Ryan Braun exonerated, no suspension… Latest: MLB drops Eliezer Alfonzo suspension; case similar to Braun's (part 2)

[pebadger]

The funny thing about the whole "Bud's team" chatter is that my father-in-law has felt for years that the Brewers have been punished by the umpires and certain actions of other clubs because they were Bud's team. It's all a matter of your incoherent conspiratorial perspective.

[brwrsfan]

I haven't read the Caroll peice but from what I can gather from you guys, I'm pretty disappointed by it. I thought it would be someting that helped clear Braun (like duplicating the exact results for example by leaving it sit out). The fact that SI didn't want it, the fact that it wound up on Amazon for money and the fact that virtually nobody else has taken his information and ran with it all have me pretty concerned that it doesn't really say much to help Braun.

 

I think the press conference helped, but it still seems like most fans still think he got lucky.

[Nottso]

The way I see it, you can't have it both ways. Either you believe that Braun juiced, or you believe that the collector was up to no good.

 

I don't believe either to be the case. Can we just wait until we have all the scientific details?

 

I'm pretty much in that same camp. There are just too many other scenarios to narrow it down to these two. I do believe that the 44 hour delay is likely responsible for the positive, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the collector purposely tainted it.

[RightFieldCoder]

I know the inner workings of the USPS and not FedEx. But the sitting around at FedEx doesn't make sense. Only the delivery drivers and commercial stores are closed late at nights and Sundays. The actual shipping operations (truck drivers, dock workers, airport workers, planes) all work 24/7. If you deliver something to the post office when it closes on Saturday, the latest it would leave the building would be Sunday mid day (at least in major cities). The only time it would be "sitting around" is if you ship it on a Wednesday or Thursday and it arrives at the destination post office on Saturday. Then it waits for the next time the delivery person loads up, which would be Monday morning. Maybe FedEx works differently.

 

It's possible for Braun to not have juiced and the collector to not act in malice. It's possible that it is the collector's mistakes (incompetence?) caused the bad results.

[pretendastronaut]

I haven't read the Caroll peice but from what I can gather from you guys, I'm pretty disappointed by it. I thought it would be someting that helped clear Braun (like duplicating the exact results for example by leaving it sit out). The fact that SI didn't want it, the fact that it wound up on Amazon for money and the fact that virtually nobody else has taken his information and ran with it all have me pretty concerned that it doesn't really say much to help Braun.

 

It's not a earth shattering article and doesn't say much outside of what we already knew from him, and certainly isn't technically detailed in any way. I would think that Braun's team being able to replicate how the test went bad would be big news, but he's really the only person I've seen saying that, so I think we should be a bit cautious about that info at this point.

 

I tried asking him in a couple of ways on Twitter yesterday if was surprised Braun didn't mention it, to which he basically just said that technical urine flora details don't make good headlines, but 44 hours and FedEx do. I agreed with him that Braun's team certainly went PR route with the FedEx info and it changed the tone for a lot of people, but even without getting technical if Braun would have stood there and said that his team was able to demonstrate/replicate how the test went bad, it would have been the final word about this. Caroll's response was that Das was the final word and he had delivered it, which is true as far as the appeal, but not, obviously and unfortunately, in the court of public opinion.

[PrinceEatMeat]

FWIW, I just found out today that my Mom is really good friend's wife Laurenzi's wife, and was at his wedding. So she knows him and his family really well. She's known them for at least 30 years. Said the whole family, including Dino, are all really good, decent people. So she said there's no way he would've done anything to the sample. She was shocked it was him. Obviously he messed up somehow. Maybe it got messed up from being left out or something. That seems more plausible at this point. No one really knows the situation. I just thought it was interesting coming from someone that knows him and his family really well.

[RockCoCougars]

The funny thing about the whole "Bud's team" chatter is that my father-in-law has felt for years that the Brewers have been punished by the umpires and certain actions of other clubs because they were Bud's team. It's all a matter of your incoherent conspiratorial perspective.

 

I don't think that there is any doubt that Selig becoming 'Interim' Commissioner hurt the Brewers far worse than it helped them, if for no reason than the fact that Laurel and Wendy took over the day to day operations of the club. You can basically track the decline of the club back to September of '92 when Selig took the gig. It was probably one of the worst things that could have happened to the team when you think about it.

 

Bottom line, all the fans of other teams with the whole Selig/Brewers conspiracy are incredibly irritating to me.

[xisxisxis]

FWIW, I just found out today that my Mom is really good friend's wife Laurenzi's wife, and was at his wedding. So she knows him and his family really well.

 

So your mom is best friends with the wife of a cubs fan? Isn't that sufficient grounds to ban PrinceEatMeat?

[pebadger]

Here's the problem with Braun making any technical arguments yesterday:

 

Intelligent as he is, he's simply not the guy you want out there making those arguments. They're too technical, too subtle and probably not entirely dispositive of the case in the way that would satisfy the "we demand a full accounting" crowd.

 

If you start down that road, you're going to get followup questions and Braun is not equipped to answer them in all likelihood. What's worse, the followup question might be an awful question that sounds like it makes sense, but it probably doesn't. It's hard to answer a bad question in a good way unless you are extremely well-versed in the subject matter which you are addressing. Second, you invite in a whole bunch of outside experts into the case who are going to populate every talk outlet and talk about something of which they have no first-hand knowledge of the facts. Most of them will probably be hostile to Braun's position and they will amke any honest mistake by a person less well-versed than them look like dissembling and lies. It's just the nature of how these things go, and we've already seen it as everybody with a stake in the anti-doping world has already weighed in after probably spending less time with the particulars of this case than most of us have. Braun and his people simply aren't going to win a 'science-y' media war against a group that has honed their "we're always right, athletes always cheat" rhetoric for over 20 years now.

 

The bottom line is, if you start arguing science you may get maneuvered into the position of being required by the media to construct an entire narrative based on science, which is probably simply not plausible. The media has clearly lost sight of the fact that, no matter what the legal construct is, a reasonable person should be expecting MLB to be the ones constructing that narrative, as that narrative is their entire case. MLB is shielded from having to make this case by the very cloak of secrecy which was breached; a breach that, by its very existence, served to shift that same onus onto Braun. Don't think that how any of this spin machine works out happened just by accident. The system is designed to almost always beat the athlete in the hearing, and further designed to continue to impugn his character in almost every case in which he does win. It's no accident that I was able to predict the "technicality" line of post-verdict attack way back on December 11.

[dlk9s]

Maybe this was covered earlier in the thread and I just don't remember, but the big thing that is still confusing to me is how the second test came back positive for synthetic testosterone if Braun was, in fact, totally clean. I've read about how the initial test could return crazy T:E ratios if the test was delayed and sample wasn't properly stored, but I've also read that that would have no bearing on synthetic testosterone readings. To me, that's still the one thing that doesn't make me 100% confident that Braun was clean; all the other evidence, circumstances, history, logic add up "positively" (no pun intended) for Braun.

[pebadger]

dlk9s,

 

Go back up the thread and find the pictures xisxisxis posted. That's the kind of thing from which the determination of synthetic T being present is made. Let's just say the there is a whole lot more to determining that sythentic T is present than having a red light turn on on the machine which indicates, without question, that synthetic T is present. I know you know I've posted extensively about the science/technology stuff and you can perhaps look at some of those again for some general ideas as to how this can happen. The more telling point might be, as I alluded to in the "false positive" thread, most often you just don't know. The risk of not knowing falls on the player, despite the fact that he has no control over any of the process. I really wish we had access to more data so that people who really understand this stuff better than I do could dig into it.

[jeffy]

I know the inner workings of the USPS and not FedEx. But the sitting around at FedEx doesn't make sense.

 

You may be correct. If you go to their site you can get transit times. It told me if dropped off today, it could be in Montreal by Monday at noon, if dropped off Monday it would be Tuesday at noon. So there is a delay, but only 1 day, not 2 and that may be only because they don't deliver on Sunday, not because the package is not being moved.

[burnzy24]

Maybe this was covered earlier in the thread and I just don't remember, but the big thing that is still confusing to me is how the second test came back positive for synthetic testosterone if Braun was, in fact, totally clean.

 

If I remember correctly, the second test was from the same initial sample which had the chain of custody issues. The initial sample was split into two parts. The first sample got the initial positive and the second part was where they tested for and found the synthetic testosterone.

[RockCoCougars]

Maybe this was covered earlier in the thread and I just don't remember, but the big thing that is still confusing to me is how the second test came back positive for synthetic testosterone if Braun was, in fact, totally clean.

 

Exactly. Perhaps someone could set me straight, but as far as I know with my limited scientific knowledge, there should be no way that human urine could degrade into synthetic testosterone. If that's the case, there can only be two ways the sample was positive. To me, after watching Braun yesterday, the crux of his argument is going to be the courier's incompetence/possible tampering, and nothing scientific. Though he mentioned offering a DNA test, I thought it was interesting that he didn't say anything about the rumored retest and lie detector.

 

Not saying that he's guilty, but let's be real, Braun is a smooth character to begin with- I'd bet he's been tweaking that news conference for weeks with lawyers/PR people. With that kind of preparation, the guy could sell ice to Eskimos.

[dlk9s]

Thanks, pebadger. Looks like I have some re-reading to do!

[jeffy]

Is the 18 (or whatever the number was) FedEx locations an exaggeration? What type of FedEx facilities does MLB use for this? The FedEx website has:

 

FedEx staffed

FedEx Kinko's, now FedEx Office

Self-service

FedEx Authorized ShipCenter

 

I'm assuming, at a minimum, the self service would not be used. If the collector said "I dropped in in a self -serve box at 6 PM", I would think that would be considered a questionable practice. But including self-serve seems to be the only way to get up to the number of locations that were stated.

[xisxisxis]

Exactly. Perhaps someone could set me straight, but as far as I know with my limited scientific knowledge, there should be no way that human urine could degrade into synthetic testosterone

 

The test only measures the weight of a molecule with a small error. Anything with similar weight will appear as synthetic T. (All 140 lb women are not the same). If a larger molecule degrades it can have a degradation product the same size as synthetic T and make it seem like their is more than normal (if you cut off Roseanne Barr's arms and legs you don't get Paris Hilton).

 

Not saying that he's guilty, but let's be real, Braun is a smooth character to begin with- I'd bet he's been tweaking that news conference for weeks with lawyers/PR people. With that kind of preparation, the guy could sell ice to Eskimos.

 

So you think because Braun handles himself well that he's obviously capable of lying and probably did. Okay....

[bylo tesi me]

The question I have is why is MLB scheduling tests without setting up proper chain of custody beforehand? The very idea that a professional collector has to drive around town looking for a Fed Ex office to ship his sample seems very unprofessional to me. Why isn't MLB explaining this? I personally would trust Fed Ex to properly store my sample for 2 days Rather than some guy placing it in his Fridge or on his desk. At least then there is documentation as to how it was properly stored.

[pebadger]

Maybe this was covered earlier in the thread and I just don't remember, but the big thing that is still confusing to me is how the second test came back positive for synthetic testosterone if Braun was, in fact, totally clean.

 

Exactly. Perhaps someone could set me straight, but as far as I know with my limited scientific knowledge, there should be no way that human urine could degrade into synthetic testosterone. If that's the case, there can only be two ways the sample was positive. To me, after watching Braun yesterday, the crux of his argument is going to be the courier's incompetence/possible tampering, and nothing scientific. Though he mentioned offering a DNA test, I thought it was interesting that he didn't say anything about the rumored retest and lie detector.

 

Not saying that he's guilty, but let's be real, Braun is a smooth character to begin with- I'd bet he's been tweaking that news conference for weeks with lawyers/PR people. With that kind of preparation, the guy could sell ice to Eskimos.

 

No, you can't spontaneously sprout synthetic T in urine sample, but the test that "determines" that synthetic T is present does not actually find synthetic T in urine. What it does is identify the metabolites produced when T is used up by your body processes. It identifies them only by very precisely detemining when the remnants of those metabolites pass in front of a sensor after the urine sample has been literally turned into a gas. The gas rises up a tube and the different remnant rise at microscopically different rates. A sensor records data about these remnants as they pass by. This data is turned into a printout (though it can also be evaluated just as numbers). Then you look on your printout for a peak at a given "time" on the graph, you measure that peak and make a determination as to what that means.

 

Here's the catch. What if two different things are passing by the sensor at a give time? If you are predisposed to think that everything passing by that sensor at that specific time is indicative of synthetic T, you're going to get a big peak that looks like a lot of synthetic T that is actually only a mcuh smaller amounts of two different things. (And that small amount, for reasons alluded to in posts long ago, would not mean that there was a small amount of synthetic T, either. A determination of synthetic T being present can only be made by comparing ratios of different carbon ions, both of which are present in nature, and then making a statistical hypothesis that a certain ratio is "out of whack" with what would normally be expected in a given sample. It's diagnostic art and statistics as much as anything.

 

This is a vast oversimplification, but the point is that you don't "find' synthetic T waving back at you from under a microscope. These tests are extraordinarily complex in nature. Just reading this simplified version should provide further insight into why I say it's virtually impossible for the athlete to challenge the conclusion of the testers when they say they're right.

[xisxisxis]

Is the 18 (or whatever the number was) FedEx locations an exaggeration

 

The kinko's "merger" has lead to a huge increase in "manned" FedEx locations. Also, Mitchel Field should have a 24/7 location. If I remember you pretty much have to pass the airport if you are going to Kenosha.

[dlk9s]

They should also splurge a little and go with same-day or next-morning delivery.

[xisxisxis]

One issue I haven't mention, but is relevant is that each person has a different pH of their urine. Women tend to have lower than men, but their is a range when both sexes overlap significantly. When discussing what happens to a specimen when it is not handle properly we need to realize the pH difference can lead to very different effects. Bacterial flora may be more or less likely to appear, while degradation of the sample could be similar. In the extreme case you could have less bacterial growth, but more degredation. So while they look for bacterial growth we don't know the quality of the sample if there is minimal bacterial growth detected. We just know that there isn't an issue due to bacteria.

[pebadger]

Good point, xixxisxis. That is a perfect example of one "potential" problem for those so asking.

 

As I've noted, people testing for things don't go out of their way to figure out all the things that could possibly go wrong. They rule out all the probable things that can go wrong by following the pre-test procedures (checking pH, checking specific gravity, etc) and, having followed the procedures, they are confident in the ultimate result of the test. That doesn't mean that NOTHING can go wrong though, and you'd never know if it was wrong unless you went looking specifically for exactly what went wrong If the athlete wants to say that something is wrong with the test, he has to prove exactly what was wrong with that specific test performed weeks before in a lab far away.

[AZBrewCrew]

I'm at Maryvale currently and there are quite a few fans wearing Braun Jerseys which is good to see. Pics to come later.

[pretendastronaut]

As far as some of the questions about FedEx locations and timing;

 

If you do a search of locations around Miller Park, it clearly tells you the last time of express pickup on Saturdays, the latest I can see is 5PM, nobody has ground pickups on Saturday, and no pickups of any kind on Sunday. So that part of the argument from the collection standpoint would be legit, there was simply nowhere he could have dropped it on Saturday that would have begun actually transporting it out of Milwaukee until Monday. (But, dropping it off regardless has it's own benefits, as Braun described in his press conference.) At which point he made a judgement call, or was possibly instructed by his employer, to take the samples with him.

 

According to the procedures that's probably still in-bounds (though for as explicitly as the procedure is spelled out, it lays out nothing about what to do in these cases, which I assume will be amended soon), but the question then becomes what happens from that point until Monday afternoon. There have been varying reports of how he stored the samples; in the refrigerator, in a tupperware container on his desk, and in a cooler in his basement. The right answer to that I assume could have vastly different effects on the samples over that period of time. Also, did he keep reports/proof of the safety of the samples? Did anyone else have knowledge of them being in his possession? Did he leave them unattended for any period of time? I've seen it reported that he went to work on Monday and shipped them on his break from work, so did he take them to work? If so, where and how were they stored? Did he leave them unattended at his home?

 

By taking the course of action he did, and I'll assume haven taken it completely innocently, it opened a pandoras box of possibilities and numerous chances at making a mistake. You combine that, with Braun's already highly unusual test result and you easily prove reasonable doubt, at which point it becomes impossible to prove guilt or innocence I would think.