First Base 2014

[MNBrew]

I would still never part with Thornburg. I would give up Pena or Hellweg; but Thornburg showed too much potential in late 2013 to trade him from Ike Davis. Its not like Thornburg is a soft tossing finesse pitcher either; he has legitimate stuff

I'm right there with you, Fondy. I'd start by offering Figaro and Blazek -- a rubbery power arm and the guy who was a decent Cardinals prospect last year but fell back, just like Davis. That might get laughed at, but that's comparable value considering Davis' 2013 MLB performance.

 

I'd still rather have Michael Young and wish the Brewers would simply get that done & quit dallying with Ike Davis.

[brewcrewdue80]

5 years of team control left for TT but the list of 6'00" and under starters that don't break down in that time is very, very short. TT showed us something last year for sure, but in the grand scheme of things, how much better was he than Fiers the year before? Seems like fools gold to me. Sell.

 

Thornburg has more pitches to throw vs what Fiers had. Fiers was never considered a SP prospect, a flat fastball, but a quirky deceptive delivery, worked to his advantage in the beginning but much like Dontrelle Willis or even Hideo Nomo, once you see the delivery enough and get it timed, boom he's no longer effective.

 

Thornburg is a SP who's height makes it skeptical of sticking as a SP. Not his pitching ability/stuff.

Why is Thornburg's 5'11" a concern of ability when Marco Estrada is 5'11"? Why aren't we concerned about Marco?

 

If Thornburg can locate his multiple pitches he will stick as a starter much like Estrada has. Even so, I will take Thornburg in the bullpen before taking in Davis. Thinking of Thornburg's FB playing up out of the bullpen with his multiple pitches I feel like he's a solid under 3.4ERA Bullpen guy for the next 5years on this team locked in.

You can pair the Bullpen with Will Smith, Hellweg, Blazek maybe even eventually Jungmann(losing faith he can be a SP) and that's a lot of bang for you buck and solidness in your bullpen for a long time.

 

Just say no to sending Thornburg for Davis. Send them Pena or nothing and stick with what we have.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Yup. Do not give up Thornburg for Davis. That will haunt us for a long long time.

[nate82]

Thornburg has more pitches to throw vs what Fiers had. Fiers was never considered a SP prospect, a flat fastball, but a quirky deceptive delivery, worked to his advantage in the beginning but much like Dontrelle Willis or even Hideo Nomo, once you see the delivery enough and get it timed, boom he's no longer effective.

 

 

There is very little to no truth to any of your statements about Fiers. Fiers was considered a SP prospect a very limited upside prospect but a SP prospect. Fiers also didn't have a deceptive delivery and even if he did that wasn't even the reason why he was having success in fact all pitchers have a deceptive delivery there are just some that are more extreme than others. You have to hide the ball well or the hitter is going to know what you are throwing so there is deception in every pitchers delivery. Back on track now Fiers was locating everything perfectly when he first came up which is why he was successful not because of his delivery.

 

If you look back at the starts in 12 when Fiers was doing well you will see very little hard hit balls as he was locating his pitches. You can have below average stuff and be successful in MLB but you have to have almost perfect accuracy with your pitches.

 

The reason why Fiers didn't have success last year is because he didn't locate anything at all it actually showed at the end of the 2012 season when he was starting to struggle. The problem with Fiers is that he doesn't really have an above average pitch that he can rely on where it doesn't really matter where he locates it. Thornburg also doesn't have an above average pitch so he is also likely to fall back down to Earth also.

 

On to the topic at hand there is very little chance Melvin trades Thornburg for Davis as he made it perfectly clear that Thornburg is not available during the winter meetings. In fact Melvin hinted at Thornburg being in the running for the #5 starter spot. Melvin also compared Thornburg's final few starts to that of Wacha's which the stats were very similar though I don't believe Thornburg will have that type of success going forward he reminds me of Rich Harden though I don't believe Thornburg can go more than 6 innings per start so he is limited as a #5 or #4 type of a starter.

 

I don't see the Brewers going into spring training with Morris as the possible starting 1B and Melvin will trade for someone. I wonder if the Reds would trade Neftali Soto he is blocked at 1B by Votto and he doesn't really profile all that well in the OF. He wouldn't be a bad gamble but I am not sure the Reds would do a deal sending him to a division rival.

[SoupTown]

Fiers had many articles written explaining that his odd, ball hiding, deceptive delivery caused his 89 mph fastball to be 'onto' hitters before they knew. I think a number of MLB batters commented to back that thinking up.

 

Melvin is always funny how he can take a handful of games or weeks and then project that onto a player (his players) to explain how all will be OK going forward. If we end up having 5 poor months and 1 great one, Doug will explain the 'real' Crew is the 1 great month x 6. Ignore the other five months like they are the outliers.

 

Even this winter we have the chant how the Crew was one of the top few staffs in baseball post all star break. And always slipped in there is: and our staff was better than the Cardinals.

[nate82]

Fiers had many articles written explaining that his odd, ball hiding, deceptive delivery caused his 89 mph fastball to be 'onto' hitters before they knew. I think a number of MLB batters commented to back that thinking up.

 

That is just hiding the ball well that doesn't have anything to do with his delivery. All pitchers do this and there really isn't anything odd or deceptive in his delivery.

[jerichoholicninja]

Fiers had many articles written explaining that his odd, ball hiding, deceptive delivery caused his 89 mph fastball to be 'onto' hitters before they knew. I think a number of MLB batters commented to back that thinking up.

 

That is just hiding the ball well that doesn't have anything to do with his delivery. All pitchers do this and there really isn't anything odd or deceptive in his delivery.

 

There is quite a lot of oddity and deception in his delivery. He's not Dontrelle Willis but his delivery is unique. I can't think of any MLB pitcher that brings the glove as high or pushes the ball as low as he does. And he steps across his body a bit. It's like a combination of Lincecum and Jered Weaver.

[DR28]

Mets can scratch off one more potential suitor for Ike Davis... Pirates acquired 1B Chris McGuiness from Texas.

 

Sandy just lower your asking price for Ike and this would be done already! What's wrong with Hellweg or Pena!

[TooLiveBrew]

Mets can scratch off one more potential suitor for Ike Davis... Pirates acquired 1B Chris McGuiness from Texas.

 

Sandy just lower your asking price for Ike and this would be done already! What's wrong with Hellweg or Pena!

I thought the same thing at first when I saw that deal was done, but McGuinness had been DFA'd to make room for Shin-Soo Choo. McGuinness doesn't have anywhere near the MiLB track record that Davis does, so I'm not sure he's anything more than a guy the Bucs were able to get very cheaply. Based on his stats, he looks more like an organizational soldier than a viable MLB 1B option (even if it'd only be as a platoon guy) -- he only mustered a .713 OPS v. right-handed pitching in the PCL last season.

[monty57]

Sandy just lower your asking price for Ike and this would be done already! What's wrong with Hellweg or Pena!

 

He's in the driver's seat, with the best available option available, a number of teams bidding for him, and no looming "trade deadline" forcing his hand. He's doing just what he should, which is to ask for more than Davis is probably worth to see if any team is desparate enough to bite. If no one takes him up, then he takes the best offer, which may well be someone of Hellweg or Pena's ability.

 

At the end of the day, only one team will get Davis, and it will go to whoever gives up the most in trade. The rest of the teams will have to go with other options, which for the Brewers may mean a Halton/Francisco combo. Melvin has to feel to some degree that the fans would dislike going into the season without some perceived upgrade at first. Therefore, I think the Mets are doing exactly what they should. It's the teams looking at trading for Davis (and their fanbase) that will feel the pressure. One of them will crack and give up more than they'd like.

[DR28]

Sandy just lower your asking price for Ike and this would be done already! What's wrong with Hellweg or Pena!

 

He's in the driver's seat, with the best available option available, a number of teams bidding for him, and no looming "trade deadline" forcing his hand. He's doing just what he should, which is to ask for more than Davis is probably worth to see if any team is desparate enough to bite. If no one takes him up, then he takes the best offer, which may well be someone of Hellweg or Pena's ability.

 

At the end of the day, only one team will get Davis, and it will go to whoever gives up the most in trade. The rest of the teams will have to go with other options, which for the Brewers may mean a Halton/Francisco combo. Melvin has to feel to some degree that the fans would dislike going into the season without some perceived upgrade at first. Therefore, I think the Mets are doing exactly what they should. It's the teams looking at trading for Davis (and their fanbase) that will feel the pressure. One of them will crack and give up more than they'd like.

 

Great post... I never really thought about all of that until you said it... Guess we'll see what happens.

[JohnBriggs12]

Sandy just lower your asking price for Ike and this would be done already! What's wrong with Hellweg or Pena!

 

He's in the driver's seat, with the best available option available, a number of teams bidding for him, and no looming "trade deadline" forcing his hand. He's doing just what he should, which is to ask for more than Davis is probably worth to see if any team is desparate enough to bite. If no one takes him up, then he takes the best offer, which may well be someone of Hellweg or Pena's ability.

 

At the end of the day, only one team will get Davis, and it will go to whoever gives up the most in trade. The rest of the teams will have to go with other options, which for the Brewers may mean a Halton/Francisco combo. Melvin has to feel to some degree that the fans would dislike going into the season without some perceived upgrade at first. Therefore, I think the Mets are doing exactly what they should. It's the teams looking at trading for Davis (and their fanbase) that will feel the pressure. One of them will crack and give up more than they'd like.

 

I think the fans will dislike losing Thornburg a lot more than having to go with a Halton/Francisco or a Michael Young as the primary 1B option instead of someone like an Ike Davis. I don't see the Brewers "cracking" here. We're not talking about the next Cecil Cooper. If either Seattle or Texas signs Nelson Cruz, then it's quite possible a Justin Smoak or Mitch Moreland would become available and the Red Sox could find Carp expendable too.

[monty57]

Briggs, I agree. Trying to balance the scales of how fans will perceive a move, along with trying to determine if another team is going to offer more are just a couple of additional things a GM has to consider on top of the difficult task of actually trying to determine what moves make the most "baseball sense" for the franchise. Being a GM is a very tough job.

 

The Mets are just casting out lines to all interested parties to see if any will bite. They probably hope someone will, but expect they'll come back with either "you can't have the player you asked for, but we'll give you {X}," or "you can have the player you asked for if you add {X} to the deal." Whoever bites on the initial offer, or comes back with the best counter-offer will get Davis.

 

As to whether Davis is worth it, I don't know. I like him as a LH part of a platoon, as he has definite potential to be a .850-.900 OPS player in that role, but how much do you give up for that, especially at a time when the team isn't exactly itching to add salary?

 

Personally, I like your previous idea of Colvin on a minor league deal. That's not mutually exclusive to signing someone else, but it is a low cost, high potential reward signing. But, with what's on the table, at least a Davis deal would give us a young-ish, high potential LH-hitter who actually knows how to defend at 1B. It would also limit Francisco to LH power bat off the bench, which is a win in itself. I don't want to lose a MLB-ready SP prospect, but I'll just have to trust in Melvin's judgement to determine which of his MLB-ready SP prospects he's willing to dangle in trade.

[TURBO]

 

I think the fans will dislike losing Thornburg a lot more than having to go with a Halton/Francisco or a Michael Young as the primary 1B option instead of someone like an Ike Davis.

 

 

The casual fan won't know better... The casual fan may not even remember who Thornburg is. The casual fan knows nothing of minor league prospects and how thin our pitching prospects are.

 

Brewerfan.net brewer fans SHOULD be furious if Thornburg is dealt for Davis.

[patrickgpe]

I am still intrigued by the idea of Morales. Unlike last season the brewers wouldn't have to give up a 1st to get him, but a 2nd.

 

I doubt they will do it though. The minor league system still needs a lot of quality draft picks to begin to rebuild it back to where it used to be. In addition I can't see the team competing for a playoff spot. Its not a move you make to try to finish 500 and get in the upper half of the division.

[MVP2110]

Is it possible we could add someone like Michael Young and Ike Davis, I think Young could get enough at bats as a super sub playing for Davis against tough lefties, giving Aram a day off here and there and maybe even covering at 2nd for awhile. Im intrigued by the idea of Young in that role.

[logan82]

I am still intrigued by the idea of Morales. Unlike last season the brewers wouldn't have to give up a 1st to get him, but a 2nd.

 

I doubt they will do it though. The minor league system still needs a lot of quality draft picks to begin to rebuild it back to where it used to be. In addition I can't see the team competing for a playoff spot. Its not a move you make to try to finish 500 and get in the upper half of the division.

Yes they would have to give up a first round pick to sign him.

 

I thought we would see a story about how Mark A. invited him to his house around Christmas and a deal was already signed.

[patrickgpe]

i thought if you pick in the upper half of the 1st round the pick is moved to the 2nd?

[logan82]

Only the top 10 are protected.

[JohnBriggs12]

I wouldn't reject the idea of Morales out of hand. If you can get him well below market because he costs a draft pick, that might be a good investment in the long run. It might mean they have more dollars from greater fan interest to keep their own longer. He wouldn't turn a 75 win team into a contender, but they may now be an 85 win team when all is said and done, and adding a quality bat like Morales might add another 3 or 4 wins to that. Plus, he'll turn 31 in June and figures to have several more peak seasons in him.

 

If all the dire predictions do come to pass, they can still build the farm system up by dealing off a Lohse, Ramirez, or a Gallardo at the deadline or by making a blockbuster involving a core player.

[davego]

I'd rather that DM signs Young if it prevents Tyler from being traded.

[brewcrewdue80]

Let's put this in a simple comparison. Ike Davis is essentially, Mark Reynolds. Mark Reynolds was actually a better player at this point in his career than Davis with more HR better BA and WAR. In his first year in Arb Reynolds was traded for: David Hernandez who had given up 36HRs in 180IPs on his career to that point had roughly a 5ERA, had been removed from SP to RP role just nothing promising. And Kameron Mickolio who lasted all of 6 apperances for the remainder of his career.

Now, Hernandez has turned in to the RP that everyone expects Thornburg to be a consistent presence out of the bullpen. But Hernandez hadn't had the start Thornburg has which is being a team's top prospect, going out and pitching as well as expectations or better. Just no way can you trade him for Ike Davis unless the Mets threw in a prospect or RP project that hadn't panned out like Jeurys Familia.

 

Edit add: I don't think the Mets are in the driver's seat when their decision to move Davis is money based. The longer it takes for them to move him, means money spent they don't want to spend. Each payroll date hit by Davis will amount to approx. 291k or more than Thornburg's for the entire season after the 1st month. We're still 13weeks away til opening day so a long time to go by before that happens. If the trade worked for the Mets it's 3million saved for them on payroll while shedding Davis and adding Thornburg....I just feel like there may be some GMs out there who'd have the thought that you couldn't pay them 3million to take on Davis much less increase their payroll 3mil to acquire him while losing your team's previous year's #1 prospect.

[JohnBriggs12]

Article in mlbtraderumors suggests that Kendrys Morales might still be out there after the draft. If that's the case, go ahead with the plan B guys, Francisco, Halton, Morris. If one of those emerges, great, If not go after Morales, when you can load most of his deal beyond 2014 after Ramirez and Weeks are off the books. Still also might be worth bringing in Young as a great swing guy in the IF.

[DR28]

An article on MLBTradeRumors mentioned the Brewers as the only team to not sign someone to a Major League deal...

 

Doug better have some damn good ideas up his sleeve to have done nothing at this point to improve our team!!!

[MNBrew]

An article on MLBTradeRumors mentioned the Brewers as the only team to not sign someone to a Major League deal...

 

Doug better have some damn good ideas up his sleeve to have done nothing at this point to improve our team!!!

FA isn't the only way to improve the team. I'll bet not every MLB team has made a trade that's altered their 40-man roster.

 

Melvin has made a trade from an area of strength (OF) to address an area of need (young strong arm that can start or relieve).

 

It's also 6 more weeks before ST starts and 3 months before Opening Day. There's time to wait to make the (hopefully) right move, plus players out there who'd seem to fit the "right move" category whether by FA or trade.