The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[monty57]

2) Take the Compensation Pick - I hate that this is my second option, and it will be such an emotional let down that four prospects were used as commodities to land Greinke (and a lot of hope) but will suddenly transform into a single pick in the compensation round.

We also got a 16-6 3.83 pitcher during our best chance at a championship in a generation.

Agreed, and I enjoyed every minute of last season. I wasn't trying to give commentary on whether it was or wasn't a good trade, just that having the Greinke era commence with a single comp pick isn't how I envisioned it would end when they acquired him 20 months ago.

 

I enjoyed "the Greinke era" as well, but as it is seemingly coming to an end I'm faced with the stark reality that two years (maybe 1.5 years) is a very short time frame, while the "Escobar/Cain era" in Kansas City is just getting warmed up, and the "Odorizzi era" hasn't even begun. As you mentioned in your first post, I too will be much happier if we can get five or six years of a good player or two (not saying elite or Hall of Fame) for the final few months of Greinke. That to me would be a better end to "the Greinke era" than watching him pitch meaningless games before losing him to free agency.

 

By the way, I like the way you summed up your feelings on re-signing him: "As a huge fan of watching Greinke pitch I will be very excited if the Brewers re-sign him. From a risk management standpoint I will be terrified." Well put. I think that sums up the feelings of a lot of posters here who are in the "sell" camp.

[brwrsfan]

Sure, it sucks to see our former prospects shine in other places (Lawrie, Escobar, Odorizzi, etc), especially when guys like Greinke and likely Marcum are long gone off the Brewers roster. But that's the risk you take. No way to know for certain those guys will pan out...just ask the Indians.

 

That being said, yeah, we gave up those guys, but it also provided me with the most memorable Brewers moments of my life (I'm 30 and was barely alive in 1982). Seeing CC on the mound against the Cubs, being there for the division title last year and then watching the Morgan hit to win the series are moments that are etched into my memory bank forever. Sure, we fell short of the ultimate goal, but we were that close and to me, that heavily outweighs watching our former farmhands become stars in other places.

 

Sorry, didn't mean to hijack the thread.

[brwrsfan]

from MLB TradeRumors: It’s time to consider the Angels and Rangers superpowers, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. Lucrative regional TV deals, an abundance of star talent and the flexibility to make further moves have turned the Angels and Rangers into imposing organizations. Both clubs have both scouted Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels, but the Rangers view those pitchers as rentals and are hesitant to part with top prospects for either one.

 

The key word there is "hesitant". Not unwilling. Hold firm or try to play the Angels and Rangers against each other and maybe we can pry one away.

[jjfanec]

Sure, it sucks to see our former prospects shine in other places (Lawrie, Escobar, Odorizzi, etc), especially when guys like Greinke and likely Marcum are long gone off the Brewers roster. But that's the risk you take. No way to know for certain those guys will pan out...just ask the Indians.

 

That being said, yeah, we gave up those guys, but it also provided me with the most memorable Brewers moments of my life (I'm 30 and was barely alive in 1982). Seeing CC on the mound against the Cubs, being there for the division title last year and then watching the Morgan hit to win the series are moments that are etched into my memory bank forever. Sure, we fell short of the ultimate goal, but we were that close and to me, that heavily outweighs watching our former farmhands become stars in other places.

 

Sorry, didn't mean to hijack the thread.

 

I agree completely with this post. I remember being at a sports bar giving high fives to everyone when the Brewers beat the Cubs. I remember watching the Brewers take out Arizona and calling my dad right after the game. Those were great memories.

 

At the same time watching guys you trade succeed hurts a little. However, as of right now Escobar is the only one who would make our current team better. Lawrie probably will but he has not been that good this year, but he is cheap and would be more valuable than ARam for that reason. Odorizzi is the one that scares me because impact pitchers are hard to find. He is getting hit a little in AAA (good ERA but others stats not as impressive) but it is a really small sample.

 

However, I dont think Cards fans are missing Rasmus (who has been better with Toronto this year than Lawrie) considering what they won and we were not far from that. You have to make some moves. The bigger issue has been that we didnt draft well enough to have replacements prospects.

[RockCoCougars]

Sure, it sucks to see our former prospects shine in other places (Lawrie, Escobar, Odorizzi, etc), especially when guys like Greinke and likely Marcum are long gone off the Brewers roster. But that's the risk you take. No way to know for certain those guys will pan out...just ask the Indians.

 

That being said, yeah, we gave up those guys, but it also provided me with the most memorable Brewers moments of my life (I'm 30 and was barely alive in 1982). Seeing CC on the mound against the Cubs, being there for the division title last year and then watching the Morgan hit to win the series are moments that are etched into my memory bank forever. Sure, we fell short of the ultimate goal, but we were that close and to me, that heavily outweighs watching our former farmhands become stars in other places.

 

Sorry, didn't mean to hijack the thread.

 

Exactly. I don't remember hearing people whining about giving up Kevin Bass for Don Sutton throughout the 80's, even when Paul Householder was starting in the OF a few years later. Bottom line, even though Sutton was close to washed up at that point, the Brewers most likely don't even make the playoffs without him in '82. You have to give to get. Maybe it's just me, but neither Lawrie or Escobar look like future HOF at this point.

[rluzinski]

Sure, it sucks to see our former prospects shine in other places (Lawrie, Escobar, Odorizzi, etc), especially when guys like Greinke and likely Marcum are long gone off the Brewers roster. But that's the risk you take. No way to know for certain those guys will pan out...just ask the Indians.

 

That being said, yeah, we gave up those guys, but it also provided me with the most memorable Brewers moments of my life (I'm 30 and was barely alive in 1982). Seeing CC on the mound against the Cubs, being there for the division title last year and then watching the Morgan hit to win the series are moments that are etched into my memory bank forever. Sure, we fell short of the ultimate goal, but we were that close and to me, that heavily outweighs watching our former farmhands become stars in other places.

 

Sorry, didn't mean to hijack the thread.

 

Exactly. I don't remember hearing people whining about giving up Kevin Bass for Don Sutton throughout the 80's, even when Paul Householder was starting in the OF a few years later. Bottom line, even though Sutton was close to washed up at that point, the Brewers most likely don't even make the playoffs without him in '82. You have to give to get. Maybe it's just me, but neither Lawrie or Escobar look like future HOF at this point.

Hindsight is 20/20. Trades that result in a post season run are always more forgiving. Losing talent in a trade that doesn't is painful, in contrast.

[RockCoCougars]

Hindsight is 20/20. Trades that result in a post season run are always more forgiving. Losing talent in a trade that doesn't is painful, in contrast.

 

That's exactly the point. Does anyone think that the Brewers make the run they do last year without making those deals?

[monty57]

from MLB TradeRumors: It’s time to consider the Angels and Rangers superpowers, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. Lucrative regional TV deals, an abundance of star talent and the flexibility to make further moves have turned the Angels and Rangers into imposing organizations. Both clubs have both scouted Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels, but the Rangers view those pitchers as rentals and are hesitant to part with top prospects for either one.

 

The key word there is "hesitant". Not unwilling. Hold firm or try to play the Angels and Rangers against each other and maybe we can pry one away.

 

Exactly. It's a negotiation, so buyers are going to try to push the price down and sellers are going to try to push the price up. We just have to hope that Melvin is the better negotiator, so he is able to get the buyers to pay a little more than they'd like.

 

If Dempster goes to the Dodgers, that's fine, because they don't have the prospects we'd want for Greinke, and it takes an arm off the market. If Hamels re-signs with the Phillies, that's great because that makes Greinke the unquestioned "prize" of the trading market, without diminishing demand at all. I'd like Melvin to move before Hamels gets traded to Texas, but even if he doesn't a trade of Hamels to Texas may make the Angels desparate to get Greinke.

 

Just a sample of some things going on... Melvin needs to take advantage of everything out there to get the best deal possible. He has a big "chip" that other teams really want. He just has to let them know how much they need Greinke.

[Oldcity]

Now Rosenthal is speculating that interest on Greinke is cooling because of skipping his start. The Brewers better hope Greinke comes back and looks great, otherwise this would be a disaster.

[adamds22]

A lot of people are saying on here that if we don't resign Greinke or trade him for prospects we are done for the next 2-3 years.

 

If we play out the season and don't trade or resign Greinke do you really think we are just going to go with Gallardo and a bunch of unproven rookies in the rotation. I understand Greinke is an elite pitcher but I highly doubt we lose Greinke and Marcum next year. So lets say we stand pat and do nothing at the deadline. We have a team capable of making a run at the playoffs and in the off season we lose Greinke, KRod we resign Marcum (hopefully he is healthy) and then go after a FA pitcher and look for SS and Bullpen help. I don't see how we are that much worse off next year, we certainly aren't going to be the Cubs or Stros this year.

 

Also those of you who say they don't care about the WC play in game are out of your mind. We have a VERY solid 1/2 punch in the rotation with another very solid likely somewhat fresh Marcum as a 3rd. Plus if there is any chance we make it to that WC play in game, you'd have to think our pen has made a significant turn around. So I don't see how, if we are to make the playoffs as a WC team, that we don't have a legitimate shot at being last years Cardinals. We have the pieces to make a run.

 

All these doom and gloom posts about wanting us to lose are ridiculous.

[davego]

I give you an "amen" Adamds22! Preach it!

[logan82]

Hindsight is 20/20. Trades that result in a post season run are always more forgiving. Losing talent in a trade that doesn't is painful, in contrast.

 

That's exactly the point. Does anyone think that the Brewers make the run they do last year without making those deals?

I was lukewarm on the Greinke and Marcum deals to begin with. Many people were. It wasn't like the CC deal where there was close to a consensus at the time of the deal. We were on the upswing with a very strong farm system and young talent in 2008. I think many people were gearing up for a rebuild in 2010. I know I was waiting for a Fielder deal since the start of that year which probably contributed to being a little happy for the Marcum and Greinke deals instead of being really excited.

[paul253]

All these doom and gloom posts about wanting us to lose are ridiculous.

 

I don't think you understand what we are saying then. Some people believe the Brewers are a playoff caliber team. Others don't. The ones who don't, myself included, are simply saying that the future of the franchise may be better off by trading Greinke. All that stuff you said earlier (improving the bullpen, finding a shortstop, etc) can still be done whether you trade Greinke or not. I just don't want to see Milwaukee hang onto one of the best available arms on the market so they can finish 3 games out of the wild card instead of 7 games out. It would accomplish nothing. The wanting to lose is more of us saying we want Melvin to sell and losing would convince him to do that.

 

we resign Marcum (hopefully he is healthy) and then go after a FA pitcher and look for SS and Bullpen help

 

Easier said than done. First off, resigning Marcum, especially to a multiyear contract, is risky. I'd certainly consider it, but it is risky. Then as far as simply looking for a SS, I mean, where exactly are you going to look? We looked all last offseason and came away with Alex Gonzalez. Who exactly are we going to get? And bullpen help too. We'll probably need at least two solid relievers and they are not going to come cheap.

[igor67]

It is also worth thinking honestly about how much playing time Escobar would have gotten this year if he was still with the Brewers. Keep in mind he hit .235/ .288/ .326 in a full season with the Crew before the trade. He followed that up with a .254/ .290/ .343 last year for the Royals. His defense did improve somewhat, but those are not numbers that give one a lot of hope especially because he had more than a full year of AA and a full year of AAA in development too (so no arguing that he was rushed). He may have started this season had the Brewers held onto him or they might have moved on after 2 full seasons of uninspired production.

 

Total WAR for Marcum, Sabathia, and Greinke: 3.5, 3.9, 4.6, 3.8 = 15.8

 

Indians 0.8

Escobar 3.5

Lawrie 5.1

Cain 0.5

Total WAR for players traded away = 9.9

 

One could attempt a more robust analysis by trying to project those younger players forward, but you'd also need to account for the value of the extra draft picks we picked up as well (assuming no trade that would be a total of 4 extra picks for us, where the average late 1st round pick has about 5 WAR for their career). It is certainly possible for us to 'lose' in this kind of accounting scenario, but so far we are substantially 'ahead' and it will take a fair bit for the other teams to catch up. I think this simplifies things quite a bit and doesn't take into account any kind of context, but I don't think that really favors those who have complained about the gutting of the farm system.

[TURBO]

Latest on Greinke situation:

 

Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reports that the trade market for Zack Greinke may be softening.

 

It appears that the Brewers pushing Greinke's next start back has raised some eyebrows within the industry. One executive told Rosenthal that they were "very" concerned about the recent developments with the pitcher, while another said, "he scares me, period." Rosenthal writes that teams "do not consider Greinke entirely trustworthy, in part due to his past struggles with social anxiety disorder." This is certainly noteworthy but could all be a moot point if Greinke returns next week and dominates for two starts leading up to the trade deadline. And, while some teams may be scared off by him, it only takes one that isn't and is willing to offer a package of prospects for him.

 

Source: FOXSports.com Jul 20 - 10:37 AM

[logan82]

Given what we have had at SS the last couple years Escobar would have been just fine. Oddorizzi and Lawrie were the guys we probably will miss.

 

You cannot use WAR to evaluate a trade when the prospects have not even made it to the majors. It is borderline useless.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'm not really concerned about the market for Greinke. He'll probably come out an pitch well on Tuesday, and then again on Sunday if he's not traded by then. Any worries will be gone pretty quickly. I don't think Melvin will have a tough time trading him if he ends up doing so. Even if no one wants him, you gotta think that would help our chances of keeping him in the offseason. So many teams being turned off by him would limit his market in free agency. But like Rosenthal said, all it takes is one. I'm not really concerned at this point.

[adamds22]

Saying you want them to lose and saying you want them to trade Greinke are two completely different statements. I am torn on the Greinke thing, if you can get some talent for him then yes go ahead and trade him, if you can't get much for him why not ride the season in hopes we slide into that last playoff spot rather than trading him for whatever you can get. People on here and "experts" are all over the place on what we can actually get for him anyway. You can't tell me out of the teams in the WC contention that we would definitely lose a one game playoff with Greinke on the mound.

 

Yes resigning Marcum is easier said than done but regardless of if we trade Greinke or he walks we are going to have to do something. I find it VERY hard to believe that the FO would be ok with a rotation of Gallardo and 4 of the following: Narv, Estrada, Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta, Rodgers etc. So whether that signing is Marcum or a different FA.

 

As much as some of you hate how this team is run, this isn't a team that wants to rebuild. Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing can be debated at length but MA seems to always want to win, he has shown that with some of the trades he has made. They will do what it takes to make this team competitive next year whether it is with Greinke/Marcum or someone else.

[trwi7]

Given what we have had at SS the last couple years Escobar would have been just fine. Oddorizzi and Lawrie were the guys we probably will miss.

 

You cannot use WAR to evaluate a trade when the prospects have not even made it to the majors. It is borderline useless.

 

Agreed. Not only that but with Escobar the Royals got two incredibly cheap years, Odorizzi, Cain and Jeffress with three and three more years of control after that.

 

Lawrie also has three incredibly cheap years and three years of control after that.

 

That's not even counting extensions players may sign (like Escobar) to control them through their primes.

[torts]

per MLBTR.com

 

July 20th: The Brewers offered Greinke a five-year deal worth $100MM-plus sometime in the past few weeks, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. However, there's no indication the right-hander will sign quickly. One person told Heyman the proposed extension was worth close to $112.5MM -- Matt Cain territory.

[torts]

also... if he signs before August 6th, I will buy a Greinke jersey at Miller Park when I visit. he might be my favorite player next to Braun on this team right now. I loved following him in KC, was so stoked he was traded to MIL, and if he stays for 5 years, i'll be so happy

[torts]

per MLB Traderumors.com

 

July 20th: The Brewers offered Greinke a five-year deal worth $100MM-plus sometime in the past few weeks, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. However, there's no indication the right-hander will sign quickly. One person told Heyman the proposed extension was worth close to $112.5MM -- Matt Cain territory.

[brewmann04]

wow if True i really don't understand what going on and what they plan to do with Grienke.

[torts]

they clearly plan to try to sign him

[brwrsfan]

per MLBTR.com

 

July 20th: The Brewers offered Greinke a five-year deal worth $100MM-plus sometime in the past few weeks, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. However, there's no indication the right-hander will sign quickly. One person told Heyman the proposed extension was worth close to $112.5MM -- Matt Cain territory.

 

If that second number is true, the Brewers did everything they could (and then some) to sign him and if he turns that down, thats it. That's way more than just window dressing.