Brewers Pitchers Just Don't Walk Anybody

[rluzinski]

I'm confident that, when the games start to actually count, walks are not going to be an issue.

[endaround]

Sheets had 5 walks in 13 spring innings versus 11 in 106 innings last year. Either he's a different pitcher or he has been ignoring his curve and working on his change up.

[Fatter than Joey]

A strikeout results in an out 99.9% of the time, a ball in play about 70%. I know which one I prefer.

 

A walk results in an out 0% of the time.

 

I'd rather see pitchers hit their spots and get groundouts/singles than K's/BB's.

 

BBs are very tolerable if you have a pitcher like Nolan Ryan that can gun down the next three batters w/o breaking a sweat, but with a pitcher like Doug Davis, the bases loaded 2b or the 3 run HR seem to follow the BBs more tham anything else.

 

All pitchers are susceptible to the big inning. When Doug Davis's Ks went up, it seemed to me that his BBs went up as well, along with his pitch count, and inability to "eat innings". Obviously a Ben Sheets is different, as he is able to punch batters out.

[endaround]

This thing "seems" to be in your head. Davis's K rate went up until last year as did his innings pitched. Its his decrease in K's with his increased walk rate that did him in in 2006.

[rluzinski]

I swear, people must think a BB is worse than a base hit on a ball in play. It's mostly because a base on balls is the opposite of entertaining. A pitcher who never walked anyone and never struck out anyone would probably not be a good pitcher (I'll look into it a bit and see if my gut feeling can be supprted by numbers).

 

On average, groundball pitchers do not hold an automatic advantage over flyball pitchers anyway. Flyballs are converted into outs more often than groundballs but have a higher run value than a groundball. It really comes down to the individual pitcher and his specific skill set.

[UWRyan428]

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A walk results in an out 0% of the time.

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Unless, of course, you have your economics degree from Duke U., go by the same moniker as the ace of Cleveland, and have an affinity for hot tubs.

[RightFieldCoder]

I'll look into it a bit and see if my gut feeling can be supprted by numbers

 

I am shocked. I never thought I'd hear Russ say something about his gut before checking the numbers. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

 

I think people believe giving up a walk is as bad as giving up a hit because you always hear "a walk is as good as a hit" and moneyball emphasis on walks. A little truer analagy is that a walk is nearly as good as a hit. A walk doesn't move all the baserunners over. Nor does it allow baserunners to take two bases. Nor can the defence commit an error and allow extra bases. However, there is always the chance of a baserunning error to allow an out on the play.

 

My gut says there aren't going to be many low K/low BB guys. If they have the command to not walk many batters, they can probably have enough command to get a decent K rate. Inversely, if they don't have the command to get the K, they probably miss the zone a lot and give up BB.

[Fatter than Joey]

I swear, people must think a BB is worse than a base hit on a ball in play.

 

Not me. Anymore than I think a K is better than a groundout.

 

When Davis's K rate went up from 2004 to 2005 -- he also got hit much harder. He gave up almost 2x as many HRs. If you look at Davis, his BBs, Runs, ERA, OPS, etc, have all risen each year since 2004. The Ks was about the only positive thing that went up (from 2004, to 2005).

 

I am all for walks, to certain players, however, I think rather than trying to K a 7th-9th batter, letting that guy hit the ball is probably better than walking them. If you look at Davis who he walks, there is almost an even distribution (walking the 7th hitter at a higher rate than the 4th and 3rd).

 

All in all -- Walks don't bother me, if the pitcher has the stuff to blow away the next batters, how ever, I think for most pitchers, I like the pitch to contact approach.

 

I would trade less BBs more groundouts at the expense of more Ks and more pitches thrown (for non-power pitchers)

[endaround]

But Davis had a great 2004. And his K rate went up from his overall career in 2004. In 2003 his K/9 was 5.10. In 2004 it was 7.21. A huge jump. and it made him a much better pitcher. So to say that the increased K rate in 2005 compared to 2004 made him worse off means ignoring his entire previous career. And he pitched more innings in 2005 than he did in 2004 so the idea that he didn't go any further in games is wrong.

 

And Davis has the stuff to get guys to swing and miss when he's on. He may have a injury or he may have lost a little velocity which can make a huge difference when you just touch 90 or he had a bad year. All that doesn't mean that having him pitch to contact will make him better.

[rluzinski]

When Davis's K rate went up from 2004 to 2005 -- he also got hit much harder. He gave up almost 2x as many HRs.

 

Pitcher HR rates jump all over the place from year to year, so it's very difficult to extract much from them.

[Fatter than Joey]

So to say that the increased K rate in 2005 compared to 2004 made him worse off means ignoring his entire previous career. And he pitched more innings in 2005 than he did in 2004 so the idea that he didn't go any further in games is wrong.

 

I would never say his increased K rate made him worse. The increased K rate is a result of his different "approach" in 2005 versus 2004. He struck out more batters, but he gave up nearly, 2x as many HRs, he gave up more Runs, SLG, BA, OPS, etc. This trend continued into 2006. I am not sure if it was a mechinical difference, or the way he approached batters.

 

2004 was Davis's career year. He had a great year. 2005 got worse, as did 2006, and I am guessing 2007.

 

or he had a bad year.

 

His stats seem to point that 2004 was the abnormality not pre- or post-2004.

 

All that doesn't mean that having him pitch to contact will make him better.

 

Sure - I am speaking in generalities using Davis as an example -- however, when your walks are distributed evenly over the lineup, it probably speaks to some additional ERs that other pitchers won;t have.

 

In my opinion, I think Davis's days as a strikeout pitcher are forever gone, and he will need to learn how to get batters out other than striking them out, otherwise he will get creamed in ARI.

[Fatter than Joey]

Pitcher HR rates jump all over the place from year to year, so it's very difficult to extract much from them.

 

So did Davis's K rate as well -- If you are going to say that his increased K rate is a good thing -- which is OK with me -- then you need to look at the other things that bumped as well.

 

I won't argue with the flucuation of HR rates. However if you are going to say -- "Wow, Pitcher X's K rate went from 5 to 7" in a given year, then you need to look at the HR rate, SLG, and what happened on the other end of the coin, and not just conclude that the pitcher just struck out more batters, w/o some give and take in the other aspects of their stats.

[homer]

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A pitcher who never walked anyone and never struck out anyone would probably not be a good pitcher (I'll look into it a bit and see if my gut feeling can be supprted by numbers).

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See Silva, Carlos - circa 2004 - 2005.

 

147 Ks, 44 BB in roughly 391 innings.

[Fatter than Joey]

Bob Tewksbury -- almost won the Cy Young in 1992

 

ERA 2.16 Ks 90 BB 20 IP 233--

 

He was like this his whole career.

[rluzinski]

So did Davis's K rate as well -- If you are going to say that his increased K rate is a good thing -- which is OK with me -- then you need to look at the other things that bumped as well.

 

K rates for a pitcher are more reproducible. There are enough of them that a change in K rate from year to year can mean something. With so few HRs in a year, they bounce around a lot. Not saying it means nothing but it's weak statistical evidence.

[rluzinski]

147 Ks, 44 BB in roughly 391 innings.

 

What I was getting at was a mythical pitcher than never recorded a single strikeout or gave up a single walk. Silva is about as close as you'll find and he has managed to be about league average. What I'm not sure about is whether Silva would have been better off getting no Ks or BBs. Is there somewhere where I can see how mnay singles, doubles, etc... he's given up over his career?

[endaround]

Russ you're going to run into a huge selection bias problem. Very few pitchers who have bead strike out rates have enough pure stuff to last long in the major leagues. Those that do are going to be knuckleball type pitchers which means they by definition are outliers.

[rluzinski]

Well, I wasn't considering knuckleballers. They are freaks and don't deserve to be studied. And I knew better than to just assume a league average run value for balls in play, since guys who can't strike people out must have some other angle working for them.

 

I was just going to find Silva's average run value of his balls in play, use his career BABIP and find out if he'd be better off allowing no Ks or BBs. Purely theoretical of course (a pitcher who never walks or Ks a guy would really have to work hard to get a batter to make contact) but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.

[djoctagone]

a trend noticed in spring training is a trend noticed after three weeks in april.

 

the brewers' 2.75 walks issued per 9 innings ratio is currently second best in the league (reds are tops with 2.27).

 

doug davis is 5.73 per 9. claudio vargas is 1.38 per 9.

 

i'm really glad that trade happened.

[PKBadger]

Last night didn't help that average too much (I was pretty much ready to throw a brick through my TV) but good to see.

[djoctagone]

on jsonline today:

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Entering play Thursday, three of the Brewers' starting pitchers ranked in the top six in the National League in fewest walks per nine innings. A look at the top six:

 

Pitcher, team No.

Greg Maddux, San Diego 1.2

Ted Lilly, Chicago 1.4

Matt Belisle, Cincinnati 1.4

Dave Bush, Milwaukee 1.5

Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee 1.5

Ben Sheets, Milwaukee 1.5

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[pogokat]

this is unreal for jeff suppan...i know its unlikely that he's turned the corner considering his, what, 1200 major league innings, but who would have thought he'd be walking no one?

 

i praise doug melvin everyday for spening money on soup instead of schmidt, weaver, or meche...

[djoctagone]

nice to see the pitching staff's remained consistent in not issuing too many free passes.

 

the reds are still best in the league with 2.74 walks issued per 9, but the brewers are right behind them with 2.79.

 

capuano's performance last night was especially encouraging considering his recent walk rate.

[djoctagone]

brewers have issued the fewest walks in the league with only 120 over 44 games.

 

their 2.74 walks issued per 9 is second only to san diego's 2.67.

[djoctagone]

they've fallen a bit, but still are third in the league with 2.85 walks issued per 9 innings.