First Base 2014

[SoupTown]

Worth a read. You will then think 'let us do a flyer on Davis'.

 

His first half of 2013 was historically BAD for a proven hitter. So bad, you likely should ignore it!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ike-davis-and-the-malfunctioning-parachute/

[Eye Black]

Following that article, Ike Davis spent 21 games in AAA during June and into early July and was certainly much better upon returning as shown by the splits SRB provided. Certainly a hard guy to project moving forward.

 

One other guy that is intriguing to me is Scott Van Slyke. If the Dodgers would be willing to part with him, he could be an option to add to the 1B mix as well as serve as a back-up OF. In limited action last year (152 plate appearances) he put up a .240/.342/.465 line. His minor league stats over the past three years have been outstanding, albeit likely PCL aided. His 2011 line in 130 games in the Southern League was .348/.427/.525. He also looks the part with a 6'5" / 250lbs frame not to mention an all-star caliber mustache (oh, and bloodlines too). If the 27 year old Van Slyke wouldn't cost anything of great significance to acquire, he might be worth taking a chance on.

[jerichoholicninja]

For comparison sake:

 

Ike Davis

2010 - 115 OPS+, 3.3 WAR

2011 - 156, 1.2 (36 games)

2012 - 111, .9

2013 - 89, .2

 

Mitch Moreland

2010 - 118, .9

2011 - 93, 0

2012 - 106, .3

2013 - 98, .6

 

Justin Smoak

2010 - 82, -.1

2011 - 77, .8

2012 - 85, -.2

2013 - 113, 1.1

 

Prior to this I was very anti-Davis. Now, I've warmed to the idea. However, I do think he will cost the most which worries me.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Since SF signed Morse, they should be looking to move Brett Pill. He could be a very good option.

[JohnBriggs12]

As someone who had the benefit of watching the final series of the year vs. the Mets from the Mets telecast perspective, I had the opportunity to listen to a long discussion that entire series between Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez about Davis specifically. Hernandez, a great hitter in his own right, was rather critical. I don't remember the specifics, but it's the same you hear about a lot of struggling hitters. He gets behind in counts taking cookies, and then swings at pitcher's pitches. They also talked about him being the kind of guy who gets very down on himself, and that to succeed especially playing in NY, guys need to let go of things quickly.

[JohnBriggs12]

Since SF signed Morse, they should be looking to move Brett Pill. He could be a very good option.

 

I think the Brewers prefer a LH bat or they may have bid on Morse too. Is Pill really any better than Halton? Pill has good minor league numbers (particularly last year at age 28) but I think if you put Halton in Fresno when he's 28, he'd put up big numbers too.

[Warning Track Power]

If I am DM right now, I think you take the chance on Ike and possibly Smoak as well and let them figure it out Hart-LoMo style. Hunter Morris is going to be playing his age 25 season (born October 1988) and the Brewers apparently have zero designs on him being their 1B in 2013. Age 25 and not even being looked at for a huge hole at the MLB level makes it pretty obvious that the Brewers have some serious reservations about him being the "future." For comparison, Ike is only a year and a half older (born March 1987) and has had some success at the MLB level. I think it's time the Brewers bite the bullet and pull the trigger so long as Thornburg isn't involved.

 

I will say, the fact that this deal hasn't been completed yet leads me to believe that DM is working on acquiring someone that we haven't even thought of yet, kind of like how the Greinke deal came relatively out of nowhere. Who that is, I don't know but I won't be surprised when it happens.

[jerichoholicninja]

I will say, the fact that this deal hasn't been completed yet leads me to believe that DM is working on acquiring someone that we haven't even thought of yet, kind of like how the Greinke deal came relatively out of nowhere. Who that is, I don't know but I won't be surprised when it happens.

 

I just glanced over the rotoworld depth charts to see if there was a team that had an extra first baseman. Here are two I found.

 

Adam Dunn - Dunn for Weeks was mentioned before. Doesn't really make sense for either team but Dunn would be an upgrade for us.

 

Brett Wallace - A huge disappointment so far and Jonathan Singleton is ready so Houston might be looking to move Brett. I was surprised he's only 26, it seems like he's been around for quite a while. He's still not very good, though.

[fondybrewfan]

Would Dunn be a competent first baseman?

 

I would love Dunn for his walks and and LH Power (He would probably break the HR distance record at MP if he gets to play 81 games there a year) but man o man his strikeouts will drive me crazy and he is slow as all hell. He walks a ton and hits HR's but to be really valuable he needs that average to be around .240; not the sub .220 in the last 3 years.

 

I would take a flier on him but in a Weeks/Dunn swap we better come out ahead on the salaries. He makes $4 Million more than Weeks in 2014; we better not pay a whole lot more for Dunn than what we are obligated to pay for Weeks.

[Warning Track Power]

I'd rather have Rickie than Dunn. Put it this way, you're dealing Rickie for a worse version of himself.

 

Dunn 162 game average in 2011-2013: .197/.317/.405, 34 HR, 87 RBI

Rickie 162 game average in 2011-2013: .237/.330/.411 22, HR, 59 RBI

 

Rickie is also 3 years younger and at a more premium position. I'd put more money on a Rickie turnaround than a Dunn turnaround.

[fondybrewfan]

Dunn's 3 year splits are skewed a bit by a historically awful 2011 season though. I would guess the splits would favor Dunn by a decent margin just going off of 2012 and 2013. Dunn had an OPS+ of 114 and 103 in 2012 and 2013. Rickie was 93 and 80.

 

If Dunn could OPS somewhere in 750-800 and we pay him around the $11-12 Million we are obligated to pay Rickie; I would say we came out ahead.

[Warning Track Power]

I would still take Rickie, only for the fact that he may have greater value at the deadline than Dunn.

 

I think I am also coming from a standpoint that if the choice is Ike or Dunn, I would go with Ike. I think Ike has too much potential still to not take that chance if Dunn is the only other option. Plus he is cheaper. At best, I think we would be lucky if 2014 Dunn hit .230/.330/.430 30 HR, 80 RBI with terrible D and 200+ Ks. Whereas with Ike, I think he could hit .250/.340/.450 25 HR, 80 RBI with average D and less Ks. For similar production and still with potential to grow, I would choose Ike.

[Roderick]

Hunter Morris is going to be playing his age 25 season (born October 1988) and the Brewers apparently have zero designs on him being their 1B in 2013. Age 25 and not even being looked at for a huge hole at the MLB level makes it pretty obvious that the Brewers have some serious reservations about him being the "future."

 

I did hear DM admit in an interview that he probably should have brought up Morris in September, so I wouldn't say they wrote him off.

[DR28]

Would it be a surprise if Doug doesn't get anyone to play 1B?

 

I mean he wouldn't put us thru another year of Francisco, would he?

[fondybrewfan]

If he doesn't bring anyone ine it would probably end up being an open competition in Spring Training between Morris, Francisco, Halton, and Rogers. Let the man with the best 50 AB's in meaningless spring training games against random AA and AAA pitchers win.

[DR28]

I hope to God that doesn't happen!!

 

Come on Doug, all Ike needs is a change of scenery!! Get it done!!

[SoupTown]

The man leading the Brewers, last September, could not figure out that playing Yuni at first instead of one of our three AA/AAA FIRST basemen was unwise

 

Why don't we just trade all our MLB players under 30. Then every year package up most of our advanced minors talent (assuming they are under 30) for a few more grizzled vets

 

If we do this every year we can go for it and playoff push and be a perennial powerhouse

[jerichoholicninja]

The man leading the Brewers, last September, could not figure out that playing Yuni at first instead of one of our three AA/AAA FIRST basemen was unwise

 

I hate Ron as much as the next guy buy Yuni's playing time was cut in Sept. Yuni started 10 games and got 52 PA, Halton started 11 games got 52 PA.

[DR28]

Heyman tweeted Pirates have their sights set on Ike Davis and Mitch Moreland...

 

Any money says, Pirates get Ike before we do.

[SoupTown]

Thank you for making my point. Halton could have had 100+ at bats. Or Morris 50+

 

Honestly. The brewers should trade their entire AAA and AA roster each year. Scooter only played because their were MULTIPLE injuries in front of him. The year before the young pitchers got starts only because of injuries in front of them

 

If our roster did not have injuries and drug busts we would end up with 40 and 45 year olds throughout the 25 man roster

 

If DM and RR simply do not trust or want rookies they should come clean. The rookies we were FORCED to play out did the vets they replaced. Yet still DM cannot figure out how to use them or trial them or evaluate them or develop them

 

Can you imagine the groans every June by the dozens of youngsters when they hear their name after 'Milwaukee selects...'

[Warning Track Power]

Heyman tweeted Pirates have their sights set on Ike Davis and Mitch Moreland...

 

Any money says, Pirates get Ike before we do.

Yup...I have no doubt. This offseason has been pretty frustrating so far.

[DR28]

Heyman tweeted Pirates have their sights set on Ike Davis and Mitch Moreland...

 

Any money says, Pirates get Ike before we do.

Yup...I have no doubt. This offseason has been pretty frustrating so far.

 

Yea it sure has... I honestly don't think Doug will do anything about 1B.

 

God I hope I'm wrong!

[TooLiveBrew]

Heyman tweeted Pirates have their sights set on Ike Davis and Mitch Moreland...

 

Any money says, Pirates get Ike before we do.

Yup...I have no doubt. This offseason has been pretty frustrating so far.

 

Yea it sure has... I honestly don't think Doug will do anything about 1B.

 

God I hope I'm wrong!

Part of me wonders if, with Thornburg's name floated as having been discussed, Melvin will pass on a higher risk/reward type move like Ike Davis & decide to just go big & trade for a good bat at 1B. Knowing Melvin, the crap-saster that was 2013 Brewers firstbasemen had to eat away at his soul. I wonder if Warning Track Power has sniffed out what's really going on (post #232).

[sveumrules]

The reason our young players have had to force their way into the major league lineup of late is because for the most part they haven't been very good or highly regarded. Some people think Taylor Green still hasn't gotten a fair shake when the answer is that Taylor Green just isn't very good.

 

When the prospects were of the caliber of Hardy, Weeks, Fielder and Braun they were rushed to the big club or trades were made to open space for them. The guys we have now aren't as good so they have to work harder to earn their way/prove they belong. Makes sense to me.

[MJLiverock]

Thank you for making my point. Halton could have had 100+ at bats. Or Morris 50+

 

'

 

Yuni's playing time in Sept. wasn't at 1b it was at 3rd or 2nd if it wasn't as a PH so it really had no impact on Halton or Morris getting AB's.