The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[jmeks23]

I think if Texas is calling you have to try everything in your power to get Profar. Olt looks good and if you could get Olt and perhaps Holland like previously mentioned than that is a pretty good haul. But Profar is the true prize and even if you had to give up Greinke and others to get him I think it'd be worth it. The idea has been tossed around of Greinke, Hart, and a minor leaguer for Profar and a minor leaguer. That's okay with me. It hurts us short term, but long term I think it would be a good move.

[torts]

brewers apparently have a 5 yr $100mil offer out there, according to Heyman on Twitter

[markedman5]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19578820/brewers-willing-to-bid-about-100m-but-greinke-unlikely-to-forgo-free-agency

[RockCoCougars]

brewers apparently have a 5 yr $100mil offer out there, according to Heyman on Twitter

 

Oh no. The dreaded 5/100 deal. Isn't this what they offered C.C and Prince? If they put a vesting offer for a 6th year in there, it's pretty comparable to Cain's deal, but I don't think that's going to be enough to get him to bite early.

[PrinceEatMeat]

That's not gonna do it. I doubt a 6th year would even do it. Probably would have to at least match Cain's deal to get him to think about it.

[TooLiveBrew]

brewers apparently have a 5 yr $100mil offer out there, according to Heyman on Twitter

So is this the token-publicized-offer-with-no-real-chance-of-getting-accepted offer? Because if I'm Greinke, this really isn't close to the offers I'll probably be looking at in the offseason.

[SRB]

I don't understand baseball; are advanced metrics really that highly valued by front offices? Because based on his ERA/WHIP, Greinke only has one great season (2009). He doesn't have the same surface numbers as Santana/Sabathia or even Cain, so you have to really trust FIP/xFIP/WAR I guess to think the Cain contract is automatically the starting point (particularly since his free agency value will take a hit from Hamels potentially being on the market).

 

Don't get me wrong, I like advanced metrics and think Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but I find it weird that there is such a consensus on his value being so high. (Won't even mention the absurd can-only-pitch-in-tiny-hamlets-like-Milwaukee amateur psychology.)

 

I think 5/$100 is very realistic and by no means a low-ball from the Brewers.

 

ERA/WHIP the three years before their big contracts:

Matt Cain: 2.89/1.180, 3.14/1.080, 2.88/1.080

Johan Santana: 2.87/0.970, 2.77/1.000, 3.33/1.070

CC Sabathia: 3.22/1.170, 3.21/1.140, 2.70/1.100

 

Zack Greinke?: 4.17/1.250, 3.83/1.200, 3.32/1.230 (2012)

[paul253]

I think 5/$100 is very realistic and by no means a low-ball from the Brewers.

 

Unfortunately a player's value is only what a team is willing to pay him. Randy Wolf isn't a $10 million a year pitcher but we agreed to give it to him so that's what his value is.

 

If the Brewers are willing to give Greinke $20 million a year why not just add a year and make it 6/$120? I am sick of these token offers. It's the same deal Fielder and Sabathia turned down. Why would Greinke accept it?

[SRB]

I think 5/$100 is very realistic and by no means a low-ball from the Brewers.

 

Unfortunately a player's value is only what a team is willing to pay him. Randy Wolf isn't a $10 million a year pitcher but we agreed to give it to him so that's what his value is.

 

Yes, but I'm not convinced other teams will be jumping over each other to give Greinke $20+/year. There's no reason to unless you really, really trust xFIP over ERA.

[TooLiveBrew]

Or unless you trust watching him/scouting -- flawless delivery, excellent athletic ability, top-notch arm. I really think we're talking somewhere around $125M being the bare minimum to sign him on the FA market. Especially if Hamels is retained by Philly.

[derflotr]

I really think we're talking somewhere around $125M being the bare minimum to sign him on the FA market.

If that's the case, goodbye Zack.

 

125 mil minimum, really? I can't understand that kind of price tag deriving from his career production. That seems a little nuts to me.

[SRB]

Or unless you trust watching him/scouting -- flawless delivery, excellent athletic ability, top-notch arm. I really think we're talking somewhere around $125M being the bare minimum to sign him on the FA market. Especially if Hamels is retained by Philly.

What good is a top-notch arm and strikeouts if you can't get the ERA down? I'm not anti-sabermetrics in the least, but if I'm making a decision worth hundreds of millions of dollars, I'm paying a guy based on results.

[TooLiveBrew]

I really think we're talking somewhere around $125M being the bare minimum to sign him on the FA market.

If that's the case, goodbye Zack.

 

125 mil minimum, really? I can't understand that kind of price tag deriving from his career production. That seems a little nuts to me.

Once he hits the open market, I really think there will be at least two teams willing to go higher than the Cain deal (since ZG is still pretty young). Who knows, maybe I'll be wrong, but I just think 5/$100M is way short compared to what he'll sign as a FA. Maybe I should say a minimum of $115M, since that's closer to the Cain total, but with the way FA has gone recently, I think there will be multiple teams willing to at least match said Cain deal. $125M is kind of the generic reference I've been using in my own head when thinking about Greinke's impending free agency, so I guess I shouldn't throw it around so liberally. But I really do think that's about what he'll get on the open market.

[Team Canada]

I'm with you, TLB. Unless he really wants to stay in Milwaukee, there's no way $100M is close to what he'll end up signing for.

[NievesNoNO]

I don't think 100 mil is a low ball or token offer by any means. Do I think they're too late with that offer? Yes. Last year that may have gotten it done, but a couple months away from a bidding war I'm doubting it. Zack is in the prime of his career with stellar peripherals, durable, and a Cy Young. Somebody would give him at least 6 years on the open market with probably more per year. If Zack's happy in Milwaukee and 100 mil is cool with him then there's a shot. I will say teams have seemingly been a little less willing to hand out massive FA pitcher contracts of late so maybe that plays into the Brewers favor a bit. We'll see. To me the time to extend him was last season, but maybe the Brewers know something we don't.

[TooLiveBrew]

Think of it this way -- 3+ seasons ago, 5/$100M wasn't even close to what CC Sabathia wound up signing for as a free agent. Now there's more money being thrown around in free agency than post-2008, and what constituted a lowball or token offer then isn't a lowball/token offer now?

 

I agree that ZG might, for some reason, be very happy to sign for 5/$100M... and it's obviously possible that a leaked contract figure could be far from accurate. But if 5/$100M is correct, I won't for a second try to convince myself that the Brewers are legitimately expecting him to say 'yes' to that offer.

[derflotr]

I really think we're talking somewhere around $125M being the bare minimum to sign him on the FA market.

If that's the case, goodbye Zack.

 

125 mil minimum, really? I can't understand that kind of price tag deriving from his career production. That seems a little nuts to me.

Once he hits the open market, I really think there will be at least two teams willing to go higher than the Cain deal (since ZG is still pretty young). Who knows, maybe I'll be wrong, but I just think 5/$100M is way short compared to what he'll sign as a FA. Maybe I should say a minimum of $115M, since that's closer to the Cain total, but with the way FA has gone recently, I think there will be multiple teams willing to at least match said Cain deal. $125M is kind of the generic reference I've been using in my own head when thinking about Greinke's impending free agency, so I guess I shouldn't throw it around so liberally. But I really do think that's about what he'll get on the open market.

When I say "That seems a little nuts to me", I say it in the same way my grandpa might exasperatedly comment on gas or cigarette prices, or the way my mother bends the question "Do you really need two computer screens?". It's that thing of - I get it, but I don't get it. I'm sure you're right, and the high demand for Greinke will drive up his price to an obscene level, but it fundamentally confounds me. Perhaps I completely misinterpret Zack's ability, but I think he's a pretty good pitcher. I don't think he's a please-sign-this-blank-check-as-we-beg type of pitcher. I'd take Cain in a heartbeat. I don't think Zack deserves Cain money. But luckily, I don't make these decisions.

[Oldcity]

Crazy things happen on the free agent market. Players worse than Greinke have received $125 million contracts. Howard got it, and he wasn't even a free agent. Zito and Vernon Wells got more.

[JohnBriggs12]

That offer is more than fair based on his production. $20 million per year? That's very generous and I'm guessing is well above what level the Brewers were thinking prior to Cain's deal. I don't see teams lining up to give him more than that. The big spenders all have reservations about him pitching in a big market.

 

The last 3 seasons, Cain's been the better, more consistent pitcher. Greinke shouldn't expect a payday equal to or better than Cain.

[TooLiveBrew]

When I say "That seems a little nuts to me", I say it in the same way my grandpa might exasperatedly comment on gas or cigarette prices, or the way my mother bends the question "Do you really need two computer screens?". It's that thing of - I get it, but I don't get it. I'm sure you're right, and the high demand for Greinke will drive up his price to an obscene level, but it fundamentally confounds me. Perhaps I completely misinterpret Zack's ability, but I think he's a pretty good pitcher. I don't think he's a please-sign-this-blank-check-as-we-beg type of pitcher. I'd take Cain in a heartbeat. I don't think Zack deserves Cain money. But luckily, I don't make these decisions.

 

I get the reluctance to embrace ZG as a bonafide ace, but keep in mind that Matt Cain has pitched his entire career in the NL, with one of the best pitchers' parks in MLB as his home field. The difference between the two imo is pretty small, and like you say, the FA market can do crazy things.

 

However, the main problem I have with the idea of extending Greinke is that a 5-year contract would be covering his age 29-30-31-32-33 seasons. I'm not really comfortable with the Brewers guaranteeing something like $100-125M to essentially pay for a player's early 30s seasons. I think that money can be better allocated on the international FA market and for contract extensions like what've been tendered to Yo/Luc/Braun.

[logan82]

I get the reluctance to embrace ZG as a bonafide ace, but keep in mind that Matt Cain has pitched his entire career in the NL, with one of the best pitchers' parks in MLB as his home field.

Not only one of the best pitchers parks but probably the best pitchers divisions with LA and San Diego included in it.

[PilprinBuddha]

what was Cain's deal? I'd match it.

 

You don't give up what we gave up fro a guy to go Chicken when its time to resign him.

 

If we trade him, tell me what has changed since the Greg Vaughn days? (I know I'm overreacting, but I am sick of trading away talent).

[monty57]

(I know I'm overreacting, but I am sick of trading away talent).

 

In Melvin's tenure, the only MLB talent I can think of the Brewers trading away are Sexson and Carlos Lee. Personally, I'm getting sick of us trading away prospects, signing expensive free agents because we don't have pre-arby guys to fill the roles, and watching guys leave as free agents because we refuse to ever trade anyone with any talent.

[SRB]

Purely hypothetical because I haven't seen them linked to Greinke, but Cleveland is in the thick of the AL Central division race despite horrible starting pitching. They were willing to make a big trade for Jimenez last season, is it possible they would give up Francisco Lindor for a Greinke rental?

[And That]

According to Ken Rosenthal, expect the White Sox to express some interest in Greinke.

 

Problem is, their farm system is pretty much flat worthless and it doesn't make sense for them to trade away major league pieces.