Brandon Phillips and the Statistical Oddity

[DuWayne Steurer]

I don't know how you would filter a site like fangraphs or B-R to easily figure this out, but I would wager that Phillips current .711 OPS has to be amongst the lowest, if not lowest ever for a guy in the modern (post 1900) era for a guy with 100 RBI. I can't fathom a guy reaching 100 RBI with a sub-.700 OPS.

 

I've always argued that anybody who bats 4th, who can hit .250, and hit 20 - 25 homers with 3 decent OBP guys in front of him can reach 100 RBI, and this is the ultimate argument that RBI is a somewhat meaningless statistic. Does anyone know of an easy way to filter a site like fangraphs to see if Phillips truly is the *worst* 100 RBI guy ever?

 

Also, it should be pointed out that Phillips made it to 100 RBI because Joey Votto only had 70 some RBI because of his massive walk totals. Votto is actually getting chided by some of the media for taking so many walks, and not trying to drive in some of those runners.

 

Yeah......getting on base is teh suxors.....

[DuWayne Steurer]

Well butter my biscuits. Just at random, I guessed that Ruben Sierra might have been one of those guys. Lots of RBI, but terrible OBP skills. Turns out in 1993, Ruben drove in 101 runs, while putting up a .233/.288/.390 slash line, for a putrid .678 OPS. Wow. Just wow.

[trwi7]

Listening to Thom Brennaman tout Phillips' MVP candidacy while getting on Votto for not driving in runs is both hilarious and embarrassing.

[jerichoholicninja]

Didn't Phillips hit second for a good chunk of the year too?

[Baldkin]

You want crazy? Joe Carter did it not once, but TWICE with a sub .700 OPS. 1990 and 1997.

[DuWayne Steurer]

You want crazy? Joe Carter did it not once, but TWICE with a sub .700 OPS. 1990 and 1997.

 

He's the other guy I knew I should have checked.

 

You see, I knew it wasn't going to be anyone from the dead ball era......I just knew it wasn't. There weren't enough 100 RBI guys from that time for there to be a 'bad' hitter to be in a prime lineup spot with the ability to collect 100 RBI.

[Outlander]

I thought for sure Dave Kingman would make the list but his closest year was his last year when he had a 210/255/431 slash with 94 RBI.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Listening to Thom Brennaman tout Phillips' MVP candidacy while getting on Votto for not driving in runs is both hilarious and embarrassing.

 

I'm sorry, but he's right in his criticisms of Votto. The Reds didn't commit 200 million to him to only drive in 70 runs. If you look at his stats he shouldn't be batting clean up, but rather leadoff spot or 2 hole. Cleanup hitters get 200 million not a player in leadoff or 2 hole type.

[Baldkin]

You're probably right, he should be hitting 2nd, but not for the reasons you state. The teams best hitter should hit second. This season the Reds have gotten a wonderful .283 OBP from the 2-hole.

 

He's also hit 3rd almost all season, which is the worst spot for him to hit.

 

Oh, and he's only had 189 PA with RISP. He has a .480 OBP in those situations. Clearly, what he should've done is made more outs to help his team more.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I thought for sure Dave Kingman would make the list but his closest year was his last year when he had a 210/255/431 slash with 94 RBI.

 

Kingman came to mind for me as well, he didn't quite make the cut.

 

Tony Armas had a .707 OPS in 1983, with 103 RBI (with a .256 OBP!!!)

[reillymcshane]

Tony Batista has a .663 OPS with 99 RBI in 2003. A .270 OPS. Ouch.

[Frisbee Slider]

Some Brewers RBI performances of note:

 

Greg Vaughn had 98 RBI with .319 OBP in 1992

 

Corey Hart had 91 RBI with .300 OBP in 2008

 

Dale Sveum had 95 RBI with a .303 OBP in 1987

 

Yuniesky Betancourt was # 3 in RBI for the 2011 Brewers with 68 RBI and .652 OPS

 

Casey McGehee was # 4 in RBI that year with 67 RBI and a .626 OPS.

 

They combined for 1184 PA in 2011.

[PrinceFielderx1]

You're probably right, he should be hitting 2nd, but not for the reasons you state. The teams best hitter should hit second. This season the Reds have gotten a wonderful .283 OBP from the 2-hole.

 

He's also hit 3rd almost all season, which is the worst spot for him to hit.

 

Oh, and he's only had 189 PA with RISP. He has a .480 OBP in those situations. Clearly, what he should've done is made more outs to help his team more.

 

And then explain to me why a 2 hole hitter is getting paid 200 million? Doesn't make sense.

[trwi7]

Because he's one of the best hitters in the game. Seems simple enough.

[jerichoholicninja]

You're probably right, he should be hitting 2nd, but not for the reasons you state. The teams best hitter should hit second. This season the Reds have gotten a wonderful .283 OBP from the 2-hole.

 

He's also hit 3rd almost all season, which is the worst spot for him to hit.

 

Oh, and he's only had 189 PA with RISP. He has a .480 OBP in those situations. Clearly, what he should've done is made more outs to help his team more.

 

And then explain to me why a 2 hole hitter is getting paid 200 million? Doesn't make sense.

 

Players who are paid highly are generally really good at what they do. Giving the 2nd most plate appearances to a really good player makes sense, doesn't it?

[Baldkin]

You're probably right, he should be hitting 2nd, but not for the reasons you state. The teams best hitter should hit second. This season the Reds have gotten a wonderful .283 OBP from the 2-hole.

 

He's also hit 3rd almost all season, which is the worst spot for him to hit.

 

Oh, and he's only had 189 PA with RISP. He has a .480 OBP in those situations. Clearly, what he should've done is made more outs to help his team more.

 

And then explain to me why a 2 hole hitter is getting paid 200 million? Doesn't make sense.

 

If you don't understand why Joey Votto is getting paid 200 million, I'm not sure what more I can do. He's the active leader in OBP. He is the best player in baseball at doing the thing that helps your team score the most: Not making outs.

 

He's "wasted" hitting 3rd, because the 3rd hitter comes up the most with 2 outs and no one on over the course of a season.

He'd be better hitting 2nd, with his OBP, getting on in front of high SLG/LOW obp guys, like Brandon Phillips (who, by the way, has 100 RBI's almost as a direct result of Votto hitting in front of him -- 300 PA's with guys on this season).

[PrinceFielderx1]

Cincinnati could get another 100+ RBI player with good obp, add a above average 2 hole hitter, and resign choo and have a much better team at the cost of Votto. Votto wont be pitched to with runners on. In my opinion you don't give 200 million to a player who can't drive in 100 rbi's.

[trwi7]

A 100+ RBI player with a good OBP is going to cost at least $100 million on the free agent market, Choo is going to cost about $100 million on the free agent market and an above average 2 hole hitter is going to cost what at least $50 million? So you're already at $250 million and probably over budget.

 

And can't drive in 100? He did in 2010 and 2011, so you saying he can't obviously isn't true. The guy does the one thing every hitter should want to do, get on base and get on base a ton. I'll fill my lineup with 9 Joey Vottos and you can go find guys who "can drive in 100 runs", I'm guessing I'll outscore your team the vast majority of the time.

[PrinceFielderx1]

A 100+ RBI player with a good OBP is going to cost at least $100 million on the free agent market, Choo is going to cost about $100 million on the free agent market and an above average 2 hole hitter is going to cost what at least $50 million? So you're already at $250 million and probably over budget.

 

And can't drive in 100? He did in 2010 and 2011, so you saying he can't obviously isn't true. The guy does the one thing every hitter should want to do, get on base and get on base a ton. I'll fill my lineup with 9 Joey Vottos and you can go find guys who "can drive in 100 runs", I'm guessing I'll outscore your team the vast majority of the time.

 

He wont ever have 100 rbi's in the Reds current line-up.

[CheezWizHed]

Is there a way to track the number of PA with RISP and compare that to other sluggers? Are his intentional BBs up compared to other big sluggers also?

[sveumrules]

http://tinyurl.com/kytdzmh

 

Not sure if that is exactly what you're looking for, CHZWZHD, but it is the best RBI calculator I've come across. Looks like among Brewers who batted with at least 100 base runners Rickie drove in the lowest % at 6.67 (8th worst in MLB) while Lucroy drove in the highest % at 17.83 (25th best in MLB).

[jerichoholicninja]

Votto doesn't drive in many guys (for a superstar hitter) because he walks so much. I'm a firm believer in OBP as much as the next guy (Votto's led the NL the last 4 years in that category) and, while walking isn't a bad thing (he led the NL in walks last year despite playing only 111 games), he can do so much damage when he swings the bat that you'd think in some situations it's be better for the team if he swings.

[RightFieldCoder]

One of the reasons he does so much damage is he doesn't swing at pitches out of the strike zone. Pitchers know they have to throw the ball in the zone or they will walk him. The same pitcher can attack someone like Yuni with pitches out of the zone and know there is low likelihood of a walk.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Here's the point though.........was Votto hurting the team by not driving in runs? He got on base, and a guy with a pretty bad slash line (Phillips) drove in over 100 runs. What does it matter WHO drove in the runs, as long as they got driven in? Phillips and Jay Bruce both had over 100 RBI, so those runs were still getting knocked in. Cincinnati had a run expectancy of 703 runs (or thereabouts) and scored 698, so they were within 5 runs of expectency over 162 games. Obviously Votto not swinging at things outside of his comfort zone isn't costing the team runs. Methodology isn't as important here as the result. And the result is that Cincinnati was still scoring the expected amount of runs that they should have, as a direct result of Votto's obscene OBP.

 

Some may argue that Votto isn't an elite hitter because he's not driving in runs. That's nonsense. He's creating runs, and that's all that matters. He's not making outs 45% of the time, and that's the absolute definition of elite in this day and age. RBI is an antiquated notion that doesn't necessarily need to go away, but it can no longer be tied so intrinsicly to performance.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't think it's a statistical oddity when you have what 2 .400 OB guys batting ahead of you? Especially when 1 is Votto who walks so frequently meaning likely a ton of 2men OB ABs.

 

As to the Votto bashing, Look at his splits:RISP .291/.477/.455/.932 Pretty much in line with his season average. You look at situational and runners on 2/3 and 1/2/3 he's 1/17 with 11BBs

And the 2outs RISP: 6/37 with 15BBs .162/.415/.351 2HRs 13RBI but 4 of them came with 2out Bases loaded walks! So 9RBI via hits on the season with 2out RISP. That is likely why he's getting bashed. Is he really deserving of the bashing? No. It's one year and 5-6hits short of being to his average. He had another 6+WAR season which on a 4.5mil/perWAR basis is worth 27+mil on the season. Only paid 17mil this year so how much more performance do you need from him?