First Base 2014

[Warning Track Power]

If the Brewers are going to upgrade 1B, I think it should/will either be with a flamed out prospect with potential still like Smoak or Morrison or a Billy Butler type. Adam Dunn is an older, more expensive version of Mark Reynolds.

While he may not still be the same hitter he once was, the ~40 point edge Dunn has over Reynolds in OBP alone makes him significantly more valuable as a hitter. Now, Reynolds's glove v. Dunn's 'glove' at 1B might mitigate that, but still. To call them the same hitter over the course of their careers isn't accurate (not to mention the difference in SLG & overall OPS gap -- .861 to .793).

How about this then? Since 2011 Dunn has put up the following slash line in 1752 PA: .197/.317/.405, with 86 HR, 224 RBI, OPS+ 93. Reynolds since 2011 in 1662 PA .221/.321/.438, with 81 HR, 222 RBI, OPS+ 107. Since 2011, Dunn and Reynolds are basically the same player and it could be easily argued that Reynolds has been better

[JohnBriggs12]

If the Brewers are going to upgrade 1B, I think it should/will either be with a flamed out prospect with potential still like Smoak or Morrison or a Billy Butler type. Adam Dunn is an older, more expensive version of Mark Reynolds.

While he may not still be the same hitter he once was, the ~40 point edge Dunn has over Reynolds in OBP alone makes him significantly more valuable as a hitter. Now, Reynolds's glove v. Dunn's 'glove' at 1B might mitigate that, but still. To call them the same hitter over the course of their careers isn't accurate (not to mention the difference in SLG & overall OPS gap -- .861 to .793).

How about this then? Since 2011 Dunn has put up the following slash line in 1752 PA: .197/.317/.405, with 86 HR, 224 RBI, OPS+ 93. Reynolds since 2011 in 1662 PA .221/.321/.438, with 81 HR, 222 RBI, OPS+ 107. Since 2011, Dunn and Reynolds are basically the same player and it could be easily argued that Reynolds has been better

 

Reynolds at 30 has a lot better chance of posting numbers closer to his peak seasons than does the hefty 34 year old Dunn. Dunn's K rate has been worse the last 3 seasons than even Reynolds and noticeably worse than he was earlier. Reynolds has if anything improved slightly.

[TooLiveBrew]

If the Brewers are going to upgrade 1B, I think it should/will either be with a flamed out prospect with potential still like Smoak or Morrison or a Billy Butler type. Adam Dunn is an older, more expensive version of Mark Reynolds.

While he may not still be the same hitter he once was, the ~40 point edge Dunn has over Reynolds in OBP alone makes him significantly more valuable as a hitter. Now, Reynolds's glove v. Dunn's 'glove' at 1B might mitigate that, but still. To call them the same hitter over the course of their careers isn't accurate (not to mention the difference in SLG & overall OPS gap -- .861 to .793).

How about this then? Since 2011 Dunn has put up the following slash line in 1752 PA: .197/.317/.405, with 86 HR, 224 RBI, OPS+ 93. Reynolds since 2011 in 1662 PA .221/.321/.438, with 81 HR, 222 RBI, OPS+ 107. Since 2011, Dunn and Reynolds are basically the same player and it could be easily argued that Reynolds has been better

Fair enough... actually, more than 'fair enough.'

[craigharmann]

Brett Wallace has been DFA'd by the Astros. He's 27. Throw him in the mix, too?

[Warning Track Power]

How about this then? Since 2011 Dunn has put up the following slash line in 1752 PA: .197/.317/.405, with 86 HR, 224 RBI, OPS+ 93. Reynolds since 2011 in 1662 PA .221/.321/.438, with 81 HR, 222 RBI, OPS+ 107. Since 2011, Dunn and Reynolds are basically the same player and it could be easily argued that Reynolds has been better

Fair enough... actually, more than 'fair enough.'

Not that either of Reynolds or Dunn are what I call a great option...

[TooLiveBrew]

Not that either of Reynolds or Dunn are what I call a great option...

Yeah. It's kind of startlingly dire at 1B for the Brewers.

[endaround]

Not that either of Reynolds or Dunn are what I call a great option...

Yeah. It's kind of startlingly dire at 1B for the Brewers.

 

Right now its dire for most teams. The Cardinals aren't any better off. It seems that there are handful of really good guys and then a bunch of guys below average.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not that either of Reynolds or Dunn are what I call a great option...

Yeah. It's kind of startlingly dire at 1B for the Brewers.

 

Right now its dire for most teams. The Cardinals aren't any better off. It seems that there are handful of really good guys and then a bunch of guys below average.

Craig & Adams look like notably better options compared to Francisco or Reynolds. Frankly, the Brewers don't have one guy at this point that would be better than either of the Cards' options... and just for good measure Craig/Adams is a RH/LH duo. If they need to platoon, they have that option. It seems like a pretty reasonable guess that the Cards will get solid production from 1B in 2014.

[trwi7]

Not that either of Reynolds or Dunn are what I call a great option...

Yeah. It's kind of startlingly dire at 1B for the Brewers.

 

Right now its dire for most teams. The Cardinals aren't any better off. It seems that there are handful of really good guys and then a bunch of guys below average.

 

http://enlightenyourday.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/yellow-beer-goggles-300x220.jpg

[TURBO]

THAT is awesome!

[JohnBriggs12]

Brett Wallace has been DFA'd by the Astros. He's 27. Throw him in the mix, too?

 

Nah, Wallace is a career underachiever. Great AAA hitter, He was handed the job in Houston 3 or 4 times and could never hold it. Not totally unlike Gamel but without the injury excuses. He's probably no worse than they have now, but no better either.

[pogokat]

if wallace can still play 3b, he'd be worth a minor league grab to stick at AAA

[DR28]

I'm still holding hope that we acquire Ike Davis... But not for Thornburg or Nelson.

 

Davis/Reynolds platoon!

[bensheeps]

With K-Rod now in the fold...

 

Schafer & 1 bullpen arm (Gorzelanny, Hand, Blazek, etc.) to Boston for Mike Carp. (maybe I should have said someone besides Hand as he is designated for assingment)

 

Carp/Reynolds platoon at 1st with Carp also able to play left and Reynolds the back-up at 3rd.

Schafer gives Red Sox an option if Jackie Bradley struggles and/or Sizemore can't stay healthy.

Would love to see Gorzelanny go as it saves the most money and allows younger Smith and Wang to work as lefties out of the pen.

[Warning Track Power]

I'm still holding hope that we acquire Ike Davis... But not for Thornburg or Nelson.

 

Davis/Reynolds platoon!

This has been gone over at length on this board and I still think it makes way too much sense for it not to happen. The K-Rod signing has nothing to do with making arms suddenly available, rather it has more to do with the idea that the Brewers are positioning themselves as potential contenders in 2014 and currently they look rather weak at 1B with a Francisco as a platoon partner, who was a -1 WAR player in 2013 versus Davis who was a -.1 WAR player despite his struggles.

 

Consider the ZiPS projection for 1B:

Reynolds: 532 PA .234/.335/.474

Francisco: 380 PA .246/.295/.465

Davis: 445 PA .232/.330/.424

 

I could care less about the additional SLG% that Francisco will bring because (1) he is a butcher with the glove and (2) his OBP is .35 lower than Davis. The increase in defensive ability and OBP is worth more to me than a secondary piece of a bullpen like Blazek or a AAAA pitcher like Hellweg. Hellweg and Blazek for Ike.

[TURBO]

Reynolds as our back-up 3B = bad, VERY bad idea...

 

If it comes down to him getting a lot of playing time there due to another Ramirez injury, we will then have huge holes at 2 typically power run producing positions. (1B AND 3B) Not to mention, 2 complete hacks defensively... Oh man, my head aches just thinking about it!

 

I just can't see us competing for a playoff spot if we have to run Reynolds AND Francisco both out there nearly every day.

 

yuk.

[endaround]

[

 

Right now its dire for most teams. The Cardinals aren't any better off. It seems that there are handful of really good guys and then a bunch of guys below average.

Craig & Adams look like notably better options compared to Francisco or Reynolds. Frankly, the Brewers don't have one guy at this point that would be better than either of the Cards' options... and just for good measure Craig/Adams is a RH/LH duo. If they need to platoon, they have that option. It seems like a pretty reasonable guess that the Cards will get solid production from 1B in 2014.

 

Craig is likely the right fielder which leaves Adams alone at 1B. Adams ZiPs projection:

 

.265/.309/.464

 

Adams likely has a higher ceiling but he isn't a world beater.

[endaround]

[

 

Right now its dire for most teams. The Cardinals aren't any better off. It seems that there are handful of really good guys and then a bunch of guys below average.

Craig & Adams look like notably better options compared to Francisco or Reynolds. Frankly, the Brewers don't have one guy at this point that would be better than either of the Cards' options... and just for good measure Craig/Adams is a RH/LH duo. If they need to platoon, they have that option. It seems like a pretty reasonable guess that the Cards will get solid production from 1B in 2014.

 

Craig is likely the right fielder which leaves Adams alone at 1B. Adams ZiPs projection:

 

.265/.309/.464

 

Adams likely has a higher ceiling but he isn't a world beater.

[reillymcshane]

Reynolds as our back-up 3B = bad, VERY bad idea...

 

If it comes down to him getting a lot of playing time there due to another Ramirez injury, we will then have huge holes at 2 typically power run producing positions. (1B AND 3B)

 

I just can't see us competing for a playoff spot if we have to run Reynolds AND Francisco both out there nearly every day.

 

yuk.

So right. Reynolds should not be put in the field other than 1B unless we are desperate. He's a butcher at 3B.

[TURBO]

Reynolds as our back-up 3B = bad, VERY bad idea...

 

If it comes down to him getting a lot of playing time there due to another Ramirez injury, we will then have huge holes at 2 typically power run producing positions. (1B AND 3B)

 

I just can't see us competing for a playoff spot if we have to run Reynolds AND Francisco both out there nearly every day.

 

yuk.

So right. Reynolds should not be put in the field other than 1B unless we are desperate. He's a butcher at 3B.

 

Can you imagine Reynolds at 3B and Francisco at 1B defensively?

 

yikes.

[TooLiveBrew]

Craig & Adams look like notably better options compared to Francisco or Reynolds. Frankly, the Brewers don't have one guy at this point that would be better than either of the Cards' options... and just for good measure Craig/Adams is a RH/LH duo. If they need to platoon, they have that option. It seems like a pretty reasonable guess that the Cards will get solid production from 1B in 2014.

 

Craig is likely the right fielder which leaves Adams alone at 1B. Adams ZiPs projection:

 

.265/.309/.464

 

Adams likely has a higher ceiling but he isn't a world beater.

Ack -- good point on Craig. I'd still take Adams over Reynolds or Francisco. Adams hit the hell out of the ball all throughout the minors. I don't put much weight in projections anymore... they're more reactive than predictive imo. Yes, Adams didn't walk much in MiLB, but he also didn't K much, & hit for a high average at every stop. I think what you'll get from him is pretty likely to be close to his 2013 slash line, assuming he's platooned. As the bigger half of a platoon, he'll be significantly better than what the Brewers currently have at 1B. All the Cards need to do is make sure they have a solid RH platoon partner with him at 1B.

[endaround]

He was putrid against LHers when he had to face them in the majors. For platoon partners its basically Shane Robinson (with Craig likely coming in to play 1B). So that might make 1B look better but by making RF worse.

[TooLiveBrew]

He was putrid against LHers when he had to face them in the majors. For platoon partners its basically Shane Robinson (with Craig likely coming in to play 1B). So that might make 1B look better but by making RF worse.

Or going out & signing or trading for a platoon partner.

[DR28]

Sounds like Cruz to the M's is just a matter of time... Gotta imagine Doug trys to get Smoak.

 

I would be good with a Smoak/Reynolds platoon... Although Smoak is a switch hitter... But I haven't looked at his splits.

[Warning Track Power]

What would the Mariners be targeting in a return for Smoak?