Gindl in 2014

[reillymcshane]

Wondering what people think about Caleb Gindl being our primary RF in 2014.

 

He's been pretty good since coming up - showing good patience at the plate and decent power. From what I've seen so far, I really like his swing. He's not trying to overdo things and isn't hacking at stuff. In the minors, he hasn't had big splits, so he could, conceivably, play every day.

 

Is it unrealistic to ask for a .780-.800 OPS out of him? I'm not expecting him to hit 25 HR, but 15 doesn't seem out of the question.

 

You could platoon him with Davis, but that might compromise your defense a bit too much.

 

If you put Gindl in RF, you could then trade Aoki for an asset or two.

[FVBrewerFan]

I've been thinking about this a lot, since there's a lot of different ways to put the OF together next year. I'm open to a few options, but I think what I prefer best is:

 

LF Davis

CF Gomez

RF Braun

4thOF Gindl

5thOF Schaefer

 

Not the greatest starting corner OF defensively, but I would like to start out the year giving Davis a full time position. Gindl could still be a late inning defensive replacement, PH, and get some starts here and there. But it's a long season, and he should get plenty of ABs. May even end up starting depending on how he's hitting vs how Davis doing.

 

I do like Aoki, but they have younger, cheaper options that should be able to put up similar numbers and give you better defense as well.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's not really clear in my mind that Davis is a better offensive player than Gindl. Both generate a ton of bat speed. I see a lot of Matt Stairs in Gindl.

 

I don't see them going with an all right handed lineup. That's why if Aoki gets traded and Hart returns, I see Gindl in RF, with Schafer and Halton as OF backups and Davis back in AAA playing everyday perhaps learning a new position.

[DHonks]

I think people are forgetting just how great Gindl has been in the minors. He has a Gamel-like track-record--much better than Taylor Green or Schafer. Davis has been very good, but Gindl can play more positions and is left-handed. I would prefer to have a pseudo-platoon with Davis and Gindl.

[MNBrew]

I've liked what I've been hearing about Gindl for a few years now and I like envisioning scenarios where he's in the lineup having regular success.

 

However, as one of my buddies puts it when I get optimistic about rookies who fare well in September when the team's out of contention.... This often is the MLB equivalent of "garbage time" in the NBA (witness last year's young starting pitchers -- Fiers & Rogers in particular). In some cases the numbers are legit. In others, September doesn't prove a true test of their big-league-worthiness. ST & the start of next year usually are a more accurate indicator.

[reillymcshane]

I've liked what I've been hearing about Gindl for a few years now and I like envisioning scenarios where he's in the lineup having regular success.

 

However, as one of my buddies puts it when I get optimistic about rookies who fare well in September when the team's out of contention.... This often is the MLB equivalent of "garbage time" in the NBA (witness last year's young starting pitchers -- Fiers & Rogers in particular). In some cases the numbers are legit. In others, September doesn't prove a true test of their big-league-worthiness. ST & the start of next year usually are a more accurate indicator.

Very, very true. Often times it's guys just called up from the minors playing against other guys just called up from the minors.

[igor67]

I like Gindl more as the 4th OF. The track record is very consistent, but that also works against him at this point when you put that together with the scouting and tools. There is little reason to think that at his peak he would post anything much over about an .820 OPS. Given reasonable playing time he is unlikely to do worse than a .750 OPS either. Combined with good defense that's a pretty valuable 4th OF, and in this lower offense era wouldn't even be horrible as a starter. With Davis though he has shown enough you really have to see where he can settle in as a player. With the defensive difference I could see some scenarios where Gindl ends up as the better player overall, but Davis could be a .900 OPS guys and you have to give that a shot.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like Gindl more as the 4th OF. The track record is very consistent, but that also works against him at this point when you put that together with the scouting and tools. There is little reason to think that at his peak he would post anything much over about an .820 OPS. Given reasonable playing time he is unlikely to do worse than a .750 OPS either. Combined with good defense that's a pretty valuable 4th OF, and in this lower offense era wouldn't even be horrible as a starter. With Davis though he has shown enough you really have to see where he can settle in as a player. With the defensive difference I could see some scenarios where Gindl ends up as the better player overall, but Davis could be a .900 OPS guys and you have to give that a shot.

 

 

I'm going to revert again to my Matt Stairs comparison. Stairs first couple years in AAA, he put up modest OPS numbers of .777 and .764 and was back in AA as a 26 year old. He never hit more than 13 HR in the minors. So the assumption that Gindl's upside is set is premature. Davis has upside to be sure, but with the roster as it is, they need a left handed bat in the everyday lineup, and Gindl is that guy assuming Aoki is dealt.

[fleehaw]

I would target around 140 games for Braun in RF to try and keep him healthy from nagging injuries.

 

That leaves 184 games in the corner OF for Gindl and Davis to split. That's a good chunk of playing time for both in a soft platoon.

[Roderick]

I've been thinking about this a lot, since there's a lot of different ways to put the OF together next year. I'm open to a few options, but I think what I prefer best is:

 

LF Davis

CF Gomez

RF Braun

4thOF Gindl

5thOF Schaefer

 

Not the greatest starting corner OF defensively, but I would like to start out the year giving Davis a full time position. Gindl could still be a late inning defensive replacement, PH, and get some starts here and there. But it's a long season, and he should get plenty of ABs. May even end up starting depending on how he's hitting vs how Davis doing.

 

I do like Aoki, but they have younger, cheaper options that should be able to put up similar numbers and give you better defense as well.

 

I agree exactly with what you have posted, other than that Schafer would be the late inning defensive replacement. I don't think we will get a lot for Aoki, but it would be something, plus the savings of $1.5M.

[BrewCrewForever]

I like Aoki, have enjoyed watching his style of play the past two seasons, but with Braun, Gomez and the three young guys (Davis, Schafer, Gindl) there is no reason to have Aoki on this roster. I am sure they can get something for him in trade, not a lot, but something and save the $$.

[gregmag]

I've liked what I've been hearing about Gindl for a few years now and I like envisioning scenarios where he's in the lineup having regular success.

 

However, as one of my buddies puts it when I get optimistic about rookies who fare well in September when the team's out of contention.... This often is the MLB equivalent of "garbage time" in the NBA (witness last year's young starting pitchers -- Fiers & Rogers in particular). In some cases the numbers are legit. In others, September doesn't prove a true test of their big-league-worthiness. ST & the start of next year usually are a more accurate indicator.

I don't really buy either the NBA comparison or the Fiers / Rogers comparison. As to the NBA, teams are still trying to win games, and teams in pennant races are playing harder now than at any point in the season. As to the pitchers, I think a lot of us thought Rogers' late-season performance was fools' gold. Fiers was good for much more than a September call-up, and I still think he may be good again; but if he fails, it will come down to a lack of stuff that a lot of people, again, have warned about for ages.

 

The common denominator in all of these cases is minor league performance. We know a ton about these guys. I wouldn't judge them solely on their late-season numbers. Early season next year is no more probative than late season this year, and spring training is next to worthless as a basis for evaluation. But when guys perform at a certain level for years in the minors, and then come up and keep doing it . . . well, nothing is guaranteed in life, but that's pretty good information.

 

I like Gindl a lot, and Briggs makes a good point about handedness. But there's a pretty decent chance that Davis is a lot better hitter than Gindl, and I think that makes it a tough choice. You can't send Davis back to AAA; he has nothing left to prove. In my perfect world, Braun would move to 1b and all the young guys (plus Aoki, who's still more useful than any of our apparent non-Braun 1b options, unless he's more useful still as trade bait) would rotate around Gomez in the of.

[CheezWizHed]

Combined with good defense that's a pretty valuable 4th OF, and in this lower offense era wouldn't even be horrible as a starter. With Davis though he has shown enough you really have to see where he can settle in as a player. With the defensive difference I could see some scenarios where Gindl ends up as the better player overall, but Davis could be a .900 OPS guys and you have to give that a shot.

 

I'm agreement with this.

 

I'm not sure why its so important to have a starting OF that is left handed? Its nice, but if the RH player is a better hitter and you have a LH player on the bench, I wouldn't think that would matter much.

 

Playing the law of averages, I wouldn't ever bet on someone taking Stairs' career path; At least in the post steriod era. Not saying Stairs was a user, but in general, very few players develop power in the majors after showing little in the minors. Sure, it can happen, but its uncommon.

[TURBO]

I like that we have options in the OF, but I'd like to see Davis in LF, Gomez in CF, and Braun moved to RF. I'd like this to be our every day starting line-up and see what happens.

 

I seriously want no part of Ryan Braun anywhere near one of our infield positions. He is an outfielder, let him play outfield.

 

Trade Aoki for the best deal we can get, and let Gindl be our 4th outfielder.

 

This is what I'd like to see happen.

[bani1717]

I agree that we should try to trade Aoki, but we shouldn't be so dead set on trading him that we decide we'll just take whatever we can get for him. If teams aren't offering much for Aoki, then Melvin better look into seeing what we can get for any of our other outfielders.

[igor67]

In terms of being a chance to pick up value trading Aoki makes sense, but Aoki would be a better 5th OF than Schaffer at this point so I agree we shouldn't be so determined to trade him that we just take a random guy.

[endaround]

Schafer has been terrible in MLB this season but not that far behind his projections. ZiPS had him at .261/.312/.385. Schafer has a really low BABIP, you move it up to .300 you get his ZiPS line. I guess the point is that people seem to be expecting Schafer to do something when there is no reason to expect any better,

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree that we should try to trade Aoki, but we shouldn't be so dead set on trading him that we decide we'll just take whatever we can get for him. If teams aren't offering much for Aoki, then Melvin better look into seeing what we can get for any of our other outfielders.

The prime time to trade Aoki has come & gone. Now, I can't imagine any team being willing to give up much for one season of a below-average corner OF (ranked 19th of 21 qualifying RFs by WAR (FanGraphs), 17/21 in wOBA, 19/21 in OPS) entering his age-32 season, which will also be his walk-year prior to free agency. And it's not like he's a really good defender to help compensate for the subpar bat.

 

I mean, what honestly would we want to see Melvin part with for that player? I wouldn't want to see even a Caleb Gindl, Scooter Gennett, or a Krush Davis traded for that kind of player.

[Roderick]

In terms of being a chance to pick up value trading Aoki makes sense, but Aoki would be a better 5th OF than Schaffer at this point so I agree we shouldn't be so determined to trade him that we just take a random guy.

 

Are you willing to pay $2M to Aoki to be the backup CF / late inning defensive replacement, when Schafer can be paid $500K to do it? I am of the opinion of no, so, yes, I would trade Aoki for just a random guy.

[monty57]

I wouldn't want to see even a Caleb Gindl, Scooter Gennett, or a Krush Davis traded for that kind of player.

 

In my opinion, that's a good way to "take the Brewer goggles" off when looking at a trade. Since I wouldn't give up a decent, young MLB-ready player, I don't really expect one back. We could probably get another vet in a similar situation at a different position, but any MLB-ready young ("team controlled") player we'd get wouldn't be very good.

 

Personally, I'd prefer a higher-upside guy in the low minors to a below-average veteran in his last year, or to a low-upside/MLB-ready guy. Either way, I'd like to see him traded, as I think Gindl/Davis make a better corner OF option, and Schafer is a better option to back up Gomez in CF.

 

To me, that means big decision is whether or not to pick up the option. Is Melvin certain that we could we get enough in trade that he picks up the option, or do we pick up the option and then get "stuck" with Aoki in 2014 when we probably have better, cheaper alternatives?

[Outlander]

Schafer has been terrible in MLB this season but not that far behind his projections. ZiPS had him at .261/.312/.385. Schafer has a really low BABIP, you move it up to .300 you get his ZiPS line. I guess the point is that people seem to be expecting Schafer to do something when there is no reason to expect any better,

I agree with you and don't ever expect Schafer to be a regular but I think he is getting to the point where he is about as good as Aoki and really is a very good outfielder, something that isn't captures in a ZiPS line.

[djoctagone]

as the 2014 season progressed, it looked like gindl might be getting more playing time with the big club--especially with injuries to braun and gomez, and the fact that the brewers were playing with a glut of infielders and short a true outfielder.

 

gindl has no options remaining come 2015. gerardo parra is under club control through 2015. if the brewers had wanted to platoon khris davis, you think they would've given logan schafer more starts in left field.

 

obviously, those opportunities hardly ever came for gindl, and they don't look to be forthcoming this year.

 

i'm wondering if gindl is even on the 40-man roster come 31 august.

[chadomac]

He was very good last year and I was always surprised that he wasn't given more consideration to platoon with Davis this year... but he has NOT been good this year at all to warrant more opportunities.

[djoctagone]

i'm wondering if gindl is even on the 40-man roster come 31 august.

i'm sure the brewers were certain on 31 august that they were going to designate gindl for assignment. postseason roster eligibility rules have changed slightly, so had the brewers dfa'd gindl on 31 august and added one of matt clark or hector gomez to the 40-man roster that same day (without recalling him), that player would be available for postseason play without having to justify via the injury of another player.

[Thurston Fluff]

I doubt there was any chance at all of either of them making the post season roster unless of an injury anyway. Given how wrong I was about how easy it is to DL someone does it matter? If they really want them on the playoff roster the guy they didn't want on it will get "injured." Good call on Gindl BTW. Well not really you were off by a couple days.