Ryan Braun exonerated, no suspension… Latest: MLB drops Eliezer Alfonzo suspension; case similar to Braun's (part 2)

[rwa12]

I think it could be absolutely as simple as that. While the collector didn't do anything "wrong" necessarily, the guidelines put out by MLB were not followed exactly. That should void the deal. At that point the process began losing it's credibility. You no longer need facts or proof, you can now begin to speculate about all the things that could have happened to the sample. It shouldn't have been in that guy's possession that long, period. It's safer at a FEDEX facility, even if it sits. There it is nothing but an anonymous box. At the collector's house it is still Ryan Braun's sample. From a legal perspective (I'm very much not a lawyer), that would seem to be enough to me. They've probably handled hundreds of samples the same way, but no one thought to challenge that flaw. I forget exactly what they're called, but I think it's along the lines of a zero-day attack in coding. You can only exploit it once, so when you do, make sure it counts, as you'll never be able to do it again.

[GormanHarvey]

Once again, agreed, but I never said it couldn't be that simple. I said I would be surprised or shocked if there wasn't more to it.

[rwa12]

Wasn't trying to be argumentative, just getting my thoughts out. Sorry if it seemed that way!

[Madtown343]

I agree with most here. I still wonder what he meant by the 'real story' and what he thought he would accomplish by saying that to the media.

 

Cheater/not one thing we have learned is Braun is extremely well spoken and seems to always say the right thing at the right time. What could be the motive to saying that the truth is there in a story we don't know yet, and may never know?

 

I still can't wrap my head around that because it seemed to hurt his image and up until now he has been exceptional and making his image look as clean as possible...

[GormanHarvey]

Wasn't trying to be argumentative, just getting my thoughts out. Sorry if it seemed that way!

 

Nope it didn't. I was just trying to clarify what I was saying too.

[dlk9s]

Wasn't trying to be argumentative, just getting my thoughts out. Sorry if it seemed that way!

 

Nope it didn't. I was just trying to clarify what I was saying too.

 

http://i.imgur.com/D74yg.gif

[trwi7]

Wasn't trying to be argumentative, just getting my thoughts out. Sorry if it seemed that way!

 

Nope it didn't. I was just trying to clarify what I was saying too.

 

http://i.imgur.com/D74yg.gif

 

I prefer this one.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHTFcsZjQCs

[homer]

Kinda like a murderer getting off because the cops didn't read him his rights.

No, it's not kind of like that at all.

 

If it was synthentic T then yes it is.

[trwi7]

Kinda like a murderer getting off because the cops didn't read him his rights.

No, it's not kind of like that at all.

 

If it was synthentic T then yes it is.

 

pebadger explained this earlier. The test that measures for synthetic T doesn't mean it actually was.

[Ennder]

There is no way that the procedure is the only reason Braun won his case. The poor handling of the case gave the arbitrator the out he needed to rule in Braun's favor but Braun cast enough of a shadow of a doubt on the results that Das ruled in his favor. It isn't something as simple as getting off on a technicality or it would have been thrown out way before the deadline, Braun put the results in question and had the technicality and the two combined got him off. Hopefully we get to hear the full details at some point but the ESPN side of things are absurd and not the reality.

[ttsather]

 

If it was synthentic T then yes it is.

 

pebadger explained this earlier. The test that measures for synthetic T doesn't mean it actually was.

 

 

Not to mention, it seems like the discussion has bottomed out at "If he's actually guilty, then he got off on a technicality."

 

Which, I guess, is true. You can make as many other-crime juxtapositions as you want. It's also true that if he's innocent it's fantastic that he was able to convince Shyam Das to that he should not still be suspended.

 

We don't know. We also don't know why we don't know (as we have so few facts in general that we cannot effectively judge the cost-benefit of Braun or anyone releasing the information). I'm hoping he plays baseball well this year and helps the Brewers be successful.

[Fear The Chorizo]

To make any conculsions at this point is foolish, because for as much information that's been discussed, we (the public) don't know everything involved factually - simple as that. And as evidenced by the repeated misrepresentation of how foolproof the test for synthetic T is, it seems that there are a great number of people who would never think Braun is clean. Even if Braun's the FIRST player to win his appeal of a suspension, even if there are a good # of things we do know publicly that bring the integrity of the failed sample into question, even if more information is eventually made public that a reasonable person views as solid evidence exonerating Braun, many will still assume he's guilty because of a leak in the process made several months before Braun's defense was even heard in the appeal hearing.

 

I think there's two things holding up the process of more information being made public -

 

1. I think Braun's team may be weighing the option of going after the leak in court, and the only way they would have grounds to go after them is if they don't do the same thing. If Braun's clean and "the whole story" hasn't been told, it may benefit him more to forego legal action and just air everything out (including who the leak was). I think there'd be more benefit to him by clearing his name in public rather than trying to litigate this further.

 

2. Has it been confirmed whether Das has even issued his written decision yet? I think he has 30 days after the ruling to send that to MLBPA and MLB - if that hasn't been issued, there really hasn't been any new information produced by anyone of note to leak.

[dhoffman19]

2. Has it been confirmed whether Das has even issued his written decision yet? I think he has 30 days after the ruling to send that to MLBPA and MLB - if that hasn't been issued, there really hasn't been any new information produced by anyone of note to leak.

 

Yes, he has 30 days from February 23 (March 24), and I have not seen anything indicating that it's been issued yet.

[Menotti80]

Sorry if its been brought up many times, but could Braun and 2 other Brewers all have had crazy high test results, and all 3 appealed, and all 3 won?

 

I heard the other 2 were thrown out, but have we confirmed that?

[Fear The Chorizo]

I heard the other 2 were thrown out, but have we confirmed that?

 

That was the rumor - interesting that Laurenzi and Braun mentioned 3 players being tested that day. If all 3 of the samples collected on that day had unusual T/E results, I would hope that would raise some red flags on sample integrity.

 

There may be a coordinated effort between MLB and Braun to keep the other players' tests under wraps - the way Braun's been villified I wouldn't want to be the other players who were tested and had the results thrown out or also overturned a suspension on appeal.

[Invader3K]

I wonder if the other two Brewers weren't "star" players, and maybe that's why their names haven't come out. No one would really care that much if, say, George Kottaras and Tim Dillard had positive results that were later overturned.

[pebadger]

I think the only thing we know for certain about the written decision is that MLB and MLBPA have jointly announced that they will not release the document to the public.

 

It would be nice to know a whole lot more about the "three positives" rumor. I doubt that there was ever any formal action on the other two results. I've written on this before but my hypothesis on this point is as follows:

 

1) Suppose that there were 3 high T/E ratios from the three samples collected that day

2) Suppose that all 3 samples were subjected to IRMS testing, and that only Braun's came back as a "positive"

3) Suppose that MLB is only interested in pursuing IRMS positives (for a number of reasons previously disccused here), so the preliminary T/E results were never reported as positives to MLBPA or the players and no further action was taken.

4) In the course of thoroughly preparing his defense and investigating the effects of the delay in transferring the samples to the lab, Braun's team rightly asked about what happened to the other samples and discovered the anomalous T/E results

5) Braun's team used that evidence in his defense and it was the use of that evidence at the hearing that was subsequently leaked to Dan Patrick (which is the first place I think it became somewhat public)

 

I think that is a plausible explanation for the "three bad samples" stuff, if indeed there is any truth to the story at all. I think it would also go a long way in supporting the assertion that Will Carroll has made about Braun's team replicating certain results. If so, that would make Braun's case much stronger. It takes the case out of the realm of Braun saying that something inexplicable happened just to his sample and illustrates that whatever happened was a consistent issue with all the samples stored with Braun's (at least with respect to the T/E result).

 

If that is indeed the case, it puts MLB in a tough spot. It would rightly shift the burden of persuasion back on to their shoulders, and they would then be put in the position of having to defend a result based on samples that have already been shown to be compromised in some unknown manner. The lab experts coming in and testifying that they found nothing wrong with the sample (and thus the IRMS result should hold) would only make things worse, as a reasonable person would be able to conclude that there WAS something wrong with the sample and MLB simply didn't make an effort to determine the nature of the problem. Given that lack of due diligence to determine what was wrong, and to demonstrate that it would not affect the IRMS result, a reasonable person could then doubt the IRMS result. As the test result is the only evidence produced by MLB in support of their case, and because Braun's team had done enough to shift the burden of persuasion onto MLB, Braun wins. That's no a techinicality. That's a textbook litigation victory.

 

IF this is at all close to the truth, it also explains to a degree (in addition to a bunch of other factors) why Braun's people aren't saying more. IF there were two other samples, the immediate question to be asked by the media is "Whose samples?" Producing those names would be even more unfair than the Braun leak, if it's even possible to quantify the levels of unfairness present in the case, and Braun would be painted in many corners as the guy willing to throw his own teammates under the bus to clear his own name.

[Fear The Chorizo]

IF there were two other samples, the immediate question to be asked by the media is "Whose samples?"

 

Remember the media seeming perplexed at how little Fielder wanted to talk about Braun after he won his appeal, and how quickly he changed the subject? Wouldn't be surprised if he was tested that day, too.

[GormanHarvey]

Great post pebadger. Makes a ton of sense to me and seems entirely plausible.

[bani1717]

I have a feeling the other two tests weren't even positives. With all the details that have been misreported by the media (eg, whether the sample was left in Laurenzi's car, refrigerator, cooler, container, ....), I have a feeling that the "2 other positives" were misreported to Dan Patrick.

[pebadger]

I have a feeling the other two tests weren't even positives. With all the details that have been misreported by the media (eg, whether the sample was left in Laurenzi's car, refrigerator, cooler, container, ....), I have a feeling that the "2 other positives" were misreported to Dan Patrick.

 

That's a huge question that hasn't been discussed enough: What is a "positive"?

 

The answer is that a positive is what MLB says it is and a violation is what MLB says it is. I very much doubt that there were two other IRMS positive results, but I can envision a scenario (as above) where there were T/E ratios that did not trigger further action. If I had to bet, I'd imagine that it happens "regularly" in the sense that, while rare, it is an occurence which is planned for. The fact that you do see significantly varying T/E ratios in these testing programs is the the reason we now have IRMS testing.

[homer]

This just gets more and more intriguing. From Jonathan Lucroy:

 

“I’m not going to get into the details, but if you knew what we knew, people would be like, ‘Wow,’ ” Lucroy said, adding that he understood why Braun has elaborated only in private. “You’ve got to do that because it’s his prerogative. It’s up to him, it’s his choice. And honestly, if some of the things came out, it would be a lot more negative than positive. There are reasons."

 

This is a snippet from a Bob Wolfley blog in the JSOnline. This stuff has to start slowly leaking out over time as more and more people find out what the deal is.

[Madtown343]

What I can't understand is who is Braun protecting? His image is looking worse to outsiders with this real story stuff. What could be the reasoning for not letting everyone go wow and get over it?

 

These things always leak, but it may not be for years.

[pebadger]

What I can't understand is who is Braun protecting? His image is looking worse to outsiders with this real story stuff. What could be the reasoning for not letting everyone go wow and get over it?

 

These things always leak, but it may not be for years.

 

First, he's protecting himself. I have little doubt that the bigger a deal he would make out of this the more animosity he would garner from inside MLB. He's still subject to the confidentiality provisions of the JDA, so he risks liability by saying anything.

 

Second, as cynical as well all are today, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Braun really does care about the integrity of the game and the process. By saying anything out of school, he likely inflicts a lot of damage to both.

 

Things will come out over time. Time is something that works in Braun's favor IMO. If he just goes out and continues to produce at a HOF level and the people that matter in terms of voting and whatnot eventually get the whole story, what's the difference from Braun's POV? He wasn't suspended, the people that matter to him know the score and the people that will hold power over his HOF legacy will know the score when it matters. Right now all that matters is that he gets to keep playing.

[Nottso]

"...and I would bet my life that that substance never entered my body."

 

That was it for me. I knew right then that he was, and is, innocent. He easily could have said "I did not knowingly take that substance" or any of the other mealy-mouth garbage that guys say. By saying what he said, in the way that he said it, he opened himself up for a lot more grief if he were not telling the truth.