The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[Raw Biz]

As bad as this sounds I almost hope they lose the series in Cincy. I still do not consider them to be a playoff team and I am really, really worried that Melvin and Mark A. will grasp to any glimmer of hope they can find.

No almost about it for me. I told myself before this stretch that unless they went 8-1 or 9-0, I absolutely want them selling. I'm rooting against them to protect the FO from themselves.

 

Ditto. I understand how it would look to the "casual fan" if they traded away Greinke after sweeping or taking 2 of 3 so I hope they lose. If most fans understood how important it is to be constantly cycling talent into the organization, I don't think there would be a problem with selling even if they win a little. Unfortunately, most people are only fixated on the present and I bet the jsonline posters would be going crazy if they traded Greinke after winning 2 of 3, even though this team would likely lose the 1st round/play-in game if they even managed to squeak in.

[narwhalattack]

As bad as this sounds I almost hope they lose the series in Cincy. I still do not consider them to be a playoff team and I am really, really worried that Melvin and Mark A. will grasp to any glimmer of hope they can find.

No almost about it for me. I told myself before this stretch that unless they went 8-1 or 9-0, I absolutely want them selling. I'm rooting against them to protect the FO from themselves.

 

Same here. I'd prefer it if this team is either winning enough to have a chance at the playoffs, or is losing enough to sell; being in the middle doesn't really have benefits. And since they have a slim chance of getting into the playoffs at this point, I'd rather see the team sell, restock the farm system, and get a high draft pick to add a high-upside player into the minors.

[brettac1]

I am starting to get the feeling that whatever they get for Greinke will be very underwhelming.

[TooLiveBrew]

"We might have," Melvin said. "It depends -- at that point, we wanted to get in. We hadn't been to Postseason in 25 years. You think Pittsburgh wants in? Do you think they should worry about next year's Draft picks? You think the Braves want in after losing the way they did late last year? You think the Angels, after the money they spent, want in? Think the Tigers, after the money they spent, want in?

 

"Draft picks -- they can always say that. They just have to make their own decisions."

I like your reading of that quote from Melvin, monty. I sure hope that's the case, anyhow. If he's indeed fielding offers from those teams & playing them against one another, I love it.

[SRB]

Why do you folks think Texas is a better fit than Los Angeles? Texas has the better farm system, obviously, but it's not like they are going to trade Profar (probably not Olt either). The positions the Brewers need the most are SS/SP, and the Angels have two top-100-caliber prospects at those positions that they seem willing to trade and who could contribute as early as 2013 (Segura/Richards).

 

Assuming Melvin & Co. scout Segura and think he can stick at SS, of course.

 

This isn't like football where you can target positions of need. You should almost always be targeting the best player available. Since you said Texas has the best farm system, thats who you probably want to deal with first. And some prospects take longer than others to reach the bigs, other trades can happen, there's FA signings, etc. so you don't really know what the makeup of the team will be. If Melvin traded ARam, we would likely need a 3B (unless you go with Green) so Olt would fit nicely there (I think Texas is nuts if they think they won't have to give up Olt in a deal for Greinke/Hamels).

 

Disagree entirely. You don't target positions of need in the draft, because those players aren't going to be in the majors for like five years, so it makes no sense. You absolutely target positions of need for prospects in AA/AAA who you want to contribute sometime in the following year. In that case it's exactly like football, you know what holes you have for the next 2-3 seasons.

[HiAndTight]

As bad as this sounds I almost hope they lose the series in Cincy. I still do not consider them to be a playoff team and I am really, really worried that Melvin and Mark A. will grasp to any glimmer of hope they can find.

No almost about it for me. I told myself before this stretch that unless they went 8-1 or 9-0, I absolutely want them selling. I'm rooting against them to protect the FO from themselves.

 

Ditto. I understand how it would look to the "casual fan" if they traded away Greinke after sweeping or taking 2 of 3 so I hope they lose. If most fans understood how important it is to be constantly cycling talent into the organization, I don't think there would be a problem with selling even if they win a little. Unfortunately, most people are only fixated on the present and I bet the jsonline posters would be going crazy if they traded Greinke after winning 2 of 3, even though this team would likely lose the 1st round/play-in game if they even managed to squeak in.

 

 

 

Really? So now, not only is it a miracle if they where to get into the playoffs(which suggests to me someone hasn't looked at Augusts schedule) even if they win 2-3 vs the Reds, but you're already announcing they would lose their play in game in the wild card. Amazing.

 

If only I could borrow that crystal ball.

 

 

And please, stop citing the "average fans," ignorance if they don't agree with you. I sure as hell hope they win another 2 of 3 vs the Reds or sweep all three as they're in a position right now where it's not the least bit difficult to see them getting in. The Pirates are pretty clearly playing over their heads, the Reds just lost Votto for at least a month(two series in which we play them), the Cards are close to us, banged up and old, and our August schedule consists of just bad teams or teams we're chasing.

 

So sorry if this "average," fan doesn't want to take what Melvin has described as a tepid market for Greinke when this team, should they get in, has just as good a chance as any other from a watered down NL without a dominant team to get to the WS.

 

And if, while it is still a very big IF, if they get to the post-season, they have a team that might even be better built to win in it. Especially if they were to pick up a Scutaro type player at short.

[HiAndTight]

Why do you folks think Texas is a better fit than Los Angeles? Texas has the better farm system, obviously, but it's not like they are going to trade Profar (probably not Olt either). The positions the Brewers need the most are SS/SP, and the Angels have two top-100-caliber prospects at those positions that they seem willing to trade and who could contribute as early as 2013 (Segura/Richards).

 

Assuming Melvin & Co. scout Segura and think he can stick at SS, of course.

 

This isn't like football where you can target positions of need. You should almost always be targeting the best player available. Since you said Texas has the best farm system, thats who you probably want to deal with first. And some prospects take longer than others to reach the bigs, other trades can happen, there's FA signings, etc. so you don't really know what the makeup of the team will be. If Melvin traded ARam, we would likely need a 3B (unless you go with Green) so Olt would fit nicely there (I think Texas is nuts if they think they won't have to give up Olt in a deal for Greinke/Hamels).

 

 

How is this not like football where you can target a position of need?

 

I think you're getting the draft and trading confused here. When you draft a player out of HS, he won't be on your big league roster for 5-6 years most likely. When you trade for guys in AA and AAA, it's pretty easy to project when they'll be on your roster and what position they'll be playing(again, something that you don't always know in high school).

 

So targeting the Rangers because they have a better farm system, primarily because of two players who are untouchable over the Angels who have two players who one would assume ARE tradable and close to the big leagues makes all the sense in the world.

 

 

In fact, most trades of top prospects, players are certain positions ARE in fact targeted. The Royals targeted a SS, SP and a CF. They wanted those positions. You act as if an accomplished AA player is just some crap shot and that there are years inbetween actually trading for him and him factoring into the clubs long term plans and that just isn't the case. In fact, that reads like a cut and paste from what someone said about the draft.

 

 

The Brewers, IF they trade Greinke, absolutely should be targeting SS's and pitching. One last thing, I think it's crazy to question the methods of the Rangers front office when they've proven over the past few years...they kinda know what they're doing. Though....I guess I will defer to the Biz who clearly has a better handle on it.

[HiAndTight]

As bad as this sounds I almost hope they lose the series in Cincy. I still do not consider them to be a playoff team and I am really, really worried that Melvin and Mark A. will grasp to any glimmer of hope they can find. Even if they win 2 of 3 in Cincy they'll be 7 games out of first place and they'll still be behind 4 or 5 teams in the wild care race. Meanwhile, the system REALLY needs an influx of talent, especially position players at the higher levels. Obtaining a Segura or an Olt or a Machado would be huge. How about Ramirez for Lee and Gould and Greinke for Olt and Loux. I would be very satisfied with those two deals.

 

 

 

Look, this is most likely going to be the last time in the next 4-5 years if we don't re-sign Greinke that we're going to be competitive. We're constantly improving our farm system and have been doing so since the ridiculous Lawrie trade and the Greinke trade.

 

I don't know why people would actively root against their team from going on a run and getting back into it only hope to get returns that simply do not seem and are not realistic from every report. You want Olt PLUS Loux for Greinke when they said just Olt is off the table?

 

It's amazing this thread started with me suggesting we trade Greinke and possibly give up another piece to get Greinke and people were telling me how much I'm undervaluing Greinke. Now at least we over the Profar isn't really that good or he's "just a prospect," talk which seems to come up whenever a prospect is hyped, but not when the consensus is to trade away the last realistic shot we have of being a contender for probably 4-5 years. And obviously trading away Greinke means zero chance of re-signing him(or close to it) while holding on to him certainly keeps us in the game.

 

 

Again, I just ask people to take a little closer look to the TALENT on this team, not the early performance, the shape of the teams ahead of us, and the two big pieces we'll be getting back which could give us a rotation of Greinke/Yo/Fiers/Marcum/Wolf, Lucroy coming back and Maldy backing him up very well, Weeks finally breaking out of his slump, Hart playing well, Braun having a better year than last year, Aram heating up...

 

In a weak league and a team still in striking distance in what very well may be their last real shot, I'm not going to root for them to lose. Just look at Augusts schedule and our recent August success.

 

And again, those belaboring the # of teams ahead of us...it's almost comical with nearly 3 months to go.

 

Heck, I may even feel differently if the trade suggestions were somewhat realistic, but they're not either.

[endaround]

People would kill Melvin for giving up Olt for 6 months of a pitcher but think Texas should give up Olt plus for a pitcher they really don't need to get to the playoffs in the first place.

[Funketown]

I am starting to get the feeling that whatever they get for Greinke will be very underwhelming.

 

For me it comes down to this: If the quality of players the Brewers receive in a trade for Greinke is only slightly better than the picks, I'd rather just enjoy watching Greinke pitch the year out.

[chuckiehacks]

I am starting to get the feeling that whatever they get for Greinke will be very underwhelming.

 

For me it comes down to this: If the quality of players the Brewers receive in a trade for Greinke is only slightly better than the picks, I'd rather just enjoy watching Greinke pitch the year out.

 

Unfortunately, that's a low standard under the new CBA. The Brewers would only get one supplemental pick, which is why I'm not too excited about the return in a potential trade (especially since whomever trades for Greinke will get no picks). Hopefully DM can convince multiple teams that Greinke sitting out he most important games is not a big deal, that he's also not hurt, and then get those teams bidding against each other.

 

Oof. That sounds like a tall order.

[Oldcity]

I haven't seen many say they should give up Olt. Just people hoping they would.

 

HiAndTight, now it's "not the least bit difficult" to see them getting in? I can't say I agree with that at all. It's possible, but it's definitely "difficult" for me to see it. My contention is that missing the playoffs and getting compensated with only one sandwich pick for Greinke would be crushing for the team's future prospects.

 

Upside to holding on to Greinke: 10-12% shot at the playoffs

 

Downside to holding on to Greinke: Only ONE sandwich pick for something that could have greatly bolstered the farm system.

 

 

And before someone points out that a possible upside to holding on to Greinke is re-signing him, I don't consider that an upside. Either they won't re-sign him, or it will be for so much that it will be a contract that is detrimental to the team.

 

They have to trade him.

[endaround]

The pick and the added money that brings to go over on their early 1st round pick. Since compensation picks are not protected, that pick has to be a signability one anyway.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I haven't seen many say they should give up Olt. Just people hoping they would.

 

HiAndTight, now it's "not the least bit difficult" to see them getting in? I can't say I agree with that at all. It's possible, but it's definitely "difficult" for me to see it. My contention is that missing the playoffs and getting compensated with only one sandwich pick for Greinke would be crushing for the team's future prospects.

 

Upside to holding on to Greinke: 10-12% shot at the playoffs

 

Downside to holding on to Greinke: Only ONE sandwich pick for something that could have greatly bolstered the farm system.

 

 

And before someone points out that a possible upside to holding on to Greinke is re-signing him, I don't consider that an upside. Either they won't re-sign him, or it will be for so much that it will be a contract that is detrimental to the team.

 

They have to trade him.

 

I'm with you on this. I think he needs to be traded whether Melvin thinks we're still in the race or not. He doesn't need to sell off all of his tradable pieces, but he needs to make sure he gets something more than a comp pick. Maybe if he wants to keep a chance at contention he'll try to land a young, major league pitcher as part of the deal. I wouldn't mind that as long as other prospects were also coming along. It's possible that he does plan to trade Greinke, but the Brewers place in the standings will determine more what type of package he's looking for. He said he'd wait to determine whether or not to sell, but not sure that just trading Greinke would be considered selling.

[monty57]

As Oldcity alluded, it's about odds. We have a small chance to make the playoffs this season, and trading some guys would crush that chance. However, losing the talent we're losing after this season, while still being on the hook for a lot of big contracts would make the chances of getting to the playoffs in future years pretty small. Trading some of our players could increase the odds of the Brewers making future playoffs.

 

Trading Greinke will bring back some players who will help us in the future. Trading Ramirez and/or Hart would bring back players who could help us plus it would free up a lot of cash. Trading guys like Morgan may not bring a lot, but we'd get something for a player we may just dump after the season. I'm not saying everyone should be traded, but selling with a plan could give us the talent and financial flexibility to compete beyond this season.

[Raw Biz]

Why do you folks think Texas is a better fit than Los Angeles? Texas has the better farm system, obviously, but it's not like they are going to trade Profar (probably not Olt either). The positions the Brewers need the most are SS/SP, and the Angels have two top-100-caliber prospects at those positions that they seem willing to trade and who could contribute as early as 2013 (Segura/Richards).

 

Assuming Melvin & Co. scout Segura and think he can stick at SS, of course.

 

This isn't like football where you can target positions of need. You should almost always be targeting the best player available. Since you said Texas has the best farm system, thats who you probably want to deal with first. And some prospects take longer than others to reach the bigs, other trades can happen, there's FA signings, etc. so you don't really know what the makeup of the team will be. If Melvin traded ARam, we would likely need a 3B (unless you go with Green) so Olt would fit nicely there (I think Texas is nuts if they think they won't have to give up Olt in a deal for Greinke/Hamels).

 

Disagree entirely. You don't target positions of need in the draft, because those players aren't going to be in the majors for like five years, so it makes no sense. You absolutely target positions of need for prospects in AA/AAA who you want to contribute sometime in the following year. In that case it's exactly like football, you know what holes you have for the next 2-3 seasons.

 

I was speaking more in terms of don't just limit yourself to certain positions just because you have a need there. In other words, if someone were to offer an A-/B+ prospect at 2B or 3B for example who's at High A, you don't turn that down for a B/B- SS prospect in AAA, just because he's closer to the majors and at a position of need. All else being equal, sure you want a guy closest to the majors at a position of need. I would love to get an impact SS. I would totally take Segura/Richard like in your original offer. I actually said that was my 2nd or 3rd overall favorite package a few pages past. I am basically just saying to not pigeon-hole yourself into set positions immediately and be open to the best talent available, which at this point would seemingly come from Texas because of the strength of their system.

[Raw Biz]

HiAndTight, I'm really getting sick of your condescending posts. That's fine if you disagree with me but it seems like you just have to mention my name in every post. You called me out in 2 separate threads on things that I didn't even say. One in which you basically twisted my words into something false and another where you attributed an entire conversation to me that was actually with another poster. I called you out on it and you didn't even have the decency to apologize. And now you're asking me to borrow my crystal ball, really? Obviously almost everything posted here is just people's opinions. Yes, I think the Brewers would likely lose their first matchup but that's just my opinion. There's no need to get condescending because I think differently than you.

 

You say that it doesn't matter what the team has done so far, only what they are capable of doing. I agree, on paper, that this could be a good team. The offense is fine and the starting pitching has been good (I'm a huge Fiers fan). Yes we'll be getting Lucroy back and possibly Marcum. But the bullpen has been horrible and I don't see them snapping out of it. I think that is a major weakness, especially in the playoffs. There's even a thread about how the BP has basically been the downfall this year so I'm not alone in that thought.

 

As for the whole wanting to lose to sell Greinke thing, yes I am hoping for losses. As others have said, it's about weighing the options. Personally, I would much rather try to trade for impact talent now (and yes I believe eventually someone will give it up to get Greinke) than rest my hopes on the slim chance that the Brewers make the playoffs. As I've said, to me it's not about just getting in but getting far. I honestly would like to know what you think their chances of making the playoffs are. Statistically, they probably have like a 5% shot now. I don't know how even the most optimistic fan could put their chances at more than 25%, seeing as how they are 7.5 back of the division. I don't put a lot of faith in the WC because it's basically just a one-game playoff to see who gets in. I think Monty, Stevo (Oldcity), and PEM all understand where I'm coming from here. You weigh the risk/reward of the slim chance of making the playoffs vs whatever return Greinke would bring back.

[GAME05]

from MLB TradeRumors: It’s time to consider the Angels and Rangers superpowers, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. Lucrative regional TV deals, an abundance of star talent and the flexibility to make further moves have turned the Angels and Rangers into imposing organizations. Both clubs have both scouted Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels, but the Rangers view those pitchers as rentals and are hesitant to part with top prospects for either one.

 

Link to the Rosenthal article: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/texas-rangers-los-angeles-angels-new-superpowers-no-longer-new-york-yankees-boston-red-sox-071512

 

of course talk is just that. and being this first year with new trade rules, i'd imagine GMs just can't quite estimate value the same. it might just take one team to suck it up and trade a good prospect for a rental and then maybe every other team will do the same.

 

i'm not a big fan of the new playoff system, but i don't know if i'd feel satisfied at the end of the year if we passed on a couple decent prospects and then lost in that one-game play-in. as valuable as prospects are and as bad as the Brewers' system is, it just doesn't seem worth it to risk this much one one single game.

[RockCoCougars]

As bad as this sounds I almost hope they lose the series in Cincy. I still do not consider them to be a playoff team and I am really, really worried that Melvin and Mark A. will grasp to any glimmer of hope they can find.

No almost about it for me. I told myself before this stretch that unless they went 8-1 or 9-0, I absolutely want them selling. I'm rooting against them to protect the FO from themselves.

 

Ditto. I understand how it would look to the "casual fan" if they traded away Greinke after sweeping or taking 2 of 3 so I hope they lose. If most fans understood how important it is to be constantly cycling talent into the organization, I don't think there would be a problem with selling even if they win a little. Unfortunately, most people are only fixated on the present and I bet the jsonline posters would be going crazy if they traded Greinke after winning 2 of 3, even though this team would likely lose the 1st round/play-in game if they even managed to squeak in.

 

I think that you guys set the bar too high. During the vast majority of my Brewer fandom, the odds have been long against them before the season started. In a lot of seasons, I'd have been pumped if they were coming off a 4-2 homestand even if they were 7.5 back in July. Bottom line, I see no reason to cheer for them to lose so trades can be made. Most of the names bandied about have pretty minimal trade value, and teams are going to hold back their best stuff even for Greinke. Let's not delude ourselves into thinking that the Brewers are going to pick up a ton of impact prospects at the trade deadline if the 'sell'. Why make Dean Taylor type trades just to pick up 'guys'? I'll take my chances on going on a run and stand pat.

[Eye Black]

One other really important angle to consider is that, if they do decide to deal Profar, they could target someone with a heck of a lot more salary control remaining than Greinke. If I had to guess, I'd guess Profar could get the Rangers any number of young, salary-controlled SPs. And over the course of half a season, I'm just not sure I'd bet that Greinke's performance would necessarily blow anyone else's out of the water. If I'm Jon Daniels, and I decide I want to deal Profar, you can bet the last thing I'm interested in is half of a season of a FA-to-be w/zero comp. picks.

Not trying to advance this as a Transaction/Trade Rumor topic, but TLB makes a great point. If the Rangers decided to trade Profar, they would be looking for much more than Zack Greinke. And by more I don't mean Greinke + K-Rod or Axford or Hart or any other combination. Quite honestly, if they were willing to shop Profar I would not be surprised if they were able to get King Felix, who is not only an Ace but also under team control through 2014.

 

I agree with those who are starting to fear that the options are becoming less attractive by the day. Here is my list by order of preference...

 

1) Trade Greinke - I am still holding out hope that a bidding war before the deadline will get the Brewers a solid return and they can move forward.

 

2) Take the Compensation Pick - I hate that this is my second option, and it will be such an emotional let down that four prospects were used as commodities to land Greinke (and a lot of hope) but will suddenly transform into a single pick in the compensation round.

 

3) Sign Greinke - As a huge fan of watching Greinke pitch I will be very excited if the Brewers re-sign him. From a risk management standpoint I will be terrified. I don't think the money can be glossed over as easily as some people suggest. If they give Greinke $120-$130 million, the Brewers can't afford to be wrong.

 

I may view things differently if the Brewers appeared to only be a piece away from a World Series run next year, but I don't believe they are going to be significantly better next year. For a team several pieces away from a legitimate World Series run, the opportunity cost of signing Grienke just seems way too high.

[Funketown]

I thought the Brewers would still get two picks for Greinke, and then it would change next year. Do they only get the one supplemental pick?

[paul253]

The Pirates are pretty clearly playing over their heads, the Reds just lost Votto for at least a month(two series in which we play them), the Cards are close to us, banged up and old, and our August schedule consists of just bad teams or teams we're chasing.

And the Brewers have been decimated by injuries and have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. If you are going to knock everyone else for their flaws you need to knock Milwaukee too.

 

Look, this is most likely going to be the last time in the next 4-5 years if we don't re-sign Greinke that we're going to be competitive. We're constantly improving our farm system and have been doing so since the ridiculous Lawrie trade and the Greinke trade.

 

Unless they trade Greinke. It's entirely possible that they could be competitive by 2014 again with Thornburg Peralta and all the other pitchers coming up. The ENTIRE reason people want to trade Greinke is precisely so that they aren't a crappy team for the next five years. That's what teams like Milwaukee need to do. Recycle talent. You seem to be ok with the Florida Marlins approach of winning big one year then being one of the worst teams in baseball the next 5. You don't build up a fan base that way. I am getting really annoyed by how you act as though anyone who doesn't think that Milwaukee is a playoff team and wants to instead sell off and get what we can for Greinke, KRod, Ramirez, Hart or whoever are bad fans or whatever. We just happen to think the odds of making the playoffs are low enough that we shouldn't waste a golden opportunity to improve the future of the franchise.

 

People would kill Melvin for giving up Olt for 6 months of a pitcher but think Texas should give up Olt plus for a pitcher they really don't need to get to the playoffs in the first place.

 

Texas is in a much, much different situation than we are. They have lost the last two World Series and are looking to get over the hump. They have probably the best farm system in all of baseball and can afford to trade away one or two of those players for an established ace. You say people would kill Melvin if he did something like this but isn't this almost exactly what he did in 2008 to get 3 months of Sabathia? The system was in much better shape then and we were trying to get over the hump (in that case the playoff hump). Olt is just a name being thrown out but quite honestly Texas has like 5 or 6 guys I'd like to see in Milwaukee's system.

Let's not delude ourselves into thinking that the Brewers are going to pick up a ton of impact prospects at the trade deadline if the 'sell'. Why make Dean Taylor type trades just to pick up 'guys'? I'll take my chances on going on a run and stand pat.

This is the mistake that most people seem to be making about those who want to sell. Nobody has EVER said make a trade just for the sake of making a trade. Obviously if the return isn't good enough you don't pull the trigger. But with so many teams possibly looking for pitching (NYY, LAD, LAA, Texas, Pitt, Bal, Atl, ChiWhi, Bos, etc) these teams are going to be bidding against each other. I'm not sure why you think it is so far fetched that we'll get one impact prospect in return for Zack Greinke.

[RightFieldCoder]

2) Take the Compensation Pick - I hate that this is my second option, and it will be such an emotional let down that four prospects were used as commodities to land Greinke (and a lot of hope) but will suddenly transform into a single pick in the compensation round.

We also got a 16-6 3.83 pitcher during our best chance at a championship in a generation.

[Eye Black]

2) Take the Compensation Pick - I hate that this is my second option, and it will be such an emotional let down that four prospects were used as commodities to land Greinke (and a lot of hope) but will suddenly transform into a single pick in the compensation round.

We also got a 16-6 3.83 pitcher during our best chance at a championship in a generation.

Agreed, and I enjoyed every minute of last season. I wasn't trying to give commentary on whether it was or wasn't a good trade, just that having the Greinke era commence with a single comp pick isn't how I envisioned it would end when they acquired him 20 months ago.

[monty57]

I was going to respond, but Paul said everything I wanted to say, so I'll just ditto his post.