Milwaukee Bucks Thread 2008–2009 (part 2)

[homer]

Hindsight is 20/20 on every draft.

 

For Bogut, the overwhelming consensus was that pick would be either Bogut or Marvin Williams. Yes, in retrospect they should have taken Paul but I can't blame a team for taking Bogut there. It's not like he was some reach at #1.

[olliegjw]

You can get two of those three for $14M, but not all three.

 

Sessions - $5.8 million

Villanueva - $5 million

Ilyasova - $3.5 million

 

That's $14.3 million, Jefferson makes $14.2 million next year. That's the maximum Sessions can make next year, Villanueva would probably accept the qualifying offer and Ilyasova probably wouldn't get $3.5 million either. So, you could likely get those three for less than what Jefferson makes next year.

Who cares? Those three can be good role players, but they are a dime a dozen in this league. They won't do much good without a superstar, and the Bucks have nothing close to that right now. The whole team needs to be dismantled for youth and draft picks. These filler material players can be acquired at any time.

[trwi7]

Who cares? Those three can be good role players, but they are a dime a dozen in this league. They won't do much good without a superstar, and the Bucks have nothing close to that right now. The whole team needs to be dismantled for youth and draft picks. These filler material players can be acquired at any time.

So would you rather have three role players at $14 million or one at $14 million? I'd rather have three personally, especially when Sessions can become much more than a role player.

[olliegjw]

Who cares? Those three can be good role players, but they are a dime a dozen in this league. They won't do much good without a superstar, and the Bucks have nothing close to that right now. The whole team needs to be dismantled for youth and draft picks. These filler material players can be acquired at any time.

So would you rather have three role players at $14 million or one at $14 million? I'd rather have three personally, especially when Sessions can become much more than a role player.

I am saying it makes absolutely no difference with this team. They won't win a championship either way. You need a superstar to win a championship. The only way to do that is to rebuild through the draft, and hope you get the right pick at the right time.

[JJHardy7]

Paying $14 million combined next year to Sessions, Villanueva and Ilyasova is better than paying that to Jefferson.

 

Again, the Bucks will have to pay more than that to keep those guys unless other teams don't have cap room. Yea re-sign this guy and this guy...this is somewhat similar to the Redd situation. If money was level, Redd would've been gone. He'd be a Cav. The same will most likely go for Sessions and CV. I highly, highly doubt they'll sign in Milwaukee if another city is offering more money. The Bucks will have to pay more than most teams to keep those guys. A guy like Jefferson never comes to Milwaukee either unless he's traded. You're also forgetting that we did dump salary to get RJ. Simmons has another year on his contract...so that would mean the mistake was paying a guy more than he was worth to come to Milwaukee aka Bobby Simmons. I think there is a theme here.

 

I'd rather have Joakim Noah, Brandan Wright or Rodney Stuckey over Yi (fully aware he's not with the Bucks anymore.)

 

I think it's too early to tell on that one. Noah is not anything other than a role player and Wright was in the NBDL his rookie year. Stuckey was not a real option...no other team had him on their radar that high. You can take any draft and say 'hey how did Redd or Luc last that long? Those GMs are all dumb'. That's just no true though. Yi was taken where many experts had him (in that range or so). The Bucks made a mistake by taking a guy that didn't want to play in Milwaukee...again I think there is a theme here.

 

 

I'd rather have Chris Paul or Deron Williams over Andrew Bogut.

 

Not when you had Ford and Mo. Bogut was the right pick at the time. Was he the best player looking at it now? No, but if he develops and the Bucks have a big guy like him for years it will be hard to call it a bad pick.

 

I would've rather had David West or Josh Howard over T.J. Ford.

 

I disagree here. At the time, the Bucks needed a PG and Ford was pretty darn good until he had the neck injury. I wish we would've known he had kneck problems when we drafted him. Ford turned into CV. Can't really argue that pick either.

 

I would rather have Tayshaun Prince or Carlos Boozer over Marcus Haislip.

 

This was a terrible pick.

 

But drafting busts isn't even the biggest problem for the Bucks. It's not having many 1st round picks. In the last 10 drafts, the Bucks have only had six 1st round picks. For a team that doesn't have free agency as an option you absolutely need to keep draft picks and then draft well with them. Not only do we not draft well when we have them, we also don't have very many of them.

 

You are in a way making my point. Free agents don't want to come to Milwaukee unless they're signing minimum type deals. They don't. So you draft and trade. Sometimes you trade picks. I'm not saying every move was smart. There were some bad moves. I am saying that you either spend a lot of $$$ and have posts of people whining about an Olympian and all-star being paid too much or need to have great drafts and trades and then figure out when is the best time to trade a young player...or you pay him $$$ and have people whine about it.

[Gobias Industries]

Hindsight is 20/20 on every draft.

 

For Bogut, the overwhelming consensus was that pick would be either Bogut or Marvin Williams. Yes, in retrospect they should have taken Paul but I can't blame a team for taking Bogut there. It's not like he was some reach at #1.

Yeah, Paul wasn't even an option because of our point guard situation, but he should have been if you're strictly drafting BPA. The guy dominated as a Sophmore in college in the ACC, and it was very clear he was gonna be a very good pro. I love Bogut, but we still whiffed on that pick. (Not as bad as Atlanta though) Chris Paul is on track to be the best PG of all-time, and we had a chance to take him. Luke Ridnour is currently our starting PG instead of an all-time great.

[sargennm]

Yeah, Paul wasn't even an option because of our point guard situation, but he should have been if you're strictly drafting BPA. The guy dominated as a Sophmore in college in the ACC, and it was very clear he was gonna be a very good pro. I love Bogut, but we still whiffed on that pick. (Not as bad as Atlanta though) Chris Paul is on track to be the best PG of all-time, and we had a chance to take him. Luke Ridnour is currently our starting PG instead of an all-time great.

I would have loved if the Bucks would have traded Ford or Mo away and taken Paul instead, but to say that he was the BPA at the time is kind of misleading. Very few people were advocating Paul as a potential Top 2 pick outside of maybe Bill Simmons. It wasn't clear to most that he was going to be a great player, many doubted him because of his size (listed a 6-foot, but c'mon).

 

I remember watching how dominating he was a Wake as well and that's why I like him as the Bucks pick. It reminds be a lot of the way I feel about Ty Lawson, not neccesairyly in the style of play, but the way he seemed to be the standout player in the NCAA tournament.

[Diskono]

Umm, easily re-sign Sessions, Villanueva and Ilyasova with Jefferson's $14 million salary gone? Villanueva who could probably be had for his qualifying offer of 1 year $4.6 million. Paying $14 million combined next year to Sessions, Villanueva and Ilyasova is better than paying that to Jefferson.

 

Thank you for finally saying what you would do with the cap room, instead of saying "dump their contracts". But CV for one year at $4.6M? No way even in this economy does that happen. You can get two of those three for $14M, but not all three. And they could easly fit that $14M in the cap in addition to Redd and Jefferson because after those two they still have $35-40M in cap space if they didn't have bad contracts with Gadzuric, Bell, Elson, and Allen.

If I understand correctly, the best offer Sessions & CV would realistically get from another team is a MLE, which was around $5.5m this year. So that would leave $3m for Illyasova, and that might be doable.

[southpaw121505]

trwi7 wrote:

Sessions - $5.8 million

Villanueva - $5 million

Ilyasova - $3.5 million

The whole team needs to be dismantled for youth and draft picks.

What do you call those 3 guys? Looks like 3 young, talented guys at affordable numbers. Those 3 > Jefferson all day. Even if you think they are role players, at least they are young enough where they COULD improve. Sessions even COULD be a star, not saying he will be but at least you have that chance, you can't say that about Jefferson at this stage. Also, those smaller deals are easier to move down the road.

[JJHardy7]

If I understand correctly, the best offer Sessions & CV would realistically get from another team is a MLE, which was around $5.5m this year. So that would leave $3m for Illyasova, and that might be doable.

 

This isn't directed at you and maybe someone can let me know...why? Is the economy that bad in the NBA? I've posted many, many times about this and I think if that's the case it might finally be true...but I don't think it's that bad. I do like these 'make believe' numbers to support opinions though. It's a joke to compare now to when Redd and RJ signed deals...can we agree with that? I've said before and I'll say it again of the three major sports the NBA will be crushed with the economy despite the NBA playoff tv ratings.

 

What do you call those 3 guys? Looks like 3 young, talented guys at affordable numbers. Those 3 > Jefferson all day. Even if you think they are role players, at least they are young enough where they COULD improve. Sessions even COULD be a star, not saying he will be but at least you have that chance, you can't say that about Jefferson at this stage. Also, those smaller deals are easier to move down the road.

 

We didn't sign RJ though. We dumped Simmons though. So it's really Simmons vs. RJ to being with. RJ > Simmons...all day. It shouldn't be and never be RJ vs. anyone else except Simmons since that was the trade. If you want to whine about him, whine about signing Simmons. RJ is a great player to have on the team compared to Bobby. I also think some of the contracts with CV and Simmons thrown out here are way low (if I know the cap right) or prove the economy is kicking the crap out of the NBA...which means the Bucks will be done in Milwaukee very soon. I still say within three years they're done unless a miracle happens.

[southpaw121505]

It became RJ vs those 3 guys when we decided to keep RJ at the deadline instead of trading him for expirings to Portland or Cleveland.

[trwi7]

This isn't directed at you and maybe someone can let me know...why?

Villanueva can earn more, but there aren't a lot of teams with cap space and the ones that are aren't in the market for a PF so he might be better off taking his one year qualifying offer at $4.6 million and going into next offseason as an unrestricted free agent when a ton of teams have cap space. Yeah, the LeBron's and Wade's and Bosh's and Stoudemire's are going to get paid first, but there are going to be a lot of teams with cap space that aren't going to get one of those great players and they might get desperate and make a play on a young guy with upside to show their fans that they got something for their cap space.

 

Sessions can only make the MLE next year. He can make more in the following years (although year two would be limited as well.) He falls under the Gilbert Arenas provision of the CBA, which is explained here.

[JJHardy7]

I gotcha. I guess I don't see that happening. Not that teams aren't strapped for cash, but given the economy and the cap situation I could see the NBA doing something to help this out.

 

I also don't see a player taking a one year deal and waiting that is CV's age. It very well could happen, but it's not usually the norm. I've posted before that I don't think it's out of the question that they bring back both given the way the Bucks cap will turn over in the next few years. It'd make this year tight, but I hope they take on that risk. I know it's not all that likely, but we'll see I guess.

[LouisEly]

Some questions:

 

1) What is the status of Mbah a Moute for next year? His salary is not listed here, but he signed a two-year deal, right?

2) What are the odds that Elson and Allen don't cash in their options? If Elson and Allen cash in their option, can the Bucks buy out the options, and if so would the buyout count against the cap?

3) Is Charlie Bell good enough to be able to trade him for a 2nd round pick to clear out his salary? How likely is that? (That would clear cap room for Ilyasova or their draft pick.) How likely would be trading Ridnour for a 2nd to clear up cap room?

4) With the draft being relatively weak after the first three picks, how realistic would it be to trade their first this year to another team for their first next year? If another team wanted to trade up to the Bucks #10 pick, how likely would they be able to trade down and get the other team to take Gadzuric or Ridnour in exchange for swapping picks?

5) Technically this is the last year of Redd's deal, but he has a player option for 2010-11; granted it is at $18M, but how does that affect his trade value this offseason? Would Redd be more likely to take the $18M for one season and then go to free agency, or decline the option and seek a longer-term deal at less than $18M the first year of the deal?

6) Sessions becomes a restricted free agent on 7/1 but the draft is on 6/25; if they draft a PG (preferrably Flynn, or Holiday or Curry) do they just let Sessions walk (or trade him)? If the demand for Sessions is high (according to his agent), what about trading him (in a sign-and-trade for a draft pick) prior to the draft?

7) It is possible to negotiate a longer-term deal with Sessions and CV that is cap-friendly the first two years and then allows for a significant raise the third year when Redd, Jefferson, and Gadzuric's current deals are off the books? My understanding is that Sessions technically doesn't become a RFA until 7/1; would he accept (and would it be wise to offer him) a deal that pays him say $3M the next two years and then say $9M the following two years for an average salary of $6M/year for four years?

[trwi7]

1) What is the status of Mbah a Moute for next year? His salary is not listed here, but he signed a two-year deal, right?

 

He actually signed a three year deal, after next year, the final year is unguaranteed, but that will definitely be picked up as it's under $1 million ($897 thousand and some change if I'm not mistaken.)

 

2) What are the odds that Elson and Allen don't cash in their options? If Elson and Allen cash in their option, can the Bucks buy out the options, and if so would the buyout count against the cap?

 

I believe Elson already said he would exercise his and Allen is terrible so there's no way he's getting more money than he is now (I actually doubt if any team would offer him anything) so I'm 99.9% sure he'll pick his up.

 

3) Is Charlie Bell good enough to be able to trade him for a 2nd round pick to clear out his salary? How likely is that? (That would clear cap room for Ilyasova or their draft pick.) How likely would be trading Ridnour for a 2nd to clear up cap room?

 

Mediocre player, long term salary. Very unlikely.

 

4) With the draft being relatively weak after the first three picks, how realistic would it be to trade their first this year to another team for their first next year?

 

Depends on the team. Teams like Oklahoma City, the Clippers, Grizzlies, etc. wouldn't since there's a chance that their picks will be higher next year than #10 this year. Teams in the 10-16 range are probably out as well for the same reason. The only teams who would probably consider it are teams like the Lakers, Cavs, Magic, Celtics etc. That's not something we should do though.

 

 

If another team wanted to trade up to the Bucks #10 pick, how likely would they be able to trade down and get the other team to take Gadzuric or Ridnour in exchange for swapping picks?

 

We would need to find a team with cap space to absorb the salary. We might be able to get Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez and #24 for Ridnour and #10. Blake's salary is completely unguaranteed and Rodriguez only makes a little over $1 million as well. Of course if Portland just waives Blake they could have a good amount of cap space so they would have to decide whether they want to make an offer to Sessions, so they might not do that.

 

5) Technically this is the last year of Redd's deal, but he has a player option for 2010-11; granted it is at $18M, but how does that affect his trade value this offseason? Would Redd be more likely to take the $18M for one season and then go to free agency, or decline the option and seek a longer-term deal at less than $18M the first year of the deal?

 

I'm pretty much resigned to the fact that both Redd and Jefferson are going to take their player options. If they decline them, they aren't even going to be close to the best free agents on the market so I think they'll probably take what they are guaranteed to get and then go to free agency in 2011 where they won't be overshadowed by LeBron, Wade, Stoudemire, Bosh etc.

 

6) Sessions becomes a restricted free agent on 7/1 but the draft is on 6/25; if they draft a PG (preferrably Flynn, or Holiday or Curry) do they just let Sessions walk

I would hope it depends on how much the offer is. If he's offered say 4 years, $14 million and signs the offer sheet, I'd hope we sign him regardless of who we take in the draft.

 

If the demand for Sessions is high (according to his agent), what about trading him (in a sign-and-trade for a draft pick) prior to the draft?

 

We're really not going to get much of anything for him in a sign and trade. He's a restricted free agent, so once he signs an offer sheet from another team, he either goes to the team he signed an offer sheet with or the Bucks match the offer and he comes back to us. More likely, is he just leaves since the other team would have no obligation to give anything up. Of course the Bucks could say we'll match the offer, but we are open to a sign and trade and that could make the team worry depending on how much they like Sessions and that could net us a pick or prospect.

 

7) It is possible to negotiate a longer-term deal with Sessions and CV that is cap-friendly the first two years and then allows for a significant raise the third year when Redd, Jefferson, and Gadzuric's current deals are off the books? My understanding is that Sessions technically doesn't become a RFA until 7/1; would he accept (and would it be wise to offer him) a deal that pays him say $3M the next two years and then say $9M the following two years for an average salary of $6M/year for four years?

 

I could be wrong, but I don't think that's allowed under the CBA.

[olliegjw]

trwi7 wrote:

Sessions - $5.8 million

Villanueva - $5 million

Ilyasova - $3.5 million

The whole team needs to be dismantled for youth and draft picks.

What do you call those 3 guys? Looks like 3 young, talented guys at affordable numbers. Those 3 > Jefferson all day. Even if you think they are role players, at least they are young enough where they COULD improve. Sessions even COULD be a star, not saying he will be but at least you have that chance, you can't say that about Jefferson at this stage. Also, those smaller deals are easier to move down the road.

I call them role players. At best, they could get the Bucks 40-45 wins and a 6th seed. Let them go, trade any assets for picks, and rebuild. The goal is to win a championship, not back into the playoffs. The NBA is not like MLB, where any team that makes the playoffs can win the championship.

[trwi7]

You don't let young cheap assets go. Those guys at the very least should require picks in return and they won't be overpaid, so we could easily trade them.

[JJHardy7]

We would need to find a team with cap space to absorb the salary. We might be able to get Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez and #24 for Ridnour and #10. Blake's salary is completely unguaranteed and Rodriguez only makes a little over $1 million as well. Of course if Portland just waives Blake they could have a good amount of cap space so they would have to decide whether they want to make an offer to Sessions, so they might not do that.

 

I understand your logic, but Blake doesn't want to be in Milwaukee to the point where he just flat out won't play up to his ability IMO.

 

trwi7, what would you do this off-season? I know I don't always agree with your opinions, but you seem to have a good feel for the team.

 

I personally (I know it's not my money) would re-sign CV and Sessions and use the #10 pick. I know that would put the Bucks most likely above the tax, but I feel if this team sticks together, stays healthy, and drafts a good player they could contend for the #4 - #6 pick. I know that's not a championship team, but I'd take it. I think this team has to try and win now in order to keep their fans. I know that goes against what you say trwi7, but hopefully the younger guys on the team continue to develop and as they do Redd can be re-signed at a cheaper rate or traded next off-season. I'd love to see this team add Ty Lawson especially if they can trade down a few slots. From day one, Lawson will be one of the fastest players in the league and could really push the tempo. I know this doesn't help the defense, but with Skiles as the coach, Luc being one of the better defenders in the league IMO, and Redd showing that he cared a bit more about defense this team might not be that bad. I do worry that they don't have a legit #4 and by that I mean a banger. CV isn't a bad player, but I don't see him in the mold the team will need. I think we're a bit thin in the rebound area as it stands today.

[LouisEly]

We're really not going to get much of anything for him in a sign and trade. He's a restricted free agent, so once he signs an offer sheet from another team, he either goes to the team he signed an offer sheet with or the Bucks match the offer and he comes back to us.

 

My understanding though is that he doesn't become a RFA until 7/1, so if he signs a contract extension prior to 7/1 he will no longer become a free agent, correct?

 

I understand your logic, but Blake doesn't want to be in Milwaukee to the point where he just flat out won't play up to his ability IMO.

 

I think trwi's point was that Blake's contract is not guaranteed, so the only reason for including him is to waive him to clear up cap room.

[trwi7]

Right, but then we can't trade him right after he signs a contract. We would have to wait 30 days at least I believe.

[trwi7]

I understand your logic, but Blake doesn't want to be in Milwaukee to the point where he just flat out won't play up to his ability IMO.

 

Right, Blake is an expiring contract on steroids right now. If we trade for him and then waive him, he's happy because he could probably go back to Portland or wherever he wants and we get instant savings since his contract is unguaranteed.

 

I personally (I know it's not my money) would re-sign CV and Sessions and use the #10 pick. I know that would put the Bucks most likely above the tax

 

I would like that too, but Kohl won't and never has gone above the luxury tax. I would look to trade Alexander for a 2nd round pick, maybe explore trading Jefferson to San Antonio for a couple of their partially non guaranteed contracts and then explore Ridnour trades. I want at least Sessions and the 10th pick on the team next year. I'd like to see Villanueva and Ilyasova brought back, but that seems unlikely at this point since I don't think we'll be able to clear enough salary.

[JJHardy7]

Right, Blake is an expiring contract on steroids right now. If we trade for him and then waive him, he's happy because he could probably go back to Portland or wherever he wants and we get instant savings since his contract is unguaranteed.

 

I didn't know that some contracts are guaranteed. Why is that?

 

I would like that too, but Kohl won't and never has gone above the luxury tax. I would look to trade Alexander for a 2nd round pick, maybe explore trading Jefferson to San Antonio for a couple of their partially non guaranteed contracts and then explore Ridnour trades. I want at least Sessions and the 10th pick on the team next year. I'd like to see Villanueva and Ilyasova brought back, but that seems unlikely at this point since I don't think we'll be able to clear enough salary.

 

I personally don't think Joe is that bad that we have to trade him for a 2nd round pick, but I guess we'll see. Who do you take with the 10th pick though if you have Sessions?

[nate82]

I personally don't think Joe is that bad that we have to trade him for a 2nd round pick, but I guess we'll see. Who do you take with the 10th pick though if you have Sessions?

The best available player. Redd is going to be out the first month or so I believe of the season so the Bucks are going to have to plug someone into that hole. I would take Holiday or Lawson with the 10th pick if either of the two are available.

[JJHardy7]

The best available player. Redd is going to be out the first month or so I believe of the season so the Bucks are going to have to plug someone into that hole. I would take Holiday or Lawson with the 10th pick if either of the two are available.

 

That's kind of to my point. Do you re-sign Sessions or CV if all is equal in terms of money (I know this might not be the case)? This draft seems pretty weak with the exception of PG. I still would love Lawson and I think we might be able to slide down a few spots for him. Not sure if there will be enough interest though for teams to trade up.

[nate82]

I believe Lawson will be available for the Bucks to draft at the #10 spot or Flynn could be a possibility. Holiday is the only player the Bucks would have to trade up to get and none of the teams in front of the Kings though would be interested in moving down. But if Rubio drops to the #4 spot I could see the Bucks being able to do a trade with the Wizards and getting Holiday at the #5 spot in the draft by either trading away Jefferson or even Redd and the #10 pick for the #5 pick and Butler. I'm not sure on the money wise if that would work for the Wizards or not but that could be a possibility. Redd or Jefferson on the Wizards would help them with their scoring by getting them another option besides Arenas.