The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[Oldcity]

The Brewers have to be really confident that someone like Arrieta, Britton, or Matusz would turn it around. Otherwise, it could very well be trading Greinke for a replacement-level starter, which would be disastrous.

 

I wouldn't feel good at all about one of them headlining the package.

 

I wonder if we might see something like Alexi Ogando/Neftali Feliz. If the Rangers really don't want to give up any of their top three prospects, I could see that. It fits Melvin's MO of looking for win-now guys too.

[Yeti73]

It is interesting to read the O's fan's comments. You would think that they often flirt with the offseason. I recall our boards going crazy in the deal for CC and most of us being pretty comfortable giving up Laporta because getting an ace would be such a big deal even if for just a short period. Even if LaPorta had ended up being an All-Star, I'd still do that trade 10 of 10 times. That shot at glory is so fleeting.

 

My sense is that they just don't really believe in their team, which is understandable. Jones and Weiters are legit, but the rest of that team is a series of cast offs and streaky hitters who have been really hot. Hammels isn't as bad as his previous years indicate, but he's not this good either. Their rotation is...garbage.

[Oldcity]

I am amused by these fans of other teams talking about giving Greinke a "48 hour window" to sign an extension. Why in the world would he sign an extension now, with a brand new team no less, when he's three months from free agency?

[dlk9s]

If by some miracle, the O's offered Bundy for Grienke, I'd snap call. Hell, I'd give them Grienke plus assets for Bundy.

[ListachRides]

Since we're discussing young Orioles pitchers whose stars have faded a bit, I have yet to see anybody bring up Chris Tillman. I thought this article about him was intriguing:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chris-tillman-finally-arrives/

[Bkroppy3]

I dont see why Feliz's name gets brought up in Ranger talks I dont think there is anyway the trade him. I would love to have him would if he could get healthy and work out as a starter but i really dont believe in trading for top notch bp arms because they cost way to much to trade for. In my opinion there is no way they trade feliz

[EdRomero11]

I could see Melvin try to patch together something for next year like Greinke and Gindl for, Tillman, Chris Davis and Patton, Time will tell.

[trwi7]

I could see Melvin try to patch together something for next year like Greinke and Gindl for, Tillman, Chris Davis and Patton, Time will tell.

 

Sadly, I could see something like this too.

[Yeti73]

I could see Melvin try to patch together something for next year like Greinke and Gindl for, Tillman, Chris Davis and Patton, Time will tell.

 

Sadly, I could see something like this too.

 

This is also what I expect, IF we do a trade. However, judging on what Miami gave up for Lee, maybe this really is a seller's market. Os are also looking at Wandy, who has an additional year on his contract at $13 mm.

[Mr QL]

If no team is willing to pony up a top prospect then I'd just sit on Greinke until the offseason. Offer him a fair extension or let him walk for the comp picks. Getting replacement level starters, as someone else put it, for next season would be the worst case scenario.

[clancyphile]

I think the Orioles and Brewers match up quite well. Brewers need a pitcher and ss. Orioles have choices in both categories to offer up.

 

I'd swap Greinke for JJ Hardy and a starting pitcher prospect.

[paul253]

If no team is willing to pony up a top prospect then I'd just sit on Greinke until the offseason. Offer him a fair extension or let him walk for the comp picks. Getting replacement level starters, as someone else put it, for next season would be the worst case scenario.

 

What the Brewers think is a fair contract and what Greinke thinks is a fair contract are two different things. The Brewers offered Sabathia and Fielder what they thought were fair contracts and both deals got blown out of the water. If the Brewers want Greinke they'll have to overpay for him. I'm not saying that is a bad thing just saying.

 

If we don't trade Greinke we'll end up taking picks for him. Just to compare what we got in last years draft for losing Fielder. Do you think you can do better than Clint Coulter and Mitch Haniger? I'd say we probably could. Another thing to consider is that if the Brewers lose both Greinke and Marcum for picks, they'll get a lot of picks but because of the new rules they'll probably have to go cheap on one or two of the picks. I think trading him is the much safer bet even if you can't get another team's #1 prospect. You are getting a guy who is likely at least 2 or 3 years closer to the bigs and you don't have to worry about signing them.

[Oldcity]

I'd swap Greinke for JJ Hardy and a starting pitcher prospect.

Why would the Orioles do that? Their whole reason for getting Greinke is to go for the playoffs, so they wouldn't get rid of their starting shortstop. Machado isn't ready for the majors at all yet.

[Wiscollector]

I've seen the argument a few times mentioned regarding the draft that if the Brewers got comp picks for Greinke and Marcum they'd have to go on the cheap for "some" of the picks. This argument doesn't make sense to me, the Brewers would get a "budget" based on their total picks. So extra 1st rounders and comp picks would be figured into their budget. Granted they couldn't go after players with significant leverage, but this year a lot of players seemed to be more willing to sign near the slot figure than over.

[ListachRides]

I just read BA's pre-season scouting report on Schoop and it sounds pretty good to me. Among other things, the writer noted that some club officials believe Schoop is better defensively than Machado. He's struggling this year, but he's a 20 year-old in AA. It sounds like I'm in the minority here, but I think a package that includes Schoop and one of their scuffling, former top pitching prospects (Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta) is worth a long look.

[paul253]

I wouldn't be disappointed in getting Schoop back as part of a deal, but I don't think I'd want a Tillman Matusz or Arrieta. Tillman hasn't had any major league success yet and is will be 25 right as next season starts. Arrieta is pretty much in the same boat but two years older. He'll already be 27 before next season. I kind of feel the same way about Matusz. Getting out of the AL East would probably help them out some but if I am going to trade Greinke I'd like it to be for someone who is younger (20-22) and still has a significant amount of upside. By taking Tillman, Arrieta, or Matusz I feel like they are just getting an arm to plug into the rotation.

[Kelbysdaddy]

If they can't get machado or profar is rather get odor from Texas then schoop

[Mr QL]

If no team is willing to pony up a top prospect then I'd just sit on Greinke until the offseason. Offer him a fair extension or let him walk for the comp picks. Getting replacement level starters, as someone else put it, for next season would be the worst case scenario.

 

What the Brewers think is a fair contract and what Greinke thinks is a fair contract are two different things. The Brewers offered Sabathia and Fielder what they thought were fair contracts and both deals got blown out of the water. If the Brewers want Greinke they'll have to overpay for him. I'm not saying that is a bad thing just saying.

 

If we don't trade Greinke we'll end up taking picks for him. Just to compare what we got in last years draft for losing Fielder. Do you think you can do better than Clint Coulter and Mitch Haniger? I'd say we probably could. Another thing to consider is that if the Brewers lose both Greinke and Marcum for picks, they'll get a lot of picks but because of the new rules they'll probably have to go cheap on one or two of the picks. I think trading him is the much safer bet even if you can't get another team's #1 prospect. You are getting a guy who is likely at least 2 or 3 years closer to the bigs and you don't have to worry about signing them.

 

It's just a principle of the matter. I'm not giving another team a discount, if they want to go for it then they have to pay up. We certainly did with CC. I think we could make a competitive offer for Greinke and I'd rather not hand somebody their missing piece on the cheap. If we don't get any high ceiling prospects then what's the point?

[paul253]

I'm not giving another team a discount

 

His value is only what someone is willing to give us for him. If nobody is willing to give us a top 25 prospect it wouldn't be a "discount" to accept a prospect in the 25-50 range.

 

In an average draft for team with an average farm system the guys you pick in the mid to late first round and the comp round will generally rank in the 7-15 range as far as organizational top 20 prospects. Your system has to be pretty bad if you draft a guy at #27 and he becomes a top three prospect in your system. So if we trade Greinke for Mike Olt for instance, Olt might not be Texas top prospect but he'll certainly be one of our top 3 or 4. It'll be better than anything we can get in the draft. I'm not sure I'd say the same about Jon Schoop but Nick Castellanos, Julio Teheran and I'm sure a few others would fit that mold.

 

If we don't get any high ceiling prospects then what's the point?

 

And again, nobody is suggesting we give Greinke away. I think pretty much everyone wants to resign him but that's not looking realistic right now. So we have to determine which value is better: what we will get in a trade or what we'll get in the draft. If we use this past draft as a measuring stick that would mean if we can do better than Clint Coulter and Mitch Haniger we should pull the trigger. In my opinion, even some of the second tier names we are talking about (Olt, Schoop, Teheran, Castellanos, Perez) would be a better get than anything you're likely to get in the draft. Just because we might not get Profar or Machado or Bundy doesn't mean we just say forget it.

[SRB]

Orioles package that makes sense to me:

LHP, Zach Britton (BA #28 overall, pre-2011)

SS/2B, Jonathan Schoop (BA #82 overall, pre-2012)

LHP, Brian Matusz (BA #5 overall, pre-2010; has been horrendous, but could fill back of rotation with upside still)

1B/3B, Nicky Delmonico (got first-round money in 2011 draft; potential middle of the order bat)

 

To me that would be a very solid yet realistic haul. You get two very solid positional prospects to fill a system that is currently too pitching heavy, and you get two young pitchers that can slot into the rotation in 2013 (particularly important giving impending departure of Greinke/Marcum/Wolf) but who actually have prospect upside still, particularly Britton (who knows, maybe they can fix Matusz).

[Dollarbill13]

Orioles package that makes sense to me:

LHP, Zach Britton (BA #28 overall, pre-2011)

SS/2B, Jonathan Schoop (BA #82 overall, pre-2012)

LHP, Brian Matusz (BA #5 overall, pre-2010; has been horrendous, but could fill back of rotation with upside still)

1B/3B, Nicky Delmonico (got first-round money in 2011 draft; potential middle of the order bat)

 

To me that would be a very solid yet realistic haul. You get two very solid positional prospects to fill a system that is currently too pitching heavy, and you get two young pitchers that can slot into the rotation in 2013 (particularly important giving impending departure of Greinke/Marcum/Wolf) but who actually have prospect upside still, particularly Britton (who knows, maybe they can fix Matusz).

 

That's probably a realistic haul in terms of value, but I'm not a fan of Britton given the concerns with his shoulder. Unless the Orioles are willing to part with Machado, we'd probably have to take a 4-5 prospect package including a couple guys with upside who can hopefully develop into more than what they currently profile as.

[Oldcity]

On the topic of Teheran, how concerned should we be about his numbers this season? Only 51 strikeouts in 70 AAA innings. Not the dominance you'd be looking for from an elite prospect. He is only 21, but this is his second season at AAA.

[paul253]

Watching the futures game...I pretty much want all of them. It makes me think the Brewers would be foolish if they hang onto Greinke. Olt, Castellanos, Machado, Rondon, Segura (if he can stay at SS) are all guys who interest me.

 

Would a Greinke/KRod for Castellano/Rondon deal work?

[PrinceEatMeat]

Apparently Hamels made a comment today that he would consider returning to Philadelphia even if they trade him, so that's throwing more fuel on the fire that he'll be traded. Apparently Texas is seen is his likely destination, which we already basically knew. It's worth noting though, because Greinke's likely destinations are elsewhere then. If Texas gives up a big haul for him though, you have to think that'll improve the return Melvin gets for Greinke.

[logan82]

I probably said this a few pages back but it would be awesome to trade Greinke for a good SS then resign him after the season. Depending on what he asks anyway.