College Basketball Thread 2013-14

[jjfanec]

Huge game today for Wisconsin. I think they'd probably be solidly on the 4 line win or lose, but I'm of the belief that there's a big difference between a 4 and 5, and today is another opportunity to pick up a huge road win.

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Wisconsin is currently a 3 seed in both Lunardi and Palm's bracket. Their RPI is #5 in the country. If they win today they will be pushing for a 2 seed. I am hoping Wisconsin can be a 3 seed. Their resume is outstanding. If the win today, which I dont expect, they would have road or neutral court wins over Michigan, St. Louis, Virginia, St. John's, UW-GB, West Virginia, and Iowa. That would be a very nice resume.

[brwrsfan]

Wow. Huge road win today!! Showed a lot of character after playing like poop for the first ten minutes of the second half. It's a tad concerning that in both the last two games they had a solid lead and blew it in the early stages of the second half. Can't keep doing that. Despite that, I was hoping at best they'd split the past two games and they've come away with two huge wins.

 

Barring a complete collapse in their next 5 games (Indiana, at PSU, Purdue, at Nebraska, Big Ten tournament), they should at worst be a 4 seed and likely playing in Milwaukee. As it stands right now, I think they're probably right around the top 3/bottom 2 line. Those non-conference wins are outstanding. Their RPI is great, they've won a ton of games away from home and they're playing well at the end of the year (so far). Those are all big plus marks for the committee to see. I think a two is probably their ceiling unless they win out and get a lot of losses from other teams.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Agreed on hoping for a split and then getting two big road wins. Looking at the teams at the top, I know UW has maybe the most impressive collection of wins. Still, Syracuse, Florida, Arizona, and Wichita look pretty good for ones to me. Duke, Kansas, Louisville, and a healthy Michigan State as twos? Maybe there's room for Creighton and/or San Diego State as well? Ken Pom also has Villanova and Virginia ahead of UW and UCLA right behind.

 

Basically, there are a lot of teams with low 2 through high 4 seed potential. I guess defining that separation is what conference tourneys are all about. I don't think the committee could put the Badgers lower than a 4 at this point, but I also don't necessarily see a two as likely. I'd be happy with a three, but, of course, it will be all about matchups no matter the number next to their name...

[jjfanec]

Agreed on hoping for a split and then getting two big road wins. Looking at the teams at the top, I know UW has maybe the most impressive collection of wins. Still, Syracuse, Florida, Arizona, and Wichita look pretty good for ones to me. Duke, Kansas, Louisville, and a healthy Michigan State as twos? Maybe there's room for Creighton and/or San Diego State as well? Ken Pom also has Villanova and Virginia ahead of UW and UCLA right behind.

 

Basically, there are a lot of teams with low 2 through high 4 seed potential. I guess defining that separation is what conference tourneys are all about. I don't think the committee could put the Badgers lower than a 4 at this point, but I also don't necessarily see a two as likely. I'd be happy with a three, but, of course, it will be all about matchups no matter the number next to their name...

 

Kenpom isnt used by the committee. RPI is their computer ranking of choice. Kenpom may be better but it is mostly irrelevant in tourney seeding discussion.

 

There is zero way the Badgers are lower than a 4 seed right now. They are much closer to a 2 than 5 and probably closer to a 2 than a 4.

 

Louisville has no reason to be ahead of the Badgers. They are 1-3 against the RPI top 25 and just 4-4 against the top 50. The Badgers are 6-2 and 8-3. Louisville has an RPI of 35 going into today.

 

The same for Virginia. 1-3 and 3-3 against the RPI top 25 and 50. Head to head loss to Wisconsin. RPI of 17 compared to 5. They dont have as bad of losses but that does not make up for UNC being their big win, followed by Pitt than SMU. That is nothing compared to Florida, MSU, Iowa twice, Michigan, St Louis, and Virginia

 

Zona, Cuse, Florida, Wichita State, Duke, and Kansas are the only teams for sure ahead of Wisconsin. SDSU probably is but their computer numbers are not good at all. MSU all depends on how much the committee factors in injuries but their resume does not compare well with UW. Nova and Creighton are right there. So I think the Badgers are a solid 3 who has a strong case for a 2. If only they would have had a key injury during the losing streak to blame it on

[homer]

Sort of a crazy year in college hoops. Lots of parity. Reminds me of 2011 when UConn won it all. I think we might see a few outliers in the Final Four.

[jjfanec]

Sort of a crazy year in college hoops. Lots of parity. Reminds me of 2011 when UConn won it all. I think we might see a few outliers in the Final Four.

 

I agree. None of the top teams seem great this year. Ashley getting hurt was a big blow to Arizona and MSU cant get healthy and even when they were they were struggling to put teams away. Cuse is not a great team and could easily end up losing 4 straight after being undefeated. Kansas is the scariest team to me. I want no part in them unless it is in the Final Four.

 

Lunardi has Wisconsin up to 8 on his S curve so that would put them at a 2 seed.

 

SDSU getting crushed by New Mexico drops them quite a bit.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Agreed on hoping for a split and then getting two big road wins. Looking at the teams at the top, I know UW has maybe the most impressive collection of wins. Still, Syracuse, Florida, Arizona, and Wichita look pretty good for ones to me. Duke, Kansas, Louisville, and a healthy Michigan State as twos? Maybe there's room for Creighton and/or San Diego State as well? Ken Pom also has Villanova and Virginia ahead of UW and UCLA right behind.

 

Basically, there are a lot of teams with low 2 through high 4 seed potential. I guess defining that separation is what conference tourneys are all about. I don't think the committee could put the Badgers lower than a 4 at this point, but I also don't necessarily see a two as likely. I'd be happy with a three, but, of course, it will be all about matchups no matter the number next to their name...

 

Kenpom isnt used by the committee. RPI is their computer ranking of choice. Kenpom may be better but it is mostly irrelevant in tourney seeding discussion.

 

There is zero way the Badgers are lower than a 4 seed right now. They are much closer to a 2 than 5 and probably closer to a 2 than a 4.

 

Louisville has no reason to be ahead of the Badgers. They are 1-3 against the RPI top 25 and just 4-4 against the top 50. The Badgers are 6-2 and 8-3. Louisville has an RPI of 35 going into today.

 

The same for Virginia. 1-3 and 3-3 against the RPI top 25 and 50. Head to head loss to Wisconsin. RPI of 17 compared to 5. They dont have as bad of losses but that does not make up for UNC being their big win, followed by Pitt than SMU. That is nothing compared to Florida, MSU, Iowa twice, Michigan, St Louis, and Virginia

 

Zona, Cuse, Florida, Wichita State, Duke, and Kansas are the only teams for sure ahead of Wisconsin. SDSU probably is but their computer numbers are not good at all. MSU all depends on how much the committee factors in injuries but their resume does not compare well with UW. Nova and Creighton are right there. So I think the Badgers are a solid 3 who has a strong case for a 2. If only they would have had a key injury during the losing streak to blame it on

 

 

My understanding of the selection process, especially the way it's played out over the last few years, is that a team's RPI isn't nearly as important as the RPI of its opponents. This is how "team sheets" are organized. How did you vs. the top 50? 51-100? 101-50? Etc.

 

This would bode well for Wisconsin, certainly. Things seem to have broken well for a possible 2 this weekend, and I'd agree that a 3 is more likely than a 4 at this point. In the end, I stand by that I think the win yesterday was all about securing a top 4 seed. Those are the "protected" lines, and so there is a much smaller difference between a 3 and 4 and a 4 and 5.

 

I think what would hurt the Badgers most is finishing 3rd or 4th in the league. I know the committee says they don't look at conference affiliation, but if MSU and Michigan both finish with better conference records and then beat UW in the conference tourney? Well, let's hope it doesn't happen.

 

With the right draw, this team can do a lot of damage, especially if Frank continues to play as well as he has and Dekker continues to improve defensively.

[jjfanec]

No mater how RPI is used it bodes very well for the Badgers. Their RPI is good and the teams they have played have very good RPI numbers. Lunardi is usually pretty accurate and with the MSU loss they jump to 7th overall for him. The only teams behind that have a decent case are Nova and Creighton but I dont think both will be ahead of the Badgers.

 

As for the place in conference, I dont think it is going to be a huge factor. They committee repeatedly says what you do in non-conference really matters and that is good news for the Badgers. MSU just picked up its 6th loss and Michigan has 7. I think there is a very good chance Wisconsin ends up tied with MSU. MSU still has to play Iowa and at OSU. They could easily lose one of those. Now UW could easily lose a game but they should be favored in all of them. The Badgers hold the tie breaker over Iowa and MSU so barring a late season collapse I think a top 3 finish is very likely.

 

I think a 3 to 4 seed matters because it changes how early you see a one seed. Now that might not matter as much this year because I dont think the ones are substantially better than the twos.

 

I agree this team could do damage. I think Brust needs to find his shot for that to happen but watching this team with Frank and Sam producing is a lot of fun

[brwrsfan]

Obviously avoiding the top seeds for as long as possible is huge, but let's also not forget about the possibility of playing in Milwaukee for the first two rounds. While it doesn't guarantee anything (it didn't last time as we know), but that's a huge advantage. Close to home, tons of fans, etc. The more wins they get and the higher up the S curve they move, the more and more likely it is that they wind up staying in-state for the first two rounds.

[homer]

Sort of a crazy year in college hoops. Lots of parity. Reminds me of 2011 when UConn won it all. I think we might see a few outliers in the Final Four.

 

I agree. None of the top teams seem great this year. Ashley getting hurt was a big blow to Arizona and MSU cant get healthy and even when they were they were struggling to put teams away. Cuse is not a great team and could easily end up losing 4 straight after being undefeated. Kansas is the scariest team to me. I want no part in them unless it is in the Final Four.

 

Lunardi has Wisconsin up to 8 on his S curve so that would put them at a 2 seed.

 

SDSU getting crushed by New Mexico drops them quite a bit.

 

Kansas would be a fun matchup for UW. The two things KU doesn't do really well is defend the three ball and let the opponent get to the line - two things UW normally excels at on offense.

[jjfanec]

Sort of a crazy year in college hoops. Lots of parity. Reminds me of 2011 when UConn won it all. I think we might see a few outliers in the Final Four.

 

I agree. None of the top teams seem great this year. Ashley getting hurt was a big blow to Arizona and MSU cant get healthy and even when they were they were struggling to put teams away. Cuse is not a great team and could easily end up losing 4 straight after being undefeated. Kansas is the scariest team to me. I want no part in them unless it is in the Final Four.

 

Lunardi has Wisconsin up to 8 on his S curve so that would put them at a 2 seed.

 

SDSU getting crushed by New Mexico drops them quite a bit.

 

Kansas would be a fun matchup for UW. The two things KU doesn't do really well is defend the three ball and let the opponent get to the line - two things UW normally excels at on offense.

 

What scares me about Kansas is Embiid. His size and athleticism could be a nightmare.

[homer]

 

What scares me about Kansas is Embiid. His size and athleticism could be a nightmare.

 

 

Yeah a dominant big man might be bad news given UW's lack of depth in the front court. Maybe Evan Anderson's hero moment?

[jjfanec]

 

What scares me about Kansas is Embiid. His size and athleticism could be a nightmare.

 

 

Yeah a dominant big man might be bad news given UW's lack of depth in the front court. Maybe Evan Anderson's hero moment?

 

Haha. If Anderson plays in an NCAA game we are either in big trouble or have our backups in because we are up big

[fondybrewfan]

Badgers are much closer to a 2 than a 4 at this point. I want no part of Michigan St or Florida in the NCAA tourney. MSU because every stupid year they manage to start playing like they are suppose to in March. And I wouldn't like our rematch against a fully healthy Florida team. That being said UW is capable of beating any team in the tourney. It is really wide open this year; certainly no clear favorite. All of the top teams have been playing pretty crappy lately except for Kansas.

[nate82]

I believe the Badgers will get the 3 seed in the east. I would prefer to be in the midwest than in the east as I believe Wichita State is going to get the 1 seed in that bracket.

[DHonks]

I'm not sure I agree about the parity. Last year was a year of parity. There was nobody that really stood out entering the tournament, and we had teams with 8 or 9 wins in the top 25. This year we have a dominant 5-6 teams at the top, then about 10 teams that are all capable of making a great run, following by more solid teams. This is one of those years where everyone will choose one of about 6 teams to win it all.

[homer]

I'm not sure I agree about the parity. Last year was a year of parity. There was nobody that really stood out entering the tournament, and we had teams with 8 or 9 wins in the top 25. This year we have a dominant 5-6 teams at the top, then about 10 teams that are all capable of making a great run, following by more solid teams. This is one of those years where everyone will choose one of about 6 teams to win it all.

 

 

Really? I thought Louisville was the clear favorite last year.

[jjfanec]

I believe the Badgers will get the 3 seed in the east. I would prefer to be in the midwest than in the east as I believe Wichita State is going to get the 1 seed in that bracket.

 

If they get a 3 seed why wouldnt they be in Milwaukee? We are the highest rated team in the midwest and they look at geography. I read a few days back it seems like UW, Iowa, MSU, Michigan, and maybe Creighton were fighting for Milwaukee

[brwrsfan]

The first round locations are as follows: Buffalo, Milwaukee, Orlando, Raleigh, San Antonio, San Diego, Spokane and St. Louis.

 

Really just two anywhere near here in Milwaukee and St. Louis. At this point, while St. Louis wouldn't be far away, I think Kansas and Wichita State probably have that locked down barring a pretty big collapse. So for Milwaukee, I would think it boils down to two out of the following group: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan and Creighton. Assuming none of those fall flat on their faces in the next two weeks, I think Wisconsin has a pretty good shot. While the location is the closest site to Creighton after St. Louis, it's still over 600 miles away, so I'm not sure that's much of advantage to them. Michigan and MSU both have resumes worse than ours by a relatively substantial margin. Still gotta take care of business the next two weeks and hope for some losses by the others to be sure.

[fondybrewfan]

Lousville was the favorite going into the tourney last year for sure. We still have two weeks of regular season and conference tourney week yet to figure out who the favorites are. I believe Kansas and Florida will be the two sexy picks right away but there are probably 10-12 teams that could win the whole thing including Wisconsin. Odds aren't good that UW could win but it is not impossible. They have just a ton of good wins. How good are those St Louis and Virginia wins looking right now?

 

Lunardi has both MSU and UW playing in MIL the first two rounds. Middle Tennesee St in round #1 and winner of St Johns and Uconn in Round #2. We would also be in Wichita State's bracket along with St Louis & Kansas. I would love that bracket if it weren't for Kansas. I think Lunardi is bat crazy if he thinks Kansas isn't getting a #1 seed

[jjfanec]

Lousville was the favorite going into the tourney last year for sure. We still have two weeks of regular season and conference tourney week yet to figure out who the favorites are. I believe Kansas and Florida will be the two sexy picks right away but there are probably 10-12 teams that could win the whole thing including Wisconsin. Odds aren't good that UW could win but it is not impossible. They have just a ton of good wins. How good are those St Louis and Virginia wins looking right now?

 

Lunardi has both MSU and UW playing in MIL the first two rounds. Middle Tennesee St in round #1 and winner of St Johns and Uconn in Round #2. We would also be in Wichita State's bracket along with St Louis & Kansas. I would love that bracket if it weren't for Kansas. I think Lunardi is bat crazy if he thinks Kansas isn't getting a #1 seed

 

The St. Louis, Virginia, and Florida wins seem to get better every week. Add MSU, Michigan and Iowa twice on top of those and it looks pretty darn good.

 

Kansas will end up as 1 seed as I think Cuse will drop out. Zona, Kansas, Wichita State, and Florida are my guesses. Duke could slide in

[brwrsfan]

Lunardi updated his bracket. Currently has Wisconsin as a 2 seed in the East against Vermont, with UConn/Pitt as the 7/10 matchup. He has them in Milwaukee. Syracuse is the 1 seed in that bracket, with Villanova as the 3. He also has Michigan in Milwaukee as a 3 seed. MSU fell to a 3 seed and moved out of Milwaukee. I really think it's between those 3 teams for the 2 spots in Milwaukee. Take care of business over the next 2 weeks and we should lock up one of those spots.

 

To tack onto what JJ said, not only the wins you mention, we they've also beaten some other potential tournament teams like St. Johns and UWGB - away from the Kohl Center. I think that's getting overlooked. The depth and quality of wins is fantastic, and most of them came away from home (Floriday, MSU and Iowa are the only big home wins).

[fondybrewfan]

I would definitely be OK being in the Syracuse bracket. Other than Wichita St, Syracuse is the other #1 I would most like our match up against.

 

With UW's remaining schedule I think they should be a lock for a #2/#3 seed and will very likely be in Milwaukee opening weekend. If they end up as a #2 I just don't see them not making the 2nd weekend but I guess you never know. This UW team is as loaded as it has ever been; if Brust ever gets his shot back this team could go a really long ways. The keys will still be Dekker and Kaminsky. If they keep playing like they have the last couple weeks than watch out

[FVBrewerFan]

I still think Wisc gets a #1 seed if they run the table. Can't ignore the RPI and SOS numbers. Plus, committee always looks at how a team finishes. So, if Wisc ends up winning their last 9 conf games, then wins the Big Ten tourney, I think they get the #1. Yea, it's a big "if" but possible. Especially if a couple other top seeds lose in their conf tourneys. I've noticed that conf tourneys have meant more in recent years.

[brwrsfan]

I still think Wisc gets a #1 seed if they run the table. Can't ignore the RPI and SOS numbers. Plus, committee always looks at how a team finishes. So, if Wisc ends up winning their last 9 conf games, then wins the Big Ten tourney, I think they get the #1. Yea, it's a big "if" but possible. Especially if a couple other top seeds lose in their conf tourneys. I've noticed that conf tourneys have meant more in recent years.

 

Problem is that the B10 title game ends so late, that the committee has more or less stated that it's hard for them to take that game into account. I find that to be ridiculous, but that's what they've said. I don't think a 1 seed is impossible but I think it would have to include winning the last 4 games, then obviously winning the tournament, probably needing to beat Michigan and MSU along the way. As it currently stand, we'd be the 3 seed and would play either Nebraska or Ohio State, which would be another nice win if they could get it. I still don't think they make a one seed unless a bunch of other teams falter, but it's not that far fetched. We're probably right around 7-9 on the S curve. Meaning we'd have to jump 3-5 other teams to make the one line (and not get passed from behind). Not impossible but we'd have to win out and probably get quite a bit of help.