Milwaukee Bucks Thread 2008–2009 (part 2)

[ILuvDaBush]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/bucks/40491682.html

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/090227

 

Mike Hunt and Bill Simmons both have written recent articles detailing the financial crisis threatening our Bucks. TSG thinks the Bucks are one of the two or three franchises most ripe for picking, while Hunt argues that Kohl won't be as pummelled by the recent economic downturn as much as his cronies because of the Bucks' financial independence from the stock market (without mentioning the stock markets' influence on Kohl's market).

 

-----

Continued from:

 

viewtopic.php?p=486793#p486793

 

Original Lead:

 

viewtopic.php?t=16298

[Gobias Industries]

Figured this would be the best place to post this. Unbelievable.

 

[samwise]

I will add this to the list...

 

[endaround]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/bucks/40491682.html

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/090227

 

Mike Hunt and Bill Simmons both have written recent articles detailing the financial crisis threatening our Bucks. TSG thinks the Bucks are one of the two or three franchises most ripe for picking, while Hunt argues that Kohl won't be as pummelled by the recent economic downturn as much as his cronies because of the Bucks' financial independence from the stock market (without mentioning the stock markets' influence on Kohl's market).

 

Herb Kohl has nothing to do with Kohl's department store, never had

[nodakfan17]

I have an office near a Bulls fan at work, so naturally the subject of tonight's game has come up.

 

Is this the most important game to date? The optimist in me says yes, but I can't help thinking that the 3/3 matchup against the Nets at the BC was of greater importance.

 

Either way, I'll be cheering on the Bucks tonight!

[ILuvDaBush]

When I mentioned the economy's effect on Kohl's market, it was meant The Bucks' market (US...) was being hit hard by the economy, even if Kohl isn't directly feeling the effects.

[ILuvDaBush]

And with our loss last night, it is looking more and more likely that we made an egregious error when we didn't trade Jefferson when we had the chance. Sessions and CV are looking more and more like they should be the foundation (though I still think Bogut is going to live up to his billing as the #1 pick, as well). Instead, we are almost assured of losing both, and wholly assured of losing one (while probably losing our first if we sign one, Phoenix Suns-style). This isn't shaping up to be a generational draft, but I'm sure Skiles/Hammond need that #1 to mold this team into their vision. What is certain is that this team is teeming with potential, but will probably fall short of reaching it. I still hold out hope that DeRozen will don the Deer Insignia next year, but that has more to do with the belief that Redd will almost assuredly be gone after this year and he will need a replacement. Otherwise (and this wholly depends on the Bux's ability to re-sign the Razor)...

 

Josh Howard

Erick Dampier

Jerry Stackhouse (to balance salaries)

 

for

 

Mikey Redd

Danny Gadz

Luke Ridnour

 

Stack and Ridnour would come off the books after next year, while J-Ho the Nugget Blazer and his sidekick, E-D, are exchanged for Danny Gadz and the Olympic sharp-shooter. This could be seen as a lateral move, but J-Ho and Redd would both seem to be in need of a change of scenery. E-D and Gadz are considered to be two of the worst contract in the NBA (and the dysfunctional center makes more per year than Danny Gadz). I just think, given the fragile nature of the Aussie, we could use a better back-up and I don't expect Elson back next year.

[samwise]

IIRC Dampier will be in the last year of his contract next year and with 2010 being the summer of the FA, I imagine he will be an extremely hot commodity. Dallas will get alot more than a specialist (Redd) and some expensive spare parts.

[JJHardy7]

Dallas will get alot more than a specialist (Redd) and some expensive spare parts.

 

I still am amazed how little value some Bucks fans have for Redd. I think this is the first time I've heard him called a 'specialist'. When Redd is healthy, he's a top 10 scorer in this league. Sure he lacks some parts of his game, but I'm sure there are teams out there that would love to have him and there are plenty of other NBA 'stars' who aren't exatly known for their amazing defense. Is he a max player? Maybe not, but calling him a specialist is like calling Prince Fielder a specialist.

[samwise]

I may have been a little harsh. I look at Redd as being able to do one thing really well (shoot) and being average at all other aspects of his game. He is an average defender and he doesn't create alot of oppurtunities for his teamates (mostly because he does not have to be doubled). He is in the mold of Reggie Miller. A spot up shooter who is a good player but probably not going to be the driving force of a championship team.

 

I really do not think the Fielder analogy is correct because he can hit for power and average. Redd is more like Ryan Howard in that they do one thing very well.

 

This is Redd's 9th year in the league and he has finished in the top 10 in points 2 times.

 

2003-04: He was 5th in points.

2005-06: He was 9th in points.

 

Maybe at that time in his career he was an "elite" scorer. I would argue those days are behind him.

[JJHardy7]

He is in the mold of Reggie Miller. A spot up shooter who is a good player but probably not going to be the driving force of a championship team.

 

I think Redd really has developed his game going towards the basket. He's still a shooter, but a guy like Reggie Miller didn't have any type of game going to the basket. He could just make shots from everywhere http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

This is Redd's 9th year in the league and he has finished in the top 10 in points 2 times.

 

He sat on the bench for a bit his first few years. He wasn't a starter until year 4 so I think it's more fair to say in seven years he's been top 10 twice. I'd have to look up the leaders from '06 - '07, but I believe Redd at 26.7 ppg would've been top 10 if he had played in more games. So in other words, it's almost every other year he'll put up top 10 scoring. I'm not saying this is a way to win games, but there are plenty of teams out there that would want Redd. I think he's going to bring in a haul to the right team as his contract gets closer to expiring. He'll be able to provide cap relief for a team and a nice scorer that a team may need to make a push at the playoffs/championship. In other words, much better than say a Raef LaFrentz contract.

 

I really do not think the Fielder analogy is correct because he can hit for power and average. Redd is more like Ryan Howard in that they do one thing very well.

 

I'm not saying the comparison is fair, but you could say Fielder stinks at defense and lacks speed so he's more 'one-dimensional'. I know that's not the case, but to me that's why Redd isn't situational and the same for Prince. They do things very well and do have other areas that lack a bit. I just think they do their things well enough to offset for certain skills they may be lacking.

[Gobias Industries]

IIRC Dampier will be in the last year of his contract next year and with 2010 being the summer of the FA, I imagine he will be an extremely hot commodity. Dallas will get alot more than a specialist (Redd) and some expensive spare parts.

Yeah, Damp will be a commodity next year. I think on one of Bill Simmons' podcasts they determined he was gonna be the "hot" expiring next year, just like Raef Lafrentz was this year.

 

I'd do that trade, even though I think Howard is probably one of the worst "good" players in the league. But Stackhouse's contract is partially NG'd, so we could just waive him, and of course have the Dampier expiring.

 

JJHardy7: People "undervalue" Redd because with his salary, he's a net negative, and because of contracts like RJ and his, we're gonna lose 2 of the CV, Sessions, and 1st Rd pick combination. The days of giving the Michael Redd's of the world max deals are over. He's not a first banana, and probably not even a second on a good team. But yet he's getting paid like he's a top 20 NBA player, when he's probably not even a top 20 wing player anymore. If he loses any athleticism from this injury, he's worthless.

 

That said, I'd rather trade RJ because a) his value will be higher. b) we have LRMAM and (maybe JA) to step in and take the minutes at the 3. Of course, about 3 weeks ago we had our chance at clearing his salary, but our idiot GM (who doesn't have a clear plan) didn't want to trade within the division, because the Cavs are such a big threat to our run at the championship this year. /sarcasm

[homer]

When Redd is healthy, he is a top 20 player.

[JJHardy7]

when he's probably not even a top 20 wing player anymore.

 

We'll just have to agree to disagree. I can't even come anywhere near saying this. I believe he's a top 20 player in the league when healthy and it's time to stop bringing up his contract and compare it to RJ's. It's the way the team is built...not that Redd is a bad player. Many teams are strapped against the cap and it's because of signing terrible players to guaranteed money...ie Gadz. Not because they kept an all-star/Olympian like Redd. Other teams were also interested in him at the max. There are a lot worse contracts out there than Redd's.

[yoshii8]

There is no way that a healthy Michael Redd is a top 20 player, I would even argue that Bogut is a better player, and the way Villanueva is playing he might also be better.

 

Kobe, Lebron, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade, Yao Ming, Steve Nash, Amare Stoudamire, Tim Duncan, Boozer, Deron Williams, KG, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Granger, Gasol, Roy, Bosh, Nowitzki, Carmelo Anthony are all better, and I could keep going for a while. I think top 40 might even be pushing it.

[JJHardy7]

Kobe, Lebron, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade, Yao Ming, Steve Nash, Amare Stoudamire, Tim Duncan, Boozer, Deron Williams, KG, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Granger, Gasol, Roy, Bosh, Nowitzki, Carmelo Anthony are all better, and I could keep going for a while. I think top 40 might even be pushing it.

 

If healthy, Redd makes the all-star team this year. Correct?

[yoshii8]

He might have made it, but I don't think it would have been a guarantee.

[Weirdos19]

There is no way that a healthy Michael Redd is a top 20 player, I would even argue that Bogut is a better player, and the way Villanueva is playing he might also be better.

 

Kobe, Lebron, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade, Yao Ming, Steve Nash, Amare Stoudamire, Tim Duncan, Boozer, Deron Williams, KG, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Granger, Gasol, Roy, Bosh, Nowitzki, Carmelo Anthony are all better, and I could keep going for a while. I think top 40 might even be pushing it.

Elton Brand, McGrady, Baron Davis, David West, Devin Harris, Nate Robinson, Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldrige, Camby, Mo Williams, Tony Parker, Ginobili, Bargnani, Richard hamilton, Billups, Turkeglu, Westbrook. I could even add more.

[homer]

Redd's career PER is 17th among active players. That's top 20. Redd gets a lot of flack but quite frankly he's pretty darn good when he plays.

 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_active.html

[Gobias Industries]

There is no way that a healthy Michael Redd is a top 20 player, I would even argue that Bogut is a better player, and the way Villanueva is playing he might also be better.

I agree. Bogut is much better overall player than Redd.

 

As for wings that are better than Redd (not taking salary into consideration):

 

Out of Redd's league: Lebron, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Vince Carter, Kobe, Kevin Martin, Manu Ginobli, Joe Johnson, Dwanye Wade, Caron Butler, Carmelo, Kevin Durant, Brandon Roy.

Can make a case either way: Andre Iguodala, OJ Mayo, John Salmons, Rip Hamilton, Josh Howard, Shane Battier, Rudy Gay, Ronnie Brewer

Redd is most likely better: Stephen Jackson, Jason Richardson, Richard Jefferson, Loul Deng, Hedo Turkoglu

[JJHardy7]

Elton Brand, McGrady, Baron Davis, David West, Devin Harris, Nate Robinson, Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldrige, Camby, Mo Williams, Tony Parker, Ginobili, Bargnani, Richard hamilton, Billups, Turkeglu, Westbrook. I could even add more.

 

I would continue to question some of the names on this list if you continue to do even more. I'll agree to disagree. I question any list that puts some of these guys ahead of Redd. He is under appreciated in Milwaukee. I agree with homer. His PER compared to some of the guys on this list and others is clearly much better.

[samwise]

Redd may be a top 50 player but in no way is he a top 20. He is the "star" of the team when he is not hurt. But with Redd down CV is the best player on the team, so has CV cracked the top 20? Does someone scoring 21 points a game put that person into the league's elite? I really don't think it does. I would argue that points alone are not a very good measure of how "good" a player is, because sometimes a pass or a rebound are a better basketball play.

 

The Redd debate is interesting because basketball statistics do not lend themselves to evaluating a players true worth. The same discussion applies to CV. Does his total lack of effort on the defensive end get offset by his offensive prowess? This is exactly what was talked about in the Michael Lewis article on Battier a few weeks ago.

 

My question to everyone is this: Can you build a championship team around Michael Redd right now?

[homer]

"The Redd debate is interesting because basketball statistics do not lend themselves to evaluating a players true worth."

 

That's why I use PER which is production per minute. It takes into account everything a player does to help or hurt the team. It's not perfect especially on defense since playing good defense doesn't mean you get a lot of steals or get a ton of rebounds but it's a decent starting point.

 

"The same discussion applies to CV. Does his total lack of effort on the defensive end get offset by his offensive prowess?"

 

Villanueva is a great rebounder (top 20 in the league among all players in defensive rebounding percentage).

[samwise]

Redd's career PER is 17th among active players. That's top 20. Redd gets a lot of flack but quite frankly he's pretty darn good when he plays.

 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_active.html

 

You cannot base your assumption off of that stat. It excludes players who are no longer active and it is a cumulative stat, not a stat for who is more efficient right now. Your assumption could be that in the last 7 years Redd is a top 20 player, but you cannot say that currently he is a top 20 player based on that stat.

[samwise]

82games.com Roland ratings have Redd as the 17th best player.

http://www.82games.com/0809/ROLRTG8.HTM