The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[adambr2]

I don't know why it's a crazy idea that we would be able to trade him and sign him in the offseason. I think most of us can agree that the following 2 scenarios are very, very likely:

 

1) At this point, Greinke is going to go to free agency and not sign before then.

2) When Greinke is a free agent, he is going to go to the team that makes him the best offer, like almost every other elite free agent.

 

So if we are that team that offers him the most, I think he'd be right back here anyway, I don't think that a trade two months earlier is going to make a bit of difference. If we're not that team, we're going to lose him either way.

 

We can say all we want about Greinke wanting to play in a quieter region, that he's different, that he loves it here, etc. We hear this every time a top Brewer player is heading to free agency. Top FA's 99 times out of 100 do not give hometown discounts when they hit free agency. Partly because the players union frowns on it, and partly because, well, they've made it here, they want the most money.

[TooLiveBrew]

At this point, if I could pick the organization (out of discussed candidates) Greinke would be dealt to, it'd be Texas or Baltimore. Both appear to have numerous elite or top-level prospects. Just in reading through the Perfect Game top prospect reports, it seems like the Angels' system is a good step down -- at least in terms of the top prospects, as long as you don't count Trout -- from TEX & BAL. However, I'll guess the Angels are the most likely trade partner at this point... given their roster situation & ownership. It seems you keep hearing Texas linked to Hamels, and the O's might not want to sell young talent for a rental knowing they still have to outlast at least two of NYY, BOS, & TB.

 

It's fun to think about some of the following names being realistic (or close to realistic) candidates to come back in exchange for Greinke -- Mike Olt, Martin Perez, Leonys Martin, Kaleb Cowart, C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Jean Segura... not to mention the pipe-dream guys like Machado, Profar, & Bundy.

 

If anyone's interested, here are the Perfect Game top prospects articles for Baltimore and Texas.

[Raw Biz]

At this point, if I could pick the organization (out of discussed candidates) Greinke would be dealt to, it'd be Texas or Baltimore. Both appear to have numerous elite or top-level prospects. Just in reading through the Perfect Game top prospect reports, it seems like the Angels' system is a good step down -- at least in terms of the top prospects, as long as you don't count Trout -- from TEX & BAL. However, I'll guess the Angels are the most likely trade partner at this point... given their roster situation & ownership. It seems you keep hearing Texas linked to Hamels, and the O's might not want to sell young talent for a rental knowing they still have to outlast at least two of NYY, BOS, & TB.

 

It's fun to think about some of the following names being realistic (or close to realistic) candidates to come back in exchange for Greinke -- Mike Olt, Martin Perez, Leonys Martin, Kaleb Cowart, C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Jean Segura... not to mention the pipe-dream guys like Machado, Profar, & Bundy.

 

If anyone's interested, here are the Perfect Game top prospects articles for Baltimore and Texas.

 

I think I'd rather deal with LAA than BAL at this point, to be honest. It looks like BAL won't give up Machado or Bundy and after those two, there's a pretty good drop off. Schoop would be okay but I don't want anything to do with any of their demoted starters (Britton, Matusz, Arrieta), at least not as anything more than a throw-in. LAA has Segura, Richards, Cron, and Cowart. I also think LAA would be willing to give up more, since they basically only have to deal with TEX while BAL has to contend with NYY, BOS, and TAM. And LAA already has more talent than BAL so Greinke would probably put them more over the top than BAL. That being said, since Aybar is a FA, I don't know if LAA would give up Segura (if he sticks at SS). Maybe we can throw in Izturis/Maysonet.

[Eye Black]

That being said, since Aybar is a FA, I don't know if LAA would give up Segura (if he sticks at SS).

Isn't he signed through 2016?

[Raw Biz]

That being said, since Aybar is a FA, I don't know if LAA would give up Segura (if he sticks at SS).

Isn't he signed through 2016?

 

Yeah my bad. I was just reading an article on Segura that said Aybar was a FA after this year and Segura would likely be auditioning for a starting spot next year. But that was written before the season and I forgot Aybar signed an extension in April.

[reillymcshane]

I am thinking just don't going to take anyone especially if its not going to help the crew I will keep him and roll the dice

 

Anyone have a translation for this?

I ran it through Google translation and it came out:

 

I don't want the Brewers to make a trade for a player who isn't going to really help the team big time in the future. Instead, I would roll the dice and try and win this year.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I'm not convinced he's gotten the Brewers best offer. I thought I remembered MA & DM making some comments about free agents liking to talk to the Brewers, but just to get an offer they could shop. They may be wary of setting the price for Zack just to have him take it somewhere else. If he showed a more genuine interest to say, make it a good one and I'm in, it might get done.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'm not convinced he's gotten the Brewers best offer. I thought I remembered MA & DM making some comments about free agents liking to talk to the Brewers, but just to get an offer they could shop. They may be wary of setting the price for Zack just to have him take it somewhere else. If he showed a more genuine interest to say, make it a good one and I'm in, it might get done.

 

You can't take offers and shop them anywhere else right now. If other teams were talking to him, it would be tampering. Setting a price is an issue in the offseason, but not during the season while trying to sign a player to an extension.

[Raw Biz]

I figured I would make a list of hypothetical trades that I'd like to see the Brewers make. Some will probably be reaching but I think most are in the realms of possibility. I'm going to stick to the 4 teams that have been rumored to be interested, plus the Tigers who could probably use Greinke. Obviously a trade for one of Profar/Machado/Bundy would be #1 but since none of them are likely to be traded, I will start elsewhere

 

From DET:

 

1. Turner and Castellanos (Dreaming, almost no chance of happening)

2. Turner and a couple of B-/C+ prospects (Collins, Flynn?)

3. Castellanos + Smyly

4. Castellanos + Crosby + another low prospect

 

Not sure if Castellanos will keep up his OBP since its basically tied to his AVG (i.e. doesn't walk much) but I'd still take him. Also, with Smyly plugged into their rotation, don't know if they will give him up.

 

From BAL:

 

1. Schoop + Delmonico + Arrieta + another B-/C+

 

Honestly, after Schoop (and obviously Bundy/Machado) I don't really like anything.

 

From LAA:

 

1. Richards + Segura + Cowart

2. Richards + Segura + Cron

3. Richards + Segura + Jimenez

4. Richards + Segura

5. Segura + Cowart + Cron

6. Segura + Jimenez + Cron

 

Richards + Segura + anyone is probably reaching but I'd still ask and then work my way down. I actually like a lot of what LAA has.

 

From ATL:

 

1. Teheran + Delgado/Vizcaino

2. Teheran + Gilmartin + Pastornicky

3. Delgado + Vizcaino

4. Delgado + Gilmartin + Pastornicky

 

The Braves usually draft pitching well and they have a lot to choose from. I would love to get 2 of Teheran/Vizcaino/Delgado but that probably won't happen. Pastornicky is included because while he didn't light the world on fire this year, he would fill a hole until Rivera/Arcia are ready. And he's only 22.

 

From TEX:

 

1. Olt + Perez

2. Olt + Martin

3. Perez + Martin

4. Olt + Ross + Grimm

5. Olt + Ramirez + Odor

6. Martin + 2 of Ross/Ramirez/Grimm + Odor

 

Obviously Texas is loaded and there's a lot to choose from. They said they don't want to include Olt but I would insist. Even with his big K numbers, he walks a lot and hits for great power. And if they don't include Olt, they have a lot of other great prospects.

 

Overall:

 

1. DET1 (Most likely wouldn't happen)

2. LAA1

3. ATL1/TEX1

4. DET2

5. LAA2

Last. BAL1

 

I'd look to focus on TEX and LAA as trade partners, as I think they'd be willing to give up the most, have the best prospects, and would be fighting against each other. I'd stay away from BAL because, like I said, they don't have much behind their top 3. ATL is basically pitching-heavy and, while you can never have enough pitching, our farm is pitching-heavy as well and it'd be nice to get some impact bats. I'm not as familiar with DET after Turner/Castellanos but if you could get both, that would be my number 1.

[Dollarbill13]

I love the idea of getting Odor. He's a little far away but for an 18 year old in A ball to have 8 HR at the break and a .187 ISO is pretty impressive. I could easily see him ending up as a top 10-ish prospect in a year or two, once he has a little more opportunity to succeed.

[brewmann04]

Alot of teams intrested which should help DM get the best prospects.

[TheCrew07]

I think that if you want player who profiles as an impact player it's going to be a straight up trade for guy in A or A+. Remember the team getting the rental doesn't get draft picks anymore. Is one legit prospect better than 2 draft picks? It depends on who's doing the drafting and how high the picks are but in most cases "a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush"... Give me the prospect.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The biggest hope here is that at least a few of these teams get in a bidding war. It all depends on how interested they are in Greinke. It's probably varying levels, but we'll know for sure if Greinke officially becomes available. Best case is probably the Rangers and Angels duking it out, because they are division rivals and don't want each other to get Greinke.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I'm not convinced he's gotten the Brewers best offer. I thought I remembered MA & DM making some comments about free agents liking to talk to the Brewers, but just to get an offer they could shop. They may be wary of setting the price for Zack just to have him take it somewhere else. If he showed a more genuine interest to say, make it a good one and I'm in, it might get done.

 

You can't take offers and shop them anywhere else right now. If other teams were talking to him, it would be tampering. Setting a price is an issue in the offseason, but not during the season while trying to sign a player to an extension.

I understand he can't shop it now, but that offer will still be there in free agency. If he really wanted to stay and not test free agency, the Brewers would show their cards. If they don't think he'd realistically sign, why give him a number he can shop to other clubs in the off season. Just my outside opinion, but I don't think they ever got that far. They probably talked around the edges and realized Cain put the bid/ask too far apart.

 

I'd love to be proven wrong and have them reach a decent deal before the deadline, but I just don't see it happening.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'm not convinced he's gotten the Brewers best offer. I thought I remembered MA & DM making some comments about free agents liking to talk to the Brewers, but just to get an offer they could shop. They may be wary of setting the price for Zack just to have him take it somewhere else. If he showed a more genuine interest to say, make it a good one and I'm in, it might get done.

 

You can't take offers and shop them anywhere else right now. If other teams were talking to him, it would be tampering. Setting a price is an issue in the offseason, but not during the season while trying to sign a player to an extension.

I understand he can't shop it now, but that offer will still be there in free agency. If he really wanted to stay and not test free agency, the Brewers would show their cards. If they don't think he'd realistically sign, why give him a number he can shop to other clubs in the off season. Just my outside opinion, but I don't think they ever got that far. They probably talked around the edges and realized Cain put the bid/ask too far apart.

 

I'd love to be proven wrong and have them reach a decent deal before the deadline, but I just don't see it happening.

 

I don't see it happening either. I agree that it broke down due to the Cain deal. I still think they have their best offer out there though. They probably had something around what Weaver got before the Cain deal happened, and I would guess they've upped it a little since then. Still won't be in the ballpark of what Greinke will be looking for though. Either way, the Brewers can't afford to not show their cards if their intention is to sign him to an extension. Greinke can't make a decision without a number out there. That's obviously a huge part of it. The only way they'll re-sign him at this point is if they keep him, and he realizes he likes the Brewers and their offer better than the the other teams out there who are interested. I just don't see any way that he won't go to the open market and see what's out there.

[RWeeksFan23]

Even if we are able to move Greinke for a SS (Segura, Machado or any of the other guys mentioned) what the heck do we do to start the year next year there? Resign Gonzales? At the very best we could see one of these guys called up mid season, I don't think out of the guys we can realistically get will be our opening day SS next year.

 

yup, my question as well.

 

I don't think we should let the question about what to do next year stop us from acquiring a great SS prospect via trade. Worry about that when we get there. If Gonzalez heals quickly and everything checks out, he could be had for cheap and would likely outperform any of our current options. Bianchi could be an option depending on what happens this year. They could sign someone else for cheap.

 

Honestly, they probably won't be competing next year either (unless they resign one/both of Greinke/Marcum, depending on if they trade for someone, if they sign someone big, etc.). So I don't think any lack of a great SS will really hurt them. I'd rather they get the BPA (or rather highest talent ceiling available) via trade and if that happens to be a SS who's a couple of years away, then so be it.

Just curious as to why you and some other people I've read say the same thing, think the Brewers won't be that good the next year or two.. I don't see why that would be the case. Even assuming Greinke and Marcum walk, we can easily go after a guy like Ryan Dempster, who would probably show interest in coming here given he's pitched in Chicago all those years.

 

Our offense projects to be better next season, with Gamel and Gonzalez coming back, and a rotation of Gallardo-Dempster-Fiers-Estrada-Peralta doesn't look that bad.

 

And as bad as the bullpen was this season, chances are it will improve next year as I think Axford is better than he's shown this year, and with as much money coming off the books as there is, we could possibly also afford to go after a Mike Adams or Grant Balfour too.

[adambr2]

Gonzalez isn't back next year. We'll address shortstop one way or another I would think, but his vesting option doesn't come into play next year.

 

Given that we're not particularly competitive right now with Greinke and Marcum, I'd have a tough time seeing us being competitive without them.

 

And counting on adding guys like Dempster, Adams, Balfour, etc, is a pretty big leap of faith I think. All of them will probably be sought by a number of teams. Even if you assume that we sign a guy like Dempster and add Adams or Balfour to the bullpen, which would definitely require some spending, Gallardo/Dempster/Fiers/Estrada/Peralta looks like a pretty average rotation to me with a ton of question marks at the back end. I love what we've seen from Fiers, but we're still a ways away from knowing if he's a long-term #3 starter.

 

The bullpen even with the addition and some progression would probably be average at best -- K-Rod will almost certainly not be back, so we'd add one but lose another. Just too many holes to fill IMO. We have to completely overhaul the rotation and bullpen, and have no choice but to add a shortstop in free agency as well.

 

So even with those additions, I could see us being an average team all the way around next year, but I feel like it would take a whole lot of things going right for them to be a contender.

[Oldcity]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-hypothetical-angels-trade-for-zack-greinke/

 

Fangraphs author speculates on an Angels trade. I think I'd be pretty happy with his proposal of Segura, Cron and one of those 3B.

[Raw Biz]

Just curious as to why you and some other people I've read say the same thing, think the Brewers won't be that good the next year or two.. I don't see why that would be the case.

 

What Adam said. I'm assuming Greinke and Marcum are both gone and assuming both will be replaced with in-house options. Even if they went with a signing, I think it'd be closer to a Looper-type 4-5 than a top-of-the-rotation guy. There aren't really any answers with the bullpen or SS either.

[Raw Biz]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-hypothetical-angels-trade-for-zack-greinke/

 

Fangraphs offer speculates on an Angels trade. I think I'd be pretty happy with his proposal of Segura, Cron and one of those 3B.

 

I'd definitely take that as well, though it would be nice to get at least one pitcher. That article is what actually inspired me to make my hypothetical trades post.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-hypothetical-angels-trade-for-zack-greinke/

 

Fangraphs author speculates on an Angels trade. I think I'd be pretty happy with his proposal of Segura, Cron and one of those 3B.

 

That's a pretty good return, but I don't see any way Melvin trades Greinke without getting a pitcher somewhere in the deal, and likely one that is close to MLB ready.

[RWeeksFan23]

Just curious as to why you and some other people I've read say the same thing, think the Brewers won't be that good the next year or two.. I don't see why that would be the case.

 

What Adam said. I'm assuming Greinke and Marcum are both gone and assuming both will be replaced with in-house options. Even if they went with a signing, I think it'd be closer to a Looper-type 4-5 than a top-of-the-rotation guy. There aren't really any answers with the bullpen or SS either.

I don't see why they wouldn't be able to go out and get a Dempster/Lohse type SP. Which if they do that, and upgrade the bullpen which shouldn't be too difficult considering how it can't get any worse, Idk if we'd be a playoff team necessarily, but we could be a 85ish win team.

[Raw Biz]

Just curious as to why you and some other people I've read say the same thing, think the Brewers won't be that good the next year or two.. I don't see why that would be the case.

 

What Adam said. I'm assuming Greinke and Marcum are both gone and assuming both will be replaced with in-house options. Even if they went with a signing, I think it'd be closer to a Looper-type 4-5 than a top-of-the-rotation guy. There aren't really any answers with the bullpen or SS either.

I don't see why they wouldn't be able to go out and get a Dempster/Lohse type SP. Which if they do that, and upgrade the bullpen which shouldn't be too difficult considering how it can't get any worse, Idk if we'd be a playoff team necessarily, but we could be a 85ish win team.

 

I don't think adding a Dempster/Lohse will significantly upgrade the team. I think they are closer to a Looper-type than a front-end, especially at their ages. Also, the bullpen can always get worse. I wouldn't just assume it's going to get better. For me, everything starts and ends with pitching. We tried for years with Prince/Braun/etc. and average pitching and it didn't work. We were lucky to finish .500. If we go back to that average pitching next year (and without Prince), I don't see how we could still be an 85-win team. That's why I don't think they will compete because their pitching will be below-average to average. Even a combo of Yo/Dempster/Fiers/Estrada/Narvy/Peralta/Thornburg would most likely be average.

[Dollarbill13]

Dempster has had an xFIP between 3.69 and 3.76 in each of the last 5 seasons, so I would say he's better than a 4-5. Lohse is a little above 4 for the last two years. I wouldn't mind either as a stop-gap next year if we really needed it and if they'd take 1 year deals. Dempster would be a decent replacement for Marcum but as The Biz said, we'd still need to replace Greinke.

 

I don't want to give up on next year because I think even an 80 win team is worth more to the organization than saving $10-20M and winning 70 games. I know some may disagree with that but I don't want to go back to the days where we end up on everyone's no-trade list.

 

By the way, what's with the Looper references?

[yoyomayoma]

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cards-in-the-market-for-pitching-help/article_dcb58688-cc13-11e1-bb54-0019bb30f31a.html

 

Shelby Miller anyone?