gone, and that's not a bad thing. However, the marginal difference from Reynolds/Francisco to Reynolds/Smoak isn't worth giving up anything of value. It's basically dumping our garbage for someone else's garbage and hoping to find a treasure.

[Warning Track Power]

I don't think anyone is necessarily advocating for Smoak, just like no one here has advocated trading Thornburg for Ike Davis. What we're discussing is would the Brewers be willing to make a move on Smoak, if the Mariners were to sign Cruz, given the Brewers current 1B situation. Moreover, if the Brewers could say acquire Smoak and Ackley for Estrada or Ike for Thornburg, would they be interested in doing so?

 

Now, having said all that, I like Marco a ton and believe him to very underrated. However, having a deal like this, Smoak and Ackley for Estrada, would be intriguing in a ton of ways. Smoak and Ackley COULD fill 1B and 2B long term (Smoak would be FA after in 2016 & Ackley in 2017) for the Brewers AND Estrada is a FA after 2015. If they ever lived up to their potential, the Brewers could theoretically have added to their core of Lucroy, Segura, Gomez, Braun and hopefully K. Davis, and have them all under contract for the next 3 seasons. Ackley is a plus defender from what I can see (1.4 dWAR in 2012 playing 2B).

 

Again, not necessarily ideal to be dealing Marco, but intriguing if you believe Thornburg is worthy of being in the rotation, and personally, I am curious if the Brewers would consider this deal if it were to be offered.

[JohnBriggs12]

I still don't get any fascination with Smoak. He's just not a better alternative at 1B than anyone MIL already has and may well be significantly worse (at least Reynolds and Overbay have had MLB success over a considerable period!). Smoak's had a plenty of time to prove himself worthy and he's just not enough of a hitter to merit coveting, let alone trading anything better than what the Brewers sent to the Mets for K-Rod.

 

The more I look at Smoak, the more I tend to agree but let's not get carried away about Overbay's career either. He had 4 solid major league seasons (the rest were mediocre to bad) and the last good one was 5 years ago. At 37, he's more than likely done.

[monty57]

I may have to pull back a bit from my previous statement, as Smoak's done better than the raw numbers show, and may look better if he didn't play his home games in Seattle's stadium.

 

I checked Baseball Reference, and Smoak's sOPS+ over the past three years have been 100 (93 vs LHP in 345 PA, 92 vs LHP), 81 (68 vs RHP in 347 PA, 86 vs LHP in 188 PA), and 109 (125 vs RHP in 357 PA, 51 vs LHP in 164 PA). For some reason in 2011, he took three PAs vs RHP hitting right handed, and had a 180 sOPS+, which is possibly why his total number was 100, while his splits were 93 and 92. Home vs away: 2013 - 122 sOPS away, 96 home, 2012 - 109 away, 52 home, 2011 - 92 away, 109 home

 

I used sOPS, which measures how the player did vs the league, because that's what baseball reference gave me when I went into splits. Using OPS+ (106, 85 and 113) in the last three years, he looks better than if you just look at his raw numbers. That would say that he had one terrible year, but Seattle's stadium is killing him and he's really a decent hitter.

 

Ackley has been pretty horrible all around after his 376 PAs as a rookie in 2011 (OPS of .766, .622 and .660, OPS+ of 120, 77 and 90). I wouldn't give up much for him.

 

Over the past three years, Estrada's ERA+ is 97, 113 and 102. 2011 (when he had the 97 ERA+) was the last year he was used as a reliever. As a starting pitcher, he has been good. I wouldn't trade Estrada for these two. I'd just leave Ackley out of the conversation, and see if we could get Smoak for one of our lesser AAA SP prospects.

[Bnowell4evr]

I may have to pull back a bit from my previous statement, as Smoak's done better than the raw numbers show, and may look better if he didn't play his home games in Seattle's stadium.

 

I checked Baseball Reference, and Smoak's sOPS+ over the past three years have been 100 (93 vs LHP in 345 PA, 92 vs LHP), 81 (68 vs RHP in 347 PA, 86 vs LHP in 188 PA), and 109 (125 vs RHP in 357 PA, 51 vs LHP in 164 PA). For some reason in 2011, he took three PAs vs RHP hitting right handed, and had a 180 sOPS+, which is possibly why his total number was 100, while his splits were 93 and 92. Home vs away: 2013 - 122 sOPS away, 96 home, 2012 - 109 away, 52 home, 2011 - 92 away, 109 home

 

I used sOPS, which measures how the player did vs the league, because that's what baseball reference gave me when I went into splits. Using OPS+ (106, 85 and 113) in the last three years, he looks better than if you just look at his raw numbers. That would say that he had one terrible year, but Seattle's stadium is killing him and he's really a decent hitter.

 

Ackley has been pretty horrible all around after his 376 PAs as a rookie in 2011 (OPS of .766, .622 and .660, OPS+ of 120, 77 and 90). I wouldn't give up much for him.

 

Over the past three years, Estrada's ERA+ is 97, 113 and 102. 2011 (when he had the 97 ERA+) was the last year he was used as a reliever. As a starting pitcher, he has been good. I wouldn't trade Estrada for these two. I'd just leave Ackley out of the conversation, and see if we could get Smoak for one of our lesser AAA SP prospects.

 

That's what I'm hoping for as well. I'd consider Hellweg as I don't think he's ever gonna get his control figured out.

[JohnBriggs12]

Are we looking at it in the wrong way? Seattle is said now to be seeking starting pitching. Iwakuma is out 4-6 weeks with a finger injury. They've got a lot invested in their team to try and win now. They won't be interested in a Hellweg. But I'm sure Estrada interests them. Now might be an opportunity not just for Smoak but for Smoak and a very good prospect. I've not taken a close look at their prospect lists, but I'm sure there are names the Brewers would love to have. Brewers only control Estrada through 2015. His value might be at a peak.

[logan82]

If we could get a good prospect I would trade Estrada. I don't think Melvin will trade any of our starting pitching right now. I think he needs to do well this year or he is out of a job next year.

[jerichoholicninja]

Unless the player will help the team this year, trading Estrada makes no sense. Mark and Doug built a team to contend now and creating a hole in the rotation for help a few years down the road won't fit that MO. Nelson or Thornburg might fit that spot but I don't think you can hope for that if you are trying to contend this year.

[monty57]

Agree Jericho. I think it is possible (although maybe not likely) that they trade away Thornburg or Nelson in order to upgrade 1B, but not one of our MLB starters. As much as I may like to see them occasionally look to the future, and as much as I think that even with the Garza acquisition, we are not likely to be a contender this year, the Brewers are not going to trade one of their starting pitchers and replace him with one of our prospects... they picked up Garza so none of our prospects would be in the opening day rotation. I think that assuming we don't trade Thornburg and Nelson away in order to "win now," it is likely that we will trade one or some of our starting pitchers at the trade deadline, but not now.

 

To Briggs' point about the Mariners looking to replace injured MLB starters, it is possible that they would think Thornburg or Nelson would make a good temporary injury replacement. However, I would be pretty upset if we traded one of those guys for Smoak. Really, the only reason Smoak is being speculated on is that he's a spare part if the Mariners pick up Cruz, so the hope is that we can get him for a low cost. Otherwise, we stick with what we have or look elsewhere.

[Bnowell4evr]

I got an off the wall idea -

 

What do you guys think about signing Kendry Morales *after* the draft when he no longer has a comp pick attached to him? We'd have to survive up until then with our current slop but he'd give us a boost for the stretch run without giving up any prospects. Have to figure he wouldn't sign for much at that point since he would be more worried about getting a guaranteed job.

[Outlander]

I think the Orioles and the Pirates among others will give in before the draft. However, like I indicated in a different thread I just don't think he is worth the risk trying to have him play first base every single game. I mean it is annoying seeing what Ramirez goes through, can only imagine a couple of seasons of Morales and the number of days off and the trips to the DL for him.

[TooLiveBrew]

I got an off the wall idea -

 

What do you guys think about signing Kendry Morales *after* the draft when he no longer has a comp pick attached to him? We'd have to survive up until then with our current slop but he'd give us a boost for the stretch run without giving up any prospects. Have to figure he wouldn't sign for much at that point since he would be more worried about getting a guaranteed job.

Hey, if he's still available & healthy enough to play 1B, I like the idea.

[reillymcshane]

I got an off the wall idea -

 

What do you guys think about signing Kendry Morales *after* the draft when he no longer has a comp pick attached to him? We'd have to survive up until then with our current slop but he'd give us a boost for the stretch run without giving up any prospects. Have to figure he wouldn't sign for much at that point since he would be more worried about getting a guaranteed job.

This is a good idea, assuming the team is doing well and 1B is a black hole.

 

But I predict someone jumps at Morales - even with the draft pick compensation tied to him.

 

However, I think it could potentially be a good strategy to wait. He then signs after the draft - picking a team that he can put up good numbers with (and in the playoff race). The team signing him would have to agree not to give him a qualifying offer. He can then be an unrestricted FA at age 31 - get one final big contract.

 

Teams like Milwaukee and Baltimore fit the bill of hitters parks - and having a need for 1B - but who knows if these teams will be a in the playoff race. And you never know who's going to suffer an injury.

[igor67]

Anybody think Kemp could play first base after today's little news story?

[RockCoCougars]

I was actually racking my mind to think of a realistic trade scenario for Kemp, but the only thing that would probably work would be Braun for Kemp even up, and that's not happening.

[Warning Track Power]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/move-to-first-base-a-career-reboot-for-jesus-montero?ymd=20140220&content_id=68008184&vkey=news_mlb

So now the Mariners are moving Jesus Montero to 1B...That makes it Smoak/Hart/Morrison/Montero to play one position. Interesting.

[jerichoholicninja]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/move-to-first-base-a-career-reboot-for-jesus-montero?ymd=20140220&content_id=68008184&vkey=news_mlb

So now the Mariners are moving Jesus Montero to 1B...That makes it Smoak/Hart/Morrison/Montero to play one position. Interesting.

 

He was moved there last year. It's not an interesting situation to me since those that are available are all average to below average players. Just stick with what we got.