Per ESPN: Braun Tests Positive, May Face 50 Game Suspension (Part 2)

[chadomac]

"The waiting is the hardest part."

[Raw Biz]

This still sickens me. Braun had so much to lose and very little to gain by cheating. No more MVPs...possibly no All Star selection, no statue outside Miller Park, no number retired, lose endorsement deals, jeapordize his restaurants and other businesses...and most importantly, no chance of ever making the HOF. He slapped the Brewers franchise in the face and all of his fans and supporters.

I think it's a tad early for this. We have to at least wait until the appeal process, all the facts come out and we can really hear the entire story, whatever it may be.

Exactly. Until we have all the facts, there's really no way we can truly pass judgment.

[Invader3K]

This still sickens me. Braun had so much to lose and very little to gain by cheating.

This is why I'm inclined to think something screwed up happened, or the test was just flat out wrong. The guy is already signed for basically the rest of his career. I really doubt he'd risk his reputation and future endorsement deals just to hit a couple more home runs a season or whatever.

[Nottso]

Well, that tears it. If I'm the defendant, and I see any BF.Net gear on the jury, I'll just go ahead and strap myself into the electric chair.

[fondybrewfan]

Well, that tears it. If I'm the defendant, and I see any BF.Net gear on the jury, I'll just go ahead and strap myself into the electric chair.

Same goes for 99% of the rest of the country. This isn't the justice system. All we know right now is that he screwed up and the burden of proof is on him to prove he didn't.

 

 

[patrickgpe]

since the appeal process is not complete this may be too early, but the OF of Gomez in left, morgan in center, and hart in right isn't awful. it would be the best defensive OF in the NL atleast, while obviously loosing tons of power. once the list of players that were non-tendered comes out tonight, hopefully there is a vet or 2 that the brewers can pick up for insurance.

[gregmag]

Sure it's bad for the player, but it's far worse for the sport........ if you can get past the fandom of Braun/Brewers, it's pretty clear to see that.

I'm really getting tired of the "I'm more impartial than you" refrain that keeps creeping into various posts. You don't have any special claim to impartiality. You have a point, a good point to a very limited extent, IMHO. I agree with you that the objective harm from this could be worse for the sport than for Ryan Braun. More to the point, MLB -- the integrity of the game -- is a lot more important than Ryan Braun, so we have good reason to care more about the interest of MLB.

 

But you haven't made anything approaching a persuasive case that the leak came from Braun's camp. You've just tossed off some assertions that toe the line you've been arguing this whole thread. From what I can see, it would have been extraordinary for anybody in any camp to leak this for well-considered strategic reasons. As somebody suggested above, the likeliest explanation is that somebody with knowledge just mouthed off for petty personal reasons, or for no reason at all. Once that pinprick of a leak happens, responsible people from any camp may feel a responsibility to corroborate or correct the initial report.

 

I'm not by any means dismissing the possibility that the leak was strategic, or that it came from Braun's camp. Those possibilities should absolutely be part of the investigation. But to claim that anyone who doesn't buy this particular theory can't see past their fandom is way off base.

[TheCrew]

I'm really getting tired of the "I'm more impartial than you" refrain that keeps creeping into various posts. You don't have any special claim to impartiality. You have a point, a good point to a very limited extent, IMHO. I agree with you that the objective harm from this could be worse for the sport than for Ryan Braun. More to the point, MLB -- the integrity of the game -- is a lot more important than Ryan Braun, so we have good reason to care more about the interest of MLB.

 

But you haven't made anything approaching a persuasive case that the leak came from Braun's camp. You've just tossed off some assertions that toe the line you've been arguing this whole thread. From what I can see, it would have been extraordinary for anybody in any camp to leak this for well-considered strategic reasons. As somebody suggested above, the likeliest explanation is that somebody with knowledge just mouthed off for petty personal reasons, or for no reason at all. Once that pinprick of a leak happens, responsible people from any camp may feel a responsibility to corroborate or correct the initial report.

 

I'm not by any means dismissing the possibility that the leak was strategic, or that it came from Braun's camp. Those possibilities should absolutely be part of the investigation. But to claim that anyone who doesn't buy this particular theory can't see past their fandom is way off base.

I wasn't trying to claim that at all - the leak very well could have come from MLB, it really doesn't make sense for either side to leak it. There are no winners here......... that's why in a latter post, I asked if it even matters where the leak came from?

 

It's HUGE for the sport - go look at the front page of the USA today if you don't believe me, Braun on the cover with part of the headline reading "steriod era revisited" - http://www.newseum.org/to...ame=USAT&ref_pge=lst

 

This is much bigger than Braun at this point because if he is guilty, he's likely been juicing the whole time and likely isn't the only one............... it invalidates EVERYTHING MLB has done and makes the sport look like a complete joke. My post really wasn't about agreeing with my POV, it's that people really need to take a step back and look at how much bigger this is than the Brewers RF'er. Yeah, I'm getting ahead of things and all this is based on an 'if he is guilty' sentiment........ but I just don't like how this sets up for MLB at all, like I said: No winners here.

[TooLiveBrew]

You know what really irks me (beyond the obvious) about this Braun fiasco? Aside from that, I've been loving this offseason. Gonzalez for SS, Ramirez for 3B... if I didn't know any better, I'd think I was a fan of a big-market team.

 

I've even been enjoying following Prince's FA journey. Not enjoying that he's leaving, but just that I wish him the best & look forward to seeing where he winds up.

[hawing]

With apologies in case this has already been explained in this thread...what warrants a 25 game vs. 50 game suspension?

[owbc]

This is much bigger than Braun at this point because if he is guilty, he's likely been juicing the whole time and likely isn't the only one............... it invalidates EVERYTHING MLB has done and makes the sport look like a complete joke. My post really wasn't about agreeing with my POV, it's that people really need to take a step back and look at how much bigger this is than the Brewers RF'er. Yeah, I'm getting ahead of things and all this is based on an 'if he is guilty' sentiment........ but I just don't like how this sets up for MLB at all, like I said: No winners here.

It wouldn't invalidate everything MLB has done, it would vindicate it. It would be yet another huge victory for Selig. The only one who ends up looking awful is Braun, for having the arrogance to think that he could get away with it. Of course there might be others out there, but the general consensus is that the steroid testing is working--and Braun's case just might have proved it.

 

Far worse for MLB is the possibility of a successful appeal by Braun. In that case, the storyline would become one of two options:

1) If Braun is telling the truth, then there are major inconsistencies in the drug testing policy that may compromise its integrity

2) If Braun is lying, then a wealthy superstar player can hire a big name lawyer and escape suspension

[monty57]

The thought that one "side" decided to strategically make this public doesn't make much sense. Neither Braun nor the MLB nor the testing group want this made public until all of the appeals are heard.

 

If it came from "Braun's group," it would have probably been someone outside his "circle of advisors" with whom Braun discussed this. If this is the case, Braun is probably kicking himself for trusting this person, but there's really no legal recourse... in essense, if Braun was speaking about this with anyone other than his representatives, MLB reps or the testing facility, then he is technically the one who leaked the information. Anyone he would have told would not be bound by any confidentiality agreements.

 

If it came from the MLB or the testing group, it wouldn't have been a group decision to leak it to the press. Rather, it would have been someone acting on their own volition, whether for monetary gain or out of misguided moral principle. If a person with confidential information in one of these camps leaked this information, there would be potential criminal charges against the individual, and civil charges against the individual and the group (MLB or the testing company). Leaking confidential medical records isn't a small thing. We're talking about potential millions of dollars in lost future revenues because of this. If he is innocent, this leak has royally screwed Braun.

 

Now that it's out there, I hope that Braun can prove his innocence. If I had to bet, I'd bet he'll be suspended, but I'll wait until he's suspended before casting any stones in his direction.

[monty57]

With apologies in case this has already been explained in this thread...what warrants a 25 game vs. 50 game suspension?

 

 

I'm not 100% on this, but I believe it's whether the "Baseball Gods" consider the product a "banned substance" (25 games) or a performance enhancing drug (50 games)

[The Truth]

With apologies in case this has already been explained in this thread...what warrants a 25 game vs. 50 game suspension?

I believe 25 games is for stimulants/marijuana whereas 50 games is for steroids

[GoudaBrew]

I haven't seen this posted here yet, but Baseball Prospectus has a nice collection and run-down of the events that have transpired.

 

LINK

 

Of note:

 

As accurate as the second test may be, the sheer volume of the testing still creates the possibility of false positives. According to the Associated Press' Ronald Blum,

MLB conducted 3,868 in-season tests in 2011, up from 3,747 tests in

2010. Supposing a nine percent false positive on the first test, that

would be 348 false positives in 2011. If the false positive rate of the

GC-IRMS is even one percent, that's still roughly three players per year

getting popped. If it's 0.3 percent, that's one player per year — one

unlucky SOB. Braun and company aren't claiming that's what happened in

this case, but in the general discussion of the process, it's worth

bearing that in mind.

 

 

Update (7.1): On the Brewers Fandemonium bulletin board

(scroll down to post #471), someone posting under the name of “Mass

Haas” dug up a 2007 Huntsville Times article regarding minor league

outfielder Brendan Katin, who was briefly suspended and then unsuspended: “Katin's

initial test showed a higher level of testosterone than normal. Upon

further review, the lab guys "determined that my high level did not

constitute a positive result (for steroids)," he said.” The article

doesn’t include much more detail than that, though afollow-up that ran today includes this:

Former [Huntsville] Stars first baseman Brendan Katin,

a teammate of Braun at the University of Miami, was briefly suspended

in 2007 when a test revealed a higher level of testosterone than normal.

Katin entered an appeal and was allowed to play while the decision was

pending. The findings were reviewed and, more than three months later,

it was "determined that my high level did not constitute a positive

result (for steroids)," he told The Times in September 2007.

 

Because Katin was a minor leaguer at the time, his result is likely

not included in MLB’s supposedly spotless record of appeals, but it’s

apparent that such a record is a very carefully qualified statement. It

would be great if a reporter digs into the Katin angle to provide more

detail.

 

[Warning Track Power]

I haven't yet posted on the Braun PED topic until now but I think one of the more fascinating angles in this whole thing is the two polar extremes of what the end result of this will be:

 

The guilty angle:

Braun's positive test was the highest ever recorded since testing began. From what my knowledge is on the subject, that means Braun is the biggest "known" substance abuser in MLB history.A truly sad day for all Brewer fans. If true, how long as he been doing it and what kind of player will we be locked into until 2020 once he returns after the 50 game suspension.

 

The innocent angle:

Braun's test was a false positive and he will be cleared of all wrong doing. A truly bittersweet day for all Brewer fans as he will vindicated in our eyes, but unfortunately will have his name forever linked to PEDs or whatever he supposedly tested positive for.

 

What will be fascinating is if he is proven to be innocent and if MLB issues some sort of apology clearing him of all charges.

[pebadger]

Discipline is dependant on the offense:

 

For PEDs:

 

First offense: 50 games.

Second offense: 100 games

Third: Lifetime ban (with procedures for reinstatement)

 

For Stimulants:

 

1st: Follow up testing

2nd: 25 games

3rd: 80 games

4th: per Commisioner, up to and including lifetime ban

 

Criminal Conviction for Possession/Use of Prohibited Substance:

 

1st: 60-80 game for PED, 15-30 Drug of Abuse

2nd: 120 game - 1yr for PED, 30-90 DoA

3rd: Ban, 1 year, respectively

 

There are separate provisions for DEALING drugs and for violating the terms of a treatment program.

 

Note that marijuana is dealt with differently:

 

"A Player on the Administrative Track for the use or possession of marijuana shall not be subject to suspension. The Player will be subject to fines, which shall be progressive and which shall not exceed $25,000 for any particular violation. Notwithstanding the foregoing, a Player who participates in the sale or distribution (as those terms are used in the criminal code) of marijuana will be subject to the discipline set forth in Section 8.E above."

 

All this stuff is sourced from the PDF link I posted upthread.

[pebadger]

What will be fascinating is if he is proven to be innocent and if MLB issues some sort of apology clearing him of all charges.

Will never happen. Zach Lund, the US winter olympian I posted about upthread who was suspended before the Turin games despite everyone knowing he wasn't a cheater and did not intend to violate the rules, asked that his record be cleared after serving his 1-year suspension. He thought WADA might acceed to his request since they themselves took the non-PED substance for which he was suspended off the list of banned substances subsequent to his suspension. They refused.

Such is the mindset of crusaders.

[TheCrew]

It wouldn't invalidate everything MLB has done, it would vindicate it. It would be yet another huge victory for Selig. The only one who ends up looking awful is Braun, for having the arrogance to think that he could get away with it. Of course there might be others out there, but the general consensus is that the steroid testing is working--and Braun's case just might have proved it.

 

Far worse for MLB is the possibility of a successful appeal by Braun. In that case, the storyline would become one of two options:

1) If Braun is telling the truth, then there are major inconsistencies in the drug testing policy that may compromise its integrity

2) If Braun is lying, then a wealthy superstar player can hire a big name lawyer and escape suspension

I agree with you on the 2nd half, hate to beat a dead horse but: No winners in this.

 

In regards to the first half - I think people will ultimately look at it and ask why it took so long to catch him. If he's guilty, it's obvious this didn't start this past summer.

[pebadger]

In regards to the first half - I think people will ultimately look at it and ask why it took so long to catch him. If he's guilty, it's obvious this didn't start this past summer.

Not necessarily. If he is guilty he may well have started taking something in an effort to deal with nagging oblique and leg injuries.

[RockCoCougars]

My sources say the explanation for the absurdly high testosterone is quite simple. Braun shook hands with Chuck Norris before one of the playoff games. Photographic evidence will exonerate him.

[Bench Coach]

This still sickens me. Braun had so much to lose and very little to gain by cheating. No more MVPs...possibly no All Star selection, no statue outside Miller Park, no number retired, lose endorsement deals, jeapordize his restaurants and other businesses...and most importantly, no chance of ever making the HOF. He slapped the Brewers franchise in the face and all of his fans and supporters.

I think that is the point here. He had so much to lose. Yes he was the type that wanted to be the best and never doubted his ability, but why risk this. It doesn't add up. He could have been king of this city. Right there with Yount, maybe even greater by the time it was all said and done. Doing something like this and risk getting caught just doesn't make sense. He is smart enough to know the ramifications if he were to get caught. No chance at the hall of fame, no All-Star games, those are things that I am sure are goals of his. No reason to risk it. Is he really that stupid?

 

 

[jazzytrav]

Not sure if any version of this has been said yet, but I think this MLB perfect record against appeals could work in his favor. I don't think his ability will change whatsoever...what he needs is for his reputation to be restored. It may never be as clean as it was a few weeks ago, but if he's able to be the only player to successfully appeal this, then it would seem pretty obvious to me that he's not guilty and this was just a major lab blunder.

 

And if that ends up being the case, I hope he never does another interview with ESPN.

[JimH5]

I wonder if Braun's team leaked the stuff to ESPN.

 

If they thought it was sure that he would lose his appeal, then wouldn't this be the time to get the word out, to make ESPN the goat. . . or the lab, or the testing process?

 

It's just speculation, for sure. . .just wondering how I would handle it if it was me.

 

MLB won't talk for another month, so until then, Braun's team has the ability to paint their client in a favorable light. . .

 

[Team Canada]

I thought this was a pretty remarkable table from Stark's latest article:

 

CATEGORY 2011 AVERAGE SEASON HR 33 32 Extra-base hits 77 75 Doubles 38 37 Runs 109 101 RBIs 111 106

Braun is good, October PED test or no (and clearly this is far from the first test he's ever taken).