Arroyo

[TURBO]

Impending free agent Bronson Arroyo is eyeing a three-year deal this winter and doesn't believe the Reds will be the team that gives it to him.

 

Arroyo will turn 37 in February, but with his track record of durability, asking for a three-year pact isn't unreasonable. "I have no preference on where I want to pitch but I’ll certainly consider the team, their chances of winning, and all of that," he said. "I feel I can pitch effectively at 37, 38, and 39 years old. I’ve never missed a start. Never been injured. I’m not a max-effort guy out there, so there’s no big-time wear and tear on me. I loved Cincinnati but I don’t think they’re in position to give me what I want." The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo lists the Blue Jays, Orioles, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, Pirates, Cardinals, and Dodgers as teams that could have interest in Arroyo this winter.

 

Source: Boston Globe Oct 6 - 9:59 AM

 

 

 

Please, please, please NOOOOOOOOO!

[trwi7]

http://weknowgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/what-no-gif.gif

[endaround]

It's from the Globe. And it lists 1/3 of the league.

[JohnBriggs12]

Asking isn't unreasonable. Getting it from Brewers is. Been a nice pitcher for a long time...no upside left.

[fondybrewfan]

One or two year deal wouldn't be all that bad; anything more than that I would be upset with. And of course it would depend on the dollar amount.

 

I really don't expect DM to be all that active in the FA market except for perhaps a low dollar / high injury risk / high upside SP/RP or two.

[reillymcshane]

First, if Arroyo gets a qualifying offer from the Reds, there's no way we should consider him.

 

Second, while I don't really want Arroyo, I could see Mark A. and Melvin think he'd be a good guy to have. A two year deal wouldn't be out of the question.

 

The Brewers would then have a (probable) rotation of Lohse, Gallardo, Arroyo, Estrada and Peralta. It would be a staff that would, potentially, be very average (National League starters had an ERA of 3.87 last year). There's probably not a lot of upside on this rotation, but you could balance the lack of top pitchers by not having anyone really awful (assuming our players can perform at a decent level). Add in a good bullpen and an above average hitting team - and the Milwaukee braintrust will believe that the playoffs are within reach.

 

Considering our starters had a 4.20 ERA last year, having an 'average' starting staff would be great.

 

Regarding Arroyo, his age worries me, plus his home run tendencies. And he'd be going from a good defensive team to the Brewers (meaning mediocre at best). I would expect him to not do as well in Milwaukee. Which makes me think we can get someone who can approach his performance at 1/20th of the price.

 

But if there's no qualifying offer made to Arroyo, I wouldn't be surprised if Melvin went after him.

[JohnBriggs12]

"Considering our starters had a 4.20 ERA last year, having an "average" staff would be great.

 

That's a bit of a misleading stat. They got 31 starts combined by Gorzelanny, Hellweg, Figaro, Burgos, and Fiers. The combined ERA of the 5 projected starters for 2014 was 3.79. The only way Arroyo would make sense is if Melvin got blown away by an offer for Gallardo and they needed a reasonably priced innings eater. I would prefer they look for a guy who's contract might not reflect his upside. I loved Pittsburgh's signing of Liriano last year. Not sure there's an equivalent out there this year, but the Brewers could take a chance on a guy like that for a lot less money than Arroyo is looking for and be able to walk away from it if it doesn't work out.

[torts]

DO NOT WANT THAT LEG KICK

[logan82]

"Considering our starters had a 4.20 ERA last year, having an "average" staff would be great.

 

That's a bit of a misleading stat. They got 31 starts combined by Gorzelanny, Hellweg, Figaro, Burgos, and Fiers. The combined ERA of the 5 projected starters for 2014 was 3.79. The only way Arroyo would make sense is if Melvin got blown away by an offer for Gallardo and they needed a reasonably priced innings eater. I would prefer they look for a guy who's contract might not reflect his upside. I loved Pittsburgh's signing of Liriano last year. Not sure there's an equivalent out there this year, but the Brewers could take a chance on a guy like that for a lot less money than Arroyo is looking for and be able to walk away from it if it doesn't work out.

Because all 5 pitchers we use will be healthy all year and we will not have to fill in with bad pitchers again next year.

[reillymcshane]

"Considering our starters had a 4.20 ERA last year, having an "average" staff would be great.

 

That's a bit of a misleading stat. They got 31 starts combined by Gorzelanny, Hellweg, Figaro, Burgos, and Fiers. The combined ERA of the 5 projected starters for 2014 was 3.79. The only way Arroyo would make sense is if Melvin got blown away by an offer for Gallardo and they needed a reasonably priced innings eater. I would prefer they look for a guy who's contract might not reflect his upside. I loved Pittsburgh's signing of Liriano last year. Not sure there's an equivalent out there this year, but the Brewers could take a chance on a guy like that for a lot less money than Arroyo is looking for and be able to walk away from it if it doesn't work out.

Because all 5 pitchers we use will be healthy all year and we will not have to fill in with bad pitchers again next year.

So true. The Brewers lack of depth really killed us this year. It's something we need if we are to play well next year. last year, we turned to guys who have failed as starters (some repeatedly). That they failed again isn't a shocker. Gorzelanny and Figaro had 15 starts. Hand had 7 (to his credit, he wasn't awful, but he wasn't good either - and his success in the minors has been as a reliever).

 

I can forgive giving Burgos, Fiers and Hellwig a try - at least they were successful minor league starters (or in the case of Fiers, successful last year). But they got 15 starts. That's probably too many, but considering we weren't good, there wasn't lots of choices.

 

All in all we got 38 starts from guys with over a 5.00 ERA. If you can get an 'average' player to replace 30 of those starts, you're doing pretty well.

 

Quality depth is so important - especially for starting pitching. The Cardinals lost Chris Carpenter for the year. Jaime Garcia for 2/3 of the season. They filled their spots with Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha - two rookies with high upside. They didn't sign Jeff Suppan or trade for Kevin Correia.

[paul253]

The problem I have with signing a FA pitcher is this: Tyler Thornburg should be in the starting rotation. But short of a complete spring training blowup by Wily Peralta or Marco Estrada we all know Thornburg would be the guy sent to the bullpen to make room for a guy like Bronson Arroyo. Personally I'd rather just take a chance and see what we have in Thornburg then to sign yet another mid 30's kinda-but-that good starting pitcher who is going to cost us three years and $30 million. Just sign a guy or two to a minor league deal for the sake of depth. In AAA next season we'll have Nelson, who will probably be the first injury replacement, Hellweg, Jungmann, Burgos, and Pena. You'll likely have Fiers in the bullpen. I get it, that's not exactly a list of future Cy Young Award winners but the fact is we are barely a playoff contender with a 100% healthy team. If we are forced to go 7 or 8 deep in the starting rotation the season will look a lot like this season looked, Arroyo or not.

 

We are not one Bronson Arroyo away from competing for the Central Division. So let's see what we have in our young guys over more than a few mostly meaningless September games. Give Thornburg a season, not a few starts (can you imagine if we had only given Wily Peralta a few starts this year?) Sink or swim with what we have. I'm sick of these so-so FA signings that do nothing more than prop up a bad overall team.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think I put this idea in the 2014 Starting rotation thread. But for me, I'd try to pull a fast one by trading away Gallardo mainly, or end up Lohse and then sign Arroyo within the same week. Hopefully tabbing a top 100ish prospect in return and essentially gaining the talented prospect for swapping 1 of Lohse/Gallardo's contracts. If ideally 10mil gets it done over 2-3seasons.

 

Otherwise signing Arroyo and keeping the other 4 of Lohse,Estrada,Gallardo,Peralta leaves zero Rotation spots until injury for Thornburg/Nelson/Jungmann even Hellweg/Pena if warranted. I feel that by locking in 5 rotation spots with 5 guys that should be able to go 32starts..well not Estrada, but by locking in those 5 if you're in the Playoff conversation you're not improving your pitching staff come trade deadline. That is nice and all but who's the Ace of the bunch? Take a look at these playoff teams/matchups....Cole/Wainwright aces. Moore/Lester,Price/Lackey aces Scherzer/Verlander/Colon/Sonny Gray Kershaw/Grienke/Minor/Medlen

 

I just don't see the top talent in pitching staff ability in those 5. So while they'd be 5 pitchers who I'd feel good about to make it through the season without being embarrassing for a Starting rotation. When it comes to a 5-7 game series VERSUS PLAYOFF Teams I'm not a fan. What I envision is a bunch of 4-2 defeats. But the offense against non Ace having, non playoff teams they are 6-3 wins with that staff.

 

The only way you beat those pitching staffs when they throw 2Aces at you in 5 games is to A match up pitch for pitch, and B have your Mashers of the ball come through in the clutch every single time it arises.

 

Oh and btw, this doesn't take in to account that Stl/Pitt. have these super young/talented players joining their teams already or next year. You can guess Wacha will take the mound vs. Westbrook. Martinez/Rosenthal are still in the works, Taveras/Wong is the answer to our Gennett/Davis. And in Pitt. you have Cole/Taillon with SS/OF Hanson/Polanco being their Gennet/Davis.

Pitts. and Stl. are just in such a good place as ballclubs that signing Arroyo and looking at how that stacks up to Stl/Pitt of 2013 is looking at them 1 year too late. Their weakest parts of their ballclubs offensively 2b/RF for Stl are being fixed with Taveras/Wong and in Pitts. with RF-Polanco and SS-Hanson they will be much improved.

All of that improvement for Pitt/Stl at 2mil cost? Well I think Taillon or Cole have ML contracts already but you get the idea pennies on the dollar while we'll be paying Dollars for pennies just to maybe stay competitive and not be embarrassed at how well those 2 teams are about to become for 5years.

 

So No on Arroyo unless it came with my idea of trading away Gallardo or Lohse for a talented prospect so we move sideways with the Big Club but improve on the small club which is what this organization needs.

[JohnBriggs12]

Everyone needs a little more perspective. 2013 was one season. You don't over react to one seasons results. Suddenly everyone is afraid of the Pirates because they got incredible pitching for one season? Ask the Giants and the Phillies and the Nats how long you can count on that. I'll take the Brewer lineup over the Bucs any day. Pitching is always a bit of a crap shoot. Gallardo, with no WBC next spring, might return to his better form. Lohse will have a full spring training, and might avoid a bad month like he had in May. Thornburg might have just figured out how to pitch. He's always had the stuff. Peralta might develop more consistency and be a big winner. Yeah those are "mights" but that's the nature of the game.

[brewmann04]

I agree there alot of one year wonders in baseball and have to think if the Pitchers and Hitters can avoid a Month like May we might just suprise. I don't see them signing a vet to a 3-4 year deal. DM will look at getting a Vet for one Year who struggled this season.

[JohnBriggs12]

I agree there alot of one year wonders in baseball and have to think if the Pitchers and Hitters can avoid a Month like May we might just suprise. I don't see them signing a vet to a 3-4 year deal. DM will look at getting a Vet for one Year who struggled this season.

 

 

Exactly, a vet at a discount or one coming off an injury that's now ready to pitch that can add to rotation depth at little expense. Guys like that typically can be had on minor league deals with out clauses after 60 days in the minors assuming they don't make the club out of spring training. That would give the Brewers a veteran fall back in addition to the Nelsons, etc. if Thornburg struggles out of the gate. The key to next season will be the Gallardo we saw in the 2nd half, and solid healthy seasons from Estrada and Lohse, and a step forward from Peralta. If Thornburg continues where he left off, that's a huge bonus but they have some flexibility if he doesn't.

[brewcrewdue80]

Everyone needs a little more perspective. 2013 was one season. You don't over react to one seasons results. Suddenly everyone is afraid of the Pirates because they got incredible pitching for one season? Ask the Giants and the Phillies and the Nats how long you can count on that. I'll take the Brewer lineup over the Bucs any day. Pitching is always a bit of a crap shoot. Gallardo, with no WBC next spring, might return to his better form. Lohse will have a full spring training, and might avoid a bad month like he had in May. Thornburg might have just figured out how to pitch. He's always had the stuff. Peralta might develop more consistency and be a big winner. Yeah those are "mights" but that's the nature of the game.

 

 

I don't feel one bit like I'm overreacting to Pitts. season. I'd take Pitts. pitching staff over Milw. in a minute going in to next season. And the bats you are looking at are like this projecting next season: LF:Marte CF:McCutchen RF:Polanco/Tabata until Polanco takes it over permanently 1b:tbd 2b:Walker SS:Hanson 3b:Alvarez C:Martin

 

Alen Hanson #39 prospect SS this season:.274/.329/.427/.755OPS 8HRs/30SBs Replacing Clint Barmes: .211/.249/.309/.558OPS 5HRs 0SBs Huge upgrade This is Pitts Jean Segura next season

Gregory Polanco #13 prospect OF this season: .285/.356/.434/.791OPS 12HRs 38SBs He'll replace Tabata who had some success this season: .274/.337/.411/.748OPS 6HRs 4SBs But still an upgrade.

 

And the pitching 1yr wonders are being replaced full time by Cole,Taillon the #10 Prospect, Liriano, and then Jeff Locke/Charlie Morton round their 4/5 and future staff addons of Heredia/Glasnow/Kingham in the waits. And Mr Wandy Rodriquez just may be their #6 for insurance on Locke/Morton. There is far more upside and security in knowing Pitts. is an 85+ win team next year. They have 4 legit OFs Walker/Hanson with Mercer as backup. Alvarez at 3b Martin with former top 5 draft pick Tony Sanchez backup at C. Their only weakness next season at the plate is 1b. Who knows? Maybe they put Walker there if they can't tab a decent 1b in FA. I'd put Pitts. offense as equal if not better than Milw next season with Aoki potentially be removed from Leadoff which leaves a big hole for someone to fill.