Per ESPN: Braun Tests Positive, May Face 50 Game Suspension (Part 2)

[Nottso]

Okay.. you're selfish. I'm a human being first and a fan second.

Edit: spelling.

[pebadger]

OK, here is a second long post on the science/technology end of this stuff. Where I left off I posed the rhetorical question: What could possibly go wrong in such a simple process? I'm going to skip over all that stuff right now and avoid that question. Maybe I'll come back to it later.

 

Anyhow, what was described in the first post is what is known as the CIR (carbon isotope ratio) test, which has been referenced in a lot of posts upthread. If you read long post #1, you see that the test is aptly, if not especially creatively, named.

 

OK, let's assume we did all the stuff we need to do to get a CIR result.

 

The results of the CIR test are expressed in terms of the difference between the the amount of 13C found in a given metabolite and the amount that you would expect to find in nature on average, measured in parts per thousand (per mil). This difference is called a delta value. Since we usually find less 13C in testosterone than we would in nature, the delta13C is usually a negative value. And since we find even less 13C in synthetic T than we do in natural T, the delta13C for the synthetic is lower than for natural T.

 

Synthetic T is produced in a controlled, defined process from particular ingredients. As such, the delta13C for synthetic T usually falls into a tightly controlled range. Our bodies produce T from whatever ingredients it has on hand (in the form of cholesterol, most coming from the liver), so the natural production process is not as tightly controlled as you'd see in a factory. As a result, the delta13C for natural T has a wider range of variability. Delta13C for synthetic T usually ranges from about -28 to -30, while that for natural T ranges from about -20 to -26.

 

So how do you determine if a result is a "positive"? You compare the delta13C numbers from your test against the delta13C numbers from a standard reference sample. If the test 13C number is lower than the standard sample 13C number by a given amount, that test result is deemed to be a "positive" because it is presumed that the lower 13C is indicative of a synthetic origin. The "given amount" in the last sentence is called the "positivity criteria".

 

It should be apparent that the positivity criteria is a critical number in the whole procedure. How much of a difference between the test result and the standard is enough to confidently say that the test subject "used synthetic T"? The answer to that question depends on just how confident you want to be, which is not just a question of pure science, but a question of "law" as well.

 

Since T has multiple metabolites that pass out of the body through the urine, the CIR test usually examines the delta13C values of multiple metabolites. This usually helps to increase the confidence in the test result, as all the metabolites should have fairly similar delta13C values, since they were all produced by the same process from the same starting point. So you get four metabolites all showing similar delta values and all of them meet the positivity criteria. That's seen as the gold standard of proof that whoever provided the sample ingested synthetic T.

 

What happens though if the delta13C values of the various metabolites are NOT similar? What happens if you examine 4 metabolites and only one of them meets the positivity criteria? Did the guy take synthetic T or didn't he? Are you comfortable accusing him or not? Are you comfortable convicting him? From strictly a scientific standpoint, how do you arrive at a positivity criteria that is at least a better than 50/50 shot of correctly predicting that the metabolites came from synthetic T in the first place?

 

Another thing should also be apparent in all this. There is a lot of math involved, spcifically statistics. We obviously can't count every 13C and 12C atom to establish these ratios and arrive at "actual" delta values. All of these numbers are random variables derived from samples of the things we are looking at. So you have to seriously take into account concepts and sources of variance and variation in all these undertakings, not the least of which is measurement error.

 

I'm not posting this stuff to say "See. This stuff is so complicated there is no way they can get it right." That's not where I'm coming fron at all. Rather, I just want to highlight to a degree the complexities of the case.

 

I think it should be clear from these two posts that it's impossible to say with complete certainty that a person has taken synthetic T relying only on the results of a CIR test. We can have anything from a weak inkling to an exceptionally solid suspicion, depending on the results, but what we don't have is foolproof certainty.

 

Without knowing all the specifics of the data, it's impossible for any of us to know just where we should be on that contiuum with respect to Braun. Given the way these cases are decided, it's a good bet we won't have much better idea even after the appeal is adjudicated and the folks who know the least (on either side) are the ones yelling the loudest.

[Patrick425]

Okay.. you're selfish. I'm a human being first and a fan second.

Edit: spelling.

Human being? Has nothing to do with being a human being. Don't do the crime if you can't do the time. If I contracted an STD through carelessness or was fired for breaking a company policy, I really would not expect anyone to feel sorry for me. Not everyone that has a disease is a victim.

 

 

[thebruce44]

Okay.. you're selfish. I'm a human being first and a fan second.

Edit: spelling.

Human being? Has nothing to do with being a human being. Don't do the crime if you can't do the time. If I contracted an STD through carelessness or was fired for breaking a company policy, I really would not expect anyone to feel sorry for me. Not everyone that has a disease is a victim.

 

Practically everyone has herpes these days, relatively speaking its not that big of a deal. However, not many people have put up historically great baseball numbers only to have an astirks next to them. As a human first and fan second, I hope Braun has the herp.

[Nottso]

Obviously, we have very differing viewpoints as to what does and does not constitute humanity. I bet you guys are a riot at parties.

[monty57]

Practically everyone has herpes these days,

 

What???

[nate82]

More foolishness. This genius is trying to connect Braun's increases in SB and triples to PED use. No mention at all of the managerial change or the different philosophies in the running game used by those managers..

Bleacher Report is not a real sports reporting site. I don't believe anything they put on that site ever I will go to ESPN before I ever look at that site.

[pebadger]

Practically everyone has herpes these days,

 

What???

Every day brings a new angle to the question: What if I was born 20 years later?

[sdcheezhd]

Practically everyone has herpes these days,

 

What???

Every day brings a new angle to the question: What if I was born 20 years later?

Or 35.

 

So is having herpes like having a tattoo these days?

 

 

[RockCoCougars]

Practically everyone has herpes these days,

 

Which begs the question- if everyone has it, wouldn't you think that the testing system would have dealt with a similar issue before?

[dlk9s]

I know a girl that got herp from JJ Hardy.

http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/579/siren.gifBREAKING: JJ HARDY GAVE A GIRL HERPES http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/579/siren.gif

[PKBadger]

Practically everyone has herpes these days,

 

What???

Every day brings a new angle to the question: What if I was born 20 years later?

Or 35.

 

So is having herpes like having a tattoo these days?

 

 

You don't even understand, man. Herpes is so "mainstream" now that the hipsters are practicing safe sex just to seem different! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Nottso]

So is having herpes like having a tattoo these days?

I hope not. I've got a lot of tattoos.

[thebruce44]

Practically everyone has herpes these days,

 

What???

I may have exagerated for effect, but its a lot more common than people think. I think I've heard its like 1 in 5 sexually active adults.

[TheCrew07]

1 in 6

[homer]

I know a girl that got herp from JJ Hardy.

http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/579/siren.gifBREAKING: JJ HARDY GAVE A GIRL HERPES http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/579/siren.gif

Bob Madden's daughter?

[prophet]

Somewhere between 1 in 5 or 6 sounds right to me. At least that's what the commercials always say. So that means, on average, every team has about 4. If you factor in that it is more prevalent for men in the major league players age range, then it is probably higher.

[sargennm]

This thread is the best thing about the Brewers off season. Hands down.

[pebadger]

How to Do Drug Testing Incorrectly

 

Diana Taurasi is one of the more famous women's basketball players in the world. During the WNBA offseason last yeat, she played for a pro team in Turkey. During her time in Turkey, it was announced that that Taurasi had failed a drug test. It was alleged that her urine sample tested positive for modafinil, which is listed on the banned substances list due to stimulant qualities. Her Turkish team voided her contract based on the reported positive test. Taurasi denied that she had ever used modafinil and contested the finding.

 

The lab in Turkey that declared the positive did so on the strength of a gas chromatography (GC) anlaysis. GC is a powerful analytical technique that allows us to take a sample that contains multiple chemical compounds (urine, for example) and then separate and analyze those compounds individually. A GC analysis produces a chromatograph, a visual representation of the the various compounds present in the sample. Each substance in the sample appears on the graph as a peak, and these peaks are generally separated by valleys or flat lines between the peaks. A good GC analysis will generally yield a chromatograph with well-defined peaks that do not interfere with each other. In other words, you usually don't want peaks that look like a double-humped camel, or which might secretly stack on one another. This is especially true if you're going to do further analysis (such as getting a CIR result) based upon the GC results .

 

The way you determine if a GC test is a positive is to run a GC analysis of a "pure" sample of a given substance. This will provide you of a graph of that substance. You then do a run with the test sample and compare it to the first graph. If something comes out of the test sample that closely matches (in size, shape and its position on the x-axis) the graph of the "pure" control sample, the test sample most likely contains whatever it is you're looking for.

 

Here is a copy of the Taurasi GC result which was a delcared a positive.

 

http://www.euathletes.org...Diana_Taurasi_sample.pdf

 

Other than the fact that the alleged "positive" peak is tall, I have no idea how the lab thought this test supported reporting a positive modafinil test result given the standards for declaring a positive. In any event, they did, and Taurasi had to go through some public embarrasment before clearing her name.

 

How does this relate to Ryan Braun? It's pretty well established that Braun's sample was analyzed using GC at the Montreal lab as part of the CIR testing. This is the test that would identify exactly what substance is at issue in the test. It's still unclear from the public reporting as to what that substance is, the relationship between that substance and the reported presence of synthetic T, and whether the declaration of a positive is based upon the GC-identified substance, the presence of synthetic T, or both.

 

I have no doubt the Montreal lab did a better job than the Turkish lab (which has its WADA accreditation suspended in the wake of the Taurasi case). The Braun case would likely be gone already if it didn't. That said, I post this stuff for a couple of reasons:

 

1) There is room for interpretation in the GC results (apparently a LOT of room in Turkey), but that room shrinks in a well-performed test.

 

2) Even if you don't completely screw it up, even small problems with the GC test could have significant effects on the subusequent CIR results if you don't get good separation of peaks in your GC analysis.

 

Here's a big question: If the peak in Taurasi's test isn't indicative of modafinil, what is it? It's got to be something. That might be a question at issue in Braun's case, depending on exaclty what's going on with his specific data/results.

 

If Braun is alleged to have tested positive for a specific substance on the strength of the GC, and Braun is certain he didn't take that substance, then something else is creating a "signature" close enough to that of the prohibited substance that it looks like he took the prohibited substance. If the prohibited substance is not one that is associated with synthetic T, and yet the CIR result shows synthetic T, then you have a very weird and very real conundrum.

 

It remains to be seen whether Braun's peoples assertion that there are very unusual circumstances surrounding the test pans out or whether that's just PR spin. If it isn't spin, this is one scenario that might be in play. I don't know that it necessarily helps him all that much, since he's the one in the position of having to explain what might be inexplicable, but it could be something they are working on. Again, the dearth of solid facts available to us in this regard leaves us with nothing to further the discussion.

[AJAY]

If the stories I'm hearing from a couple different people are true, Braun is completely innocent. I can't say anything more because its something that shouldn't have gotten out to begin with.

Invader, there has been a lot of speculation on this forum about Braun having an STD. Can you confirm whether the stories you are hearing are related to the STD issue, or is everyone on this forum way off target in their speculation. I have not seen you acknowledge whether the STD discussion is on track or not.

 

Is there some other explanation that you are aware of?

[Invader3K]

No, what I heard was along the same lines. The first couple things I heard were very convincing. Now it seems like this rumor has run off the rails. Not sure what to think at this point, to be honest.

[pitchleague]

How does this relate to Ryan Braun? It's pretty well established that Braun's sample was analyzed using GC at the Montreal lab as part of the CIR testing. This is the test that would identify exactly what substance is at issue in the test. It's still unclear from the public reporting as to what that substance is, the relationship between that substance and the reported presence of synthetic T, and whether the declaration of a positive is based upon the GC-identified substance, the presence of synthetic T, or both.

Don't worry, I'm sure ESPN will leak this information out any day now . . . . http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif

[zzzmanwitz]

I agree completely. This thread had turned into largely discussions of completely baseless rumors and suddenly everyone in the state seems to know someone who knows. Let's keep this discussion about the actual issue and not a myriad if rumors please.

 

The problem is that no one knows what the actual issue is. I wish that we could just talk about the actual facts, but there are so few facts to work with, rumors are going to form and be spread. Its human nature.

 

I will get in line with most of the people before me, at this point, I don't care what he has done or had done, both on and off the field. I'm not his friend and he doesn't know who I am. I am a fan of the Brewers and as a Brewers fan, it is in my best interest for him to do what he does best, hit a baseball. The only thing that makes me upset is that he may be missing 50 games, which will hurt my team. I will continue to hold out hope that his appeal will be granted and we will have him for a full 162 games. All indications are that he is a great guy and does great things in the city of Milwaukee. I will forever be thankful that he is a Brewer and will continue to support him for many years to come.

[GoudaBrew]

I'd really like to believe the herpes defense, but this is the exact type of thing that Deadspin would just love to post about and update 3-4 times a day. It sounds silly, but if they haven't run with this by now they must have some serious doubts about this defense. All they would need is a ONE semi-believable source and they would throw some speculation up on their site while going fishing for better sources. Prime example:

 

http://deadspin.com/5867461/did-tim-tebow-break-up-lindsey-vonns-marriage

[RayKingsForemanGrill]

I work in PR for a living. This thread is like a little petri dish highlighting the importance of getting out in front of a story with a specific response/explanation. If there's not an official story to tell, others will make up the story for you. And it devolves, devolves, devolves...