Would you trade Segura for Shelby Miller?

[paul253]

I read an article the other day that St. Louis was looking for a shortstop and would trade from a position of strength (starting pitching) to get one. The two names mentioned in the article were Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller. I know people here would loathe trading Segura, especially after what we've thrown out a SS the past few years, but what if it brought back Shelby Miller?

 

Obviously pitching has been our main issue the last few years and we have no real ace type pitchers in the entire system. Miller is only 23 and under control until 2019. He put up very solid numbers in his full season in the big leagues.

 

So my question. Assuming it was offered, would you trade Segura for Miller (or are those two close enough in value where a throw in on either side would get it done)?

[TooLiveBrew]

I read an article the other day that St. Louis was looking for a shortstop and would trade from a position of strength (starting pitching) to get one. The two names mentioned in the article were Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller. I know people here would loathe trading Segura, especially after what we've thrown out a SS the past few years, but what if it brought back Shelby Miller?

 

Obviously pitching has been our main issue the last few years and we have no real ace type pitchers in the entire system. Miller is only 23 and under control until 2019. He put up very solid numbers in his full season in the big leagues.

 

So my question. Assuming it was offered, would you trade Segura for Miller (or are those two close enough in value where a throw in on either side would get it done)?

I'd say yes & hang up before the Cards could change their minds. I love Segura, but I honestly think he's going to wind up closer to an Erick Aybar/Elvis Andrus type hitter than the .800+ OPS hitter he teased being in the first few months of 2013.

[JohnBriggs12]

No I wouldn't trade an above average young SS who is under control for multiple years for one pitcher. Miller is one year removed from a 4.74 ERA at AAA. He's also a flyball pitcher who's LD% against was worse than league average. That tells me his FB tends to be straight. Once he loses the inevitable 2-3 mph off his fastball as his innings build up, he'll not be an elite pitcher. That's not even considering the injury risk, quite high for a pitcher who throws as hard as Miller does.

 

Even if Segura is on par with Andrus, and Aybar, that means it's a position you don't have to worry for for 5 more years.

[jerichoholicninja]

If Shelby Miller played for anyone other than the Cardinals, then probably yes. Knowing the Cardinals though, Miller would probably pull a Rick Allen and Segura would turn into Tulowitzky.

[Roderick]

Once he loses the inevitable 2-3 mph off his fastball as his innings build up, he'll not be an elite pitcher.

 

Isn't it more likely that at age 23 (he just turned 3+ weeks ago) he adds 1-3 MPH for the next few years?

[paul253]

This is where the Brewers terrible player development the past few years comes back to hurt. If they had a decent shortstop anywhere in the system above A ball this deal might be worth it. I'd have a really hard time turning down Shelby Miller and I'd have a real hard time believing St. Louis would turn down Segura with all the excess pitching they have. It would be a win-win deal for both teams IF Milwaukee had someone who could actually play shortstop.

[TURBO]

We finally get our SS and now people want to trade him?

 

Nope, especially not to the Cardinals.

 

Segura stays.

[TooLiveBrew]

Once he loses the inevitable 2-3 mph off his fastball as his innings build up, he'll not be an elite pitcher.

 

Isn't it more likely that at age 23 (he just turned 3+ weeks ago) he adds 1-3 MPH for the next few years?

Exactly. The "inevitable" physical decline will of course be 8-12 seasons from now, at which point he likely wouldn't even be Brewers property anymore.

 

We finally get our SS and now people want to trade him?

Well, if it's for an elite talent, similarly-aged/similarly salary-controlled, at SP... then yes. But that's just because I think of SP as more valuable than SS. I realize it's not this simple, but what I'm getting at is, 'We finally found $40 & now people want to trade it for $60?' -- well, yeah.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Segura for miller and kozma? I know kozma is no prized piece but he's better then our next option. That being said, I don't want segura traded.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'd pause on it but yes I'd take Miller for Segura. Miller has Ace Potential...I mean LEGIT ACE potential, and Gallardo's Ace Potential wasn't on par with Miller's. I'd throw Segura for Miller and try and trade Gallardo(ArZ and Owings?) or Lohse then for a SS. The way I look at it is that Miller living up to "His Full Potential" is going to be worth more from Replacement than Segura living up to "His full Potential" versus a Replacement SS.

 

I hope this is recalled that of StL. SPs and their Prospect Rankings, Miller was the highest! Not Wacha,Rosenthal, or Martinez. Miller.

Also, what does the SP outlook look vs SS? I'll tell you what Segura for all he shown this year, that type of season in 5years may not even crack top 10 SS status. There's a huge influx of Quality SSs about to hit the League. How does that fit to SP? In 5 years, what Miller does as a SP vs. what Segura does at SS will be valued more in trade or in that QO decision to sign Miller away for Draft pick compensation. I just think we are talking a A grade value guy for a B grade value guy. Just that, that A Grade Value guy was a B grade and the B Grade guy was almost an A Grade last season. But looking to the future you go with the A true potential. What everyone believes is an A Potential vs. what everyone believes, unlike shown that Segura is a B Grade guy.

 

I just also think this team needs an Ace for the Playoffs and Lohse/Gallardo aren't them. Yes Segura is great but can Segura take over Game 1,4,7 of a Playoff series and win for us? Miller could become that shutdown Pitcher and I can only truly believe we win a Series with a Go-To SP talent and looking ahead for the next 5 years, Miller would be him....no-one else on Milwaukee fits it.

[sheetskout]

Yes. In a second. And it's not close for me.

 

The likelihood that Segura sticks at SS is STILL very low for me. He'll play somewhere, but he's a well below average shortstop (even with the occasional flashy play).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=nl&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d

 

Another question: Would you trade Segura straight up for Andrelton Simmons?

[Kelbysdaddy]

I would trade segura for Simmons in a heartbeat. Simmons is already one of the top 5 defensive players in the league. His bat is not all that bad either.

[Eye Black]

If the Cardinals offered Shelby Miller for Jean Segura it would be difficult to turn down. Miller appears to have incredible potential with the talent to become a true #1 pitcher. Having Miller under control for the next 5 seasons would be very enticing. Predictably, Cardinals fans have their sights on trading Shelby Miller for a certain Texas shortstop.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yes. In a second. And it's not close for me.

 

The likelihood that Segura sticks at SS is STILL very low for me. He'll play somewhere, but he's a well below average shortstop (even with the occasional flashy play).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=nl&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d

 

Another question: Would you trade Segura straight up for Andrelton Simmons?

I strongly disagree that Segura is even an average SS, defensively. I love statistical analysis as much as (nearly) anyone, but Segura passes the eye test waaay too well on defense for me to be swayed. He may not stick at SS as he hits his late 20s & early 30s, but he's going to be good there for at least 4 or 5 more seasons.

[sheetskout]

I would trade segura for Simmons in a heartbeat.

 

I would too. Simmons is a virtual automatic 3.8WAR based on his defense alone. Anything offensive he puts on top of that is icing. About the safest bet at SS you can find. I've also read some accounts that say he could be BETTER than Ozzie Smith as he has a stronger arm. Time will tell.

 

I'd take that over a guy who's probably going to be moved to 2B and may lose a step or two; really knocking his value.

[brewcrewdue80]

I would trade segura for Simmons in a heartbeat.

 

I would too. Simmons is a virtual automatic 3.8WAR based on his defense alone. Anything offensive he puts on top of that is icing. About the safest bet at SS you can find. I've also read some accounts that say he could be BETTER than Ozzie Smith as he has a stronger arm. Time will tell.

 

I'd take that over a guy who's probably going to be moved to 2B and may lose a step or two; really knocking his value.

 

 

The Simmons vs Segura debate/trade idea is off subject and rather unlikely to happen when Atl/Milw have franchise SSs? Why would either team discuss swapping them?

 

Taking it back to Miller for Segura:

 

I look at it as who helps the most in your ultimate goal, winning the WS. Regular Season, Segura/Miller I believe equal out with maybe even Segura edging out ahead in value due to playing every day.

 

But, come Playoff time, when there are multiple off days giving #1s/#2s more Starts than the 4s and none of the 5s have to play Miller's value takes over big time. Wacha's performances vs. Kershaw helped StL make it to the WS but you can't tell me Lohse or Gallardo are capable of performing heads up to Kershaw and lead Milwaukee to Playoff victory over the Dodgers. Playoff contenders need the go to Pitching, they make the difference more often than not.

Miller would be that kind of guy your go to Pitcher to take you to your ultimate goal the WS.

 

Now the original post stated Lance Lynn or Miller and Lynn is nowhere near Miller talent and barring trading away .70 cents worth of value on the $1 worth of Lynn, I want nothing to do with Lynn. He doesn't fit the WS push SP profile we need.

 

If you want to go Simmons/Segura/or Miller for me it's still Miller. Miller will be a top 20SP maybe by next season but certainly within 3years. You take the chance that maybe it happens next season with Milwaukee's roster makeup and push to win.

 

I just wonder if StL would take Segura for Miller heads up? If not, what more does Milw have to offer for him?

[paul253]

Is there ANY chance Scooter Gennett could handle shortstop for a year? He was drafted as a SS and played there a few times in his first season. I know defensively he'd be well below average but it would solve two huge issues Milwaukee has going into next season. The first obviously would be figuring out the Weeks/Gennett issue because now they'd both be playing. Then you'd move Segura for Miller who has ace like potential. After next season Weeks leaves, Gennett moves back to 2nd and you deal with the SS issue then.

 

I think if the Brewers were to acknowledge that they are not really going to compete next season that would be a move they could handle. Maybe we could even throw in one of our outfield prospects and get Matt Adams included in the deal and then we wouldn't have to resign Corey Hart. Segura and Davis for Miller and Adams. Gennett plays SS for a year and Aoki goes back to hitting leadoff. A rotation of Gallardo, Lohse, Miller, Peralta and Estrada/Thornburg. Obviously you'd have to sign a defensive minded SS to take over late in games but that shouldn't be all that to find.

[torts]

I would trade segura for Simmons in a heartbeat.

 

I would too. Simmons is a virtual automatic 3.8WAR based on his defense alone. Anything offensive he puts on top of that is icing. About the safest bet at SS you can find. I've also read some accounts that say he could be BETTER than Ozzie Smith as he has a stronger arm. Time will tell.

 

I'd take that over a guy who's probably going to be moved to 2B and may lose a step or two; really knocking his value.

 

but... [sarcasm]does he do backflips?[/sarcasm]

[JohnBriggs12]

Is there ANY chance Scooter Gennett could handle shortstop for a year? He was drafted as a SS and played there a few times in his first season. I know defensively he'd be well below average but it would solve two huge issues Milwaukee has going into next season. The first obviously would be figuring out the Weeks/Gennett issue because now they'd both be playing. Then you'd move Segura for Miller who has ace like potential. After next season Weeks leaves, Gennett moves back to 2nd and you deal with the SS issue then.

 

I think if the Brewers were to acknowledge that they are not really going to compete next season that would be a move they could handle. Maybe we could even throw in one of our outfield prospects and get Matt Adams included in the deal and then we wouldn't have to resign Corey Hart. Segura and Davis for Miller and Adams. Gennett plays SS for a year and Aoki goes back to hitting leadoff. A rotation of Gallardo, Lohse, Miller, Peralta and Estrada/Thornburg. Obviously you'd have to sign a defensive minded SS to take over late in games but that shouldn't be all that to find.

 

 

Hasn't Melvin and Attanasio made it clear they aren't going to "not really compete" and why would they do that with Braun, Lucroy, Gomez, all in their primes, and one more year of Ramirez? "Not really competing" will mean attendance under 2 million. Trust me.

[logan82]

Regular Season, Segura/Miller I believe equal out with maybe even Segura edging out ahead in value due to playing every day.

Segura may play every day but when a starting pitcher is playing they have far more control over a game's outcome than a position player.

[jerichoholicninja]

Regular Season, Segura/Miller I believe equal out with maybe even Segura edging out ahead in value due to playing every day.

Segura may play every day but when a starting pitcher is playing they have far more control over a game's outcome than a position player.

 

First half Segura every day or second half Segura? There are still lots of question marks about what kind of player Jean really is.

[sheetskout]

The Simmons vs Segura debate/trade idea is off subject and rather unlikely to happen when Atl/Milw have franchise SSs? Why would either team discuss swapping them?

 

 

Obviously this wouldn't happen, it's a hypothetical designed to point out what's really valuable among shortstops. I am in no way saying that this is a potential trade.

[Roderick]

I think everyone that is wanting the Miller trade are really subconsciously wanting Yuni to be the SS in 2014.

[paul253]

Hasn't Melvin and Attanasio made it clear they aren't going to "not really compete" and why would they do that with Braun, Lucroy, Gomez, all in their primes, and one more year of Ramirez? "Not really competing" will mean attendance under 2 million. Trust me.

 

They've made it clear that they aren't going to TRY to "not really compete". Unfortunately that's been the case the past few seasons anyway. I think the fans would understand taking a step back one year if it actually means moving forward after that. This as opposed to the "stuck in neutral" Melvin and Mark A. seem to think the fans are ok with. I think Mark A. needs to give his fans more credit. We aren't buying this "if we are .500 and in the wild card discussion until July that'll be good enough" strategy he seems willing to settle for.

 

Beside, I may have spoken incorrectly. Moving Gennett to SS for a year wouldn't exactly be giving up, especially if it resulted in the acquisition of Shelby Miller. I think it may be pretty bad defensively, but the offense would be close to equal while the pitching would presumably take a huge step forward. A defensive minded SS who can take over late in games would help ease the defensive pain of Gennett playing SS.

[RockCoCougars]

It would be tempting, but no. I don't want to revisit the black hole at shortstop.