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Winter Weather Thread: 2013-2014

hawing

By hawing,
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RobDeer 45 ACL Brewers

RobDeer 45

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I love having our own weatherman here.

 

Hahaha! I seriously said that in my head when I read his last post. I was going to then post something about that, but ended up not. Good work Thurston! And OWBC, thanks for all your insight in to the weather. I enjoy it!

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owbc Carolina Mudcats

owbc

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Interesting...but I'm not sure I'm getting the correlation. Is the air cold because the Ocean is cold or is the Ocean cold because the air is cold? If the Air is cold because the Ocean is cold, what causes the Ocean to get cold (or warm)? And if the Ocean is cold because the air is cold is there really a whole lot of predictive value in the AMO?

 

Seems like the same as putting a pot of water on a burner and when it starts boiling saying "I know that burner is hot because the water is boiling" (like the boiling water is causing the burner to be hot) when actually the water is boiling because the burner is hot.

 

Those are good questions. It's believed (but not proven) that fluctuations in the deep ocean thermohaline circulation are responsible. But you are right--ocean currents are driven by the atmosphere: wind, temperature, and salinity (precipitation-evaporation). So it goes both ways in a feedback loop. That's why it oscillates.

 

The important thing to remember is that the ocean is much slower to respond to changes than the air. It only takes about two weeks for air in the jet stream to circle the globe. So if the ocean temperatures change, the jet stream adjusts quickly. On the other hand, the ocean currents move very slow, so it takes a long time to "flip" the pattern back. El Nino/La Nina switches every couple of years because it is driven mostly at the surface (but again, nobody can reliably forecast when it is going to flip).

 

The AMO also doesn't guarantee anything about an individual month or winter, it is best seen when averaging over several years. The Pacific Ocean has its own set of variations--in fact the warm north Pacific might be more to blame for this winter than anything in the Atlantic. The whole system is super complicated so basically people just look at the ocean temps and then go back and find previous years with similar ocean temperatures and see what the weather was like in those years. Sometimes that works, other times it doesn't.

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homer MVP

homer

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3rd snowiest January ever in Chicago. Will most likely be in the top 10 snowiest winters of all time.

 

I'm ready for spring or at least a 40 degree day with sun.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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owbc Carolina Mudcats

owbc

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Glad to provide you all with random weather facts and things...

 

Madison went below zero again last night for the 26th time this year. That's just ridiculous. It looks like the pattern might shift to something warmer around Valentine's day. The extreme cold is hopefully over for this year.

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hawing MVP

hawing

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You guys getting a lot of snow today in Southern WI? Looks like we are going to get dumped on here in the East Coast.

Today's snow is not forecast to be a lot - just an inch or so in Madison.

 

I'm not hoping for doom in the southeast by any means, but the worse the current snowstorm gets, the more ridiculous it is that the Weather Channel decided to name it "Pax." Where's a shaking-my-head smilie when you need one?

Remember: the Brewers never panic like you do.
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fondybrewfan ACL Brewers

fondybrewfan

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I just happened to look at the extended forecast and saw some temperatures starting with a 3 and 4 next week. I have never looked forward so much to above freezing temperatures as I have this year. Probably will be a lot of flooding issues this year. With the ground frozen so deep there won't be any place for the snow runoff to go.
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brwrsfan First Round Pick

brwrsfan

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The Duke/UNC thing was utterly ridiculous. The reason they gave is that the Duke buses couldn't make it on time to pick them up. They knew the snow was coming well in advance...they're only 8 miles apart. Call for the buses early and go. It's just silly to cancel a game due to 6 inches of snow. I didn't look it up, but I'm sure NC gets snow occasionally so the fact that they were this unprepared for it is just a joke to me.
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RobDeer 45 ACL Brewers

RobDeer 45

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It's easy for us Wisconsinites to say that but after living in areas that don't get as much snow, they just don't have the equipment to clear the roads. Plus drivers there turn in to complete disasters. I still laugh at it but I guess I do understand a lot better now.
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owbc Carolina Mudcats

owbc

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It looks like Raleigh fared as bad as Atlanta did last week. Lots of pictures of gridlock and abandoned cars. The snow is much worse on the roads down there--part of the issue is the lack of plowing and salting--but another issue is that the ground isn't frozen so they end up with black ice under all of the snow. There are several other issues--cars don't have traction tires and those areas have many more hills than Wisconsin. It only takes 1/2 inch of snow to make it impossible to get up a hill if it isn't salted.

 

The models have been trending a little colder with the Midwest warmup next week. It still looks like a few days above freezing but most of the precipitation will still be snow--possibly some freezing rain as well.

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Funketown ACL Brewers

Funketown

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It was just a mess. Campus announced at 12:00 that all classes after 1:00 would be cancelled, but offices would stay open until 5:00 PM. By 2:00 PM they shut down the entire campus, but the buses had already stopped running. UNC sent out an official email at 5:28 telling students there would be free entry and open seating to the game (which was still on!), and then at about 5:40 gave official word that the game was indeed cancelled.

 

But, I'm not complaining because I've got a day to stay home and build my two year old a snowman (getting another 2-4 inches today).

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homer MVP

homer

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High 40's for Chicago for late next week. It's a heat wave!
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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molitor fan First Round Pick

molitor fan

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The Duke/UNC thing was utterly ridiculous. The reason they gave is that the Duke buses couldn't make it on time to pick them up. They knew the snow was coming well in advance...they're only 8 miles apart. Call for the buses early and go. It's just silly to cancel a game due to 6 inches of snow. I didn't look it up, but I'm sure NC gets snow occasionally so the fact that they were this unprepared for it is just a joke to me.

 

 

Give me a break.....that area got there yearly average in one day....obviously they do not have the equipment for it....how do you think Milwaukee would do with 55 inches?

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Funketown ACL Brewers

Funketown

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It's also just a matter of population growth. The Research Triangle area (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill) has nearly doubled in population since 2000 to about 2,000,000 people today, so highways tend to get fairly congested during rush hours even when the weather is good. Also, given that most of those million transplants are coming from the Northeast, it's really not a matter of drivers not knowing what to do in the snow so much as the roads forming ice under the snow and the city having no way to clear the roads.

 

But alas, it'll be back into the high 60's by next week, and I'm about ready to break out my sandals again.

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fondybrewfan ACL Brewers

fondybrewfan

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Western and Northern WI looks to be getting a lot of snow but the SE will see mostly rain and freezing rain.

 

I am not so much depressed by the storm tomorrow than I am the forecasted highs in the teens all of next week. We certainly aren't on a warming trend yet. I wish I wasn't stuck inside working today because it is glorious outside.

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