The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't expect both but if they won't talk either of them then to me there is no way a deal happens.

[paul253]

Bundy or Machado (or both) have to comeback for Greinke

 

Come on. They wouldn't even trade one of them for Greinke, let alone both. For Dylan Bundy I'd give them Greinke AND Marcum. He's the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg.

 

I don't think Baltimore matches up well. They seem a lot like Pittsburgh to me in that their top two prospects are so far ahead of their next best that unless the include one of the top two, which is unlikely, you are going to have to settle for quantity. Jonathan Schoop would be an upgrade over anyone we currently have at SS but he's still probably at least 2 years away and he doesn't seem like he should be the centerpiece of a deal. I think maybe Schoop for Marcum would be something to consider but not for Greinke.

[NievesNoNO]

Bundy or Machado (or both) have to comeback for Greinke

 

Come on. They wouldn't even trade one of them for Greinke, let alone both. For Dylan Bundy I'd give them Greinke AND Marcum. He's the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg.

 

I don't think Baltimore matches up well. They seem a lot like Pittsburgh to me in that their top two prospects are so far ahead of their next best that unless the include one of the top two, which is unlikely, you are going to have to settle for quantity. Jonathan Schoop would be an upgrade over anyone we currently have at SS but he's still probably at least 2 years away and he doesn't seem like he should be the centerpiece of a deal. I think maybe Schoop for Marcum would be something to consider but not for Greinke.

 

I agree that they don't really match up well with Baltimore. Marcum for Shoop would be solid and a possibility if Marcum could come back strong. I still think Texas or Detroit match up better in level of prospect and/or type of player Melvin is likely to target.

[Oldcity]

Yeah, Bundy is the best high school pitching prospect since Kershaw. He won't move. Machado was the first thing I thought of though when they said no pitching. He'd be a great prize by himself, and I'd even throw in another smaller piece to get him.

 

Something like Schoop, Matusz, prospect doesn't interest me much. That's quantity over quality.

[RockCoCougars]

If the Orioles don't want to give a shortstop that likely wont be ready until 2014 at the earliest (when they already have one locked in), well, they can pound sand. If these teams are going to hoard shortstop prospects, then let them go for their plan B.

[KCBrewerfan34]

If The Orioles don't include one of the top 2 Melvin should pass. Don't underestimate Angelos, he's a terrible owner and just may be desperate enough to pull the trigger on something crazy. Machado is not lighting things up at AA, he's only 19 though. Bundy is still at Class A I think.

[KCBrewerfan34]

If you think I'm (we're) being delusional take a look at what the Phillies want for Hamels.

[Funketown]

A good ol' fashioned fleecing is just what the doctor ordered. The Orioles have to be absolutely desperate to make a playoff appearance at this point. Machado fills a huge hole in this organization and we all know that.

 

If you can get a top 10 MLB prospect and change for Greinke and change I just don't see how you turn it down if you're the Brewers. Let's hope they don't think they can still "contend" a while longer...

[Raw Biz]

If you think I'm (we're) being delusional take a look at what the Phillies want for Hamels.

 

There's a difference between what you want and what you will get. I think everybody knows the Phillies won't get their asking price.

[paul253]

If you think I'm (we're) being delusional take a look at what the Phillies want for Hamels.

The Phillies I believe said they wanted 3-4 prospects? I assume it would be similar to what the Brewers gave up for Sabathia. LaPorta was a top prospect and Brantley was pretty well regarded too. Then there were two lower ceiling pitching prospects. That's quite a bit different than asking for two of the top prospects in all of baseball, including one who some considered to be the one of the best high school pitchers ever. I don't want to seem like a jerk and certainly if Baltimore comes calling you ask for Bundy or Machado. I just think it's extremely unlikely they give either of them up. But giving them both up for Greinke.....well maybe that is a wee bit delusional.

 

Like I said, I would be happy to give up both Greinke and Marcum for Dylan Bundy. I think he is going to be that good.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Haha, I figured this Baltimore rumor would start the Bundy and Machado talk, but this is the same as the Profar thing. There's just no way Baltimore gives up either of those 2. They'd be really stupid if they did. Obviously Melvin is smart enough to ask for those guys, but it won't get further than that. It's fine to ask for those guys, but it's no realistic to expect to get them for 2 months of Greinke. Either way, both of those teams have other intriguing prospects that would be nice to get in a trade. It won't take top 10 prospects in baseball for Melvin to get back a nice return. People need to lower their expectations a little bit, or they'll immediately consider anything Melvin gets as a failure, when that shouldn't be the case.

[nate82]

It won't take top 10 prospects in baseball for Melvin to get back a nice return. People need to lower their expectations a little bit, or they'll immediately consider anything Melvin gets as a failure, when that shouldn't be the case.

 

Well there is reality and then there is a perceived reality. People will come on here and just like the FALSE rumors of Hart for Cain keep on repeating them like they are true every chance they can get. There will be some off the chart rumor that will be about Baltimore and someone will link Greinke to Bundy or Machado and that will then get made into Melvin was offered Machado and other prospects for Greinke but turned it down for something else.

[jwill535]

The best news to me is that now we have at least 3 teams that are seriously expressing interest. While it may not be enough to get a top 10 prospect, this is going to help them get alittle more for Greinke. This is all provided that Zach signs off on them. Now the question is, do we have Zach help scout those players?

[hyerbro1]

Good point on the competition, Jwill.

 

For those you dreaming of Profar or Machado, when was the last time a player ranked that high was traded during a deadline deal for a rental player? It very well could have happened but I can't remember one.

 

The gold standard for these types of deals is the Astros/Mariners deal for Randy Johnson in 1998. Mariners received Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, and John Halama. Guillen and Garcia were not in the top 100 in 1998, but were both ranked in the 60-70 range for 1999.

[SRB]

I can imagine a world where half-season Greinke gets one of Bundy/Machado; GMs can be very unpredictable and I'm often surprised by the returns that pitching can sometimes get in a trade (also the possibility of a pre-trade extension agreement).

 

But the Orioles are playing for what, the second wild card? I feel like that's not the scenario where you give up a top 10 prospect. An arms race between Texas and Los Angeles would be that kind of scenario.

[PrinceEatMeat]

It won't take top 10 prospects in baseball for Melvin to get back a nice return. People need to lower their expectations a little bit, or they'll immediately consider anything Melvin gets as a failure, when that shouldn't be the case.

 

Well there is reality and then there is a perceived reality. People will come on here and just like the FALSE rumors of Hart for Cain keep on repeating them like they are true every chance they can get. There will be some off the chart rumor that will be about Baltimore and someone will link Greinke to Bundy or Machado and that will then get made into Melvin was offered Machado and other prospects for Greinke but turned it down for something else.

 

Yep exactly. That's why I'm saying that people need to cool down their expectations, and not automatically assume that because the Brewers are linked to a team in trade rumors, that they'll automatically be able to get their best prospects in return. That's just what seems to happen all the time. Just like the Hart for Cain made up rumor that you mentioned. People wanted to believe that was on the table, and then others started to believe that was actually true. I just don't get it. What is good though is that Melvin should be able to get a better return for Greinke if multiple teams are interested. It won't be top 10 prospects, but it'll be better than it previously would have. Competition is always good in these cases.

[JosephC]

I can't see any situation where Baltimore would trade Bundy to the Brewers.

 

Machado for Greinke...maybe...but it would have to be part of a much larger deal where the remainder would have to heavily favor the Orioles. I just don't see the Orioles being interested in a straight up Greinke/Machado swap...but the Brewers might be able to pry Machado away from Baltimore if they'd sweeten the pot enough. It would very likely have to contain another piece that would help the Orioles right now. Maybe something like Greinke and Aoki and Jungmann for Machado and Matusz.

 

In the end I don't see either Bundy or Machado ending up in a Brewer uniform. Bundy = 0% chance. Machado probably something like 10%.

 

IMO a potential deal with the Orioles would come down to what Melvin thinks of Matusz. I still think Melvin will put a priority on getting a major league starter back that he feels comfortable with putting into the rotation and getting 180+ MLB innings out of him in 2013. But it's hard for me to believe that Melvin would see Matusz as that guy. He is now over 350 MLB innings and has a 5.51 ERA. If Melvin likes Matusz I could see a scenario where the Brewers get Schoop and a few spare parts for Greinke : Schoop, Matusz, reliever Troy Patton and maybe another prospect (first baseman Aaron Baker?)...but I don't see it happening because of the uncertainty with Matusz. I just don't see the Orioles as being a good trading partner, they don't have a "decent" MLB starter that they could afford to part with in a Greinke trade...and I think that will be a big, big priority for Melvin if he deals Greinke.

[FVBrewerFan]

Bundy, yea they won't give up. Machado is the price they would have to pay for Greinke. Now, they may very well not be willing to give him up, but that's the type of deal the Brewers should be demanding and expecting. I don't think it's over-reaching at all based on similar situations in recent years.

 

I get the O's would be giving up their future SS, but that's the price you pay to "go all in." Espeically since there are very, very few starters at greinke's level out there.

 

There's just no reason to trade Greinke for a couple of guys with good upside. They would be better off getting the comp picks. Giving a team a top of the rotation starter for the pennant drive requires a true top shelf prospect.

[Wiscollector]

JosephC raises an interesting question we keep hearing how Profar, Machado and the like are untouchable when it comes to a rental deal for Greinke. But what about throwing in one of our top 10 prospects to get a top 10-15 prospect in all of baseball?

 

Greinke and Jungmann/Peralta/Gennett (or the like) for Profar or Machado

[FVBrewerFan]

Absolutely not. No way we give up a prospect. O's need a top quality SP if they really want to compete. Not Melvin's job to make it an easy decision for them.

[Eye Black]

Its interesting to read the Orioles fans reaction who don't want Schoop to be included in the deal for Greinke contrasted with Brewers fans demanding Bundy or Machado. Reality seems somewhere in between.

 

As others have stated, Bundy is as untouchable as Profar, and Machado is very close to the same. As Joseph mentioned, Machado would require more than just Greinke from the Brewers. For the Brewers to make a deal with the Orioles they would have to be willing to take quantity (3-4 prospects including Schoop, Matusz/Arrietta, etc.) over quality (one top 20 prospect). I wouldn't put it past the Brewers to go for a quantity deal, especially if the deal included a starting pitcher that would be ready for next season's rotation. Other teams that could offer attractive quantity-type packages include the Dodgers, Angels, and Rangers.

 

Despite this, I am still hopeful the Brewers will holdout for a high ceiling prospect. I think it is very possible that one of the interested teams will eventually give-up a top prospect that ranks somewhere in the 10-25 range on the most current prospect lists. Best examples cited so far would be the Braves (Teheran), Tigers (Castellanos or Turner), or Rangers (Olt). There are other teams worth checking in with regarding their top prospects: Indians (Francisco Lindor), Cardinals (Carlos Martinez or Shelby Miller), Red Sox (Xander Bogaerts), but those teams appear unlikely trade partners at this point.

[reillymcshane]

Texas has lost five in a row. Maybe a good losing streak will make them more apt to pony up for Greinke.

[Oldcity]

I like the guy who says he could stomach giving up Schoop IF Greinke signs an extension.

[Dollarbill13]

JosephC raises an interesting question we keep hearing how Profar, Machado and the like are untouchable when it comes to a rental deal for Greinke. But what about throwing in one of our top 10 prospects to get a top 10-15 prospect in all of baseball?

 

Greinke and Jungmann/Peralta/Gennett (or the like) for Profar or Machado

 

I'd be very tempted to do a trade like that as long as we aren't giving up Thorny, especially if we could get Profar. I doubt Texas or Baltimore would bite, but it's worth a shot.

[joepepsi]

I'd like Machado and Troy Patton. Patton's prospect status has all but disappeared, but he's doing a good job of re-inventing himself as a reliever in Norfolk. Brewers could throw him in the pen for the rest of the season.

 

Or, if not Machado, then Schoop and Arrieta. Brewers drafter Arrieta out of high school but he choose to go to college. Kranitz should be familiar with these pitchers since he was Orioles pitching coach for a couple years. He may think he can straighten out Arrieta or Matusz.

 

Another guy I haven't seen mentioned here is Zach Britton. He's coming off an injury and not back to his old self yet, but before Bundy came on the scene he was their top pitching prospect. Made 28 starts last year in Baltimore and fared all right--154 ip, 11-11, 4.61 ERA.

 

I think the Orioles and Brewers match up quite well. Brewers need a pitcher and ss. Orioles have choices in both categories to offer up.