Designated Yost Thread... Latest: No accountability and lack of urgency (part 5)

[TooLiveBrew]

But in this case it meant putting the potential winning run on base, as opposed to having him have to earn his way aboard. I hear you on the force out, but I'm not sure which the proper move is/was.

[Fatter than Joey]

But in this case it meant putting the potential winning run on base, as opposed to having him have to earn his way aboard.

 

??

 

It was 3-3 in the bottom of the 9th -- the winning run was already on 2nd. -- Unless we are talking about a different time.

[olliegjw]

Batting Torres was dumb.

Brewers already had the lead, and Torres is their closer. He was the best pitching option to seal the victory. I had no problem with the move.

[olliegjw]

It was 3-3 in the bottom of the 9th -- the winning run was already on 2nd. -- Unless we are talking about a different time.

By walking Pujols, you put the winning run on 3rd, with no room to pitch around Ankiel. Pujols has a .304 average versus RHP's, while Ankiel has a .370 OBP vs. RHP's. An intentional walk would have been very harmful there. I use average vs. OBP because Pujols would need a hit to score the winning run from 2nd, whereas Ankiel would only need to get on base to score the run with the bases loaded.

[sheethead]

Giving an IBB to Pujols would not cost the Brewers anything, and set up the force at 2nd.

 

Walking Pujols would have loaded the bases (already runners on 1st and 2nd), therefore putting the winning run on third. This would introduce a few more scenarios where the Cards could win without a hit (WP, BB, Balk). I was scared with Pujols at the plate, but I think pitching to him was the right call.

 

edit: ollie beat me to it

[giffted1]

I can't credit Yost for the teams performance these past couple months because I didn't blame him for their early struggles, but I'm glad to see there's less heat on Yost these days.

[Fatter than Joey]

By walking Pujols, you put the winning run on 3rd, with no room to pitch around Ankiel. Pujols has a .304 average versus RHP's, while Ankiel has a .370 OBP vs. RHP's.

 

Fair enough -- I had it in my head runners were on 2nd and 3rd.

[TooLiveBrew]

It was 3-3 in the bottom of the 9th -- the winning run was already on 2nd. -- Unless we are talking about a different time

 

Well I had it in my head that the score was 3-2, so... I 'get' you. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[endaround]

Torres is a good pitcher, but the diffrence between Torres batting and Gabe Kapler batting is much greater than Villaneuva vs Torres pitching.

[afeter]

Torres is a good pitcher, but the diffrence between Torres batting and Gabe Kapler batting is much greater than Villaneuva vs Torres pitching.

and torres was going to be extended and pitching for the third consecutive day.

[Thurston Fluff]

Torres is a good pitcher, but the diffrence between Torres batting and Gabe Kapler batting is much greater than Villaneuva vs Torres pitching.

 

Torres has a 2.73 ERA Villy a 4.87. Two runs in a one run game difference seems to be more problematic than Torres making an out at the plate in a one run game than the possibility that Kapler would succeed pinch hitting. Especially considering Torres in now hitting .500 for the season.

To further illustrate the difference between Villy and Torres pitches 1-15 Torres ERA is 2.67 Villy 4.60.

Pitches 16-30 Torres 1.89 ERA, Villy 5.51.

Only after 31 pitches does Villy do better.

Torres threw 22 pitches so the second inning was more or less the 16-30 range vs Villy's 1-15. That is an ERA difference of 1.89-4.60 for a 2.71 run difference. Going with the better pitcher in extra innings, with a one run lead, seems to me would give the team a lot better chance to win the game than pinch hitting with the lead and going with a pitcher more than twice as likely to give up a run that inning.

[naivin]

Torres is a good pitcher, but the diffrence between Torres batting and Gabe Kapler batting is much greater than Villaneuva vs Torres pitching.

 

I would agree, but unfortunately the manager of a MLB team does not have the luxury of taking that type of oversimplified look at a given situation, so I guess I don't quite understand the point.

 

First off, there was only 1 out, meaning Weeks has a crack at getting that run in too, and obviously it ended up working out. But, more importantly, who would you consider better equipped to work for the third consecutive day and protect a 1 run lead in the bottom of the 10th had they not scored the extra run(s), Torres or Villanueva? Its not close.

[naivin]

Torres is a good pitcher, but the diffrence between Torres batting and Gabe Kapler batting is much greater than Villaneuva vs Torres pitching.

and torres was going to be extended and pitching for the third consecutive day.

 

Ummm, yeah...Villanueva would have been working for the third consecutive day as well. Torres has a proven history of being a rubber arm and threw a grand total of 14 pitches the previous 2 days. So, sorry, but the fact that each worked the previous 2 days clearly supports sticking with Torres over going to Villanueva.

[TooLiveBrew]

Torres has a 2.73 ERA Villy a 4.87. ... going with a pitcher more than twice as likely to give up a run that inning.

 

With all due respect, this is where your problem begins -- using half a season's ERA to determine talent. ERA is not = 'odds'

 

 

Especially considering Torres in now hitting .500 for the season.

 

You cannot be serious.

[Thurston Fluff]

You cannot be serious.

 

No I wasn't just forgot to put the smiley dude there.

 

With all due respect, this is where your problem begins -- using half a season's ERA to determine talent. ERA is not = 'odds'

 

When determining odds that a run will cross in any given inning the earned runs a pitcher gives up would seem to me to be relevant. Predictive no, but when balancing out whether pinch hitting for the superior pitcher would give the team a better chance of winning than the seeing how much better one pitcher is doing than the other in not allowing runs to score is at least relevant. It certainly is better than just arbitrarily saying one move is better without even looking.

I don't think there is much doubt in anyone's mind that Torres is the better pitcher this year. I was just illustrating how much better he is this year. How much better he is was relevant to whether it was wise to let him hit in that particular instance or not.

[olliegjw]

With all due respect, this is where your problem begins -- using half a season's ERA to determine talent. ERA is not = 'odds'

What do suggest is a better measuring stick? He makes a very strong argument as to why Torres was the better option. I have yet to hear any solid reason as to why CV was the better option, other than "Because it's not what Yost did".

[TooLiveBrew]

But that's just another example of seeking out venom where none exists. It'd be nice if you would either show where someone explicitly said "Because it's not what Yost did", or admit you're way off base there.

 

Torres batting, man in scoring position, with only a 1-run lead >>>> Torres/Villy.

 

That extra run -- or shot at adding on an extra run -- is far more valuable than the difference between Torres & Villy.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

What do suggest is a better measuring stick?

 

Lots of choices here. FIP or xERA if you insist on looking at single season stats. 3 or so year FIP and xERA trends, and the constituent stats that determine them (pitching peripherals). Updated Marcel projections. A weighted combination of the better projection systems (Pecota, ZiPS, CHONE, etc.) and this season's results.

 

Pretty much anything is better than saying "Torres's current ERA = Torres's current true talent run prevention ability".

[Thurston Fluff]

Lots of choices here. FIP or xERA if you insist on looking at single season stats. 3 or so year FIP and xERA trends, and the constituent stats that determine them (pitching peripherals). Updated Marcel projections. A weighted combination of the better projection systems (Pecota, ZiPS, CHONE, etc.) and this season's results.

 

 

These are great at telling who is better overall or who would be the best player for the money or the most productive over a long period of time. When determining one instance in one game with minutes to evaluate, calculate and cross check all the relevant stats I think it's better to make that choice based on a quick reference what players have done this year. Ned has a one run lead and no guarantee of more no matter who he has hit. He wants to make sure he picks the guy who has done the best job of not allowing runs to score. ERA does that. Torres has done a better job at not allowing runs to score. Go ahead and check your other stats and see what you get. But do it in two minutes or less. That's about the amount of time Ned had.

All the others are fine for other uses and long term predictions. Not so fine with choices that have to be made now. I'd be interested to see if my ERA use turns out to be wrong. If not then it seems like the quick and dirty evaluation worked.

 

It amazes me how I used a stat to counter someone who doesn't use any and I'm the one who is questioned. What evidence was used to determine the relative value of a pinch hitter in one run game in extra innings vs the superior pitcher? Until someone wants to give me real evidence I'll continue to think my limited use of stats is superior to none at all. So far that is the alternative in this particular discussion.

[logan82]

I am not to worried about Torres pitching 4 innings over the course of 3 days.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd hope it doesn't take Ned digging through stats to determine the relative talent levels of his pitching staff. If that's the case (I don't believe it is), we're in serious trouble.

 

 

Torres has done a better job at not allowing runs to score.

 

But there's so much out of his hands that goes into this. Torres has actually had several outings this season in which good luck either bailed him out or helped him tremendously. For a recent example -- last night, Molina missing a HR by a matter of feet. Did Torres secretly throw the 'warning track meatball'? Of course not, and I'm only overstating to make the point that Torres, while he has been good, is not infallible, nor does he possess greater skill or value than Villy to the point where a chance to add one run to a 1-run lead in the top of the 10th inning should be eschewed in favor of 'Torres over Villy'.

 

I'm no rluz, but adding that one run is going to increase your odds of winning drastically. Of course there are no guarantees that a PH would plate the run, but there are no guarantees that Torres wouldn't make an out, and then blow the game in the bottom half. I respect that you're searching for the greatest chance(s) at victory, Buc, and in that sense everyone disucssing here is on the same page.

 

I just believe that extending a 1-run lead to a 2-run lead in that situation increases the team's odds of winning far more than using Villy decreases our chances at winning compared to using Torres. I also recognize that a PH is actually likely to not get the run in -- but the reward relative to the risk involved (not having Torres for the 10th) screams 'go for it!' to me. Imho Yost should have gone to a batter for that gigantic-leverage PA, but he instead chose to take less than the best available choice (a curse that plagues & defines his tenure here in my eyes), and hope that things worked out how he hoped. Luckily for everyone, things did indeed work out the way Ned hoped. But as has been said before & will be said again, Yost should not be praised for playing the smaller odds just because the team picked him up.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Villy's updated Marcel projection ERA for remainder of '08: 4.32

Torres's updated Marcel projection ERA for remainder of '08: 4.07

 

Before you scoff at the Torres projection, realize that he's 36, he's already thrown as many IP as he did all of last year, and as bad as he was last year, his peripherals are actually worse this year. I think that's actually a pretty fair estimate of Torres's present true talent run prevention ability.

 

They're much closer to the being the same pitcher than they are to being separated by as wide a gulf as you used. And those pitch splits are going to be way too small a sample to learn anything meaningful.

[olliegjw]

Let's also remember that if CV came in, neither him nor Torres would be available today. At least CV can pitch today without having to go a 4th straight day. I can't believe people are actually criticizing this move. I still haven't seen any strong argument against it, other than you have no faith in Torres from holding the other team scoreless.

 

If the score were 1-0, and Sheets came up in that situation in the top of the 9th would still pinch hit? Even if Sheets had a 2 hit shutout and at 100 pitches? Please don't tell me you would take him out.

[tristarscoop]

I think the argument that we needed/wanted Villy available for today is the best one I've heard. Suppan hasn't been going deep in games, he's fresh off the DL and we don't know what we're going to get and these are crucial games. Keeping Villy as an option to be able go more than 2 innings tonight is the best possible reason I can think of for not using him last night.

[Bring Back the Stein]

The student certainly became the master tonight, and vice versa. Pitch a 6-inning guy in trouble and not locating to multiple hits? That sounds familiar. Let's just hope our guy doesn't share their guy's affinity for the brown stuff (and La Russa's going to need it tonight).