Would you trade Segura for Shelby Miller?

[paul253]

I don't like the idea of including Taylor or Roache to get Adams. Adams really struggles against lefties and may end up needing a platoon. Taylor and Roache are two of our most promising positional prospects and could end up eventually being top 100 guys. If we wanted Adams I'd rather give up someone with a lower ceiling.

[nate82]

No I wouldn't trade Segura for Miller as it doesn't really improve the team all that much. Trading Segura for Miller doesn't really help the Brewers win now or in the next couple of years. It would be Ben Sheets all over again. Miller would be the ace and then no one behind him with very poor defense supporting him wouldn't be my idea of turning things around. Now if Miller was in AA I would do the trade but since he already has MLB service time I wouldn't trade Segura for Miller.

[brewcrewdue80]

No I wouldn't trade Segura for Miller as it doesn't really improve the team all that much. Trading Segura for Miller doesn't really help the Brewers win now or in the next couple of years. It would be Ben Sheets all over again. Miller would be the ace and then no one behind him with very poor defense supporting him wouldn't be my idea of turning things around. Now if Miller was in AA I would do the trade but since he already has MLB service time I wouldn't trade Segura for Miller.

 

So Nate that is saying the team today has no pitching. Which I pretty much agree. But if you and I can see that then why do we keep Gomez,Gallardo,Lohse,Aoki? Even Henderson. Put ARam/Weeks but they are high priced damaged goods.

 

Why keep guys in the 3WAR range or above with expiring contracts if we have zero Pitching to be competitive? Why not look to get younger team controlled players who can be 3+WAR guys on the team in the future when maybe the team finds an Ace and a couple #2s to grow up with?

 

 

The idea of Miller for Segura is that clearly Mark A. and DM aren't willing to let their team look like they can't play .500 or better baseball. And if your goal if to be above .500 then maybe your goal becomes making the playoffs. The Brewers have to prepare for a Playoff Matchup scenario. Who's the #1,#2,#3 pitchers? And relying on Lohse,Gallardo,Peralta just doesn't do it with Gallardo's season last year. So then Miller, Lohse, and whoever is pitching best between Gallardo/Peralta becomes #3.

 

Also, to consider in the trade is how have the extension talks with Segura been going? Is he a guy that you are offering 7years 45-50mil? Oh is he a guy asking for 7years maybe 65-70mil? If you're that far apart, You sell high now before the 1st half Segura Shine fades if he's more the 2nd half Segura moving forward.

[nate82]

 

So Nate that is saying the team today has no pitching. Which I pretty much agree. But if you and I can see that then why do we keep Gomez,Gallardo,Lohse,Aoki? Even Henderson. Put ARam/Weeks but they are high priced damaged goods.

 

Not really the team does have pitching it is just that removing Segura creates a bigger hole and when Gallardo, Lohse, Aoki, and Aram are gone the hole gets even bigger. Lohse will probably be traded at the middle of the season where his value should be the highest. The Brewers are not going to get a great prospect for him but a B type prospect is probable. Aram I wouldn't be surprised to see traded during this off season if he isn't then I don't see him being traded at all. Gallardo is someone the Brewers have to wait on meaning he has very little value right now and if they want to trade him they will have to wait until the deadline to do so. Again you can expect a B type prospect the Dbacks make sense here as Skaggs is that B type prospect and probably more along the B-/C+ type prospect in my opinion. Aoki maybe traded this off season but again I don't expect much in return right now the only team that was interested in Aoki has been the Mets and they were only willing to part with Davis for him. So the market for Aoki looks to be very limited though it could pick up if the Red Sox don't resign Ellsbury as Aoki fills a need in terms of OBP that the Red Sox will be losing. The A's make some sense here but I don't see them making a run on Aoki unless they get him at a return that is favorable to them. I could see the Orioles flipping Markakis for Aoki but that doesn't really help the Brewers out. The Mariners are a wild card for Aoki but I don't see them pursuing Aoki as they are looking for a middle of the order type of a bat and Aoki is definitely not that type of a player.

 

Why keep guys in the 3WAR range or above with expiring contracts if we have zero Pitching to be competitive? Why not look to get younger team controlled players who can be 3+WAR guys on the team in the future when maybe the team finds an Ace and a couple #2s to grow up with?

 

The Brewers still have to field a team and there is no way Mark A is going to put a sub standard team on the field. I don't see this as a problem at all you can start the season with these players and then trade them during the middle of the year. The players could play over their heads and become very attractive during the trade deadline or at the end of the year giving the Brewers more pieces to acquire the talent they need.

 

 

The idea of Miller for Segura is that clearly Mark A. and DM aren't willing to let their team look like they can't play .500 or better baseball. And if your goal if to be above .500 then maybe your goal becomes making the playoffs. The Brewers have to prepare for a Playoff Matchup scenario. Who's the #1,#2,#3 pitchers? And relying on Lohse,Gallardo,Peralta just doesn't do it with Gallardo's season last year. So then Miller, Lohse, and whoever is pitching best between Gallardo/Peralta becomes #3.

 

Prepare for a playoff matchup scenario? What is that? Pitching in the playoffs is not about playoff matchup scenario or whatever made up silly thing the talking heads come up with. Look at the 2007 playoffs Jeff Suppan was pitching like an ace. There are more examples of this where #5 type pitchers play above their heads because they get on a streak. How did the Rays do this year with their pitching staff? How about the Tigers? Both the Tigers and the Rays had better pitching staffs than the Red Sox yet they went on to win the World Series. While it is nice to have a great pitching staff it is not something that is essential to winning in the playoffs. The playoffs is baseball is still very much luck based as in which team is hot and which team is not. The Dodgers pitching staff was about equal to the Braves the biggest difference there was that Atlanta's offense was bad while the Dodgers was on a hot streak. When the Dodgers played the Cardinals there bats were cold and when the Cardinals played the Red Sox their offense was really cold along with some pitchers starting to get tired at the end of the year. There is more to the playoffs than pitching matchups as I wouldn't be surprised if the current Brewers pitching rotation would go out and have 4 great games and sweep the Cardinals the way the Cardinals offense was playing in the world series.

 

Also, to consider in the trade is how have the extension talks with Segura been going? Is he a guy that you are offering 7years 45-50mil? Oh is he a guy asking for 7years maybe 65-70mil? If you're that far apart, You sell high now before the 1st half Segura Shine fades if he's more the 2nd half Segura moving forward.

 

This is a non factor as the Brewers were the only ones to exchange figures as Segura's agent said they were going to wait until the end of the season to exchange figures. This actually cost Segura some money as his offense declined during the second half of the season. I wouldn't be surprised if Segura and the Brewers work out an extension before spring training and the deal will be close to what Longoria received which was 6-years 17.5M it will be more than that but not all that much higher something like 6-years $20m with a team option for a 7th year.

[danzig6767]

I'm not saying this idea that inter-divisional trades are less likely to occur but I've never understood what the big deal is. It's like saying "we'd rather be bad as long as this other division team is bad too". The idea of a trade is to improve your team. If the team you need to make a trade with in order to improve your team just happens to be in the same division as you, so be it. Beside as it stands now the Brewers and Cardinals are so far apart that I don't see why the Cardinals would even view the Brewers as a threat. And I don't see why the Brewers would worry about making the Cardinals better when their sole focus should be on making themselves better.

I hope people aren't really suggesting there's a possibility for a Miller-Segura swap.

 

I don't think anyone realistically expects Melvin would make that move because Melvin is way too conservative to do that. He'll never take such a big chance on a young player, no matter how talented that player is. I know people will point to the C.C. and Greinke trades to argue Melvin is not conservative but it is a hell of a lot less risky to trade for established MLB pitching than to take chances on younger, cost controlled players (i.e. the type of players he needs to start taking chances on) Plus, when does Melvin EVER trade someone who isn't in the final year of his contract?

 

I agree with you that trading within the division with young talents should be secondary to making your team better, even if it may also end up making a division rival better.

 

That said, you have no idea if Melvin and Attanasio would say no for sure if this hypothetical trade was offered or if Cardinals management would be interested either.

 

Look around baseball over say the last decade, trades like the one being discussed rarely happen with any teams, not just the Brewers. Trading a really highly thought of young player with just a year of service time for a similar guy at a different position straight up involves significant risk for both sides, which is likely why trades like that are so uncommon. In fact, trades like that are pretty rare in any professional sport. That's why even if the Cardinals are potentially exploring the possibility of trading a guy like say Miller for a high end young shortstop, i put the odds against a deal in that realm actually happening.

 

The one team though i could see a possible good fit would be Texas. They have Andrus locked up long term, so maybe they'd consider a deal involving Profar for a top young and cheap starter.

[danzig6767]

 

Prepare for a playoff matchup scenario? What is that? Pitching in the playoffs is not about playoff matchup scenario or whatever made up silly thing the talking heads come up with. Look at the 2007 playoffs Jeff Suppan was pitching like an ace. There are more examples of this where #5 type pitchers play above their heads because they get on a streak. How did the Rays do this year with their pitching staff? How about the Tigers? Both the Tigers and the Rays had better pitching staffs than the Red Sox yet they went on to win the World Series. While it is nice to have a great pitching staff it is not something that is essential to winning in the playoffs. The playoffs is baseball is still very much luck based as in which team is hot and which team is not. The Dodgers pitching staff was about equal to the Braves the biggest difference there was that Atlanta's offense was bad while the Dodgers was on a hot streak. When the Dodgers played the Cardinals there bats were cold and when the Cardinals played the Red Sox their offense was really cold along with some pitchers starting to get tired at the end of the year. There is more to the playoffs than pitching matchups as I wouldn't be surprised if the current Brewers pitching rotation would go out and have 4 great games and sweep the Cardinals the way the Cardinals offense was playing in the world series.

 

Obviously starting pitching is hugely important to simply getting into the playoffs and then can have a big impact in those playoffs, but like you said, it doesn't always decide who wins rings. Hell, besides what you wrote, the Cardinals won it all a few years ago with a starting rotation which struggled to go just 5 innings in many of their playoff games. They won that title mostly on the backs of their offense and stellar bullpen performance. Carpenter did come up huge a few times though that year.

 

MLB playoffs of late are often so unpredictable and everything is important to winning from starting pitching, bullpens, hitting, defense, and some luck sprinkled in. A player or two coming up huge that isn't among the team's best players. You get in these only 5 or 7 game series, a poorly performing bullpen can sabotage a team as much as starting pitching, just ask Rangers fans. On the flip side, a really good bullpen can be huge in advancing, the Boston pen this year being a prime example.

 

This is why simply just getting into the playoffs is so important. We see teams advance all of the time who just barely made it into the playoffs over teams who were better in the regular season, unlike say the NBA playoffs where it's more surprising when upsets happen. In fact, in MLB playoffs, i don't know if any team ever winning or losing a series should be considered a really big upset anymore.

[fondybrewfan]

I think it is about time that we actually get a legit rumor to talk about. Speculating on a Segura, Fielder, etc is getting kind of old since it is obviously not happening. We need something worthwhile to talk about. Winter Meetings aren't for a couple weeks yet too.

[paul253]

I think it is about time that we actually get a legit rumor to talk about.....

 

Such as????

 

This thread was never meant to speculate on whether or not DM is going to trade Segura for Shelby Miller. It was simply one asking whether or you would make the move if it were presented. Half the posts on this board are about moves everyone knows Doug Melvin isn't going to make. We all know he isn't going to trade Segura. We all know he isn't going to trade Gomez. We all know that he isn't going to trade Ramirez. If this were simply about moves he is likely to make the trade rumors portion of this message board would be kind of dead right now.

 

Beside, one can always hope that maybe one day someone with some leverage in the organization takes a looks at this message board and says "hey, maybe we SHOULD consider moving Segura or Gomez if it can get us a young ace in return because clearly our strategy of all offense no pitching isn't cutting it". It could happen

[danzig6767]

I think it is about time that we actually get a legit rumor to talk about.....

 

Such as????

 

This thread was never meant to speculate on whether or not DM is going to trade Segura for Shelby Miller. It was simply one asking whether or you would make the move if it were presented. Half the posts on this board are about moves everyone knows Doug Melvin isn't going to make. We all know he isn't going to trade Segura. We all know he isn't going to trade Gomez. We all know that he isn't going to trade Ramirez. If this were simply about moves he is likely to make the trade rumors portion of this message board would be kind of dead right now.

 

Beside, one can always hope that maybe one day someone with some leverage in the organization takes a looks at this message board and says "hey, maybe we SHOULD consider moving Segura or Gomez if it can get us a young ace in return because clearly our strategy of all offense no pitching isn't cutting it". It could happen

 

No question that the odds of Segura getting traded are microscopic, but for good reason. If he was on pretty much any other MLB teams lacking shortstop quality in their system, Segura wouldn't be traded by those teams either. Trades like that are extremely uncommon except in trades for veteran pitchers like say Greinke or Shields.

 

Gomez likely won't be traded either, but i don't buy that he's nearly untouchable as Segura is. Of course Melvin should expect a really nice return of pitching talent to trade Carlos given the extremely team friendly deal Doug got him to sign, but i don't think a call about Gomez would receive an immediate hang up.

 

Any hypothetical trade is all about the exact details. At least this thread had that with clear details in hypothetically asking would you trade Segura for Miller if offered? A very valid argument could be made both ways. With Gomez though, to vaguely just say he should be traded for pitching doesn't really say much of anything. What matters is for what pitcher/pitchers and then obviously it matters just as much whether the other team would actually say yes. It's way easy to make up pretend trades online than real GM's pulling of important trades given they happen so few times in real life compared to online.

 

Plus, i don't buy at all that there is a "strategy of all offense no pitching" as you put it. When an amateur scouting department for non-revenue rich teams consistently whiffs when drafting pitchers, then pitching will nearly always become a problem compared to teams who instead draft pitching much better. If our scouting department had drafted high quality pitchers like Jaime Garcia, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal, etc along with arms in their system instead of so many busts, injury flameouts, and/or lower ceiling pitchers, the Brewers wouldn't be in this pitching predicament. Until Seid starts producing better results, the organization will very likely remain in a pitching bind.

[paul253]

but i don't buy that he's nearly untouchable as Segura is

 

I do. Melvin has been a the GM for Milwaukee for a long time and over that time frame he's established a bit of an M.O. Part of that M.O. is that he absolutely will not trade an established player unless that player is in the final year of his contract. Sexson, Greinke, KRod, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Lee all traded in the final year of their contract. Guys like Gallardo, Weeks, Hart, Ramirez and Axford all refused to be traded even though there was likely significant interest in all of them. Why? I think a big part of it is that Melvin thinks it is stupid to trade players who can theoretically help the team for more than a year, although a lot of players end up hurting more than helping towards the end of their deals. It's the same reason we all know Melvin won't trade, say, Jim Henderson this offseason even though closers are pretty easily replaced.

 

I think that if someone called and asked about Gomez Melvin would listen. But I also think he'd demand WAY too much in return. Yes, he should ask for a significant return but there's a difference between significant and ridiculous. In my opinion Melvin is too closed minded to run a franchise like Milwaukee and that is why I'd bet a year's salary that Carlos Gomez will not be moved this offseason.

[endaround]

but i don't buy that he's nearly untouchable as Segura is

 

I do. Melvin has been a the GM for Milwaukee for a long time and over that time frame he's established a bit of an M.O. Part of that M.O. is that he absolutely will not trade an established player unless that player is in the final year of his contract. Sexson, Greinke, KRod, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Lee all traded in the final year of their contract. Guys like Gallardo, Weeks, Hart, Ramirez and Axford all refused to be traded even though there was likely significant interest in all of them. Why? I think a big part of it is that Melvin thinks it is stupid to trade players who can theoretically help the team for more than a year, although a lot of players end up hurting more than helping towards the end of their deals. It's the same reason we all know Melvin won't trade, say, Jim Henderson this offseason even though closers are pretty easily replaced.

 

I think that if someone called and asked about Gomez Melvin would listen. But I also think he'd demand WAY too much in return. Yes, he should ask for a significant return but there's a difference between significant and ridiculous. In my opinion Melvin is too closed minded to run a franchise like Milwaukee and that is why I'd bet a year's salary that Carlos Gomez will not be moved this offseason.

 

Overbay, Escobar, and Hardy were not in the last year of their contracts when they were traded.

[danzig6767]

but i don't buy that he's nearly untouchable as Segura is

 

I do. Melvin has been a the GM for Milwaukee for a long time and over that time frame he's established a bit of an M.O. Part of that M.O. is that he absolutely will not trade an established player unless that player is in the final year of his contract. Sexson, Greinke, KRod, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Lee all traded in the final year of their contract. Guys like Gallardo, Weeks, Hart, Ramirez and Axford all refused to be traded even though there was likely significant interest in all of them. Why? I think a big part of it is that Melvin thinks it is stupid to trade players who can theoretically help the team for more than a year, although a lot of players end up hurting more than helping towards the end of their deals. It's the same reason we all know Melvin won't trade, say, Jim Henderson this offseason even though closers are pretty easily replaced.

 

I think that if someone called and asked about Gomez Melvin would listen. But I also think he'd demand WAY too much in return. Yes, he should ask for a significant return but there's a difference between significant and ridiculous. In my opinion Melvin is too closed minded to run a franchise like Milwaukee and that is why I'd bet a year's salary that Carlos Gomez will not be moved this offseason.

 

That's not exactly a risky prediction given that fairly major trades for players like Gomez aren't really all that commonplace for teams each year. For example, as this offseason plays out and the season is about to begin, how many teams will end up trading one of their better players who isn't either really old or owed huge money like in the Fielder deal? Two or three at most? Maybe less?

 

You act like teams regularly trade productive guys like Gomez, Gallardo, or Hart when they aren't old and/or don't have an ugly contract. As if Melvin is the only GM sitting around not shopping his non-old productive players for prospects because he wants to win in the present. You also seem to forget that Melvin has a clearly involved owner who has shown and stated multiple times that he wants to win in the present as much or more than than Doug does. You are assuming big time that Attanasio would just sign off on trading away all of the productive players you wanted traded who didn't have ugly contracts, for mostly prospects.

 

What exactly about Attanasio's behavior makes you believe this? Keep in mind this is an owner who took the lead in signing all three of Suppan, Ramirez, and Lohse. He also took the lead in signing Lohse even after Melvin in multiple interviews said he didn't want to lose a draft pick. Attanasio gave Melvin an extension. So what's there to think he'd say been fine with Melvin trading Ramirez for prospects after his big first season with the team, a player Attanasio personally got signed to a contract? Trade Greinke before the 2012 season started? Why would they have traded Greinke then anyways after winning 96 games? Attanasio would have been cool with trading Axford for prospects even though he was dirt cheap, was coming off a fabulous 46 save season, and the team was only two games from reach the World Series? Take out Attanasio, how many teams in the exact same situation would have traded Axford for prospects?

 

FWIW, i also have issues with Melvin sometimes and wouldn't be upset if he was replaced. That said, i just think you are being delusional about what Attanasio would allow in all of these pretend trades you wish Melvin would have made and not realistic in how easy you seem to think it is for GM's to pull off the kind of trades like you wish would happen. There is a reason that vastly vastly fewer trades happen in real baseball than on message boards, blog sites, and rumor mills. Even when actual GM's want to make trades, they don't end up happening often for a myriad of reasons. Hell, just look at last year's trade deadline. Tons of rumors and almost no trades.

[paul253]

Overbay, Escobar, and Hardy were not in the last year of their contracts when they were traded.

 

You're right I made a mistake on Overbay. But both he and Hardy were traded because they were blocking what were believed to be better players (Fielder and Escobar....remember Hardy had been demoted that season so he wasn't really even that great of a player at the time) and I presume that Escobar was a necessary piece to get Greinke. Escobar may be the only significant player who was traded that wasn't in the final year of his deal and who wasn't blocking someone.

 

That's not exactly a risky prediction given that fairly major trades for players like Gomez aren't really all that commonplace for teams each year.

 

And it's even less of a risky prediction given his M.O.

 

Detroit and Texas just made a blockbuster deal. I understand that those deals are rare but they do happen (I think of the R.A. Dickey deal last season as well). They usually happen when both teams realize that the only way they are going shore up a weak area is to make that sort of trade. One team I've always thought would be a good match for Gomez would be Seattle. They have a lot of young pitching prospects but are struggling big time on offense. We generally have a pretty strong offense but our pitching ranks are nearly bare. Flipping Gomez for Walker or Hultzen + makes all the sense in the world for both teams.

 

You act like teams regularly trade productive guys like Gomez, Gallardo, or Hart when they aren't old and/or don't have an ugly contract.

 

How am I acting like that? All I am doing is stating the facts. Melvin rarely trades significant contributors that are not in the final years of their contracts. Just like he rarely allows young positional prospects to play every day unless they are either top notch prospects or there is no alternative. It's just the way he is.

 

As if Melvin is the only GM sitting around not shopping his non-old productive players for prospects because he wants to win in the present.

 

He's not winning in the present. That's the problem. He's not winning because he has no pitching. History has shown when he has pitching he wins (I think in his time with Milwaukee there was only one season where the team ERA was in the top half of the league and they did not make the playoffs). But instead of using the pieces that he has to go get that pitching he sits on his hands and marvels about how wonderful of a player he's got. Well clearly whatever he's doing in the draft isn't working. Outside of Peralta there don't seem to be a whole lot of successful international free agents in the organization. Pretty much all of the pitching prospects he's traded for have been duds. So how exactly is this team going to win in the present if he doesn't start taking some chances and goes and gets these #1 potential guys? The only time he wins is when he has those guys and right now he not only does he not have them in Milwaukee but he doesn't have them anywhere.

 

You also seem to forget that Melvin has a clearly involved owner who has shown and stated multiple times that he wants to win in the present as much or more than than Doug does.

 

I did not forget about Mark Attanasio. And I know he has veto power over everything. But Doug is the baseball guy, not Mark. It's Doug's job to win and if that means convincing the owner that they need pitching at any cost then that's what he should be doing. Maybe Mark says no anyway. Who knows. All I know is that right now this is a mediocre team with a terrible farm system and "winning now" seems out of the question.

You are assuming big time that Attanasio would just sign off on trading away all of the productive players you wanted traded who didn't have ugly contracts, for mostly prospects.

 

"All" of the players I want traded is essentially one or two guys, though I think only one move is needed. And the players I've suggesting going after, while still I guess technically prospects, are all major league ready. I'm not suggesting they move Gomez for a couple of A ballers I think trading either Gomez or Segura (preferably Gomez because he's easier to replace) for a pitcher with #1 potential makes this team better now.

 

But just for the sake of argument which team is better? A team with a rotation of Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, Estrada and Thornburg with Gomez and Segura playing everyday or a team with a rotation of Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, Shelby Miller and Taijaun Walker with Aoki/Schafer and a FA SS playing every day? Maybe now it's a push but I think soon......really soon......the second would be a much, much better team, especially after they find a regular SS.

[danzig6767]

Detroit and Texas just made a blockbuster deal. I understand that those deals are rare but they do happen (I think of the R.A. Dickey deal last season as well).

 

Those trades were all about money. Detroit wanted to unload Fielders contract and the Mets didn't want to roll the dice on paying Dickey a lot money given his age and being a knuckle ball pitcher. The one winning team i can think of off the top of my head who shows fairly often that they will trade very productive guys at any time is Tampa. That said, Friedman just might be the best GM in the league and he's had the luxury to trade productive pitchers because his amateur scouting department has drafted pitching great, while the Brewers have been miserable for ages at drafting pitching.

 

One team I've always thought would be a good match for Gomez would be Seattle. They have a lot of young pitching prospects but are struggling big time on offense. We generally have a pretty strong offense but our pitching ranks are nearly bare. Flipping Gomez for Walker or Hultzen + makes all the sense in the world for both teams.

 

Maybe Seattle would make a trade like that and maybe not. If i was the Brewers GM, nobody on the roster would be untouchable, that obviously includes Gomez. If he doesn't get traded though which is most likely, i'm not going to bash Melvin unless someone comes up with concrete details of players Doug was really offered and then turned down. I simply can't join in the camp of some on message boards who get mad if certain players aren't traded even if those people have no clear details of who was offered for that player or if reported rumors ending up proving to be factually accurate.

 

How am I acting like that? All I am doing is stating the facts. Melvin rarely trades significant contributors that are not in the final years of their contracts

 

Why are you so focused on the last year of a contract aspect?

 

I did not forget about Mark Attanasio. And I know he has veto power over everything. But Doug is the baseball guy, not Mark. It's Doug's job to win and if that means convincing the owner that they need pitching at any cost then that's what he should be doing.

 

Tell that to Bucks GM's over roughly the last 20 years with Kohl meddling and the Packers GM's before Wolf was given total authority. When an owner/boss is in place who both wants to win now and have say in moves made, it's much easier on a forum to just say, well convince him that X or Y needs to be done if that owner is dead set on what he believes helps a team win right now.

 

He's not winning in the present. That's the problem. He's not winning because he has no pitching. History has shown when he has pitching he wins (I think in his time with Milwaukee there was only one season where the team ERA was in the top half of the league and they did not make the playoffs). But instead of using the pieces that he has to go get that pitching he sits on his hands and marvels about how wonderful of a player he's got.

 

I know you don't like Melvin, but do you honestly think he doesn't understand the importance of pitching? This is a GM who traded for elite arms like Sabathia and Greinke. I'm assuming though that you mainly mean trading for high quality young pitching, yet what is arguably the most valuable commodity in the game? That would be cheap high quality young pitching, especially cheap high quality young starters. It sure seems to me that you think it's easier to trade for high quality young arms than it really is given those super valuable commodities aren't exactly being traded a lot.

 

Well clearly whatever he's doing in the draft isn't working.

 

This is where we clearly get to the main crux of the problem for the Brewers pitching woes to me. For decades now, the organization has been dreadful when it comes to drafting pitching. It's been that way before Melvin arrived and has remained that way during his tenure as GM.

 

When he arrived as GM, Jack Zduriencik was running the drafts and after he left for Seattle, Doug hired Seid to run the drafts. Given the poor results so far, to me, the hiring of Seid may end up being the biggest overall mistake Melvin has made. Let's face it, MLB general managers simply don't have anywhere near enough time to go traveling around the country scouting vast quantities of high school and college prospects. That is up to the amateur scouting director and the many scouts under the scouting director.

 

Well, since both Zduriencik and Seid have been so terrible at drafting pitching, Melvin in pretty much each season has had to put together pitching staffs with arms acquired mostly via trades, free agency, minor league free agents, pitchers off the scrap heap, etc because the amateur scouting department has been so abysmal at their jobs with pitching.

 

Look at say the Cardinals, most of their big stable of young to youngish great arms in the rotation, pen, and minor league system came via the draft. Same with greatly run Tampa Bay. I'm quite sure Doug would much rather just called up a Garcia, Miller, Wacha, Rosenthal, etc etc from the minors instead of having to trade for a Greinke because the amateur scouting department keeps drafting pitching busts, injured guys, or more mediocre talents. It's not like the Cardinals got all those great young arms by trading productive guys on the MLB roster. They drafted them. Tampa drafted them.

 

Like i said, Doug did hire Seid, so he bears a decent amount of responsibility for the results of Seid's drafting. That said, Doug isn't the guy picking the players after traveling the country to watch hundreds and hundreds of prospects. If the drafting of pitching wasn't so poor, we wouldn't be in this spot as often where fans then expect Melvin to pretty easily go out and extract super valuable high quality young pitchers from teams who actually are able to draft pitching and are loathe to give it up. In fact, if someone did the research, i wouldn't doubt that the Brewers over the last 10-15-20 years were either the worst or at least top 5 worst team in baseball at drafting pitching. That's extremely hard for any non-rich organization to overcome.

[Mass Haas]

One team I've always thought would be a good match for Gomez would be Seattle. They have a lot of young pitching prospects but are struggling big time on offense. We generally have a pretty strong offense but our pitching ranks are nearly bare. Flipping Gomez for Walker or Hultzen + makes all the sense in the world for both teams.

 

"Maybe Seattle would make a trade like that and maybe not. If i was the Brewers GM, nobody on the roster would be untouchable, that obviously includes Gomez. If he doesn't get traded though which is most likely, i'm not going to bash Melvin unless someone comes up with concrete details of players Doug was really offered and then turned down. I simply can't join in the camp of some on message boards who get mad if certain players aren't traded even if those people have no clear details of who was offered for that player or if reported rumors ending up proving to be factually accurate."

 

***

 

Obviously this thread is morphing from the originally proposed deal, but regarding Gomez for young controllable pitching, an almost exact match would be Minnesota dealing Denard Span and his three years of control to the Nationals for 6'9" RHP Alex Meyer.

 

Baseball America: Nationals Get Their Man In Span

 

Yes, perhaps Gomez has a bit more value now, but it's close.

 

Now as it turns out, Meyer is looking like a true stud --

 

Alex Meyer Lends AFL A Powerful Arm

 

So when you're trading for a single young pitcher, you had better be sure. So far, so good for Meyer, can't wait to see if/how he progresses once on the big stage.