Masahiro Tanaka

[reillymcshane]

Just for fun, I'm going to throw out Masahiro Tanaka as potential free agent to consider. I realize that the Brewers are not likely to get into big money players like this, but I thought it was something to consider.

 

Here's Tanaka's stats:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/japan/player.cgi?id=tanaka003mas

 

In 2013, he is currently 20-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA. He'll be 25 in November. A lot of people will compare him to Yu Darvish, but from what I've read, he doesn't have the killer fastball that Darvish has.

 

The Rangers spent $112 million on Darvish. $52 million on the posting fee, then a six year, $60 million contract for the player. If Tanaka is posted this offseason (not a guarantee), he probably cost just as much (I base this on the fact that while he probably isn't considered as good as Darvish, there's more and more money available to spend than a couple of years ago).

 

The Brewers were willing to do $100 million for Greinke two years ago. If you had the chance, would you be willing to do a similar number for Tanaka?

 

Again, I realize that the Brewers are highly unlikely to put down a $50 million posting fee. They simply don't have that kind of cash. But I was wondering what people thought about the guy.

 

It should be noted that the top, young arms in free agency are Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Nolasco and Lincecom. None of those guys is without warts (durability, injuries, inconsistency), but they could probably be had for less.

 

But Tanaka might be the type of guy who could become a #1 or #2 type pitcher for quite a few years. He's only 25 and he's dominated Japan.

[Invader3K]

Isn't this the guy talked about elsewhere on the board that has an insane amount of innings on his arm already?

[jerichoholicninja]

Going by the B-Ref stats he's pitched almost a full MLB starters season worth of innings every year since he was 18 but only once over 200. You can look at that as a lot of innings or a history of good health.

[TheCrew07]

Isn't this the guy talked about elsewhere on the board that has an insane amount of innings on his arm already?

 

No. That's Tomohiro Anraku who's still a teenager. He's got his own thread.

 

I've posted a couple of articles about Tanaka in the International Signings thread.

[JackNicholson1974]

What does the scouting report say about whether or not Tanaka has marbles?

[RWeeksFan23]

What does the scouting report say about whether or not Tanaka has marbles?

LOL!

[brewcrewdue80]

Let Insanity begin! He's being posted.

 

From the sounds of rumors he's going to get 100mil or more. I am honestly wondering, next year will this guy make as much as David Price?

 

For all things done in this offseason, Seattle get him! I will hate it if Yanks, Cubs, Dodgers, buy him.

[PrinceFielderx1]

A few facts,

 

Major League Baseball/Nippon Pro Baseball posting agreement, ratified DEC 16, makes it so there is literally no punishment for any team checking in with a posted player.

 

Here are the big rules to the new agreement:

 

1. An NPB team will name a "release fee" for a player not exceeding $20 million. That is the amount that an MLB team will have to bid, or I guess just agree to at this point, to pay if they were to sign the player.

 

2. The NPB team will then officially post the player, along with the fee, between Nov. 1 and Feb. 1.

 

3. For 30 days following the posting, any of the 30 MLB teams can negotiate with the player so long as they are willing to give up the designated release fee. If an agreement is reached, fee goes to the NPB team, player to the MLB team. If not signing is made within 30 days, the player is returned to his NPB team and cannot be reposted until the following year.

 

What this means is the highest the posting fee can be is 20 million and that means anyone of the 30 MLB teams can offer to pay the 20 million and start negotiating with him to try to work out a deal. 20 million at least for the next 3 years according to the agreement. This means more teams involved. The teams can pull back and not have to commit that 20 million till a deal is reached and I believe it can be paid in installments. However, the reall question and what makes this unlikely isn't the posting money, but the actual contract money to get a deal done. Big market's have the edge. A small market team would have to go crazy with spending like the Reds did with Votto. The Yankees are dealing with the increase penalties if they go over 189 million threshold and it revolvs around Arod being supended which would make them a player for him.

 

I'm not saying the Brewers can't get him, but if they do they would have to commit CC Sabathia type money to him. I think they should bet on a great year from Ryan Braun in 2014-2015 then trade him and by doing this it would free up the money in 2016 for Tanaka and he can be the franchise player. The Brewers need an ace and this might be there e only opportunity to get one. I say go for it.

[bensheeps]

Brewers announce an Aoki bobblehead along with a Japanese heritage day and then trade Nori to the Royals.

Tanaka gets posted - problem solved.

 

Make it happen Mark.

[KCBrewerfan34]

His contract is going to go $125-$150 million, these teams can't help themselves.

[brewcrewdue80]

This is my guess. But comparing Grienkes deal 6/147 I feel is where Tanaka will fall. But 6/127 since the posting fee is $20mil.

Some feel Tanaka wants just a 4yr deal to reach FA again at 30. So he likely goes with a 5yr deal at 110mil making it 5/130 with posting.

 

 

You tell me how Milwaukee competes with that? How about the team that signs Tanaka loses their 1st rd pick?

It's just insane to look at Tanaka being signed for what will amount to just about any Small Market Team's highest paid player. He will make more than Braun next season! Just watch.

[PrinceFielderx1]

This is my guess. But comparing Grienkes deal 6/147 I feel is where Tanaka will fall. But 6/127 since the posting fee is $20mil.

Some feel Tanaka wants just a 4yr deal to reach FA again at 30. So he likely goes with a 5yr deal at 110mil making it 5/130 with posting.

 

 

You tell me how Milwaukee competes with that? How about the team that signs Tanaka loses their 1st rd pick?

It's just insane to look at Tanaka being signed for what will amount to just about any Small Market Team's highest paid player. He will make more than Braun next season! Just watch.

 

This deal makes sense for the Brewers if they eventually plan on trading Braun. With the increase money from MLB and new TV contract the Brewers can afford the first 2 years with Braun, but then would have to trade Braun after 1-2 years, which they can do and get 2-3 REALLY good players for him. If I was the Brewers I'be be serious players for Tanaka with the intention of Trading Ryan Braun.

 

Another option would be to trade Lohse and Ramirez for young top prospects and eat lot's of salary to get better players That alone saves 25 million and adds top young players making the minimum like a 3B man and 1B man. Then you keep both. Only on a 4-5 year deal for Tanaka. That would allow them to give Thornburg or Nelson a shot at the rotation where I think they will thrive.

[umphrey]

I think he'll get less than Darvish. Darvish was a better 'prospect' at the time he was posted. I would be shocked if NYY didn't 1up the 2nd highest bidder by $10M though.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think he'll get less than Darvish. Darvish was a better 'prospect' at the time he was posted. I would be shocked if NYY didn't 1up the 2nd highest bidder by $10M though.

 

Don't forget that Tanaka's cost will begin at 31.7million less than Darvish because of the 20mil limit posting fee.

So Darvish's 6/56mil contract was really 6/107.7mil.

 

I guess on level with Darvish would then be 6/87.7mil with the Grienke deal being compared at 6/127mil

 

Now with the 20mil max bid it's not just 1 team that will get to negotiate with Tanaka, so that too drives up his price. You're talking Tanaka being bid on by the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, Diamondbacks all discussing contract deals with Tanaka's agent. So a team isn't just negotiating to Tanaka's demands but having to negotiate a higher contract then what any of these deep pocket franchises care to offer.

 

And in the Cubs, Yankees, Angels position, they don't have a top 100 Pitching prospect in their pipelines should they lose out on Tanaka.

 

All indications are that ARod's suspension will be reduced a ton to nullified meaning the Yankees are already over the luxury tax for 2014. If that's going to be the case they'll jump on the bidding to I think Grienke's pay day 6/127 neighborhood. Eh, let's go 7/127.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I think he'll get less than Darvish. Darvish was a better 'prospect' at the time he was posted. I would be shocked if NYY didn't 1up the 2nd highest bidder by $10M though.

 

Don't forget that Tanaka's cost will begin at 31.7million less than Darvish because of the 20mil limit posting fee.

So Darvish's 6/56mil contract was really 6/107.7mil.

 

I guess on level with Darvish would then be 6/87.7mil with the Grienke deal being compared at 6/127mil

 

Now with the 20mil max bid it's not just 1 team that will get to negotiate with Tanaka, so that too drives up his price. You're talking Tanaka being bid on by the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, Diamondbacks all discussing contract deals with Tanaka's agent. So a team isn't just negotiating to Tanaka's demands but having to negotiate a higher contract then what any of these deep pocket franchises care to offer.

 

And in the Cubs, Yankees, Angels position, they don't have a top 100 Pitching prospect in their pipelines should they lose out on Tanaka.

 

All indications are that ARod's suspension will be reduced a ton to nullified meaning the Yankees are already over the luxury tax for 2014. If that's going to be the case they'll jump on the bidding to I think Grienke's pay day 6/127 neighborhood. Eh, let's go 7/127.

 

At only 18 million a year and him only being 25 the Brewers should go 8/140 17.5 million a year. That's better than 6/125 I thought would be needed. He'd never make more than Braun.

[trwi7]

And the Brewers are going to pay for this contract how?

[monty57]

Next offseason, with Weeks and Ramirez off the books, it might be a possibility to dream of a signing like this, but not now. Realistically, the Brewers are in a position where they are pretty much unable to compete on top free agents. Their TV money increase was something like $20MM/year, while teams are increasing their TV deals by well over $100MM/year. The Brewers can't play in this arena.

 

I've heard some media basically penciling Tanaka into the Yankee rotation, and they're probably the odds-on favorites, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cubs jump in on this. They're heavy on young hitting prospects, but light on pitching, while they have deep pockets and only $54MM in guaranteed contracts in 2014 and $31MM in 2015. It might be a little too early in their cycle, but with Tanaka only being 25 and being around for 4-5 years, it might make sense.

 

A west coast team makes tons of sense with their Japanese fan-base, but I don't think it'll be Seattle, as they've blown their wad on offense, and already have young pitching. However, nothing would surprise me when it comes to the L.A. teams spending money, so either of them should be in the discussion for any big money free agent signing.

[Roderick]

A west coast team makes tons of sense with their Japanese fan-base, but I don't think it'll be Seattle, as they've blown their wad on offense, and already have young pitching. However, nothing would surprise me when it comes to the L.A. teams spending money, so either of them should be in the discussion for any big money free agent signing.

 

If there would be enough additional income from adding a Japanese player that it made sense, the Mariners could always trade a young pitcher. That is never a problem. They could even package some overpaid player to get rid of at the same time to help on the cost side.

 

I have no idea how much new revenue he would bring if any.

[clancyphile]

With the need to recover, and given his history... why not roll the dice now?

 

The posting fee is reasonable, and if you add him, it is not like it costs a draft pick. Weeks and Ramirez come off the books after this season, so why not go for Tanaka now? Perhaps getting him could open the option to put Lohse or Gallardo on the block for prospects...

[PrinceFielderx1]

And the Brewers are going to pay for this contract how?

 

An extra 26 million in revenue this year and we are only at 83 million,and we've as high as what close to 100 million? You get the point.

[PrinceFielderx1]

With the need to recover, and given his history... why not roll the dice now?

 

The posting fee is reasonable, and if you add him, it is not like it costs a draft pick. Weeks and Ramirez come off the books after this season, so why not go for Tanaka now? Perhaps getting him could open the option to put Lohse or Gallardo on the block for prospects...

 

Agree. Put Lohse on the block.

[fondybrewfan]

I am sure they could post the $20 Million fee and make some kind of offer; but the odds of actually signing Tanaka seem like next to nothing. All the high payroll teams will certainly be bidding and would Tanaka really sign with MIL? That is probably questionable in and of itself.

 

If the Crew wanted to add another starter it might be Ubaldo. I don't think Melvin is going to be in the FA SP market at all; but Ubaldo is a lot more likely than Tanaka.

[jerichoholicninja]

No small market should be signing Tanaka. There is way too much risk to be tying that amount of money into a player like him. He's going to be paid like a bonafide ace without having even thrown an MLB pitch. He's probably going to have a solid career but the odds of him performing to his contract are going to be quite small. The Yankees and Dodgers can afford to pay a #3 or #4 like a #1 but small market teams can't.

[brewcrewdue80]

With the need to recover, and given his history... why not roll the dice now?

 

The posting fee is reasonable, and if you add him, it is not like it costs a draft pick. Weeks and Ramirez come off the books after this season, so why not go for Tanaka now? Perhaps getting him could open the option to put Lohse or Gallardo on the block for prospects...

 

Agree. Put Lohse on the block.

 

The entire reasoning in everyone's mind by agreeing to pay Tanaka 15mil+ is because he can be the addition to send your team in to serious Playoff contention/WS hopes. Overpaying because he's young for a FA.

 

You don't add Tanaka to get rid of Lohse or Gallardo. You're adding Tanaka because with Lohse/Gallardo/Peralta He becomes your #2-4 pitcher that plays with Lohse/Gallardo the next 2seasons and gets you in to the Playoffs and believing beyond the first round of it.

 

I don't see Milwaukee doing that at all.

 

At only 18 million a year and him only being 25 the Brewers should go 8/140 17.5 million a year. That's better than 6/125 I thought would be needed. He'd never make more than Braun.

 

Braun is set to make 10mil this year 12mil next year. There is zero chance you can sign Tanaka for 8/140 pay him less than or equal to 10/12 the next 2 years and for the remaining money to then not exceed Braun's Annual Pay the remaining 6years.

 

So indeed, Tanaka will make more than Braun, I just envision it being more than Braun this year and next year before settling in slightly below Braun. That's why I see this as insanity. A person who's never thrown a ML pitch, gone through the minors, is set to make more this year than a MVP with 7years experience being MVP-like.

 

I just have this thought, why don't American kids just move to Japan and take their talents there for 2-4years after High School and let that Japanese club then post them? Because rather than now make 500k the next 3years, they will be seeing 7+mil come their way via a Free Agent contract? I'm waiting for someone to expose this loophole this way at some point. Just look at the number of players who've recently signed with Asian ballclubs, they are making more money there while rebuilding on their reputation to some day get a contract to come back. If it's working for ballplayers in their late 20s why not just seek it out in your late teens?

[umphrey]

If he's making less than $20M/year he will be extremely tradable in 2 years anyways