The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[torts]

per MLBTR.com

 

July 20th: The Brewers offered Greinke a five-year deal worth $100MM-plus sometime in the past few weeks, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. However, there's no indication the right-hander will sign quickly. One person told Heyman the proposed extension was worth close to $112.5MM -- Matt Cain territory.

 

If that second number is true, the Brewers did everything they could (and then some) to sign him and if he turns that down, thats it. That's way more than just window dressing.

 

I concur

[BrewCrewForever]

If they offered him Cain terriotory money and he doesn't take it, wow. That seems pretty fair. Can't fault the Brewers then. I love Greinke, but if someone wants to pay him more than Cain is getting, they can go right ahead.

[PilprinBuddha]

More and more I get the idea that he is staying.

[BrewersAA]

This would be great if he signs! But, I hope that, if signed, it doesnt cause melvin to hang out to the rest of his trade pieces. they should get something for wolf, anything, they should get marcum one start before the deadline and swing him for something pretty good I think he would slide nicely into the Mets rotation (for wilmer flores and domingo tapia). the Dodgers want Aram, they should be able to have him and they are loaded with good young pitching in high and double A. Also, if the brewers think that Gindl can be as good as Aoki they should trade Aoki while his value is high.

 

Does anyone see the Indians as a dark horse for Greinke? I think that they need pitching, they are three games out, and they have three stud SS prospects, cant keep them all, they would also be a good landing spot for Aoki.

[TURBO]

2 things:

 

1. Why does anyone think our bullpen has made a significant turn around? The only change we made was putting K-Rod into the closers role. By the way, both of his saves were of the tight-rope variety. He looked horrible, but somehow battled through and saved the games. He can implode just as easily in his next shot. I don't think our bull pen woes are over after a 2 game sampling. There is nothing that tells me our bull pen is now solved, and we are now in 2011 form. Until I see some clean 9th innings with a lead, and someone step up on a regular basis and pitch like a major league pitcher out of the bullpen , I don't think this bullpen will magically be solved by switching K-Rod to closer.

 

2. Skipping Greinke's starts was completely asinine if we do intend to trade him, unless there is a team that we have a deal in place with who wanted him on the bench. That looks more and more doubtful as the days drag on. If Greinke pitches again this season in a Brewers uniform, this could go down as one of the strangest and dumbest moves yet in a season full of strange and dumb moves by our so called "manager."

[monty57]

A lot of people are saying on here that if we don't resign Greinke or trade him for prospects we are done for the next 2-3 years.

 

If we play out the season and don't trade or resign Greinke do you really think we are just going to go with Gallardo and a bunch of unproven rookies in the rotation. I understand Greinke is an elite pitcher but I highly doubt we lose Greinke and Marcum next year. So lets say we stand pat and do nothing at the deadline. We have a team capable of making a run at the playoffs and in the off season we lose Greinke, KRod we resign Marcum (hopefully he is healthy) and then go after a FA pitcher and look for SS and Bullpen help. I don't see how we are that much worse off next year, we certainly aren't going to be the Cubs or Stros this year.

 

Also those of you who say they don't care about the WC play in game are out of your mind. We have a VERY solid 1/2 punch in the rotation with another very solid likely somewhat fresh Marcum as a 3rd. Plus if there is any chance we make it to that WC play in game, you'd have to think our pen has made a significant turn around. So I don't see how, if we are to make the playoffs as a WC team, that we don't have a legitimate shot at being last years Cardinals. We have the pieces to make a run.

 

All these doom and gloom posts about wanting us to lose are ridiculous.

 

This is a handy little site another poster referred me to a while back:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2012-roster.shtml

 

As it shows, the estimated payroll liability next year - without Greinke - is $95.8MM if we don't exercise the Wolf & Gonzalez options, but we do offer arbitration to all who are arby eligible. We went into last offseason with a budget in the upper $80MM's, and went way overbudget when K-Rod accepted arby and Ramirez showed interest, and we decided to "go for it." It would seem that there is a good possibility that we will break even or lose money this year if we play through without trading anyone away.

 

We will have some additional revenue coming in next year, but it seems very likely that we will see a substantial decrease in attendance, so I doubt we'll have a $100MM payroll, much less a $115MM payroll. Attanasio in the past has said he would raise payroll for a "special player" like Sabathia and I would assume Greinke, so the $100MM payroll may happen if Greinke is signed. That won't be the case if we don't re-sign Greinke, so with $95.8MM staring at us, I would think we'd look to cut payroll rather than add, so I can't see how we'd keep everyone we have while adding moderately high-priced SP, SS and RPs.

 

All that said, I don't know what we do if we do extend Greinke, or even if we don't extend Greinke. I'd have to think that Hart will have to be traded, as we have Aoki playing RF for 10% of what Hart makes, and we have Gamel playing 1B for 5% of what Hart makes. Ramirez is hitting well, but trading him would free up $30MM over the next two years - that in itself is about 1/4 of what we'd pay Greinke over the next five or six years.

 

It's not "doom and gloom," at least not from me. It's simply looking at the big picture and trying to figure out how all the pieces fit into the puzzle. I think "selling" now would really help the team going forward, and I think the only way we "sell" is if we lose some games, particularly against the Reds starting tonight. If we don't sell now, and the previous posts stating that we've offered 5-year / $112MM to Greinke are true, we will be looking at around a $115-120MM payroll going into 2013. It would be great to think that's a sustainable level, but I don't believe it, especially if we see a decrease in attendance. That would lead me to believe that we will be looking to dump salary in the offseason, which may or may not be as "easy" as it is now (when the Dodgers seem to be begging to add salary).

 

If you can show me how you would put together a playoff-caliber team in 2013, without selling, and within a realistic budget, then I'd love to see it. Otherwise, please understand that those of us who are sadly saying that we think it's in the best interest of the franchise to lose a few games before trade deadline are doing it because we want to see the franchise look better going forward, not because we like hoping our favorite team loses.

 

*I feel that I need to P.S. that I am not condoning trading Greinke, Hart, Ramirez or anyone else for a substandard return. They should all garner some good young players if we decide to trade them, and of course we shouldn't trade them unless they bring good players back.

[trwi7]

they should get marcum one start before the deadline and swing him for something pretty good I think he would slide nicely into the Mets rotation (for wilmer flores and domingo tapia).

 

Marcum is hurt. You can't just take a guy off the DL when he's still hurt and have him pitch. He would suck and even if he managed to somehow not suck, he would fail his physical and the trade wouldn't happen.

[Funketown]

That works out to $22.5/year for 5 years if the Cain report is correct. I think that's about my break-even point for the Brewers signing Greinke. If he signs for anything more I'll probably be excited about next season but terrified about the future.

 

Even if Greinke is in the fold next season, we'd be looking at Greinke-Gallardo-Fiers-Estrada-???. Thornburg is clearly not ready to be an MLB starter. Rogers and Peralta both have struggled in AAA this season. We can't count on Narveson being back or effective. They'd likely need to go outside the organization for at least 1 starter, and that's counting on Estrada finishing the season well.

 

A lineup of Aoki-Lucroy-Braun-Ramirez-Hart-Weeks-CheapSS-Gomez would look pretty good so long as those guys stayed healthy.

 

I just don't know if bringing Greinke back is what's best for this club.

[BrewersAA]

I thought I heard he was on track to get one start before the deadline? He is cleared physically as well, the last update said that he was fine, sure wish he would have only missed one start like it was originally assumed. What bad luck for the brewers. Though, it has been nice getting to see Fiers given a chance!

[brwrsfan]

Slightly off topic. But is it that impossible to think that K-Rod comes back to close next season? Axford may very well never find it again (see Turnbow, Derrick)....K Rod could come back as the main closer. Not sure what that would cost, but the closer market last year wasn't that expensive really....

[torts]

That works out to $22.5/year for 5 years if the Cain report is correct. I think that's about my break-even point for the Brewers signing Greinke. If he signs for anything more I'll probably be excited about next season but terrified about the future.

 

Even if Greinke is in the fold next season, we'd be looking at Greinke-Gallardo-Fiers-Estrada-???. Thornburg is clearly not ready to be an MLB starter. Rogers and Peralta both have struggled in AAA this season. We can't count on Narveson being back or effective. They'd likely need to go outside the organization for at least 1 starter, and that's counting on Estrada finishing the season well.

 

A lineup of Aoki-Lucroy-Braun-Ramirez-Hart-Weeks-CheapSS-Gomez would look pretty good so long as those guys stayed healthy.

 

I just don't know if bringing Greinke back is what's best for this club.

 

why are we counting Narveson out? he had rotator-cuff surgery, which from my understanding, isnt career ending at all. he was a pretty effective #4/5 guy last season, I dont see why he wouldnt factor in to the team moving forward, especially with 2 more years of control. A rotation of Greinke/Gallardo/Narveson/Fiers/Estrada would be decent, as thats what we've had here for the last month as it is.

[TURBO]

they should get something for wolf, anything, they should get marcum one start before the deadline and swing him for something pretty good I think he would slide nicely into the Mets rotation Also, if the brewers think that Gindl can be as good as Aoki they should trade Aoki while his value is high.

 

 

Who in their right mind would trade anything for Wolf? Not to mention, there must be something in his contract stating that Kottaras must be in the deal too. No one wants Wolf, get over that and move on people...

 

Can't start Marcum just to be starting him. The guy is on the DL, starting him before he was ready would be dumb to say the least.

 

Please, do not trade Aoki. Can't we get good players for once and try to hang onto them, not try to trade them off as soon as we see they have value? He doesn't cost much, and so far has been a great addition to this team. Keep Aoki.

[TURBO]

Pinning any hopes on Narveson for 2013 at this point would not be wise. You ask why we are counting him out, perhaps a better question is why are you counting him in? If he helps us out, GREAT! but I do not think you can head into next seson and expect anything of value out of him. That is setting us up for failure to say the least.

 

Counting on a guy who just had rotator cuff surgery as your #3 would be asking for a lot of trouble. If he is able to contribute and at some point next season, be able to spot start or fill in for an injured starter, that is all I'm hoping to get out of him. He wasn't special enough before his injury to even remotetly consider him as a #3 going into next season.

[TURBO]

I hope not. I am to the point that I can't stand seeing him pitch any longer. He is a heart attack waiting to happen.

[monty57]

... Greinke-Gallardo-Fiers-Estrada-??? ...A lineup of Aoki-Lucroy-Braun-Ramirez-Hart-Weeks-CheapSS-Gomez

 

That, of course is assuming we are able to sustain a $118MM payroll. If not, then you'd have to assume that at least some of our higher priced players (Hart, Ramirez, Weeks) will be gone.

 

I just don't know if bringing Greinke back is what's best for this club.

 

Me either, it seems that people are starting to believe that he is going to walk on water on his way to the bank while curing some blind guys along the way. IIRC, Greinke has been on a total of one winning team in his tenure (last year's Brewers)... he can't do it alone, and if we pay 1/4 of our payroll to him (and 3/4 of payroll to eight players), with little to no really good pre-arby talent, I don't know how we'll sustain a playoff-caliber team around him.

 

I really think the best/only way to make a Greinke deal work is to immediately (before next season) trade Hart & Ramirez for good, young, pre-arby guys. We probably won't because that could weaken the 2013 roster, but it would give us what we need... good pre-arby talent and some financial flexibility.

[JohnBriggs12]

The arbitration cost estimate of around $40 million is way too high. Some of the higher priced guys will be non tendered (Loe and Morgan). I figure it's closer to about $24 million for everyone they'll actually keep and that may be a bit high too as Axford is losing some cash this season. That puts the payroll next year without Greinke at around $80 million. There's room there to add a FA starter and a reliever or two and come in under $100 million.

[BrewersAA]

Thornburg is clearly not ready to be an MLB starter. Rogers and Peralta both have struggled in AAA this season. We can't count on Narveson being back or effective. They'd likely need to go outside the organization for at least 1 starter, and that's counting on Estrada finishing the season well.

 

I think its a little early yet to say Thornburg isnt ready, his last start wasnt* good, but we've all seen worse. His first start was actually really good until his third time through two of the ALs best power hitters this season. But, you may be right, I just think he needs another 2-3 starts to evaluate his readiness for the level.

 

Rogers and Peralta both struggled for a half season, so did that entire team. Both of them are currently on very good runs, its very encouraging. Peralta have put together 4 good starts in a row, his stats over the stretch are 22.1 ip / 1 earned run / 21 k / 7bb. He's also only had one bad start over his last eight. Rogers has also finally pitched well putting together consecutive dominant starts, 14 ip / 1 earned / 1 walk / 13 k. Also, not to give him too much credit, Rogers (and willy) is pitching in a hitters league. Nashville is one of the few places in the league that isnt a total/ridiculous hitters park, Rogers has a 2.98 era at home this season. given all of that, I think they are both on track for September and will be in the mix for a rotation spot next spring.

 

A lineup of Aoki-Lucroy-Braun-Ramirez-Hart-Weeks-CheapSS-Gomez would look pretty good so long as those guys stayed healthy.

 

I just don't know if bringing Greinke back is what's best for this club.

 

Completely agree on both.

[Oldcity]

Really not at all comfortable with the Brewers paying any pitcher $112 million, and I really like Greinke. It's just too much of a risk for a team with their payroll capacity.

 

The Cain extension ruined the chance of keeping Greinke. The best thing that could happen now for the Brewers is to pull off a nice trade.

[dlk9s]

For me, I'm torn. I really want Greinke to remain a Brewer, but I'm nervous about paying him too much (like I would any pitcher). I want to them make a playoff push with him, but I'm also not confident it's possible and want to get something for him in a trade.

 

I think I've decided to just not worry about it and hope for the best. What will be, will be. Go Brewers.

[PilprinBuddha]

I would be perfectly fine resigning Grienke and trading ARAM and consider moving Hart or Weeks.

[GormanHarvey]

That works out to $22.5/year for 5 years if the Cain report is correct. I think that's about my break-even point for the Brewers signing Greinke. If he signs for anything more I'll probably be excited about next season but terrified about the future.

 

Even if Greinke is in the fold next season, we'd be looking at Greinke-Gallardo-Fiers-Estrada-???. Thornburg is clearly not ready to be an MLB starter. Rogers and Peralta both have struggled in AAA this season. We can't count on Narveson being back or effective. They'd likely need to go outside the organization for at least 1 starter, and that's counting on Estrada finishing the season well.

 

A lineup of Aoki-Lucroy-Braun-Ramirez-Hart-Weeks-CheapSS-Gomez would look pretty good so long as those guys stayed healthy.

 

I just don't know if bringing Greinke back is what's best for this club.

 

why are we counting Narveson out? he had rotator-cuff surgery, which from my understanding, isnt career ending at all. he was a pretty effective #4/5 guy last season, I dont see why he wouldnt factor in to the team moving forward, especially with 2 more years of control. A rotation of Greinke/Gallardo/Narveson/Fiers/Estrada would be decent, as thats what we've had here for the last month as it is.

 

He had surgery on his rotator cuff AND his labrum, which often times is not a very successful surgery. Not to mention, this is his second surgery on that shoulder in addition to Tommy John surgery on his elbow. I would say you'd be hard pressed to "count on" Narveson for next year. If you do get something productive, it should probably be considered gravy.

 

As far as Greinke goes, if that offer isn't enough to keep him somewhere that he is obviously comfortable and pitches well, I see ya later. I'm a huge Greinke fan, but if all this is true I will sour towards him somewhat. I get so sick of the greed (if that is the case.)

[monty57]

The Cain extension ruined the chance of keeping Greinke.

 

...without seriously risking the financial solvancy of the team. Sure they could "back up the truck," but are they dumb enough to do it if it will lead to fire sales in the future?

 

why are we counting Narveson out?

 

Because he's hitting arby, which means we would have to guarantee him a million dollars or so when we probably won't even be able to see him throw a ball until after the arby's been accepted. Its' possible he remains with the Brewers, but unless we get some really promising news, I'd guess they'll decline arby and re-sign him to a minor league deal, which I believe is what they did with Capuano in a similar situation.

 

Please, do not trade Aoki. Can't we get good players for once and try to hang onto them, not try to trade them off as soon as we see they have value?

 

I agree that I don't want to see Aoki traded, as we need good, inexpensive players. However, who in the heck have we traded off as soon as we saw they have value? Who have we traded off when we saw they didn't have value? Who on the MLB team has been traded since Carlos Lee six years ago?

[PilprinBuddha]

After looking at those salaries...I'd totally try to deal ARAM, Hart, and Weeks. They are all making rediculous amounts compared to production. ARAM is fine now, but in two years he is crazy. Send him to LA for little or nothing....And I was an ardent supporter of keeping him. I didn't realize it was so back loaded.

[reillymcshane]

The team can save quite a bit by non-tendering several players or trading them. This includes:

 

Morgan

Kottaras

Loe

Parra

Ishikawa

Gomez

 

Some of these guys will, undoubtedly, stay on the team. But many of them are questionable, and you could potentially replace with other, cheaper players (such as Schafer for Nyjer Morgan).

[monty57]

After looking at those salaries...I'd totally try to deal ARAM, Hart, and Weeks. They are all making rediculous amounts compared to production. ARAM is fine now, but in two years he is crazy. Send him to LA for little or nothing....And I was an ardent supporter of keeping him. I didn't realize it was so back loaded.

 

Welcome to my world... it's scary here :-)

 

The good thing is that with the Dodgers new owners trying to show how rich they are, I honestly believe we could get the "Jed Lowrie package" of Zach Lee and Gould for Ramirez. A few weeks ago, I would've thought he was untradeable in anything but a complete salary dump, but now I think we have a chance to get some decent prospects back without paying his salary.

 

We're losing Hart after next season, and by trading him before next season starts the receiving team would get the compensatory pick, so I'd like to see what he could bring on the open market prior to next year.

 

I'd hold Weeks to see if he can get the ship straightened out. He's a good player, and I don't want to trade him when his value is at it's lows.

 

The team can save quite a bit by non-tendering several players or trading them.

 

But how do they replace them? We need a bullpen, and if Veras, Low and Parra are non-tendered, we will pay at least $5MM for any decent veteran arm we bring in. Probably $3-4MM for not-so-decent veteran arms that will make us throw things at the TV next year. I can't imaging we're going to bring five or six rookies up from the system to fill out our bullpen when we just signed a near-record-breaking deal for Greinke.

 

Gomez and Morgan could be dropped to save $5-6MM. That's why I've been calling for a Morgan trade since Braun was exonerated - I'd rather get something than nothing for these guys... maybe we could even trade them for a bullpen arm to help solve the problem from the paragraph above. The problem is, we either need to trade them now, lose them for nothing, or offer them arby and risk not being able to trade them (meaning we'd have to pay them next year). In my opinion, the best answer there is "trade them now," but that would mean that Melvin would have to break down and trade someone.

 

The arbitration cost estimate of around $40 million is way too high... I figure it's closer to about $24 million for everyone they'll actually keep

 

I hope you're right, but assuming they're off by 40% might be a stretch. Also, remember that we need to replace those guys that we don't keep, and we don't have a lot of guys coming up from the minors to replace them. FA's are expensive.