Prince [Fielder]?

[Outlander]

Well it looks like it only took year 2 for Prince to wear out his welcome in Detroit. To me trading for Prince Fielder is the type of move Mark A would be willing to make to make a big splash and keep interest in the Brewers high. Probably more a fantasy and Detroit would have to pick up salary but 1B is still a huge hole for the Brewers and Cabrera is a horrible 3B.

[Kelbysdaddy]

I wouldnt get too excited about it if I were you. He's had a rough post season, he was still great throughout the regular season and I doubt he's "fallen out of favor". Watch him homer in game 6 and tigers fan will only talk about how great he is. Cabrera isn't horrible at third either, he's just pretty bad.

[jerichoholicninja]

I see no way Doug or Mark would make that move. That can't afford the money and don't have the prospects to make it happen.

[brewcrewdue80]

I find it funny to try comparing all Batters numbers in the post season to their Regular season and then say they aren't doing what they are paid to do. So facing PLAYOFF Teams #1,#2 Ace starters twice in a 5 game span should be held against their ability? Like that lack of production from Pitchers that are ACES means those batters have begun decline. Remember who it is these guys are facing against and look what they have done over the season. It's also colder this time of year so balls aren't carrying majority of the time.

 

Just a rant that to me I hold no batter to a high standard when they are in October playing in cold weather vs. Championship caliber pitching that got teams to that point to begin with.

[jerichoholicninja]

I find it funny to try comparing all Batters numbers in the post season to their Regular season and then say they aren't doing what they are paid to do. So facing PLAYOFF Teams #1,#2 Ace starters twice in a 5 game span should be held against their ability? Like that lack of production from Pitchers that are ACES means those batters have begun decline. Remember who it is these guys are facing against and look what they have done over the season. It's also colder this time of year so balls aren't carrying majority of the time.

 

Just a rant that to me I hold no batter to a high standard when they are in October playing in cold weather vs. Championship caliber pitching that got teams to that point to begin with.

 

Why base a player's value off of thousands of regular season PA's when about 100 in the playoffs is so much more important?

[TooLiveBrew]

Here's a response I posted in the '13 postseason IGT thread that seems relevant here:

 

Keep in mind that the difference in [Fielder's] counting stats between 2012 & 2013 is just 5 HRs, 8 H, & 10 BB (& 22 PA). Honestly, you have to factor in going from 17 HBP to 9 this season as well. Over his last 40 games this regular season, he OPS'd .957 & only went hitless 8 times.

 

In short, I think it's a little early to declare that [his power is leaving him]. A drop in HRs should have been expected, moving from Miller Park to Comerica, and I think this is most likely simply a case of a not-as-good season combined with bad luck. Fielder looks like (in terms of 'the eye test') he's in as good of shape as he ever was with the Brewers, so it's pretty hard for me to think he's all of a sudden physically declining at 29. He probably won't age well, but I think this is more an aberration than beginning of a trend.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I wouldn't hold his post-season numbers against him, but I absolutely want ZERO part of the last 3-4 (or even 5) years of that contract. Not to mention the fact that there's a good possibility that his last few years may see him relegated strictly to DH duty, which is something the Brewers can't offer.

[Outlander]

Watch him homer in game 6 and tigers fan will only talk about how great he is.

Well that didn't happen and you certainly won't hear a Tiger talk about how great he is right now. I do work in the Detroit area and know people there and to say he is disliked there is an understatement. May not go to the Brewers but the way everybody is talking around there they will certainly try to shop him around this winter.

[JohnBriggs12]

Tigers won't be able to move that contract. They paid him $60-70 million over what other teams were discussing at the time in large part because money is no object to the 80 something Illitch. Tigers would have to take nothing of any value back and still pick up $9 million per year of his deal to generate interest.

 

Bottom line is if Fielder were in the market now, he'd fetch around $90 million over 6 years. He's still owed $168 over 7.

[logan82]

If you take a pessimistic view of Fielder, 2011 looks like the outlier over the last 4 years.

[sveumrules]

In his "down year" Prince produced the 33rd most runs in baseball, with Jose Bautista & Justin Upton immediately above him and Carlos Gomez & Giancarlo Stanton immediately below him. Sure his defense and baserunning were terrible but if you expected any different that is on you. If Detroit fans are looking for a proven postseason performer maybe they'd like YuniB, I mean he does have a career .310 postseason average.

[JohnBriggs12]

If you take a pessimistic view of Fielder, 2011 looks like the outlier over the last 4 years.

 

Fielder rebounded from a worse year in 2010 than he had in 2013. He's definitely overpaid by a lot, but he's certainly still capable of big seasons. We're not talking Rickie Weeks type numbers even in his worst years.

[trwi7]

If you take a pessimistic view of Fielder, 2011 looks like the outlier over the last 4 years.

 

Fielder rebounded from a worse year in 2010 than he had in 2013. He's definitely overpaid by a lot, but he's certainly still capable of big seasons. We're not talking Rickie Weeks type numbers even in his worst years.

 

Can you please explain how .261/.401/.471 is worse than .279/.362/.457?

[danzig6767]

All of these 7-8-9-10 year deals at huge money are such massive risks of blowing up in the faces of the teams who handed them out. Same with 6-7 year deals for starting pitchers.

 

Just look at the massive long term deals handed out to firstbaseman like Pujols, Prince, and Votto. Pujols already looks washed up and they still owe him roughly 8yrs/200. That Votto contract is insane, they will be paying him 25 million per through ages 35-40.

 

When will these teams learn that the odds of contracts like these are far more likely to become albatrosses than working out well?

[logan82]

In his "down year" Prince produced the 33rd most runs in baseball, with Jose Bautista & Justin Upton immediately above him and Carlos Gomez & Giancarlo Stanton immediately below him. Sure his defense and baserunning were terrible but if you expected any different that is on you. If Detroit fans are looking for a proven postseason performer maybe they'd like YuniB, I mean he does have a career .310 postseason average.

He isn't paid to be the 33rd best hitter in the league. He is paid to be top 10.

[monty57]

I would like to believe that all the complaining about how players signed to monster contracts aren't worth it would lead to GM's "getting smart" and not signing players to those big contracts, but they won't. Right now, those same Detroit fans who are crying about the Fielder contract would probably do cartwheels if the Tigers went out and signed this year's biggest FA to a monster deal. Meanwhile, there are always owners willing to go over budget to pay for that "special" player, and GMs are always eager to spend whatever the owner allots.

 

To the topic of the thread, I think that if the Tigers were to hint that they'd eat some of the contract, Attanasio would wet himself thinking of all the tickets he'd sell if he traded some unknown minor leaguers to get Fielder back. The only question would be whether the Tigers would eat enough money to make it feasible, and how they would structure next year (they could eat 100% of Fielder's contract next year or the Brewers could give them Ramirez/Weeks).

 

I don't think it's at all likely. As Briggs mentioned, the Tigers' owner wants to buy a World Series ring before he dies, so the money owed Fielder isn't an issue to him, and paying to have him gives them better odds at a title than paying not to have him. Plus, we really don't have anything to give up to a team that is more interested in winning than in saving money. However, if they were interested in moving him, I think Attanasio could be persuaded to take on the albatross.

[sheetskout]

This is the issue with long-term mega-deals. They have to work out absolutely perfect to be viewed as a success. This was a major reason I wasn't on the sign-Prince-long-term bandwagon.

[Invader3K]

Prince's OPS this season was .819. While still certainly a very good player, that is a far cry from the numbers he put up the four seasons prior, averaging an OPS of .951. I think it's safe to say that going into his age 30 season next year, he's probably on the decline.

 

Anyway, it would be impossible for the Brewers to trade for him, but it's a fun idea to discuss at least.

[jerichoholicninja]

Prince's OPS this season was .819. While still certainly a very good player, that is a far cry from the numbers he put up the four seasons prior, averaging an OPS of .951. I think it's safe to say that going into his age 30 season next year, he's probably on the decline.

 

Price career OPS+ is 141. He put up a 143 in Milwaukee and is at 135 so far in Detroit. Yes, he's declining but I think the rumors of his demise are rather premature. Moving from Miller Park to Comerica has really hurt his numbers. His OBP with Milwaukee and Detroit are virtually identical (.390/.387) but his average is .013 higher with Detroit (.295/.282) and his SLUG is .049 higher with Milwaukee (.540/.491).

 

You really see the difference when broken down by the ballparks. At Miller he's slashed .286/.399/.566 and at Comerica .304/.400/.512. It's the same thing, OBP the same, higher AVG in Comerica, higher SLUG in Miller.

[brewcrewdue80]

All of these 7-8-9-10 year deals at huge money are such massive risks of blowing up in the faces of the teams who handed them out. Same with 6-7 year deals for starting pitchers.

 

Just look at the massive long term deals handed out to firstbaseman like Pujols, Prince, and Votto. Pujols already looks washed up and they still owe him roughly 8yrs/200. That Votto contract is insane, they will be paying him 25 million per through ages 35-40.

 

When will these teams learn that the odds of contracts like these are far more likely to become albatrosses than working out well?

 

There is something about the 1b deals though...I mean Hunter Morris went in to this season as the "3rd Best" 1b prospect

The 1b position has dried up and when you look at those 3 players and what they've done historically vs. what is coming up the pipeline, I completely see the view as to why an owner would take the long term high paid road.

 

Now, meanwhile Texas signed Andrus to an 8yr extension with what looks like a soon to be flooded MLB SS talents. That contract to me is worse than any of the 3 1b contracts....okay Pujols may be an exception but only because you still wonder his true age.

 

Put it another way via WAR: there were 10 1b to exceed 3WAR on this season 16 to exceed 2WAR. Prince had exceeded 3WAR in 4 of the prior 6seasons...and that is with his defensive limitations as is pounded out over and over...But Don't forget what Detroit has and had for a pitching rotation in considering signing Fielder.

 

SO/K Kings Verlander and Scherzer. Detroit had a team 8.9 K per 9 this season after 8.3 last season. Milwaukee meanwhile had a 7k/9 this year So that is almost 2 outs a game 308 outs overall of balls not put in play which is almost 11games worth of not needing to rely on Fielder's Defensive liabilities. What they rely on is his batting skills. And yes it is down but in a down year removing the defensive aspect of 1b WAR and I'm sure he's still a top 10 1b.

 

And give Detroit credit, they went out there and got Anibal Sanchez in 2012 and resigned him as a FA who added to that High K Octane Pitching staff effectively reducing a weakened Fielding team. oh and then they went and traded for that Superior Defensive SS in the making.

That's an awesome forward thinking FO right there. Something I harped hard about on Lohse and the porous defense a lower K SP was going to have behind him to avoid the signing.

 

Has it gotten them WS championships? No, but they continue to drop Division Banners.

 

 

Edit Add: Just a reminder for those about Detroit and Prince's deal: Victor Martinez is a FA after next season so the final 6 years of that contract there's a strong likelihood Fielder will be a DH while manning 1b when need be.

 

And is Fielder's pay as a DH exorbinant? Well, the White Sox just paid Abreau 11.3MM having never seen a single MLB pitch to more than likely be DH....

[monty57]

The worry about Fielder and just about any other player signed to a nine or ten year deal is generally not whether they are "worth it" in the first few years of the deal, but how overpaid they will be in the final years of the contract. Prince is not in the norm, in that he will still be in his mid-30's when his deal is done, when most long-term deals end when the player is in his late 30's or even 40's. This is why many felt that Fielder was a better option to sign for that long a deal relative to Pujols. The concern with Fielder at the time of the signing was how he will age with his body type.

 

I agree with danzig that there is way too much risk in signing someone to a deal that long at a superstar price. The team has guaranteed to pay the player to continue to perform at a superstar level every year for a decade. There is basically no chance for the player to outperform the contract, while it is very likely they will underperform the contract, potentially significantly.

 

If I'm going 8-10 years with a player, I'd much prefer giving a long-term deal to a star rookie than a free agent, as the risk of the entire contract given to the rookie will cost in total what the free agent will make in about two years. Plus, you're getting the rookie for his 20's, and the free agent for his 30's.

[danzig6767]

All of these 7-8-9-10 year deals at huge money are such massive risks of blowing up in the faces of the teams who handed them out. Same with 6-7 year deals for starting pitchers.

 

Just look at the massive long term deals handed out to firstbaseman like Pujols, Prince, and Votto. Pujols already looks washed up and they still owe him roughly 8yrs/200. That Votto contract is insane, they will be paying him 25 million per through ages 35-40.

 

When will these teams learn that the odds of contracts like these are far more likely to become albatrosses than working out well?

 

There is something about the 1b deals though...I mean Hunter Morris went in to this season as the "3rd Best" 1b prospect

The 1b position has dried up and when you look at those 3 players and what they've done historically vs. what is coming up the pipeline, I completely see the view as to why an owner would take the long term high paid road.

 

Now, meanwhile Texas signed Andrus to an 8yr extension with what looks like a soon to be flooded MLB SS talents. That contract to me is worse than any of the 3 1b contracts....okay Pujols may be an exception but only because you still wonder his true age.

 

The issue isn't the present, it's the back end of these contracts.

 

We already see Pujols in serious decline, but even still productive guys like Prince and Votto have a lot of years left on their contracts. When Votto is 35 is still owed 5yrs/125 million dollars, what are the odds of him still being highly productive vs in noticeable decline which only gets worse as each season goes by? Sure, there is a chance that he can beat the odds and still remain highly productive, but i'd definitely lay my money on him being in decline mode and the Reds desperately trying to find anyone to just assume his contract.

 

Fielder at least has the DH option to where he might end up being able to carve out a David Ortiz like career going forward, but i'd still bet on at least the last three years of his contract not looking pretty for Detroit. Votto's contract i see becoming a bigger albatross in the future.

[reillymcshane]

The contract for Fielder has all the hallmarks of being a pretty bad investment for Detroit. The simple fact is that guys like Prince don't age well (you can argue no one ages well, but I think big-bodied guys even more so). They lose a little speed in their bat (and legs). It quickly turns them from great to average hitters - then albatrosses.

 

I have no clue if Fielder will rebound after putting up an .819 OPS last year. He's only 29, so last season might have been a fluke. I wouldn't be shocked if he hit .300 with 35 HR. But I also wouldn't be shocked if he hit 20-25 HR with an .800 OPS.

 

The good thing for Detroit is that they can move Fielder to DH in 2015 (after Victor Martinez's contract runs out). By then they'll want to get Cabrera off of 3B (likely making room for Castellanos) and over to 1B. Fielder is a bad defender and is only going to get worse as he ages (same with Cabrera). Even if Prince keeps trending downward, he'll likely still be a decent hitter for a few years. A guy hitting 20-25 HR and OPSing .800 isn't great, but he's still good (the average American League DH had a .725 OPS last season).

 

The problem is you tie $24 million into the DH slot, getting good, but not great production.

 

Detroit took the gamble that Fielder had some great years in him. He was only 28 when they got him, so I can understand the attitude. They are built to win now. So they thought they'd get 3-4 years of great Fielder, then 4-5 of mediocre (or bad) Prince. Unfortunately, the 'great' Fielder might be in the past.

[JohnBriggs12]

"The contract for Fielder has all the hallmarks of being a pretty bad investment for Detroit...guys like Prince don't age well"

 

This was never intended to be an investment. It was a very rich, very aged owner trying to insure himself a championship before he's gone. Illitch may not even be around to see the end of Prince's contract. It was about the here and now when he was signed. As for guys like Prince not aging well, there's really nobody that compares with his body type. His legs are like tree trunks. Thicker body guys that have lasted into their 40's include Giambi, Thome and Matt Stairs. But Prince's torso isn't really that out of proportion to his base. Both are large. Prince has been remarkably durable too. He's never been on the DL. Most guys break down physically and he's shown no signs of that.

 

As for the "great Fielder being in the past", lets not forget that the 2010 Fielder was far from great, and he rebounded with vengeance the next season. The same could happen next year. 2013 was by all measures, a great year for pitching. That has something to do with it too.

[CheezWizHed]

As for guys like Prince not aging well, there's really nobody that compares with his body type.

 

Dad?