Per ESPN: Braun Tests Positive, May Face 50 Game Suspension… (Part 3, Appeal underway)

[brettac1]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/137973623.html

 

Patrick clarifies Braun comments

 

By Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel

 

National sports commentator/broadcaster Dan Patrick did some backtracking on his radio show Tuesday morning regarding comments he made Monday.

 

On Monday, Patrick said after talking to "somebody involved in the process" that Braun could be "exonerated" and "may be an innocent man" after appealing a reported positive drug test Thursday and Friday before a three-man arbitration panel.

 

On Tuesday, Patrick reworded his comments about the situation in an interesting way.

 

"I want to clarify something I said about Ryan Braun yesterday," said Patrick. "What I should have said is he could be found not guilty.

 

"I said (Monday) that Ryan Braun could be, COULD BE, found innocent. The test could be thrown out. I'm getting bits and pieces of what's going on behind the scenes. We've been waiting for information on this.

 

"If they throw out the test, now this is IF, he could be found not guilty, not innocent. Maybe it's semantics, but I want to correct myself with that. I think there's a little bit more to the story here.

 

"Once again, he could be found not guilty, not necessarily innocent."

 

Interesting change in words, isn't it? Patrick decided to switch from "innocent" to "not guilty" in referring to Braun's drug test and subsequent appeal hearing. Sounds as if he might have heard from somebody in the MLB heirarchy after his Monday comments, doesn't it?

 

What is the difference between "innocent" and "not guilty," you might ask? Well, Braun could have unknowingly taken a banned substance that triggered a positive test. Thus, he would be innocent of intentional wrong-doing but guilty of having a banned substance in his system. MLB's drug policy has a "strict liability" mandate in which players are not absolved of a positive drug test merely for taking a banned substance unknowingly.

 

Patrick also made reference to not hearing the appeal result before the Super Bowl (on Feb. 5), but I'm not sure how he could know the time frame. The arbitration panel has 25 days from the end of the two-day hearing last week but could announce its finding any time before that.

 

This is the problem when a supposed confidential process doesn't remain confidential. Too many things have been leaked to too many people, with anyone's guess as to the legitimacy of the information. It's too bad this is the way it played out, but you can't put the genie back in the bottle now.

[brwrsfan]

I think we all saw those Patrick comments. He didn't back off his stance at all or say his source was wrong. All he did was say that Braun might be "not guilty" as opposed to Braun is "innocent". Slightly different but not overlyso.

[brettac1]

I think both sets of comments are useless, anyhow. Anyone could say he "might be found innocent" or "might be found not guilty".

[brwrsfan]

That's what I'm saying. Both comments are virtually the same, the only difference is that when DP said it, he was quoting "a source close to the situation" or something to that effect. ESPN on the other hand is just making statements without saying they have a source or any knowledge of it, just making blanket statements. There is a difference there IMO.

[Invader3K]

It probably doesn't mean a lot, but Lance Allen had this tidbit from his blog:

 

http://www.todaystmj4.com/blogs/lanceallan/139411158.html

 

A source very close to Braun told me Wednesday that Braun is "100 percent innocent," yet the same source isn't sure that Major League Baseball will see it that way, and fears he might not be able to avoid a suspension.

 

And now only one thing is clear...that the Brewers don't know much more than we do.

 

With GM Doug Melvin already in Phoenix for Spring Training, I had the chance to talk one-on-one with Brewers assistant GM Gord Ash. And when I asked Gord if the he and the organization were on pins and needles to finally find out what happens with Braun, Gord didn't hesitate.

 

"We are certainly in an anticipating mood. I mean clearly this has gone on a long time," Gord expressed. "But on the other hand, we don't have a role in this. The club has not been privy to anything that's been discussed."

[jazzytrav]

I think both sets of comments are useless, anyhow. Anyone could say he "might be found innocent" or "might be found not guilty".

 

There's a 50% chance of rain today.

[jjfanec]

I am somewhat surprised MLB didnt try to move this process along a little quicker once everything got leaked. The news broke on Dec 10th (and they knew well before that). It took a long time to set up the arbitration panel and now the decision is taking a long time as well. You would have thought they would have wanted this handled much faster. I know they want to be thorough (or at least perceived to be thorough) but considering this whole decision is coming down to one guy I just cant fathom why it is taking this long. At the same time I guess I am glad they didn't rush to a decision.

[JJHardy7]

That's what I'm saying. Both comments are virtually the same, the only difference is that when DP said it, he was quoting "a source close to the situation" or something to that effect. ESPN on the other hand is just making statements without saying they have a source or any knowledge of it, just making blanket statements. There is a difference there IMO.

 

My point is we don't know if ESPN has a source or doesn't. If they do, is it a reliable source? We don't know. To just assume it's garbage isn't right IMO. If he doesn't get suspended, then ESPN and any other reporter was wrong.

 

We don't know a lot...I don't think it's fair to think everything we hear is garbage until there is a verdict and Braun speaks. I know ESPN is the most hated thing on the board, but that doesn't mean they or any other reporter is making things up. Like I said, I would find it really, really hard to believe one person in the universe knows which way this is leaning. Braun himself probably has a feeling of which way it'll go...he probably talks to people...they probably talk to people, etc.

[Nottso]

Perhaps the length of time involved here has to do with further and/or more precise testing, not only to Braun's sample, but to the 2 "mystery Brewers'" samples as well. Possibly even further sampling of Braun in an attempt to recreate the exact conditions present at the time of the failed test.

[Patrick425]

Perhaps the length of time involved here has to do with further and/or more precise testing, not only to Braun's sample, but to the 2 "mystery Brewers'" samples as well. Possibly even further sampling of Braun in an attempt to recreate the exact conditions present at the time of the failed test.

 

You mean like wind speed, noise level, etc?

 

Not trying to be a wise guy, and maybe I don't understand the complete dynamics of the tests, but I just don't understand what conditions could be variable from test to test.

[brwrsfan]

If Braun comes in and says that he took some combination of pills that were legal but it spiked a positive test, and he could prove it by retaking that same combination of legal stuff, with the same ridiculously high result, maybe he could get off that way? Seems far fetched though.

[monty57]

Perhaps the length of time involved here has to do with further and/or more precise testing, not only to Braun's sample, but to the 2 "mystery Brewers'" samples as well. Possibly even further sampling of Braun in an attempt to recreate the exact conditions present at the time of the failed test.

 

You mean like wind speed, noise level, etc?

 

Not trying to be a wise guy, and maybe I don't understand the complete dynamics of the tests, but I just don't understand what conditions could be variable from test to test.

 

Maybe the tester was a Cardinals fan, and the unfathomably high test results stemmed from someone "spiking" the sample. Maybe the person who was supposed to clean the sample jars forgot and Braun's sample was in a jar was recently used by someone from the WWE. Maybe someone had a lot of money on the series, and paid someone to tamper.

 

At some point, a human has to be involved in the testing, so therefore there could be human error (or malice) involved. Maybe not likely, but possible.

[Patrick425]

Perhaps the length of time involved here has to do with further and/or more precise testing, not only to Braun's sample, but to the 2 "mystery Brewers'" samples as well. Possibly even further sampling of Braun in an attempt to recreate the exact conditions present at the time of the failed test.

 

You mean like wind speed, noise level, etc?

 

Not trying to be a wise guy, and maybe I don't understand the complete dynamics of the tests, but I just don't understand what conditions could be variable from test to test.

 

Maybe the tester was a Cardinals fan, and the unfathomably high test results stemmed from someone "spiking" the sample. Maybe the person who was supposed to clean the sample jars forgot and Braun's sample was in a jar was recently used by someone from the WWE. Maybe someone had a lot of money on the series, and paid someone to tamper.

 

At some point, a human has to be involved in the testing, so therefore there could be human error (or malice) involved. Maybe not likely, but possible.

 

Yes, however, how could they "recreate" any of that? Ask a Cards fan to test him? Ask someone to spike his sample? Use an "unclean" jar from a WWE wrestler? What would any of this prove?

[Schlitz001]

If Braun comes in and says that he took some combination of pills that were legal but it spiked a positive test, and he could prove it by retaking that same combination of legal stuff, with the same ridiculously high result, maybe he could get off that way? Seems far fetched though.

There is no substance that would lead to a positive test of synthetic testosterone that is legal for players to take. If Braun was taking some form of synthetic testosterone without the consent of MLB, then that would be a violation of the rules. In theory, something like alcohol consumption could skew a carbon isotope test for exogenous testosterone, but not enough to skew the results to what ESPN has been reporting.

 

EDIT: http://www.tomsarazac.com/tom/opinions/testosterone_d13C.html This is a link to a blurb about alcohol and synthetic T. The author is as much of an expert as I am, so take it with a grain of salt.

[Oldcity]

If some of these recent reports that "Braun is innocent but might still be suspended anyway" come to fruition, it's going to be pretty difficult to keep a positive attitude about it. We probably should be glad his name will be cleared, but it will more likely be anger toward what could be something of an unjust suspension.

[MJLiverock]

I think Oldcity's post sums up my feelings on what will happen. Braun will get suspending regardless of the reasons because baseball won't want to look like they let off a star player or admit their testing system was flawed. Meanwhile behind the scenes they will go about tweaking whatever it was that caused the positive or slightly change some minor language on the rules.

 

Braun's camp and fans will loudly proclaim the suspension is unjustified and dump all the data regarding it into the public eye. Non Brewer fans won't care and will label him a juicer in the likes of Canseco, just like we would have if the same happened to Pujols. MLB will just keep a no comment status on the noise and questions about the positive while not stopping from Braun from pleading his case to public either.

 

Sort of like how no matter how many times it gets shown that instant reply on HR's, fair/foul, outs at the plate, etc. in playoff games make a difference, MLB for years said, "Well they get it right most of the time" as a defense for refusing to change despite obvious errors. Baseball will make changes but not retroactive to fix the Braun situation and won't make public on their own or relate those changes to Braun's case.

[Warning Track Power]

Regardless of the outcome, I wonder what this will do for Braun's HOF chances? Even if suspended, let's say he puts the exact same type of numbers up that he has already for the next 6 seasons. According to Baseball Reference, his 162 game average is .312, 36 HR, 118 RBI 200 H. Assuming he puts up numbers close to this for the next 6 seasons (through 2017 season when Braun will be 34), his career totals would be 377 HR, 1,239 RBI & 2,098 H. Obviously those numbers wouldn't get him to the HOF but he would only be 34 at that point and still likely to be playing at a higher level.

 

Just for fun let's assume he plays until 40 and for the last 6 seasons he averages 20 HR, 85 RBI & 170 H per season. Those last 5 seasons when added to his peak until 34 would give him career totals of 497 HR, 1,749 RBI & 3,118 H.

 

In spite of his suspension in 2012 does he still make the HOF?

[Nottso]

Perhaps the length of time involved here has to do with further and/or more precise testing, not only to Braun's sample, but to the 2 "mystery Brewers'" samples as well. Possibly even further sampling of Braun in an attempt to recreate the exact conditions present at the time of the failed test.

 

You mean like wind speed, noise level, etc?

 

Not trying to be a wise guy, and maybe I don't understand the complete dynamics of the tests, but I just don't understand what conditions could be variable from test to test.

Variables like a cortisone shot to the knee, or a synthetic steroid like (I think) medrol, prednisone for any number of reasons, combinations of other legal drugs, certain foods, supplements, etc. I would think that if Braun's team can show the same weird result through strictly legal things, MLB would then almost have to run those same tests. All of which takes time. Or maybe they're eating ice cream.

[JackNicholson1974]

Friday June 2nd, vs. Pirates. If Braun is suspended that is the first home game back for him, game #52, so there is even room for one rainout. I wonder if demand ticket prices will be in effectfor that one.

[Raw Biz]

Yeah, I couldnt figure out how to transport RyDogg66, so alas, I had to retire that nickname, RyDogg had been with this site since the beginning.

 

There was a way to transfer names and number of posts. You could even change user names and keep the number of posts if you wanted. You just had to email "reunite@BREWERFAN.NET" and ask for login info.

[JackNicholson1974]

Ahh, I should have done that, oh well, I dont mind starting over.

[pebadger]

If Braun comes in and says that he took some combination of pills that were legal but it spiked a positive test, and he could prove it by retaking that same combination of legal stuff, with the same ridiculously high result, maybe he could get off that way? Seems far fetched though.

There is no substance that would lead to a positive test of synthetic testosterone that is legal for players to take. If Braun was taking some form of synthetic testosterone without the consent of MLB, then that would be a violation of the rules. In theory, something like alcohol consumption could skew a carbon isotope test for exogenous testosterone, but not enough to skew the results to what ESPN has been reporting.

 

EDIT: http://www.tomsarazac.com/tom/opinions/testosterone_d13C.html This is a link to a blurb about alcohol and synthetic T. The author is as much of an expert as I am, so take it with a grain of salt.

 

I think a clarifiction is in order here. I don't believe we have heard any information on the specific results of the CIR testing in terms of positivity criteria. When the intial report came out that Braun had a very high testosterone level, I'm virtually certain that the report was referring to a high T/E ratio on the preliminary "tripwire" test, which is a different test than the CIR. Any number of things can send a T/E ratio out of whack, which is why the testers rely on GC-CIR to really nail down a violation. It's harder to really jack up a CIR positive. There simply isn't that much C13 out there in relation to C12, even in manufactured substances. If a CIR test comes back with a delta value well beyond the level of a normal positive, that would tend to indicate that the result is probably unreliable because it is either a statistical anomaly or simply a botched test. If the info that Braun tested postive for something that is neither a steroid nor a masking agent is correct, I'd love to see exactly what the positivity criteria were on the CIR.

 

As the link notes, and as I've posted before, making the claim that a CIR test is a positive is still a purely statistical conclusion, though most often a very compelling conclusion. At some point, however, when none or few of the other facts tend to support the conclusion suggested by the statistical result, a reasonable person has to at least pause before relying only on the statistics to destroy a man's reputation.

[JackNicholson1974]

From Rotoworld:

 

According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, Ryan Braun could report to Brewers' camp without a resolution on his PED appeal case.

Passan was told that the hope is there will be a resolution by next week, though it may not happen until the week after. Braun is scheduled to report to Brewers' camp on February 24. He will be able to participate in spring training games regardless of whether his 50-game suspension sticks.

[jjfanec]

From Rotoworld:

 

According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, Ryan Braun could report to Brewers' camp without a resolution on his PED appeal case.

Passan was told that the hope is there will be a resolution by next week, though it may not happen until the week after. Braun is scheduled to report to Brewers' camp on February 24. He will be able to participate in spring training games regardless of whether his 50-game suspension sticks.

 

I just dont understand what is taking so long. I am sure pe or someone else understands the whole process better but I just dont get it. Could someone explain to me why there is such a hold-up in this case? I know the 25 days is more for the regular season but you would think that since this leaked out they would like to wrap it up as soon as they can.

[ilovebeer]

If Ryan is found innocent, there is no way he will be suspended, the players union or Ryan himself would not go along with that.