Would you trade Segura for Shelby Miller?

[TheCrew07]

impact starting pitching > every other position on the field. SP > position players > RP.

 

Trade up in value every chance you get, I'd take the deal and hope that one of the young SS in the system develops. This is organization is going no where with a bunch of 3-5 type pitching prospects. We can build a good enough rotation to win games in the regular season but in the post season when facing the best pitching and best line-ups in baseball we'd better be able to match-up pitcher for pitcher. Trade relievers for impact starting pitching, trade position players for impact starting pitching... fix the rotation first, then worry about the rest. Young impact starting pitching is the most valuable commodity in baseball, once you have it then it becomes easy to fill holes elsewhere or replace it.

 

Simply put, it's nearly impossible to lose a series if you out pitch the other team, and I'm not talking ERA, I'm talking about giving up less runs than the opposition. There may be a way for extreme run distribution to work out where the team who pitched worse can actually win a series, but 4-5 years ago I researched something like 35 years worth of post season series and didn't see a single instance of it. Again it may be mathematically possible, but when building a team I'm looking to hit targets in the middle, not hope for outcomes on either extreme.

 

2006-2013 should have proven to people that it doesn't matter how good your offense is if your pitching is bad. How many back to back winning seasons did we have with all that talent assembled? 2.. finishing 2nd in the division in '07 (83) and '08 (90) and then finishing 1st in '11 (96) and dropping to a 3rd place finish in '12 (83).

 

The organization will not sustain itself without young pitching because the Brewers aren't able to afford impact pitching in FA, haven't been able to draft and develop it, and ran the well dry trading for it earlier. There is no such thing as "good enough" pitching... people want to argue endlessly about position players and who bats where in the line-up, to me none of that matters until we have a pitching similar to TB. A young staff that is affordable and we can cycle back on itslef to keep bringing back more impact pitching talent, because the Brewers simply haven't proven at any point that they can permanently get on top of the pitching situation and sustain success in the rotation.

 

When 4 out of 5 pitchers in rotation have replaceable talent, you have a problem. It doesn't matter if the guy somehow out pitches his talent and sports a nice ERA during the season, how does he fair against the better teams in the game? Yes having a bunch of Marcum's who can pitch to a 3.5 ERA will win you regular season games, but can you win a WS without at least 1 legitimately talented pitcher? I'd argue that you really need 3, that's the core issue in my mind... are we just trying to win games or accomplish something special? There is a wide gulf in strategy between those 2 ideas.

 

Teams that truly remain competitive for long stretches have done it with pitching, in the modern era the Braves did it through the 90s and now the Rays have been doing it since 2008. The major difference is that the Rays continue to cycle fresh talent into the rotation while the Braves rode out aging players through their entire career and it eventually came crashing down.

 

Pitching. Pitching. Pitching. That is all.

[paul253]

I think if St. Louis called today and offered the deal I would have to accept. I like Segura a lot and am glad Milwaukee finally found a SS. But we still haven't found the answer to our pitching woes. And unfortunately the answer doesn't seem to be in our system right now either. As Crew stated this organization isn't going to progress with a bunch of 3's 4's and 5's which is what he have now. I can envision a scenario in which Peralta tops out as a #2 but that's about it.

 

Unfortunately I cannot see any way that Melvin trades Segura, even if the return is a 23 year old with ace like potential who is under control for 5 more seasons. Just like I can't see any way that he'd trade Carlos Gomez for pitching either. We need pitching very very badly but it doesn't seem like Melvin is willing to do what it will take to acquire that pitching.

[StearnsFTW]

Nope.

 

I don't have that much faith in Miller going forward.

[HiAndTight]

Yes. In a second. And it's not close for me.

 

The likelihood that Segura sticks at SS is STILL very low for me. He'll play somewhere, but he's a well below average shortstop (even with the occasional flashy play).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=nl&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d

 

Another question: Would you trade Segura straight up for Andrelton Simmons?

I strongly disagree that Segura is even an average SS, defensively. I love statistical analysis as much as (nearly) anyone, but Segura passes the eye test waaay too well on defense for me to be swayed. He may not stick at SS as he hits his late 20s & early 30s, but he's going to be good there for at least 4 or 5 more seasons.

 

 

I completely agree. He answered any questions about his defensive ability/potential this past year. I don't know how you could conclude that he's not a good defender at SS having watched him, and you're trying WAY too hard in my opinion if you're referencing one year of fangraphs. He's only played Short for a few years after moving from 2nd, and the biggest thing people questioned was his arm strength. Now it's not Simmons-strong, but it's plenty strong to play short and make the tough throws.

 

 

So I wouldn't trade him for Shelby Miller just because I value having a 23 year old SS at this point given where the Brewers organization is as opposed to a young pitcher for no other reason than the injury risk.

 

With regard to Simmons, he's a fun guy to watch....that's a move I think I'd probably make. He's been able to draw some walks in the minors, and he's got the frame to add more power as he fills out. He COULD be a .260/.310/.450 type guy who plays the best defense in the league.

[DHonks]

nope, I would only consider trading him for Price, and even then I'm not sure I would do it.

[LouisEly]

Miami had really good starting pitching, including a true #1 (Fernandez) and a well-above-average #2-4 (Turner, Eovaldi, Nolasco, Alvarez; and Kohler/Slowey were well above-average for a #5). And they won the second fewest games in baseball. You can't win with poor pitching or poor hitting.

[paul253]

And they won the second fewest games in baseball. You can't win with poor pitching or poor hitting.

 

The Brewers would still have Braun, Ramirez, Gomez, and Lucroy. Weeks or Gennett. Aoki or Davis. I think even without Segura the offense would be fine. Remember, in the second half, over the course of 53 games, Segura only hit .241 with a .268 OBP and a .315 slugging. I don't think that's indicative of the kind of hitter he is but it shows the Brewers can survive without him putting up all star numbers. In fact, in the second half, without Braun, with Ramirez missing significant time and with both Segura and Gomez cooling off drastically, the Brewers still put up a 36-32 record. The difference? Pitching (4.13 team ERA vs 3.42 ERA) If the choice is either good pitching or good hitting I'll take good pitching. But if you move Segura for Miller I don't think it'll be one or the other. I think it'll be better pitching and still good enough hitting.

[Warning Track Power]

While I am all for dealing hitting for pitching, I just don't know if a trade like this makes the Brewers better, worse or about the same. While the lineup would still include Braun, Lucroy and Gomez, there are no guarantees that Gennett and Davis are what they showed in 2013. I don't know. A Segura-Miller deal feels like a push to me given the questions we would have at 1B, 2B, SS and RF.

 

I do know that this trade would help the Cardinals more than it would help the Brewers given their depth at SP and our lack of depth at SS. We fill one hole by opening another and they close one of their holes but aren't opening another.

[TooLiveBrew]

While I am all for dealing hitting for pitching, I just don't know if a trade like this makes the Brewers better, worse or about the same. While the lineup would still include Braun, Lucroy and Gomez, there are no guarantees that Gennett and Davis are what they showed in 2013. I don't know. A Segura-Miller deal feels like a push to me given the questions we would have at 1B, 2B, SS and RF.

 

I do know that this trade would help the Cardinals more than it would help the Brewers given their depth at SP and our lack of depth at SS. We fill one hole by opening another and they close one of their holes but aren't opening another.

You're not simply analyzing the prospective deal if that's how you're framing the question. You're tying in objectively unrelated issues -- not to say that I don't understand why you or other folks might approach looking at this not completely in a vaccuum. But imo you can't say a deal does or doesn't make the club better if you use elements that aren't part of the deal to evaluate the deal. It would be similar to saying that you wouldn't want to trade four quarters to receive five quarters because you also need more dimes & nickels.

 

The reason I would pull the trigger on this deal is that (as stated) I feel SP > Position Player. The rest of the roster construction has nothing to do with what I believe is objective analysis of a potential deal like this.

[Warning Track Power]

While I am all for dealing hitting for pitching, I just don't know if a trade like this makes the Brewers better, worse or about the same. While the lineup would still include Braun, Lucroy and Gomez, there are no guarantees that Gennett and Davis are what they showed in 2013. I don't know. A Segura-Miller deal feels like a push to me given the questions we would have at 1B, 2B, SS and RF.

 

I do know that this trade would help the Cardinals more than it would help the Brewers given their depth at SP and our lack of depth at SS. We fill one hole by opening another and they close one of their holes but aren't opening another.

You're not simply analyzing the prospective deal if that's how you're framing the question. You're tying in objectively unrelated issues -- not to say that I don't understand why you or other folks might approach looking at this not completely in a vaccuum. But imo you can't say a deal does or doesn't make the club better if you use elements that aren't part of the deal to evaluate the deal. It would be similar to saying that you wouldn't want to trade four quarters to receive five quarters because you also need more dimes & nickels.

 

The reason I would pull the trigger on this deal is that (as stated) I feel SP > Position Player. The rest of the roster construction has nothing to do with what I believe is objective analysis of a potential deal like this.

I digress. Looking at a Segura-Miller deal in terms of value, I will make this deal 100% of the time if I am the Brewers as I agree that SP > Position Player. However, when analyzing the deal in terms of outcomes, I see the following:

 

1. A major league SS is not currently in the organization to replace Segura, creating the need for a corresponding move. Not impossible but required given a Segura-Miller trade.

2. StL's lineup currently is better than the Brewers and a Segura-Miller deal widens the gap.

3. StL trades a potential ace in Miller but really is not hurt in the process given the depth of quality young SP they already possess in Wacha, Kelly, Martinez, etc...

4. StL's pitching staff remains better than Milwaukee's.

 

I will not argue with you that Segura-Miller isn't a win for the Brewers because I believe it is. If the Brewers were offered this, I would hope they would not turn it down. It strengthens the Brewers long-term. However, this one move will also strengthen a division rival and at a greater rate than what the Brewers would be strengthened in the short and long-term. The Brewers will still be behind the Cardinals and will still require additional significant moves to catch the Cardinals.

[paul253]

there are no guarantees that Gennett and Davis are what they showed in 2013.

 

There is also no guarantee that Segura hits like the first half Segura and not the second half Segura. Something could always go wrong. You can't always base your off season moves on worst case scenarios.

 

I also disagree with the idea that the Brewers have question marks at 2nd base and RF. Even if Gennett hits .270-.280 with a .320 OBP that's still about a push from what we got out of 2nd base last season. And that's assuming Gennett is even the second basemen. Rickie Weeks come back strong. Also, as far as I'm concerned RF belongs to Aoki until someone says otherwise. If he is in RF I don't consider it a question mark

2. StL's lineup currently is better than the Brewers and a Segura-Miller deal widens the gap.

3. StL trades a potential ace in Miller but really is not hurt in the process given the depth of quality young SP they already possess in Wacha, Kelly, Martinez, etc...

4. StL's pitching staff remains better than Milwaukee's.

 

We also can't base all of our moves with the sole intention of passing STL this year. STL is light years ahead of Milwaukee as an organization. We have to focus on making the Brewers better and acquiring a pitcher with the upside of Miller, something the organization lacks at any level, would be a good first step even if it means letting go of Segura. The Brewers need a serious upgrade in talent and that means taking chances.

[StearnsFTW]

nope, I would only consider trading him for Price, and even then I'm not sure I would do it.

 

I'd easily rather have Miller than Price.

 

And I wouldn't trade Segura for either.

[Eye Black]

More fuel to the fire per Jim Bowden on Twitter referring to a MLB network radio conversation with the Cardinals GM John Mozeliak...

 

Mozeliak made it clear to us this morning that he'd like to trade a young "starting pitcher": for a "young controllable shortstop"

The majority of the speculation is currently surrounding potential trades with the Rockies and Rangers.

[KCBrewerfan34]

What if the Cards threw in Adams or Craig. If they will trade Miller and Adams and 2 prospects for an injury prone Tulo, maybe we should check it out.

[fondybrewfan]

What the Cards would need to give up for Tulo would be mind boggling. Miller & Adams would just be the top of the iceberg. They would probably have to part with Martinez as well. Given the contract Tulo has I just don't know that he would be worth it. Andrus or Profar from Texas seem to make more sense but they still wouldn't be cheap even with Profar having a subpar 2013. There just aren't that many young controllable SS's out there

 

Now if we could give them Segura and change for Miller and Adams I am pretty sure I would do that. You would solve two pretty big problems. Of course we would be opening up another giant hole at SS too.

 

DM should probably talk to STL but doing any kind of deal with a division rival with such big pieces seems incredibly unlikely.

[sheetskout]

DM should probably talk to STL but doing any kind of deal with a division rival with such big pieces seems incredibly unlikely.

 

I think people are getting away from reality here. It's fun to speculate, but an inter-division trade involving two young-stud players is more rare than a no-hitter. That's all this thread was, a hypothetical. I hope people aren't really suggesting there's a possibility for a Miller-Segura swap.

[KCBrewerfan34]

If the price is right you consider everything to improve your team, if the Cards will give the world for Tulo, the Brewers are badly in need of a talent infusion and they should inquire with the Cards, if Segura can bring multiple pieces from anyone you have to consider it, regardless if its within the division or not.

[paul253]

I'm not saying this idea that inter-divisional trades are less likely to occur but I've never understood what the big deal is. It's like saying "we'd rather be bad as long as this other division team is bad too". The idea of a trade is to improve your team. If the team you need to make a trade with in order to improve your team just happens to be in the same division as you, so be it. Beside as it stands now the Brewers and Cardinals are so far apart that I don't see why the Cardinals would even view the Brewers as a threat. And I don't see why the Brewers would worry about making the Cardinals better when their sole focus should be on making themselves better.

I hope people aren't really suggesting there's a possibility for a Miller-Segura swap.

 

I don't think anyone realistically expects Melvin would make that move because Melvin is way too conservative to do that. He'll never take such a big chance on a young player, no matter how talented that player is. I know people will point to the C.C. and Greinke trades to argue Melvin is not conservative but it is a hell of a lot less risky to trade for established MLB pitching than to take chances on younger, cost controlled players (i.e. the type of players he needs to start taking chances on) Plus, when does Melvin EVER trade someone who isn't in the final year of his contract?

[sheetskout]

Not saying this author's writing is gospel, but here's some explanation on why GM's generally get away from intra-division trading:

 

http://crashburnalley.com/2009/07/16/why-intra-division-trading-is-a-bad-idea/

[logan82]

The huge hole in his argument I see is he keeps referring back to 51% of 1st/2nd round picks make the majors. We are talking about prospects not picks. Prospects are a not as much of an unknown as picks. Getting a couple of highly ranked prospects is not the same as getting a couple first round picks especially if they are AA or higher. I think he is undervaluing the return on trading a player.

 

Just because an offer can be matched by another team does not mean it will be matched. Just look at trading Greinke away last year.

[Warning Track Power]

Now if we could give them Segura and change for Miller and Adams I am pretty sure I would do that.

Deal...and I would hang up the phone before they had a chance to change their mind.

[brewcrewdue80]

Now if we could give them Segura and change for Miller and Adams I am pretty sure I would do that.

Deal...and I would hang up the phone before they had a chance to change their mind.

 

Agreed.

 

Honestly Brewers would have to throw someone to Stl for Adams. I mean straight up Segura and Miller is an appropiate deal. Adding Adams filling 2 needs of the Brewers for Stl one is Overkill.

 

 

The other recent talks of Tulo interest by Stl. That would be great for Milwaukee long term. Stl gets an often injured SS with high Salary pay and lose likely 2 Stud SP or 1 stud SP and another Stud Prospect.

 

But then again reaching out for Tulo shows Stl's desperation to fill their SS. I think it's worthwhile to extend contact and see what they'd offer in return for Segura. Orlando Arcia is in the SS pipeline and the team signed those SS in International signings(not saying it's certain they are ML'ers) but you take an avg/slightly below avg SS for 2years and improve your Pitching today. But that is only if we are taking Miller in return a true ace ability pitcher.

[TURBO]

Arcia might be in the pipeline, but that pipeline is probably 4 years long... Saw the kid play a lot, and he is not close to being MLB ready.

[paul253]

Saw the kid play a lot, and he is not close to being MLB ready.

 

Yeah I think the Brewers would be wise to let both Arcia and Rivera repeat their 2013 levels. Arcia held his own but I'd like to let his ability catch up to his league a little bit.

But then again reaching out for Tulo shows Stl's desperation to fill their SS. I think it's worthwhile to extend contact and see what they'd offer in return for Segura.

I agree. If they are willing to go hard after an extremely expensive, injury prone 29 year old SS why not see what they'd offer for a cheap, talented soon to be 24 year old SS who was an allstar in his first full season?

[fondybrewfan]

Segura and either Tyrone Taylor or Victor Roache for Miller and Adams. I would also throw in someone like Pena or Delmonico to sweeten the deal if they needed more.

 

Miller and Adams would improve this team so much it would be ridiculous. Try to find a stopgap SS that plays good D.