Milwaukee Bucks Thread 2009–2010 (part 2)

[Roscoe Chill]

It's the mid level exception. A lot of overreaction on this thread.

[Gobias Industries]

This deal also really handcuffs the Bucks ability to sign a backup pg other than luke ridnour. We don't have the cap room.

 

We do hold bird rights on Ridnour, so we might as well lock him up to a 5 yr deal as well. 5/25 should be good for Hammond.

[gobrew23]

I wouldn't worry about his defense. With Skiles coaching, he'll realize real quick that he is going to have to bust his tail on D or he won't be playing as many minutes as he'd like. Bogut, Jennings and Salmons are the leaders on the team and I think they will make sure everyone else realizes the importance of their team concept...defense.

[Corn Trader]

Im going to go out on a limb and say that the back up point guard we are going to end up with will either be Ridnour or whatever Michael Redd's expiring contract turns into. I can't imagine it is in the plans for him to be on the team come Halloween

[Outlander]

I hope they don't end up trading Redd as it would be nice to have some cap space next year after all of the signings and trades that have taken place this year.

[Corn Trader]

Even if you hate Drew Gooden, he's an absolute bargain compared to 5 years 34 million for Amir Johnson

[RockCoCougars]

I wanted Gooden last year at this time. I think he is very serviceable. He's got a decent midrange jumper (a la Joe Smith) and can be a junkyard dog type around the basket with the offensive rebounds. I've never understood why he's moved around so much, because every time I see him play, he seems to make a difference on the court. Three years at that price (if the thing about the option years is true) isn't bad at all. As for Salmons, I'm not a big fan of a five year deal, but the numbers being kicked around seem fair.... I'll wait until it is confirmed. If Salmons is brought back the only issue would be a backup PG, and hopefully Herb will open up his wallet one more time for Ridnour. This is starting to look like a pretty deep squad. Let's hope that Bogut and Jennings continue to develop, and the next few years should be a lot of fun.

[TooLiveBrew]

He's got a decent midrange jumper (a la Joe Smith)

 

This is a much better comparison, imo, than the Tim Thomas comp. mentioned earlier.

[homer]

Seems like the consensus at Real GM is that this is a bad deal.

 

 

That gives me hope that it's going to work out well for the Bucks.

[ILuvDaBush]

I like the Gooden deal more than the expected Salmons deal. Gooden should flourish next to Bogut. Moreover, this allows Larry Sanders to learn behind two very skilled big men. Also, as has been mentioned, this allows us to package one of our young 4's with Redd's deal to acquire something useful in the near future (though I don't know if I agree Devin Harris would be the best use of said package). The Salmons deal just seems like payment for last season. I know it has been said ad nauseum but Salmons has soured more than a couple coaches. That being said (h/t Larry David), I definitely am excited about our newfound depth.

[thablingster]

Now that I decided to do my homework on this one, Joe Smith is probably a better comparison than Tim Thomas. Gooden and Smith's career statistics are fairly similar. In the grand scheme of things it is nice to see the Bucks making positive moves instead of salary dumps.

 

Gooden averages 11.9 PPG and 7.9 RPG over an average of 27.7 MPG. Those are pretty solid statistics. If the Bucks play Gooden around 30 minutes/game as is his average, that still gives them plenty of time to rotate in other guys.

[jjfanec]

I would have liked for both the Gooden and Salmons (if it really is done) deals to only be 3 years, but I really like how the roster looks for next year. Of the 5 starters 4 are guys who are scoring threats and one is a garbage guy there to get offensive rebounds. Jennings, Salmons, Maggette, and Bogut each can hit 20 on a given night. Add into that our depth with Delfino, the Turkish guys whose name I cannot spell, Sanders, CDR, a back up point guard they will still sign, Redd (or whatever he is traded for), and maybe one of the other rookies like Hobson or Tiny. That is a solid lineup.

[yount19.u]

Here is Hollinger's take at ESPN: http://insider.espn.go.co...ge=freeagentmoves-100701

 

I feel much better about the deal after reading his breakdown of Gooden. Salmons at 5 years is probably a stretch, but it should still help the Bucks in the near future. And unless Ridnour takes a discount, I think the Bucks are better off letting him walk and picking up a free agent back up on a one or two year deal. They can't afford to have too many long term deals on the books. Especially with aging back ups like Ridnour who just came off a career (maybe a fluke?) year.

 

If Cleveland and Chicago lose out on the Lebron sweepstakes, I think the Bucks have quietly built a front runner in the Central for the next few years.

[Paulus88]

The thing is if they don't sign Ridnour they can't really sign anyone anyone good to back up Jennings. They used up all their cap space on Gooden.

 

I think the stats show that Gooden and Smith are good comps but Smith is tons better defensively. As good as Skiles is I'm not sure you can coach up team defense and bball IQ, the two things Gooden lacks and the reason he's moved around so much. I fear the Bucks are committing too much to a guy that is a knucklehead right now and isn't going to get any better.

[Gobias Industries]

Seems like the consensus at Real GM is that this is a bad deal.

 

 

That gives me hope that it's going to work out well for the Bucks.

Gooden adds more talent to the roster (he's better than Gadz), but it's a hideous deal anyway you look at it. 5 years is what most superstars get. It's too long. Not too mention he's a net negative on the court. But maybe forehead can get thru to him and he starts D'in it up. Who knows?

 

Gooden's camp said they were "blown away" by the offer. Very rare to hear that.

 

I'm not ready to blindly follow every move hammond makes. Seems like there is a lot of that going on around here. Yes, he was GM of the year last year. But if there was a razzie type award for worst GM, he would of been the runaway winner the season before. Jury is definitely still out.

[yoshii8]

Seems like the consensus at Real GM is that this is a bad deal.

 

 

That gives me hope that it's going to work out well for the Bucks.

Nice, I agree.

 

So far I like everybody the Bucks have acquired this off-season, and I think we'll have a very deep roster next season. It'll be interesting to see how Drew Gooden fits in w/ the Bucks, fans seem to either love him or hate him. I keep hearing contrasting reports on the structure of the contracts, so I'll wait to comment until I find out for sure what they are.

 

I still hope Ridnour is resigned, and I'd love to have Kurt Thomas around the team in some capacity, maybe as a player/coach.

 

 

 

 

[greeg35]

But if there was a razzie type award for worst GM, he would of been the runaway winner the season before. Jury is definitely still out.

That seems pretty unfair considering most of what he was doing was trying to undo damage from the previous GM, and trying to set himself up for what he's doing now. The Gooden and Salmons deals are lengthy, especially for guys that talent and age, and I don't need to go into how much I dislike Gooden as a player anymore; but we will be a deep, talented team next year any way you slice it and that's a far cry from where we were when Hammond took over.

[gobrew23]

I'm not ready to blindly follow every move hammond makes. Seems like there is a lot of that going on around here. Yes, he was GM of the year last year. But if there was a razzie type award for worst GM, he would of been the runaway winner the season before. Jury is definitely still out.

Why would he have been a runaway "razzie" award winner the year before? The Bucks were in a terrible spot financially and he did a remarkable job of putting us in a position to be able to afford the players/contracts we currently have. Yeah, he missed on 1st round pick Joe Alexander, but he found a gem in the 2nd with LRMAM. He also signed Bogut to a contract extension that offseason, which is working out rather well.

 

 

[Gobias Industries]

Had the opportunity to unload M Redd twice. Once was when he was even out with the ACL tear. He didn't want to give up Sessions in the deal. (who he then let walk for nothing)

 

Could of unloaded RJ for Raef Lafrentz's Insurance covered expiring. Decided to keep him for the entire season. Did somewhat make up for his mistake by unloading RJ in the offseason.

 

As you said JA #8 overall. One of the biggest draft busts of the decade. Nearly every player picked after him is better.

 

2 year contracts to scrub journeyman Malik Allen and Francisco Elson. After yesterday, he now has a history on going too long on FA deals.

 

Signed Salim Stoudemire towards the end of a lost season, basically lighting his owners money on fire.

 

Turned down Sessions for Conley and Lakers 2010 first round pick. There is our backup pg if he sells Herb on that deal.

 

Let Sessions and CV walk for no compensation. Both got nice, multi year deals. Clearly had value. The Knicks almost traded Gallinari and Lee for Sessions. That's how much value he had to some teams.

[trwi7]

For those in favor of the Gooden signing, I suggest you read this.

 

09/10 Clippers: With Gooden 5-19 .208% Without 24-34, .414%
09/10 Mavs: With Gooden 28-18 .609% Without 27-9 .750%
08/09 Spurs: With Gooden 9-10 .474% Without 45-18 .714%
08/09 Bulls: With Gooden 15-16 .484% Without 26-25 .510%
07/08 Bulls With Gooden 6-12 .333% Without 27-37 .422%
07/08 Cavs With Gooden 28-23 .549% Without 17-14 .548%
02/03 Grizzlies With Gooden 16-35 .314% Without 12-19 .387

Overall: With Gooden: 107-133 .446% Without 178-156 .533

So over 4 of Gooden's 8 seasons his team has seen fit to trade him at the deadline and each time the team with Gooden on their roster has been worse than without him, without exception. Could be a fluke each time right? Let's look at individual numbers.

Is far from a perfect tool especially in isolation over a single season We've seen good players trapped in a "Bomb Squad" and dragged down as a result. (Larry K reference FTW!) So let's be fair and look over Gooden's entire career.

Net (This is a player's performance in relation to his teammates playing the same position)
Memphis 02/03: 51 games -3.8 points
Orlando 02/03 19 games +3.6
Orlando 03/04 79 games -8.4
Cleveland 04/05 82 games +3.8
Cleveland 05/06 79 games -4.4
Cleveland 06/07 80 games -8.5
Cleveland 07/08 51 games -1.5
Chicago 07/08 18 games -3.5
Chicago 08/09 31 games -6.6
Spurs 08/09 19 games -8.4
Dallas 09/10 46 games -10.5
Clipppers 09/10 24 games -6.2

In summary Gooden has watched his bench replacement outperform him for 83% of his career and every time in every season since the year before Bogut was drafted. (Gooden not being the worst PF or later C in his team bolded for convenience.) I've also put the times where Gooden has played mostly as a C in italics as I've seen a few people claim he's good as a backup C.

How about Gooden's defense? Is he really as dumb as he looks on D? Let's look at Gooden's defensive

Memphis 02/03: +.7 (The plus sign in this case is sadly not a good thing)
Orlando 02/03 +1.3
Orlando 03/04 +6.6
Cleveland 04/05 +.7
Cleveland 05/06 +.7
Cleveland 06/07 +6.4
Cleveland 07/08 +1.5
Chicago 07/08 +5.2*
Chicago 08/09 -.7
Spurs 08/09 +1.9
Dallas 09/10 +5.2
Clipppers 09/10 +7.7

Yep that's right Drew Gooden has been better than his peers defensively for only one 31 game stint out of 9 teams and 580 NBA games.

Offensive efficiency shows that Gooden has only been a net positive in 4 of the previous 12 shown stints.

Despite Gooden's encouraging individual rebounding rate he has broken even (Obviously this is a rough measure at this point) as far as his team's rebounding rate while he's been on the floor. 6/12 times his team has outrebounded the opposition.

Basically Drew Gooden is mediocre at his 'strengths' and horrible at his weaknesses and almost always a worse proposition than any other guy playing his position on his team. His teams play better before/after he joins and always improves while he's waving towels. Hakim Warrick version 2 right down to the complete and entirely predictable NBA history of incompetence. Eh... I always sucked at conclusions. Go team.

[gobrew23]

Had the opportunity to unload M Redd twice. Once was when he was even out with the ACL tear. He didn't want to give up Sessions in the deal. (who he then let walk for nothing)

And??? Who says we were being offered anything that would have ended up benefiting the team. Redd's contract is currently an asset as some team is going to want that expiring contract at some point.

Could of unloaded RJ for Raef Lafrentz's Insurance covered expiring. Decided to keep him for the entire season. Did somewhat make up for his mistake by unloading RJ in the offseason.

As you said, we were going to get pretty much nothing for him then and we pretty much got nothing for him later on. I don't have a problem with how he handled this.

As you said JA #8 overall. One of the biggest draft busts of the decade. Nearly every player picked after him is better.

Biggest busts of the decade?!? We are talking about the 8th overall pick, not blowing a top 3 pick. There are plently of draft picks every single season that don't turn out for teams. And as I mentioned earlier, he picked up LRMAM in the 2nd round who has had better production than some of those players drafted shortly after Alexander's spot. Also, Alexander was part of the trade that brought Salmons to Milwaukee so he did prove to be somewhat useful.

2 year contracts to scrub journeyman Malik Allen and Francisco Elson. After yesterday, he now has a history on going too long on FA deals.

Yeah, I'm also upset about the contracts to Malik Allen and Francisco Elson. These contracts have been dragging down the franchise for the last two years.

Signed Salim Stoudemire towards the end of a lost season, basically lighting his owners money on fire.

This is seriously one of your bullet-point complaints? They signed him with 5 games left that season. The plan was to get him into their summer program right away to see if we would offer them anything for the following season. I'm sure a few thousand dollars really burned a hole in his pocket.

Turned down Sessions for Conley and Lakers 2010 first round pick. There is our backup pg if he sells Herb on that deal.

Do you have a source to confirm this? Either way, I liked Sessions at the time and probably wouldn't have been happy with the trade. I was hoping we were going to keep Sessions over Ridnour for last season too. But thankfully I'm not the GM because Ridnour and Jennings worked out pretty well last year.

Let Sessions and CV walk for no compensation. Both got nice, multi year deals. Clearly had value. The Knicks almost traded Gallinari and Lee for Sessions. That's how much value he had to some teams.

You're right they walked for nothing because they were offered big contracts that weren't worth matching. I don't think the absence of Sessions or CV hurt the team this season. In fact, I'm sure it helped.

[greeg35]

Thanks for the analysis Tri...glad to know there are some numbers that back up what my eyes tell me about Gooden. Boo. Hopefully I'm wrong, Skiles works his magic, whatever because I love the rest of this team.

[PrestigeWorldwide]

Gobias Industries wrote:

The Knicks almost traded Gallinari and Lee for Sessions. That's how much value he had to some teams.

You make some good points and obviously follow the Bucks and the NBA closer than I do. However, saying the Knicks "almost" made a trade, even if you could prove it, does nothing to illustrate someone's value. What does it even mean, that the Bucks made the offer, and because the Knicks didn't reject it immediately, they "almost" made the trade?

 

The fact that Sessions got his deal from a horrible team/GM that had just drafted two PGs says a whole lot more about his value at the time.

[Paulus88]

Thanks trwi (or whoever intiially compiled that), that supports my view of Gooden. His stats look nice on paper but do you really want him on your team? I guess it's a talent upgrade. Either way I hope that Ersan and Sanders can eat into his playing time as the year progresses.

 

As far as Hammond, I didn't like his moves (and lack of moves) the first year to not shed salary when the Jefferson thing didn't work. But it all seemed to work out last year and he achieved financial flexibility, got Salmons, established a team identity, had some wiggle room and Redd's expiring going forward. Now he spent it all and has no finanicial flexibility and his money is tied long term to non-star 30 year olds (a lot like two years ago, allbeit now with far superior youth). Quite a roller coaster.

[trwi7]

And??? Who says we were being offered anything that would have ended up benefiting the team. Redd's contract is currently an asset as some team is going to want that expiring contract at some point.

 

Redd's contract is currently an asset because he got hurt. And his contract is so big, that it makes it difficult to match salary. It's not as big of an asset as you think.

 

Biggest busts of the decade?!? We are talking about the 8th overall pick, not blowing a top 3 pick.

 

He's the second player in NBA history to have his first team option on his rookie contract declined. LOL for not thinking that's not one of the biggest busts of the decade.

 

And as I mentioned earlier, he picked up LRMAM in the 2nd round who has had better production than some of those players drafted shortly after Alexander's spot.

 

Nailing a lottery pick >>>>>>>>>>>>>> than nailing a 2nd rounder. The Bucks for the most part have been blowing lottery picks and nailing 2nd rounders for the last two decades and it's gotten them where exactly?

 

Also, Alexander was part of the trade that brought Salmons to Milwaukee so he did prove to be somewhat useful.

 

Horrible logic.

 

1. Alexander was so bad that he had his first team option declined making him an expiring.

 

2. Any expiring contracts we had would've done the trick for Salmons. It wasn't some special talent that he had that made the Bulls want him.

 

Yeah, I'm also upset about the contracts to Malik Allen and Francisco Elson. These contracts have been dragging down the franchise for the last two years.

 

Spending like that adds up. Would you rather have $4.7 million or end of bench scrubs? I think I'll take the money.

 

Same in regards to Stoudemire. Sure, it was "only" $100,000 or so, but why even sign him in the first place? To maybe be the 15th man on the roster?

 

Do you have a source to confirm this?

 

http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2009/jan/15/deal-or-no-deal/

 

You're right they walked for nothing because they were offered big contracts that weren't worth matching.

 

You serious? Sessions got a 4 year $16,444,586 contract. We paid Ridnour $6.5 million to be the backup next year. Sessions is going to be making less than $4 million next year. That's perfectly fine for a good, young backup PG. We're either going to be paying our backup PG around that much or even more or we're going to be paying a much, much worse PG less than that to be the backup.

 

CV, I understand why they didn't match that, but then Hammond goes out and gives a CV type contract ($5.7 million less total, same amount of years) to CV's big brother.