Ryan Braun exonerated, no suspension… Latest: MLB drops Eliezer Alfonzo suspension; case similar to Braun's (part 2)

[FriarHouketh]

It's not that the sample was (or wasn't) tampered with after the fact. It's that there was that huge gap between the administration of the test and reception by the lab where, at least in the eyes of a reasonable person, tampering could have happened.

 

Yes, it's a technicality. Yes, the courier could have acted in the highest, most professional manner, and never touched the sample.

 

But.

 

What MLB, WADA and all of the "Athletes All Cheat" crowd don't realize is, if you're going to have testing, you have to have rules and policies about those tests, or it's arbitrary and capricious.

 

If you let the technicality go, you may as well just have a dartboard at the Commissioner's office to determine the "50-game suspension of the day."

 

You can't have your cake without eating it, too.

 

EDIT: Oh, and this whole decision reminds me of the stories I've heard surrounding the Messersmith case.

 

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Continued from:

 

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Original Lead:

 

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[ilovebeer]

Saw this on fox 6 that a high school junior from Brown Deer found out last week that Braun would be cleared, you can go to his blog at mlblogsnetwork and go to Plushdamentals, i am kind of surprised no one saw this before today.

[ilovebeer]

What was with Prince's comments, didn't see to happy. Casey was happy for Braun.

[jazzytrav]

I'm not sure what you're referring to with Prince's comments. He seemed fine. Prince was never the type to make an overjoyed OMGZ type comment, and I'm sure he wasn't paying that close of attention while wondering if he was getting screwed by Boras.

[fondybrewfan]

So there is a possibility that one of the lawyers that Braun reached out to initially was the one that leaked the info to ESPN? If that is the case that guys career is over; you can get disbarred for breach of confidentiality can't you?

 

I really hope that Braun just has another monster year in 2011 which will make it easier for people to fathom that he has been clean. A couple of years of continued MVP caliber play and this offseason's story will only be an afterthought. Everybody has forgotten about Arod already. Braun will have to be the far and away easy choice to win MVP in the next couple of seasons though; if it is close like last year you damn well know the other guy will win.

[Funketown]

It will be much easier for Braun to be a consistent MVP contender with Pujols out of the league. That said, if he reverts to his typical .300/.375/.550 line you'll still hear people calling him out, saying he 'just can't do it now that he's clean'. I'm willing to be that if in April he struggles and goes something like .225/.300/.400 the excrement will indeed hit the fan in the media rooms.

[jeffy]

Despite his words to the contrary, it seems that Ryan has basically done to Dino what he says the testing and leak did to him.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/ryan-bruan-comments-challenged-collector-father-son-veteran-collector-baseball-season-spring-training-article-1.1028322?localLinksEnabled=false

 

If he did not want to blame the collector, Braun could have said that the collector believed that he was following the instructions he had been given by MLB, but that differed from the procedure that MLB and the players had agreed to and this deviation calls into question the validity of test results...or something like that.

 

Also not surprising that the poll there, being less dominated by Brewer fans, has 65% saying he got lucky and another 10% who don't care, quite different from the more local results in the J-S poll, where 80% think he is completely innocent.

[pebadger]

Braun did not directly accuse the collector of anything. That's in stark contrast to the situation occupied by Braun in which the unsupported accusation is the conviction for a massive swath of the population.

 

Here's a question. Instead of the media hounding Braun to explain the test result, why isn't the media hounding MLB to explain the test result? It's their test. Even if they answer "no comment", don't you still at least ASK the question? They know they aren't going to be getting an answer from Braun, yet they ask him the question (directly or in print) every 5 minutes. Somebody alert the world when anybody asks the same of the people that are actually responsible for conducting the test.

 

It's just baffling to me how so may people can just accept the fact that as soon as an accusation is made it's entirely on Braun to "clear his name", and that the only way he can do that is to somehow become omniscient about a test procedure that he did not perform and that was totally under the control of a party with interests adverse to his own. Does that make any sense at all?

 

Does it make any sense that, just because the rather one-sided drug testing system doesn't care about any forms of evidence other than their own test, that reasonable people can't evaluate the case by their own standards in coming to conclusions? Why would Braun cheat? What is the evidence other than a single test result, proven to have been procured outside the designed protocol, that indicates that Braun had any actual motive to cheat, much less anything close to even anecdotal evidence or performance-based evidence of cheating? To just brush these questions off with the implication that "all these guys cheat and they're both stupid an arrogant enough to think they can get away with it" is not only insulting to the vast majority of these guys who are not cheats, it's a dangerous manner of thinking in broader societal terms.

 

In the world of science, you must defend your results to show that they are reproducible. When your results are at odds with all other available information, most times people want you to prove that your results really are good. In this case MLB can't reproduce anything, because it is a one-shot deal. It has been proved that in performing their one-shot deal, MLB did not follow rules that are in place to enhance the validity of a test that can't be performed again. The procedures are MLB's safeguard for their data. In a real sense, the procedures ARE the case. The case comes down, by MLB's own design, to nothing more than them doing a science experiment. They can even be WRONG in their conclusions, provided they simply do the test according to the recipie, and they still win the case. And yet we still expect the one guy who did nothing more than provide the sample to be the one who has to explain, to a virtual certainty, all the million things that might have happened after he provided that sample. Am I wrong in thinking that seems to be entirely insane?

[theavrock]

No I have been thinking the same thing. My view is this.

 

I can't say unequivocally that he 100% never used a banned substance. But at the same point anyone who says he got lucky and he is for sure a cheater who got off on a technicality is ignoring the facts.

 

There is no way to know for sure. All we know as of now is that the process for preserving the integrity of Braun's sample was not followed. Further, it was not followed in a manner that led an independent arbitrator to be so in doubt that he did something that has never been done under the history of the testing policy ie: rule in favor of the player.

[pebadger]

Another thing while I'm riled up this morning. I keep seeing it mention that "there is no indication that this is a false positive" or words to that effect. Leaving aside the fact that we are not privy to any evidence regarding the test at all, other than the mere assertion that Braun is guilty, this is a sentence that betrays a fundamental lack of understanding of science.

 

Assume we run a test multiple times and get this dataset of results: 4.4, 5.0, 5.3, 5.4, 6.3, 7.9, 12.0. Assume that any result from 4.0 to 8.0 is a "positive" for whatever test we are running. Which one is the false positive?

 

The answer is that ANY of the first 6 results could be a false positive, and you simply don't know which one it is. The last data point is not a positive in any sense. The 7.9 is no more or less likely to be a false positive then the 5.4, provided you have a properly conducted test and properly constructed criteria for identifying a "positive". This is something the media and public quite simply do not grasp. They conflate the idea of an outlier and a false positive. Identifying a true false positive is difficult. Sometimes it's impossible. Even if you can eventually figure out that a result is a false positive, you may never know the WHY? If you can explain the WHY, and that "why" is a potentially recurring "why", you redesign/imporve the test to take into account the conditions that caused the false positive. This is how science works.

 

Note that a false positive is NOT generally a result that can simply be explained away by a cursory examination of the data. If you can look at a datapoint and immediately discern that it's wrong, you don't classify that result as positive simply because it fits the criteria You classify it as junk and throw it out because it's an invalid datapoint. People seem to think that Braun is truly innocent he should be able to simply look at Montreal's lab documentation and exclaim "Oh, you silly Canadians! You forgot to divide by X!" It's just not how it works. If it were that easy, they lab shouldn't be conducting the test because they're a terrible lab.

 

The entire burden of proving that an actual false positive is indeed false is on the player in a drug test situation. You can see how that is a virtual impossibility in a one-off situation. So we go way back to the question posed at the start of the original thread. Suppose you are Braun. Suppose you are actually truly innocent. How are you going to win the case?

 

He won it the best way he could. Probably the only way he could. People demanding more simply don't get it. If they don't get it because they don't have a full understanding of the nature of the game that's one thing. If they don't get it because of their own internal biases, that's something else entirely.

[molitor fan]

you are brilliant on this topic pebadger, keep it coming....wish you could have a direct counterpoint onto the bylines of these goofs like Tim Brown and Passan

[jeffy]

Braun did not directly accuse the collector of anything.

 

I didn't actually say he did, but he said:

 

“There were a lot of things that we learned about the collector...that made us very concerned and very suspicious about what could have actually happened,”

 

What does that imply? Does it imply that Braun believes Dino did nothing wrong?

 

Note that I'm not saying there is anything wrong with Braun giving that impression, if that is what he honestly believes...that he is suspicious of the collector based on the things they learned about him. I am just saying the consequences of these comments for Dino are very similar to the consequences Braun faced due to the leak, etc.

[Eye Black]

"According to Dan Patrick, the collector bypassed 2 open Fed Ex and then went to a 3rd and it was closed. So he went back and stored it. He is a Cubs fan, and during the appeal proccess they asked him to state his name, and it took 37 seconds for him to respond. They asked him to identify Braun, and couldn't look at him. Braun also passed a lie-dector test."

 

I found it interesting that Dan Patrick had such specific details about the case. He also said something to the effect of there being more to the story.

 

Arbitrator Shyam Das' written report is supposed to be released within the next week. I think this report will go along way in shaping my opinion of this case. Obviously he sided with Braun's legal team, but hopefully the report will clear up what level of doubt was raised by the sample collection procedure. His opinion could be anywhere from "simply the sample is invalid once it wasn't sent within 24 hours" to "some serious doubts were raised specific to the collector and the chain of custody".

[pebadger]

You are correct in that jeffy. I apologize if it seemed like I was coming across as hostile toward you, as I made roughly the same comment in the 'Identity' thread yesterday.

 

Dino is in the same general position as Braun. He is there either because he put himself there (through negligence or otherwise) or because of unfortunate circumstance. Recognizing that it could be either or for both of these guys, I wonder if the same people who will be sympathetic to the courier's situation will be equally sympathetic to Bruan's in the absence of any further facts.

[RockCoCougars]

The way I see it, you can't have it both ways. Either you believe that Braun juiced, or you believe that the collector was up to no good. I watched Braun's speech, and he all but directly accused the guy of tainting his test. It was really his only defense. It seems that a lot of people who believe that Braun is telling the truth are saying 'back off Dino', but I want to hear his side of the story.

[brwrsfan]

I haven't read the Caroll peice but from what I can gather from you guys, I'm pretty disappointed by it. I thought it would be someting that helped clear Braun (like duplicating the exact results for example by leaving it sit out). The fact that SI didn't want it, the fact that it wound up on Amazon for money and the fact that virtually nobody else has taken his information and ran with it all have me pretty concerned that it doesn't really say much to help Braun.

 

I think the press conference helped, but it still seems like most fans still think he got lucky.

[jeffy]

Regarding the FedEx open/closed issue. My understanding is the collector (and MLB) claim the issue was not whether the drop off places were open, it was that the samples would not ship until Monday.

 

Braun's side says the samples should have been left at FedEx and stored by them until Monday. MLB seems to be saying the normal procedure has been for the collector to keep them?

 

The arbitrator apparently either agreed with Braun's side that that is what the policy specifies or that, if the collector keeps them, he needs to have documentation of what he did with them, while they were in his custody to verify proper storage and security.

[pebadger]

I haven't read the Caroll peice but from what I can gather from you guys, I'm pretty disappointed by it. I thought it would be someting that helped clear Braun (like duplicating the exact results for example by leaving it sit out). The fact that SI didn't want it, the fact that it wound up on Amazon for money and the fact that virtually nobody else has taken his information and ran with it all have me pretty concerned that it doesn't really say much to help Braun.

 

I think the press conference helped, but it still seems like most fans still think he got lucky.

 

Yes, Carroll says his sources claim that Braun's people were able to recreate the result and presented that evidence to the panel. I don't want to run afoul of spilling too much of the beans in a copyrighted work that is currently clearly still in the marketplace. I wouldn't place too much weight on nobody else picking up on this. For now everything is in spin mode anyway. Sooner or later people will get access to more official documentation and then there will be a brief interruption in the bloviating so that actual facts can be released and subsequently spun.

[1992casey]

MLB's statement, the way I understood it, said that the collector didn't adhere to the policy set up by the MLB and the player's association, but he did adhere to the typical procedure set by most other organizations.

 

Braun's statement said that FedEx is well equipped to handle medical samples and that it would have been very safe for his sample to stay there from Saturday until Monday.

[theavrock]

Allegedly, the collector passed up two FedEx locations before going to a 3rd which wasn't shipping until Monday. Not sure if the other two would have been shipping, but if you are rushing to get something shipped why would you not go to the two closer ones?

 

Also the samples didn't make it to FedEx until 1:30 pm on Monday. Again, why have them in your possession for an extra half day? Let's say its ok that he hangs on to them until they can ship on Monday, why not get them in there right away in the morning?

 

I don't know that MLB claims this is the protocol, just that this has happened in the past. I think that damns MLB's testing even more. How is this good protocol? Get it to FedEx a business that is paid to keep these sorts of things, not some guys fridge or basement or wherever it is. ANy multitude of things could happen in that time as opposed to it being on lock down at a business like FedEx that will have some documentation.

 

The other issue that Braun correctly raises is this guy is the only guy who knows whose sample it is and it should be out of his hands ASAP.

 

FedEx can and often does handle these kinds of samples. Once it is out of his hands the chain of custody is on FedEx and more importantly the sample becomes anonymous.

[RockCoCougars]

On the other thread, I made the point that if the collector had violated MLB procedure by keeping the pee sample in his basement, he probably wouldn't be down at Spring Training right now.

[pebadger]

Regarding the FedEx open/closed issue. My understanding is the collector (and MLB) claim the issue was not whether the drop off places were open, it was that the samples would not ship until Monday.

 

Braun's side says the samples should have been left at FedEx and stored by them until Monday. MLB seems to be saying the normal procedure has been for the collector to keep them?

 

The arbitrator apparently either agreed with Braun's side that that is what the policy specifies or that, if the collector keeps them, he needs to have documentation of what he did with them, while they were in his custody to verify proper storage and security.

 

I think you are right as to MLB's argument, Jeffy but I also think it needs to be put into what I'm guessing is the proper context. My guess is that MLB only had to make that argument because Braun's side presented enough of a case to put MLB into the position of having to do extra work in proving that their errors didn't have any impact on the result. In other words, I think Braun's team made enough of a case to cause the presumption of guilt to go away. That in itself is no small achievement, and is likely not based solely on the simple "oops" defense. Obviously I can't say that for certain, but nobody can say for certain what happened when the sample was not sitting on a shelf at FedEx. MLB is simply arguing, in more words, that it shouldn't matter where the package was kept, despite the dictates of their own policy. They are arguing, in effect, that their rules don't matter, only the result does.

 

I personally don't think it's likely that there was a nefarious plot to get Braun on the part of the courier, but that doesn't mean that there aren't simply a whole lot of other things that might have happened in that time frame beyond the control of either of those parties that may have affected the subsequent result. It's MLB's rules. It's MLB's test procedure. They broke the rules. They should bear the burden of proof that their test result is valid even in light of the procedural violation. It's the only fair approach to the situation.

[thebruce44]

The way I see it, you can't have it both ways. Either you believe that Braun juiced, or you believe that the collector was up to no good.

 

I don't believe either to be the case. Can we just wait until we have all the scientific details?

[areacodes]

Braun's side says the samples should have been left at FedEx and stored by them until Monday. MLB seems to be saying the normal procedure has been for the collector to keep them?

 

The big part of this is that once at FedEx, nobody knows it is Braun's sample. When it stays at the collectors house, and his kid was the chaperone when Braun gave his sample, it opens up the possibility of tampering as well as potentially being mishandled.

 

Another thing, if Dino is in charge of collecting and sealing the sample, wouldn't he have the resources to reseal the sample? I think it would have been one thing if the sample had been collected by party A and then party B was in charge of delivering it to FedEx. Have there been any indications of how the sample is sealed? I thought I read it was sealed in the cup, in a bag and then in a box but if Dino is the one who is in charge of doing so, wouldn't he have extra cups, bags, and tamper-proof tape?

 

Lastly, MLB has repeatedly stated that the collector acted professionally and within the scope of the rules. If the rules state that, unless there are unusual circumstances, it is to be delivered to FedEx immediately, how is that possible? FedEx locations being closed, when there are available locations open, does not seem like unusual circumstances to me. I just don't understand how Rob Manfred and MLB can continue to say that there is nothing wrong on their end.

[AZBrewCrew]

Was Braun and the other 2 players the only ones tested or were all other 24 players tested? If so, I have a hard time believing this guy kept 25 urine specimens in his fridge/possession all weekend. Were the Diamondbacks players tested the same day as well? That being said, I jumped over to a Diamondbacks forum a bit ago and many are calling him a cheater, saying he only got off because he plays on "Bud's team" and that they plan to heckle him during ST.