The CC Sabathia thread: Latest - CC a Brewer! (part 2)

[RU Rah Rah]

Sometimes the best deals are the ones you don't make.

[MoneyballMan]

I'm so excited I can't even put my thoughts together. Sheets and CC could battle each other for the freakin' NL Cy Young award!! On the same team! Your Milwaukee Brewers!! It has to happen tonight....I may not sleep until it happens.... as long as it's not a crappy deal.....

[Tbadder]

Please ignore the Dodgers and don't feel pressured. Without a decent SS the Dodgers are going nowhere even with CC. Desperation equals mistake. Stick to your guns LaPorta and Green and a low level pitching prospect..

[ELCABALLO45]

If Escobar is the reason its being held up, trade him them, sign Hardy long term

[endaround]

The Dodgers can afford to sign Sabathia after the season and will pay accordingly. They have $13m to Furcal, $10m to Lowe, $9m to Kent, and $8.5 m to Garciaparra coming off the books.

[TheCrew07]

If Escobar is the reason its being held up, trade him them, sign Hardy long term

I'm sorry but I have a hard time being civil when people suggest that our team should just give up 3 top prospects for a rental pitcher. Instead of saying something nasty, I'm just going to avoid this thread.

[clancyphile]

At this point, I'd see if Calix Crabbe could net Maddux from the Padres.

 

Then, I go back to the Indians, and tell them the drop-dead offer is Laporta, Dave Bush, and Escobar for CC.

[dadofandrew]

That's more than they're offering now. Doug is not going to bicker with himself. They have an offer, and we'll see if they'll take it.

[ELCABALLO45]

I just think I don't think high on Escobar as everyone here

[clancyphile]

I just think I don't think high on Escobar as everyone here

JJ Hardy is a solid shortstop and can be signed long-term to a reasonably affordable salary. Escobar is more expendable than Taylor Green at this point, at least as I see it.

 

[RyDogg66]

If Escobar is the reason its being held up, trade him them, sign Hardy long term

Who the heck are we? The 2000-2005 Yankees? That is a terrible idea. You dont overpay for old average talent, which is what extending Hardy would be.

 

[endaround]

JJ Hardy is an average short stop that will cost $35 million more over the next four years as comapared to the same production from Escobar.

[RU Rah Rah]

CC's career ERA+ is 115 (25 among current P's with 100+ decisions, tied with Benny), and his career WHIP is 1.265 (19th). That WHIP number puts him between Javier Vasquez and Jon Leiber. SO to BB is 2.54, good enough for 18th (between Kevin Millwood and Chris Carpenter).

 

When you look at his numbers, those are the kinds of names that keep popping up as being comparable -- save for Benny, who actually profiles significantly better in most categories. (Mark Buerhle is another one who is in the ballpark.)

 

He's really a second-echelon SP -- good, well above average, but not great. Would we deal all of these guys for Mark Buerhle?

 

[ELCABALLO45]

Hardy is old avg. talent? I guess a 25 year old, who was a all star last year makes you old and avg.

[endaround]

Sabathia over the past 2.5 season has been better than his career averages. What he did as 20 year old in 2001 has little bearing on his current ability

[logan82]

clancyphile wrote:

Then, I go back to the Indians, and tell them the drop-dead offer is Laporta, Dave Bush, and Escobar for CC.

My opinion is that offer is to high. We need Bush next year to fill out our rotation.

[shelmark]

Let's not be blinded by the last two weeks of Hardy. He is average in every way, except speed, which is below average. I like him, but not enough to trade Escobar or sign him long term. LaPorta and Green should be more than enough for a guy we will have for two to three months. LaPorta will be in Cleveland next year and Green in two years. I believe that if we don't get CC by Monday Melvin will turn to a lesser starter, AKA, Maddux or Wolf. We could get two starts from CC before the break, and he could pitch the first game off the break. If we don't get him until the deadline, that will mean five starts we lost out on. Now or never would be my pitch to Cleveland; in a nicer sorta way.

[ELCABALLO45]

I don't think people understand how good of a pitcher Sabathia really is.

[gbpacker40]

RU RU, I understand your point, but I think if you look at the last 3 years, that IMO would be more indicative of what we would be getting. So if you want, compare his last 3 years to anyones and tell me were he stacks up then.

[logan82]

I think CC's next start is on Sunday.

[MoneyballMan]

I think CC's next start is on Sunday.

Sunday or Monday would be fine - I have tickets for both games.

 

Ok, we need an "official" update. Who's turn was it to bug DM's study???

[RyDogg66]

I just think I don't think high on Escobar as everyone here

Everyone here and many professional scouts. Not saying that scouts are never wrong, but the consensus is that Escobar is about ready, and will be next year.

 

[RyDogg66]

Hardy is old avg. talent? I guess a 25 year old, who was a all star last year makes you old and avg.

If you extend him past his arby years, then yes, you are buying average old talent and giving away young cheap talent. Hardy is above-average right now but his range has already gone down from when he was a rookie. You mentioned trading Escobar and extending Hardy. Hardy is going to command 8-10 million a year, I'll be damned if I would pay that for Hardy past age 28.

 

[SpaceBadger16]

To move back to CC...

 

The Crew has 76 games left this season, a number getting smaller by the day. Assume the trade gets pulled off tomorrow. That gives Sabathia roughly 15 starts for the Crew. Pick your stat: this year, CC's winning % is about 43%, but he's about 60% for his career.

 

By my math, that means adding CC, presumably without trading any major-league starting talent, could net the Brewers between 6 to 9 wins out of him. How much more is that than the guys we have right now?

 

As I see it (based on the same range - 1st number is career win % x 15 starts left; 2nd number is season win % x 15 starts left):

 

Sheets - 8-12 wins

Suppan - 7-8 wins

Bush - 5-7 wins

Parra - 11-12 wins (beware small sample size for winning %)

McClung - 6-9 wins

 

So basically, getting CC Sabathia pushes Bush back to the pen (or McClung, but likely Bush). Is that increase of a few wins worth trading a guy who looks like he'll hit the crap out of the ball in the Show and might take over for Prince (if/when he leaves) someday? I don't think so.

 

Getting CC is a sexy pick. There's a lot of buzz generated, it shows that we're serious about winning NOW and CC's numbers in terms of winning % might jump - the Brewers are a better team than the Tribe. I just don't like putting all that on the table when I think that we're a talented club with A TON of games left against NL Central teams to make a push.

 

RU rah rah might be right - sometimes the best deals are the ones that don't happen. It seems like this one is going to though, and I'd be lying if I said I didn't get excited if it went down.

[gbpacker40]

Let me say in the 3 past seasons I came up with these numbers....

 

130+ ERA

3.42 ERA

1.182 WHIP

 

I could be wrong as I did it by hand.....

Please compare that to Johan Santana....

 

142 +

3.03

1.097

 

While Santana does have him beat, its not by a HUGE margin. And I think most would agree here that Santana is arguably the best pitcher in the game the past 3 seasons.