First Base 2014

[brewmann04]

There is no reason to trade for Davis he not much better than what we have and especially for a Young Arm.

[logan82]

.234/.357/.414

 

That batting line for a 2B is really good. Some people just get to hung up on batting average.

[Warning Track Power]

.234/.357/.414

 

That batting line for a 2B is really good. Some people just get to hung up on batting average.

Agreed, but I think that thought permeated Brewer fans' opinions about Rickie during that time. That was my point.

[MNBrew]

The "relative" love for Ike D & his big season sounds an awful lot like Bill Hall.

[Bombers]

MLBTR has several teams interested in Tyler Colvin on a minor league deal. At this stage with Reynolds, Overbay, Francisco, I doubt the Brewers are in on him. He is slightly intriguing though as did he just have a bad year last year? or is it the start of the norm for him. In 2012 he had a .290 / .327 / .531 slash. His historical trend has been: 2009 bad, 2010 - good, 2011 - bad, 2012 - great, 2013 - bad, 2014?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/rosenthals-latest-d-backs-tanaka-brewers-colvin.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

[jhart05]

Found this little blub online.

 

Brewers still seeking Prince's replacement at 1B (Yahoo Sports)

 

Two years after Prince Fielder left, the Brewers are still looking for his replacement at first base. Traditionally a position of offensive strength, the Brewers' first basemen collectively had the lowest batting average (.206) and on-base percentage (.259) in the majors last season. The plan going into this spring training is to mix and match at first base, with veterans Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay the most notable candidates. ''They said it took 20 years for Brett Favre to replace Bart Starr,'' general manager Doug Melvin said.

 

 

To even compare Bart Starr to Prince Fielder is an unsult to Bart Starr.

 

Question for Doug, How long did it take to find a replacement for Brett Favre?

[Warning Track Power]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/latest-on-nelson-cruz.html

 

If the Mariners complete this deal, Seattle is really shaping up to be an ideal trade partner for the Brewers for 1B. With Cano at 2B, Ackley in LF and with none of Cruz/Morrison/Hart being able to play RF let alone CF, that leaves Cruz/Morrison/Hart/Smoak battling for RF/DH/1B. You have to assume that Cruz immediately becomes the RF, leaving Morrison/Smoak/Hart for 2 positions. Additionally, I think Morales could possibly be back in play soon for the Mariners given the draft pick attached to him. If I am the Mariners right now and I am trying to be a playoff contender, I sign Cruz and Morales, who both could be available on discounted contracts. I move Morrison to LF and put Ackley and Smoak on the block. A middle of the order that looks like this is pretty menacing:

 

2. Seager

3. Cano

4. Cruz

5. Morales

6. Hart

7. Morrison

 

Ackley & Smoak may become available very shortly if the Mariners play their cards right and the Brewers would be smart to throw their hat into that ring to try and acquire both of them. A Brewer lineup that looks like the following has a little more depth to it than it does today:

 

1. Segura

2. Ackley/Davis

3. Braun

4. Ramirez

5. Lucroy

6. Gomez

7. Smoak

8. Davis/Ackley

[DR28]

I would love to see Smoak as a Brewer... I would think his power would project well at Miller Park.

[Bnowell4evr]

The more I think about it the more I'm convinced that the Brewers are done making moves at 1B. I'd love to add a solid LH bat that can hit somewhere in the 4-5-6 spot in the lineup against RHP but that guy isn't available without blowing a hole elsewhere on our team. If the Mariners added Cruz and or Morales in FA they would be targeting a top of the rotation guy (Lohse/Gallardo or better) which would kill the Brewers chances of making a run this year.

 

I'd consider moving Estrada in a deal for a 1B but only if we are able to sign a suitable replacement for him in FA. It's nice having Tyler Thornburg because he gives you some flexibility on if you want to sign a starter like Johan with upside or a reliable back end reliever like KRod. Now risking a major dropoff in pitching to find a slight improvement at 1B seems silly but there's also a chance that Smoak dominates away from Safeco and Johan comes back midseason and gives us a much needed LH starter with top of the rotation ability. All of this is probably way too much of a risk for an organization that doesn't take many risks so it's much more likely we take our lumps this year with one of Overbay/Francisco in a platoon with Reynolds. Our best hope is probably Morris stepping up but if that doesn't happen we will probably just sign Adam Dunn in FA next year.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Mariners aren't going to get a top of the rotation guy for Smoak. Estrada makes the most sense. If he's average this year he's going to start getting expensive. I think Thornburg is ready and might be better than Estrada anyway. With the likes of Smith, Nelson, and Burgos, I don't see depth as an issue either. Besides if any of Lohse, Garza, or Gallardo goes down for extended time, they probably aren't going to win anyway. The downside might be that Thornburg might be a great option in short relief. I believe they can contend but the margin is pretty thin already. Smoak would balance out the lineup and eliminate the need to carry either Francisco or Overbay who to me are this years versions of Gonzalez and Betancourt. That's a bigger plus for me. I like Reynolds to face lefties at 1B and fill in for Ramirez. Even with Smoak, he'd see close to 300 ABs.

 

Knowing Melvin, he'd try to get a young pitcher thrown in from Seattle.

[Warning Track Power]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/mariners-in-talks-with-cruz-willing-to-offer-multiple-years-1.html

 

Cruz to Seattle may be happening shortly. I am really beginning to believe that DM will jump at the possibility of acquiring the odd man out for our 1B (Smoak/Morrison). It makes too much sense as either Smoak/Morrison are upgrades over Reynolds/Francisco/Overbay.

[DR28]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/mariners-in-talks-with-cruz-willing-to-offer-multiple-years-1.html

 

Cruz to Seattle may be happening shortly. I am really beginning to believe that DM will jump at the possibility of acquiring the odd man out for our 1B (Smoak/Morrison). It makes too much sense as either Smoak/Morrison are upgrades over Reynolds/Francisco/Overbay.

 

Bring on Justin Smoak... Just don't overpay for him!

[monty57]

I posted this earlier, but:

 

Smoak's career line is 1712 AB, .227 avg / .314 OBP / .386 SLG / .700 OPS

 

Morrison's career line is 1295 AB, .249 avg / .337 OBP / .427 SLG / .764 OPS

 

meanwhile,

 

Francisco's career line is 709 AB, .243 avg / .300 OBP / .432 SLG / .731 OPS

 

Reynolds' career line is 3418 AB, .233 avg / .329 OBP / .464 SLG / .793 OPS

 

None of these guys is very good, but if we gave up one of our MLB starting pitchers to get Smoak or Morrison, I'd be pretty upset. If one of them was cut by Seattle, we may take a flyer on him, but they're not worth giving up someone of value. I'm not even sure that either of them are better than the guys we have, so I think we'd be better off simply going with a Reynolds / Francisco combo at 1B.

[TURBO]

Monty = the voice of reason...

 

If we can get Smoak for almost nothing, a low level no ceiling minor league player, why not? Anything of value and I'd pass...

[TooLiveBrew]

None of these guys is very good, but if we gave up one of our MLB starting pitchers to get Smoak or Morrison, I'd be pretty upset. If one of them was cut by Seattle, we may take a flyer on him, but they're not worth giving up someone of value. I'm not even sure that either of them are better than the guys we have, so I think we'd be better off simply going with a Reynolds / Francisco combo at 1B.

I agree with Turbo that this is pretty spot-on.

 

However, it's really disheartening that the best that the Brewers might be able to do is a mid-.700s OPS out of first base. It's one thing to have to move on post-Fielder... it's something entirely different to be settling for close to replacement-level offense at the easiest position (in general) to find a bat... for the second season in a row.

[Warning Track Power]

None of these guys is very good, but if we gave up one of our MLB starting pitchers to get Smoak or Morrison, I'd be pretty upset. If one of them was cut by Seattle, we may take a flyer on him, but they're not worth giving up someone of value. I'm not even sure that either of them are better than the guys we have, so I think we'd be better off simply going with a Reynolds / Francisco combo at 1B.

 

Reynolds is 30, Smoak is 27 and Morrison is 26. Pre-2010 Smoak was the #13 prospect in all of baseball and Morrison the #20 according to Baseball America. I know baseball is littered with failed prospects galore so just because they were ranked that high doesn't mean it will translate at the MLB level. Moreover, I am not advocating trading anything of value i.e. Tyler Thornburg or Jimmy Nelson. I am more advocating for the acquisition of talent given a reasonable price tag. Everything being equal, I would be surprised if any diehard Brewer fans would prefer to have Reynolds or Francisco at 1B over Smoak or Morrison. Given this, why would we not at least attempt to pry one of those guys out of Seattle given our glaring need at 1B and their relative depth at 1B/RF/DH provided they sign Cruz?

[Warning Track Power]

However, it's really disheartening that the best that the Brewers might be able to do is a mid-.700s OPS out of first base. It's one thing to have to move on post-Fielder... it's something entirely different to be settling for close to replacement-level offense at the easiest position (in general) to find a bat... for the second season in a row.

I feel you TLB...however, who would have thought that Gamel would blow out ACLs in 2012 and 2013, as well as have Hart's knees fail him as well? Sticking a platoon of Reynolds/Francisco/Overbay at 1B in 2014 when you had all offseason to acquire a better option is downright embarrassing.

[brewcrewdue80]

I posted this earlier, but:

 

Smoak's career line is 1712 AB, .227 avg / .314 OBP / .386 SLG / .700 OPS

 

Morrison's career line is 1295 AB, .249 avg / .337 OBP / .427 SLG / .764 OPS

 

meanwhile,

 

Francisco's career line is 709 AB, .243 avg / .300 OBP / .432 SLG / .731 OPS

 

Reynolds' career line is 3418 AB, .233 avg / .329 OBP / .464 SLG / .793 OPS

 

None of these guys is very good, but if we gave up one of our MLB starting pitchers to get Smoak or Morrison, I'd be pretty upset. If one of them was cut by Seattle, we may take a flyer on him, but they're not worth giving up someone of value. I'm not even sure that either of them are better than the guys we have, so I think we'd be better off simply going with a Reynolds / Francisco combo at 1B.

 

Yes the numbers don't lie but what about home park advantage/disadvantage? Marlins stadium/Mariners stadiums they both aren't hitter friendly. And neither are the ballparks they have played in their divisions. Reynold's/Francisco's slash lines are mostly of the opposite playing in friendly homeparks/divisions. When you look at Morrison's line and that homepark/division he really stands out as far as career numbers go. Bump everything up 20pts lets say to a .269/.357/.447 line then is .824OPS I wouldn't think that is out of line. The only problem is Seattle gave up Carter Capps for Morrison. 3rd rd pick in 2011 mind you so while his numbers aren't great in appearance he possesses 10k/9 ability and just may have been rushed up too quickly due to all those Seattle pitching injuries. So to me if I'm Seattle and I'm asking for a player in return it comes around that kind of value. Probably like Burgos/Figaro/Kintzler/Nelson list of guys. Maybe Blazek/Hellweg even. Just my guess, I can't see Thornburg being traded away at this point unless it was for somebody truly helpful to the Brewers Roster future or present. And not just for a guy who's replacement level with the hopes he does better than that playing in Milwaukee.

[brwrsfan]

However, it's really disheartening that the best that the Brewers might be able to do is a mid-.700s OPS out of first base. It's one thing to have to move on post-Fielder... it's something entirely different to be settling for close to replacement-level offense at the easiest position (in general) to find a bat... for the second season in a row.

I feel you TLB...however, who would have thought that Gamel would blow out ACLs in 2012 and 2013, as well as have Hart's knees fail him as well? Sticking a platoon of Reynolds/Francisco/Overbay at 1B in 2014 when you had all offseason to acquire a better option is downright embarrassing.

 

Not only that, but Hart spurned the Brewers offer (despite his statements saying he'd stay). Morris could have been the guy but he struggled in AAA and Doug seemingly forgot about him in September. We had guys around to replace Prince, but it all seemingly went south at the same time and this is where we sit. The biggest problem for me, is that I don't see a long term solution anywhere unless we sign a legit FA at some point (unlikely) or Morris figures it out (unlikely IMO).

[jerichoholicninja]

I posted this earlier, but:

 

Smoak's career line is 1712 AB, .227 avg / .314 OBP / .386 SLG / .700 OPS

 

Morrison's career line is 1295 AB, .249 avg / .337 OBP / .427 SLG / .764 OPS

 

meanwhile,

 

Francisco's career line is 709 AB, .243 avg / .300 OBP / .432 SLG / .731 OPS

 

Reynolds' career line is 3418 AB, .233 avg / .329 OBP / .464 SLG / .793 OPS

 

None of these guys is very good, but if we gave up one of our MLB starting pitchers to get Smoak or Morrison, I'd be pretty upset. If one of them was cut by Seattle, we may take a flyer on him, but they're not worth giving up someone of value. I'm not even sure that either of them are better than the guys we have, so I think we'd be better off simply going with a Reynolds / Francisco combo at 1B.

 

Yes the numbers don't lie but what about home park advantage/disadvantage? Marlins stadium/Mariners stadiums they both aren't hitter friendly. And neither are the ballparks they have played in their divisions. Reynold's/Francisco's slash lines are mostly of the opposite playing in friendly homeparks/divisions. When you look at Morrison's line and that homepark/division he really stands out as far as career numbers go. Bump everything up 20pts lets say to a .269/.357/.447 line then is .824OPS I wouldn't think that is out of line. The only problem is Seattle gave up Carter Capps for Morrison. 3rd rd pick in 2011 mind you so while his numbers aren't great in appearance he possesses 10k/9 ability and just may have been rushed up too quickly due to all those Seattle pitching injuries. So to me if I'm Seattle and I'm asking for a player in return it comes around that kind of value. Probably like Burgos/Figaro/Kintzler/Nelson list of guys. Maybe Blazek/Hellweg even. Just my guess, I can't see Thornburg being traded away at this point unless it was for somebody truly helpful to the Brewers Roster future or present. And not just for a guy who's replacement level with the hopes he does better than that playing in Milwaukee.

 

Career OPS+ for each:

 

Smoak - 97, season of 82, 106, 85, 113

 

Morrison - 107, seasons of 129, 116, 89, 95 (his OPS+ took a nose dive with the move to Marlins Park, I'm thinking that might have to do with not having enough data to make a correct park effect factor yet)

 

Francisco - 95, seasons of 200 (25 PA), 88, 97, 88, 93

 

Reynolds - 108, seasons of 109, 96, 127, 97, 116, 107, 96

[endaround]

The big difference is that Francisco is a terrible defensive player. Smoak and Morrison (or Middlebrooks) would likely be better. Overbay would also likely be better defensively but given his age he also could completely collapse offensively.

[nate82]

I wouldn't be surprised if Rogers beats out Morris in spring training and may be considered as the first one who gets called up if Reynolds is not playing all that great.

 

Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard are two players that come to mind who the Brewers may trade for mid season. Not sure the Brewers have the prospects to get Howard but Dunn is a real possibility and is someone I could see Melvin going after as he wouldn't cost a big time prospect.

[Warning Track Power]

Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard are two players that come to mind who the Brewers may trade for mid season. Not sure the Brewers have the prospects to get Howard but Dunn is a real possibility and is someone I could see Melvin going after as he wouldn't cost a big time prospect.

I posted this in the Billy Butler thread and think it still holds relevance here:

 

Player 1: 3398 PA, 194 HR, 403 BB, 1118 Ks, .232/.329/.485

HR: 1 in every 17.5 ABs

BB: 1 in every 8.4 ABs

K: 1 in every 3.0 ABs

 

Player 2: 3947 PA, 202 HR, 459 BB, 1276 Ks, .233/.329/.464

HR: 1 in every 19.5 ABs

BB: 1 in every 8.5 ABs

K: 1 in every 3.0 ABs

 

Player 3: 7817 PA, 440 HR, 1246 BB 2220 Ks, .238/.366/.495

HR: 1 in every 17.8 ABs

BB: 1 in every 6.3 ABs

K: 1 in every 3.5 ABs

 

 

Player 1: Russell Branyan

Player 2: Mark Reynolds

Player 3: Adam Dunn

 

If the Brewers are going to upgrade 1B, I think it should/will either be with a flamed out prospect with potential still like Smoak or Morrison or a Billy Butler type. Adam Dunn is an older, more expensive version of Mark Reynolds.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Howard makes $25 million a year, am I missing something.

[TooLiveBrew]

If the Brewers are going to upgrade 1B, I think it should/will either be with a flamed out prospect with potential still like Smoak or Morrison or a Billy Butler type. Adam Dunn is an older, more expensive version of Mark Reynolds.

While he may not still be the same hitter he once was, the ~40 point edge Dunn has over Reynolds in OBP alone makes him significantly more valuable as a hitter. Now, Reynolds's glove v. Dunn's 'glove' at 1B might mitigate that, but still. To call them the same hitter over the course of their careers isn't accurate (not to mention the difference in SLG & overall OPS gap -- .861 to .793).