The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[monty57]

Why do you folks think Texas is a better fit than Los Angeles? Texas has the better farm system, obviously, but it's not like they are going to trade Profar (probably not Olt either). The positions the Brewers need the most are SS/SP, and the Angels have two top-100-caliber prospects at those positions that they seem willing to trade and who could contribute as early as 2013 (Segura/Richards).

 

Assuming Melvin & Co. scout Segura and think he can stick at SS, of course.

 

This isn't like football where you can target positions of need. You should almost always be targeting the best player available. Since you said Texas has the best farm system, thats who you probably want to deal with first. And some prospects take longer than others to reach the bigs, other trades can happen, there's FA signings, etc. so you don't really know what the makeup of the team will be. If Melvin traded ARam, we would likely need a 3B (unless you go with Green) so Olt would fit nicely there (I think Texas is nuts if they think they won't have to give up Olt in a deal for Greinke/Hamels).

 

I'd rather see the Brewers move sooner rather than later, so that Texas doesn't make a deal with Philly before we decide if we're "buyers" or "sellers." I like the thought of dealing for Olt because it makes Ramirez expendable, and I think the Dodgers would really like to trade for Ramirez. If we don't get a top 3B prospect, Ramirez isn't going anywhere, because I think we've already shown that Melvin/Roenicke aren't sold on Green as a long-term starter.

 

Moving Greinke in a deal centered on Olt, and Ramirez to the Dodgers in a deal centered on pitching would completely change the Brewers' future direction.

[Dnye23]

Whatever our maximum is, I say give it to him at the end of this year. I want our '2 aces' in Greinke and Gallardo locked up for at least the next 3 years. I'm 100% ok with letting Marcum walk, along with Wolf. That leaves Estrada, Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta, Narveson, possibly bring in a low-level FA to grab the 3-4-5 spots for 2013. I'm very happy with that as long as our bullpen is doesn't blow again. K-Rod will be gone, giving Axford the closer role again. Loe and Veras should be gone, keep Hernandez and Parra in long relief.

As far as SS goes, I believe we have another year of Alex Gonzalez. So trading to get a future SS right now is not necessary, unless we're able to get a talent like Profar but I don't see that happening.

[3and2Fastball]

I'd rather see the Brewers move sooner rather than later, so that Texas doesn't make a deal with Philly before we decide if we're "buyers" or "sellers." I like the thought of dealing for Olt because it makes Ramirez expendable, and I think the Dodgers would really like to trade for Ramirez. If we don't get a top 3B prospect, Ramirez isn't going anywhere, because I think we've already shown that Melvin/Roenicke aren't sold on Green as a long-term starter.

 

Moving Greinke in a deal centered on Olt, and Ramirez to the Dodgers in a deal centered on pitching would completely change the Brewers' future direction.

 

I would be absolutely thrilled if Melvin pulled that off. Giddy even.... on cloud nine

[zzzmanwitz]

I don't understand why Profar isn't available. They have Andrus playing SS until 2014, do they plan on moving one of them to 2B?

[fondybrewfan]

#1 Prospects in all of baseball are never available. Hell Top #10 Prospects are almost never available. You worry about Andrus later; those position battles tend to work themselves out. I certainly would never recommend trading a #1 prospect simply because he is blocked at the big league club.

 

We never would have considered trading Fielder, Weeks, or Braun when they were our top prospects no matter who we would be getting; I think it is a similar situation with Profar. (Although Texas is in a much better situation than MIL was when we had those top prospects)

[zzzmanwitz]

Right, its a different situation. My point is they have a team right now that is ready to win a World Series. If it takes your top prospect that is currently blocked by an above average player, you should look at using one of those two to upgrade your team now. I would have had no problem with the Brewers using Peralta or Thornburg last year to pick up that last major piece to put them over the top. Its one thing to trade a top prospect to get into the playoffs, it another to trade him to win a WS.

[Oxy]

Right, its a different situation. My point is they have a team right now that is ready to win a World Series. If it takes your top prospect that is currently blocked by an above average player, you should look at using one of those two to upgrade your team now. I would have had no problem with the Brewers using Peralta or Thornburg last year to pick up that last major piece to put them over the top. Its one thing to trade a top prospect to get into the playoffs, it another to trade him to win a WS.

 

There is a big difference between "your" top prospect, and the top prospect in the entire League. Peralta and Thornburg are nice prospects, but that's it. There are hundreds of guys in the minors just like them. There aren't a hundred guys like Profar.

[zzzmanwitz]

I am in the "I do whatever it takes to win a World Series when I have the team to do it" camp I guess.

[HiAndTight]

Rangers said Profar off the market.

 

 

Did they actually say that? I suspected they would in the Greinke thread, but everyone told me I was underestimating Greinke and that Profar was just a prospect and pondered why they'd keep Profar with Andrus. If fact it was a pretty prolonged argument, but I thought...well...still think that Profar is such a unique prospect that he's going to be unlike any other SS in baseball. He's got a skill set that no other player in the game actually has.

 

In fact, I caught a lot of flak when I said I'd go Greinke and Axford for Profar with many thinking we should be getting Profar+ just for Greinke.

 

I guess I just thought Gallardo with his 3 additional years might do the trick.

 

At this point then I'd be looking for that next tier of SS. I suspect the Reds may end up doing the same thing with Billy Hamilton. Trade away a young and somewhat proven SS in the near future just entering arby years because of him being in the system.

[HiAndTight]

I don't understand why Profar isn't available. They have Andrus playing SS until 2014, do they plan on moving one of them to 2B?

 

 

 

Because Profar is better. Projects to be better at every single thing that Andrus does. And Ian Kinsler is at 2nd base. One of the best 2nd basemen in the game. But...possibly. Andrus hitting leadoff, Profar hitting 2nd, plus the defense up the middle would be just incredible. That IF would be one of the best defensive IF's I've ever seen. Beltre, Profar, Andrus?

 

If you graded the guy out, where does Andrus beat him?

 

Defensively it MAY be close, but Profar if he were in the big leagues right now would be among the best.

Speed, Andrus MIGHT have him there, but again, Profar is probably a 60 speed.

Power-Profar has an OPS near .880 in AA at 19.

Hit Tool-He's a .300 caliber hitter.

Arm-He has a cannon for an arm.

 

As I argued earlier, I don't believe there is another player in baseball at the SS position who could or can match what Profar is capable of doing.

 

I really don't know what the Rangers are planning on doing. They have one of the best SS's in the game, and their AA guy is projected to be better.

They have one of the best 3rd basemen in the game offensively and defensively, same as at SS. And they have one of the elite prospects behind him. They have an all-star 2nd basemen, they are lacking at 1st base, but with that lineup, they can afford to(and it's not REALLY lacking, just not elite).

 

 

The Rangers are setting themselves up to be the next dynasty, and they'll likely be able to leverage Andrus into a big time package, and plug in a superior player at Shortstop anyway. And they've got the money to spend like the Rangers, Sox, Yankees(especially now with the Yankees actually making moves because of their payroll and not wanting to go over the luxury tax...as astonishing as that is.

[TooLiveBrew]

As bad as this sounds I almost hope they lose the series in Cincy. I still do not consider them to be a playoff team and I am really, really worried that Melvin and Mark A. will grasp to any glimmer of hope they can find. Even if they win 2 of 3 in Cincy they'll be 7 games out of first place and they'll still be behind 4 or 5 teams in the wild care race. Meanwhile, the system REALLY needs an influx of talent, especially position players at the higher levels. Obtaining a Segura or an Olt or a Machado would be huge. How about Ramirez for Lee and Gould and Greinke for Olt and Loux. I would be very satisfied with those two deals.

IF THEY WIN THE CINCY SERIES, TIME TO BUY -- THORNBURG+PERALTA FOR HAMELS! [/OPTIMISM CAPS LOCK]

[zzzmanwitz]

I realize that Profar projects to be better than Andrus, but if he was better now, he would be playing in the bigs. Maybe this is partially because of my mindset of a team that doesn't compete year in and year out, but you go for it when you have a chance to go for it. You never know who will get hurt next year or if anyone will regress. They have one of the best teams in the league and if you can trade a guy that currently isn't helping you to get a stud pitcher, I would do it 7 days a week and twice on Sundays.

[TooLiveBrew]

I realize that Profar projects to be better than Andrus, but if he was better now, he would be playing in the bigs. Maybe this is partially because of my mindset of a team that doesn't compete year in and year out, but you go for it when you have a chance to go for it. You never know who will get hurt next year or if anyone will regress. They have one of the best teams in the league and if you can trade a guy that currently isn't helping you to get a stud pitcher, I would do it 7 days a week and twice on Sundays.

It's interesting to me that you're discussing TEX while addressing the win-now mindset. The main reason Texas has created a long window of contention for themselves is that their organizational strategy is typically to not making the win-now/mortgage the future type of move... however, this is also the team that traded for Cliff Lee in 2010, so clearly even a team with a build-first mentality can recognize the value in adding a blue-chip trade piece.

 

I don't know what to expect from all the Greinke trade rumors, but I do know that almost anything that's 'leaked' (or legitimately leaked) is hard to take without a grain of salt. If push comes to shove, I think Olt will be available. I do think that Daniels & Co. will stand their ground on Profar. That dude is on a different level than even a good prospect like Olt.

[zzzmanwitz]

Again, its not just win (make it to the playoffs)-now. Its win (win a World Series)-now. Its not like they don't already have two very good middle infielders that Profar could come up and just blow out of the water. That's why I'm surprised they would take him off the market as "reported".

[TooLiveBrew]

I get what you mean, but I think it's very relevant to remember that the Rangers haven't given much indication that they want to operate in that manner.

 

One other really important angle to consider is that, if they do decide to deal Profar, they could target someone with a heck of a lot more salary control remaining than Greinke. If I had to guess, I'd guess Profar could get the Rangers any number of young, salary-controlled SPs. And over the course of half a season, I'm just not sure I'd bet that Greinke's performance would necessarily blow anyone else's out of the water. If I'm Jon Daniels, and I decide I want to deal Profar, you can bet the last thing I'm interested in is half of a season of a FA-to-be w/zero comp. picks.

[trwi7]

Again, its not just win (make it to the playoffs)-now. Its win (win a World Series)-now. Its not like they don't already have two very good middle infielders that Profar could come up and just blow out of the water. That's why I'm surprised they would take him off the market as "reported".

 

They've already made it to the World Series two years in a row without Greinke. Why would any team trade at the very worst the second best prospect in baseball for possibly half a year of one pitcher that they wouldn't get compensation for when they're already one of the best teams in the league?

[zzzmanwitz]

I agree with you on that TLB. I wouldn't necessarily trade Profar for Greinke either, I'm just surprised, given the Rangers position as a WS contender and their depth at MI, that he would be completely off the table.

[HiAndTight]

Right, its a different situation. My point is they have a team right now that is ready to win a World Series. If it takes your top prospect that is currently blocked by an above average player, you should look at using one of those two to upgrade your team now. I would have had no problem with the Brewers using Peralta or Thornburg last year to pick up that last major piece to put them over the top. Its one thing to trade a top prospect to get into the playoffs, it another to trade him to win a WS.

 

 

And what piece would you have used?

 

What area was it that we were weak in? I would have traded Peralta last year as his value was probably pretty high IF it netted you a Jose Reyes type and you got a 3 day window to negotiate an extension and you got him for 6/90 or something like that.

 

We made a trade for a shutdown SU man, our closer was the best in the game last year, we had a very good lineup. We upgraded 3rd base without giving up much. We had a great 1-3 going into the playoffs and came within 2 games of going to the world series and we easily could have been up a game going home to Milwaukee had Mark Kotsay not played CF, one of the worst moves I've ever seen.

 

This team is just as talented as last years team. You want to trade away our top prospects now to try and win a WS?

 

 

And your distinction between "getting in," and "winning," is one that doesn't really exist. No team had any business winning the NL last year other than the Phillies. And yet they were ousted in the 1st round by a team 9 games out to start Sept. They had the best rotation since I followed baseball with a HOF'er in his prime, a second potential HOF'er as their #4, one of the top 3-4 best lefties as their #3 and another lefties...who's also one of the best in the game as their #2.

 

Plus a very good offense.

 

So "getting in," and "winning it," is a very small distinction. A team almost double digits back last year on Sept 1st beat a vastly superior team.

 

As far as this team goes, unless the Brewers are willing to have a firesale with Greinke, Hart, Rammy, K-Rod and going Marlins style, I'm just fine holding onto Greinke and playing it out. I'd rather see if this team can get hot as one team every year seemingly does....though some think it would take a "miracle," for a team to come back from 7 games out in mid July to make the playoffs. This is a team that might be better suited for a playoff series if we can get Axford righted and if Fiers who has pitched exceptionally well continues to do so. But I wouldn't trade a top 10 pitcher in our system for an additional piece.

 

 

Teams that win it, and moreso than teams who aren't exactly the favorites, ie, the Brewers, need that X-factor to win it. Well, Fiers has certainly been one. Perhaps Thornburg will be another. He certainly has the look of a guy who could be a big help down the stretch. And the way this team is playing now, all they really need is for their BP to lock it down. K-Rod is throwing harder and looking pretty good. Yesterday he gave up a soft hit double and got out of it. Axford looked much better. Rogers is throwing in the mid 90's and IMO should always have been a reliever since his initial bouts of injuries. Or Mitch Stetter continues to throw well and becomes the loogy he once was.

[HiAndTight]

Again, its not just win (make it to the playoffs)-now. Its win (win a World Series)-now. Its not like they don't already have two very good middle infielders that Profar could come up and just blow out of the water. That's why I'm surprised they would take him off the market as "reported".

 

They've already made it to the World Series two years in a row without Greinke. Why would any team trade at the very worst the second best prospect in baseball for possibly half a year of one pitcher that they wouldn't get compensation for when they're already one of the best teams in the league?

 

 

Why would they? Because they lack a legit #1. Darvish could be, but you don't know how a Japanese pitcher will hold up down the stretch, and they have #2 and #3 types behind him.

 

Which was my thinking when I suggested that we give them Greinke PLUS another piece or two. At the time it was Axford who's struggled since obviously. But hell, I'd go Hart and Greinke. I think Hart would be a substantial upgrade at 1st base over who they're playing there now.

 

 

But I wouldn't even consider trading Profar either. I've asked this question several times and the best I've gotten is Castro, but name one single SS in the big leagues who projects to be as good as Profar does. Defensively, offensively...he's a legit 5 tool player.

 

To say he's what Mike Trout was last year except at Shortstop isn't an exaggeration in my opinion in the least. Would YOU trade that for 2 months of Cole Hamels to look at this from a different angle? Especially if you were the prohibitive favorites to win it all right now?

 

The focus, IF we decide to trade him should be on a Jacob Turner, Nick Castenellos type trade from the Tiger

 

 

Of course if Axford was the Axford of last year, we wouldn't be having this conversation as we'd be 6-0 thus far out of the break and 5 games out, and well in the race. Not that we can't or aren't as it stands if we can take another 2 of 3 vs the Reds sans Votto.

 

 

Right now, the Pirates are a up and coming team, but they remind me of the Brewers teams who got out to big leads, but weren't quite ready. The Cards have Carpenter out for the year, Miller isn't exactly lighting it up in AAA as a whole or he'd be up by now, Garcia is out, Berkman has been injured and you're banking on an awful lot that Beltran will make it the rest of the way. And the Reds just lost by far they're best player for at least a month.

 

So the Brewers get the Reds for 3, the Phillies for 3, a struggling Phillies team, the Nats for 4 and we miss Strausburg, and then finish the month with Houston before an incredibly easy August schedule outside of two MORE matchup's with the Reds who will still be without Votto and the Cards.

 

Looking at the schedule, if ever there was a team that had a run set up perfectly for them through the end of August. That should tell you if we'll be trading Greinke, and if we keep playing like we have been, but with a better 8/9 inning combo...I don't see why we wouldn't be in the thick of things in the next 4-5 weeks and possibly looking to add a SS.

 

Oh, and we're looking at getting Marcum and Lucroy back. A #3 pitcher, and a catcher hitting .345.

[monty57]

The frustrating thing is that while Texas and Philly are posturing and the Dodgers and Angels are screaming "someone trade with us!!!" the Brewers seem to be spinning around in circles and falling over.

 

"seem to be"

 

None of us have any idea what has been going on in the front office.

 

That's why I always try to qualify my responses with things like "seem to be," "likely" and "probably." CYA - cover your assets :-)

 

I hope the Brewer brass sat down a month or more ago and said "what are we going to do here," and Melvin started testing the water. Honestly, I hope they sat down before the season and said "we're losing a lot of talent after this season, so what's the plan if we aren't winning." I hope that as we sit here less than two weeks from the trade deadline that they are 90%+ certain as to what they're going to do. It's always good to have hope.

 

Finally some posturing from Melvin (from McCalvy article):

 

But under the new rules, midseason additions no longer qualify their new teams for compensation. Prevailing wisdom has the change diminishing the value of a player like Greinke.

 

Melvin doesn't buy it.

 

"In 2008, when we made the Sabathia trade, the focus wasn't necessarily on Draft picks, the focus was on getting into the playoffs," Melvin said.

 

Yes, Melvin said, the Draft picks were part of the Brewers' calculation when they parted with then-top prospect Matt LaPorta and two other players including current Indians center fielder Michael Brantley. But not the key to the equation.

 

Would Melvin part with those players today, knowing that under current rules he would not get top Draft picks on the back end?

 

"We might have," Melvin said. "It depends -- at that point, we wanted to get in. We hadn't been to Postseason in 25 years. You think Pittsburgh wants in? Do you think they should worry about next year's Draft picks? You think the Braves want in after losing the way they did late last year? You think the Angels, after the money they spent, want in? Think the Tigers, after the money they spent, want in?

 

"Draft picks -- they can always say that. They just have to make their own decisions."

 

So it looks like Pittsburgh, Atlanta, the Angels, and Detroit are on Doug's radar for trading Greinke and he's trying to up the ante on them.

[chad25]

trade Greinke and K-Rod to the Rangers for Mike Adams and Alexi Ogando or Koji Uehara, plus minor leaguers Martin Perez (SP), Roman Mendez (SP/RP), Luis Sardinas (SS) and Will Lamb (SP/RP)....... Im in rebuild mode and I want to get return for our top guys. we'd go into next year with a pretty solid bullpen (resign mike adams, koji uehara in control till 2015, alexi ogando in control till 2017) and we'd have some talented young pitchers to get the chance to start.

[brewmann04]

If they do make moves and sell we need to get some top prospects.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

i thought the Rangers said Olt and Profar are off the table for any rental.

I saw that on twitter as well.

link?

[Oldcity]

As bad as this sounds I almost hope they lose the series in Cincy. I still do not consider them to be a playoff team and I am really, really worried that Melvin and Mark A. will grasp to any glimmer of hope they can find.

No almost about it for me. I told myself before this stretch that unless they went 8-1 or 9-0, I absolutely want them selling. I'm rooting against them to protect the FO from themselves.

[danzig6767]

Again, its not just win (make it to the playoffs)-now. Its win (win a World Series)-now. Its not like they don't already have two very good middle infielders that Profar could come up and just blow out of the water. That's why I'm surprised they would take him off the market as "reported".

 

Teams rarely trade a top 3-5 prospect the caliber of Profar, much less for a rental like Greinke who won't return comp picks if he didn't resign with Texas. Plus, the Rangers have a deep enough farm system so that they will be able to acquire a piece at the deadline if they want without having to give up Profar.