The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[TooLiveBrew]

Please, do not trade Aoki. Can't we get good players for once and try to hang onto them, not try to trade them off as soon as we see they have value?

 

I agree that I don't want to see Aoki traded, as we need good, inexpensive players. However, who in the heck have we traded off as soon as we saw they have value? Who have we traded off when we saw they didn't have value? Who on the MLB team has been traded since Carlos Lee six years ago?

That was my exact thought when I read what you quoted, monty. Melvin's m.o. is to keep big-league guys instead of trying to capitalize on value via trade/'sell high'.

[fondybrewfan]

Well considering the Brewers have been in contenttion virtually every year since the Carlos Lee trade it makes sense that Melvin hasn't traded off MLB pieces that have value. After all he is trying to win games. An MLB GM is not about to trade a proven vet that can help his team make the playoffs for a prospect that may or may not pan out.

 

I can't fault Melvin for not "selling high" on guys because the Brewers have been competitive and selling off good/high value players during a period of success doesn't make a whole lot of sense (In the near term while trying to make the playoffs).

[RockCoCougars]

Let Greinke walk, and what do you do with the money? Look at the free agents for the coming off-season.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html

 

Pretty brutal. If Greinke is allowed to leave, I think that given the state of the farm system, they may as well do a complete rebuild, putting guys like Gallardo and Lucroy out there (basically anyone but Braun). Unfortunately, Melvin would not be in the position to do that, so it's a given that they will spend the money by overpaying someone like Dempster/Lohse and some other mediocre and/or old free agent starting pitcher.

[markedman5]

Hart is not making ridiculous money when compared to production and either is Ramirez. The risk with AR is what he will do in the next 2 years. It's not a given that he will fall off dramatically.

 

I love Hart at first. If we can sign him to reasonable deal I hope we extend him. Gamel and Green are unproven. I don't want to roll the dice with too many of those guys when we have perfectly good players already under contract.

 

Now if you don't resign Greinke and go into rebuild mode(not MA's MO) then maybe we consider it but attendance will take a hit and I'm not excited about the prospect of wasting Ryan Braun's prime by trading away 2 of our best hitters just because they aren't making the minimum.

[PilprinBuddha]

You can be competative with solid pitching. I'd roll with Gamel at 1st, Green at 3rd, and Scooter at 2nd if need be.

[splitterpfj]

Jon Heyman has reported that the Brewers offered Greinke a 5 yr deal in the 100M range about a week ago. Doug Melvin won't comment, but according to the MLB Network, Greinke stated, "That's pretty accurate."

[TURBO]

I should have been more clear in my post above when it comes to trading Aoki. What I meant was that everytime we get a guy who is good, and has value, there is always someone here saying we should trade them while we can... I didn't mean we have actually traded away all our good guys, what I meant was that there is always someone here wanting to trade those guys...

 

Sorry for the confusion.

[502 to Right]

If they offered him Cain terriotory money and he doesn't take it, wow. That seems pretty fair. Can't fault the Brewers then. I love Greinke, but if someone wants to pay him more than Cain is getting, they can go right ahead.

 

 

Agreed.

 

I don't even get where anyone could think Greinke is the superior pitcher to Cain. Other than Greinke's Cy Young season, Cain has consistently been better than Greinke over the last 5 seasons. He's also built like a horse and doesn't have any "issues" that need to be worried about.

 

Personally, I think Greinke would be a fool to turn down over $100 million guaranteed right now. It also allows him to pitch in a park and market that he clearly seems comfortable in--which can't be said with any certainly for other places he could go.

[brwrsfan]

So if it's pretty accurate according to Greinke....what does that mean?

 

That he rejected it? Melvin's comments seem to say that.

 

That he is contemplating it? That he is going to counter? Makes it even more confusing.

[TURBO]

"Rolling" with those players, especially at two power positions would be pretty damn risky. Doesn't matter how good our pitching is, if we can't score runs, we can't be competitive.

 

We still don't know what we have in Gamel and Green, so going into a season with them starting at 1B and 3B would be a ridiculous gamble.

[fondybrewfan]

Going in with Gamel I would be OK with; going in with Green at 3rd would terrify me; same with Scooter.

[PrinceEatMeat]

So if it's pretty accurate according to Greinke....what does that mean?

 

That he rejected it? Melvin's comments seem to say that.

 

That he is contemplating it? That he is going to counter? Makes it even more confusing.

 

Greinke is about as vague as any player ever, so nobody will know what it means until after the fact most likely. If he gets traded it means he rejected it. If he ends up signing then we know he considered and accepted. If he ends up staying with the Brewers past the deadline and not signing then we still won't know what's going on. Knowing Greinke and the Brewers, the last one is the most likely.

[endaround]

That "payroll" assumes the Brewers will pay Carlos Gomez $7m next year in their arby calculations.

 

Here is what they assume for each player:

 

Morgan $3.75M--reasonable

Loe $5.25M--not happening

Veras $5.25M--not happening

Gomez $7M--Yeah....

Parra $5.25M---sure....

Kottarras $3.75M--not happening

Axford $2.5M--possible

Ishikawa $2.5M---not happening

Narveson $2.5M--not happening

Estrad $2.5M possible but likely on the high side.

 

So that $40M is closer to $20M assuming they even bring back all those players. So can we stop with the $98M committed payroll?

[TURBO]

There is a chance he rejects it, forcing the Brewers to trade him to a contender THIS season. Who's to say he doesn't want to pitch into the playoffs this year, and still have his chance to sign a big pay off in free agency?

 

If he sees no reason to think this team is going anyplace this season, why not jump ship, and have his pick of a few different places to land in his next contract? He could then choose a team that will be contenders (in his opinion) for the life of his next contract instead of possibly being part of a rebuilding project here. Hell, he could still accept that offer in Milwaukee, and have the opportunity to pitch in the play-offs someplace else this season.

[FVBrewerFan]

Jon Heyman has reported that the Brewers offered Greinke a 5 yr deal in the 100M range about a week ago. Doug Melvin won't comment, but according to the MLB Network, Greinke stated, "That's pretty accurate."

 

That could also explain why he's skipping a start. One or both sides may want to give him time to think about it exclusively. Hard to concentrate on a huge decision in your life, and propoerly prepare to pitch at the same time. And I would think Greinke even more than others.

 

It sure SOUNDS like Melvin is throwing his best offer out there with a deadline. If Greinke doesn't accept he'll be traded for the best deal Melvin can get. I really expect one or the other, I don't see him being here past the trade deadline without an extension signed.

[TheCrew07]

o that $40M is closer to $20M assuming they even bring back all those players. So can we stop with the $98M committed payroll?

 

You still have to pay for the replacements, which of course you didn't factor into your rant. Sure the $ wouldn't technically be committed if you non tender existing players, but where do the replacement players come from and how much to do they cost?

 

The original point still stands and that payroll figure is not outrageously overstated.

[BrewersAA]

I should have been more clear in my post above when it comes to trading Aoki. What I meant was that everytime we get a guy who is good, and has value, there is always someone here saying we should trade them while we can... I didn't mean we have actually traded away all our good guys, what I meant was that there is always someone here wanting to trade those guys...

 

Sorry for the confusion.

 

Please dont take me out of context, I was not saying to trade him just because he has value, I said if the brewers think that Gindl is as good then they should trade him. Gindl is younger, has more power, and is in his second AAA season. No reason to block him if you think hes as good.

[monty57]

I should have been more clear in my post above when it comes to trading Aoki. What I meant was that everytime we get a guy who is good, and has value, there is always someone here saying we should trade them while we can... I didn't mean we have actually traded away all our good guys, what I meant was that there is always someone here wanting to trade those guys...

 

Sorry for the confusion.

 

Well in that you are 100% accurate. I think there are people speculating on who next year's draft picks will be so that they can decide if we will be able to trade them by 2016.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Jon Heyman has reported that the Brewers offered Greinke a 5 yr deal in the 100M range about a week ago. Doug Melvin won't comment, but according to the MLB Network, Greinke stated, "That's pretty accurate."

 

That could also explain why he's skipping a start. One or both sides may want to give him time to think about it exclusively. Hard to concentrate on a huge decision in your life, and propoerly prepare to pitch at the same time. And I would think Greinke even more than others.

 

It sure SOUNDS like Melvin is throwing his best offer out there with a deadline. If Greinke doesn't accept he'll be traded for the best deal Melvin can get. I really expect one or the other, I don't see him being here past the trade deadline without an extension signed.

 

I would hope so, but I don't see him being traded if they keep winning games here in the next week or so.

[TheCrew07]

"Rolling" with those players, especially at two power positions would be pretty damn risky. Doesn't matter how good our pitching is, if we can't score runs, we can't be competitive.

 

Actually it does matter how good the pitching is...

 

ESPN.com works the best for this, but you can open up multiple windows or tabs and look at team ranks by year for league or MLB wide for both pitching and hitting, see which more closely correlates to success.

 

For example in 2010 San Fran gave up the 2nd least amount of runs allowed during the season but only scored the 17th most runs. In 2008 Tampa tied with the Cubs for the 3rd least runs allowed in the league while coming in #13 for runs scored.

 

It's much easier to get to the post season being a pitching heavy team than it is to be hitting heavy.

[endaround]

o that $40M is closer to $20M assuming they even bring back all those players. So can we stop with the $98M committed payroll?

 

You still have to pay for the replacements, which of course you didn't factor into your rant. Sure the $ wouldn't technically be committed if you non tender existing players, but where do the replacement players come from and how much to do they cost?

 

The original point still stands and that payroll figure is not outrageously overstated.

 

 

How is not outrageously overstated? They project spending $18M on Gomez, Parra and Low. Those three might come to $7-8M combined.

[SRB]

I just don't see how the Brewers can afford Greinke at $100+ million.

 

Just looking at 2013, adding together guaranteed payroll and estimated arbitration, you have around $76 million committed to returning players. If you give Greinke $20-23 million, you have $96-99 million tied up. But you still need to find a starting shortstop (unless you want Ransom/Bianchi as everyday players...), and you basically need to sign 1-2 free agent SP. Fiers has been great but realistically he's probably a #5-type starter, same as Estrada, same as Narveson (who might not even be a regular starter again). The rotation simply wouldn't be good enough without bringing in a free agent SP or two, unless you have barrels of faith in Thornburg/Peralta/Rogers to suddenly be middle-of-the-rotation starters right out of the gate.

 

And that's assuming Gomez in CF, Aoki in RF, and Hart at 1B. To be competitive it would probably be best to use Gomez/Aoki in CF, Hart in RF, and sign a free agent 1B.

 

There's not enough money to sign Greinke and field a competitive team, imo. And that likely only gets worse in 2014, when A-Ram is suddenly making $16 million and a bunch of players salaries increase via contract or arbitration.

 

*Edit* You are also stuck with a pretty craptastic bullpen, unless a bunch of players turn things around. If Axford doesn't recover, the organization will probably have to pay for a closer next year too.

[1992casey]

Jon Heyman has reported that the Brewers offered Greinke a 5 yr deal in the 100M range about a week ago. Doug Melvin won't comment, but according to the MLB Network, Greinke stated, "That's pretty accurate."

The number Trenni stated was $112 million.

[FVBrewerFan]

I just don't see how the Brewers can afford Greinke at $100+ million.

 

Just looking at 2013, adding together guaranteed payroll and estimated arbitration, you have around $76 million committed to returning players. If you give Greinke $20-23 million, you have $96-99 million tied up. But you still need to find a starting shortstop (unless you want Ransom/Bianchi as everyday players...), and you basically need to sign 1-2 free agent SP. Fiers has been great but realistically he's probably a #5-type starter, same as Estrada, same as Narveson (who might not even be a regular starter again). The rotation simply wouldn't be good enough without bringing in a free agent SP or two, unless you have barrels of faith in Thornburg/Peralta/Rogers to suddenly be middle-of-the-rotation starters right out of the gate.

 

And that's assuming Gomez in CF, Aoki in RF, and Hart at 1B. To be competitive it would probably be best to use Gomez/Aoki in CF, Hart in RF, and sign a free agent 1B.

 

There's not enough money to sign Greinke and field a competitive team, imo. And that likely only gets worse in 2014, when A-Ram is suddenly making $16 million and a bunch of players salaries increase via contract or arbitration.

 

*Edit* You are also stuck with a pretty craptastic bullpen, unless a bunch of players turn things around. If Axford doesn't recover, the organization will probably have to pay for a closer next year too.

 

You can trade ARam or Hart and you're down to $85MM or so. And that's on the high end, because I don't think arby pushes the payroll up $10MM.

[SRB]

I just don't see how the Brewers can afford Greinke at $100+ million.

 

Just looking at 2013, adding together guaranteed payroll and estimated arbitration, you have around $76 million committed to returning players. If you give Greinke $20-23 million, you have $96-99 million tied up. But you still need to find a starting shortstop (unless you want Ransom/Bianchi as everyday players...), and you basically need to sign 1-2 free agent SP. Fiers has been great but realistically he's probably a #5-type starter, same as Estrada, same as Narveson (who might not even be a regular starter again). The rotation simply wouldn't be good enough without bringing in a free agent SP or two, unless you have barrels of faith in Thornburg/Peralta/Rogers to suddenly be middle-of-the-rotation starters right out of the gate.

 

And that's assuming Gomez in CF, Aoki in RF, and Hart at 1B. To be competitive it would probably be best to use Gomez/Aoki in CF, Hart in RF, and sign a free agent 1B.

 

There's not enough money to sign Greinke and field a competitive team, imo. And that likely only gets worse in 2014, when A-Ram is suddenly making $16 million and a bunch of players salaries increase via contract or arbitration.

 

*Edit* You are also stuck with a pretty craptastic bullpen, unless a bunch of players turn things around. If Axford doesn't recover, the organization will probably have to pay for a closer next year too.

 

You can trade ARam or Hart and you're down to $85MM or so. And that's on the high end, because I don't think arby pushes the payroll up $10MM.

 

That's true, but can you see Melvin signing Greinke and then trading A-Ram or Hart? Seems unlikely to me.

 

And there are lots of arbitration-eligible players next year: Morgan (ARB2), Loe (ARB3), Veras (ARB3), Gomez (ARB4), Parra (ARB3), Ransom (ARB2), Kottaras (ARB2), Axford (ARB1), Narveson (ARB1), Estrada (ARB1)

 

Most of those players will be making a few million via arbitration. I was actually conservative by assuming Loe & others will be non-tendered.