The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[trwi7]

They asked if this hurt Greinke's trade value and he basically said absolutely not. Teams already know what they need to know about Greinke and since he's not hurt, it's not a hit to his trade value.

[Eye Black]

I just seem to get the sense that the trade market is really cool on Greinke right now. We'll see what happens, but I have a bad feeling they're going to have to just let him walk and take the compensation picks.

 

Unfortunately that would only be a single compensation pick following the 1st round.

[brewmann04]

Angels do not seem to be a real good match in terms of prospects.

[PrinceEatMeat]

In terms of a Greinke trade we should hope that Hamels re-signs with the Phillies soon, and then Greinke is Plan A for the Rangers. They are the best match, and will be better if they need to go hard after Greinke.

[nate82]

I wonder if the Angels would do this kind of a deal:

 

Morales, Cowart/Segura, and Richards for Greinke and the after the 2nd round comp pick.

 

I would rather take Morales over Bourjos as Bourjos is rather redundant for the Brewers. I would rather have a platoon of Schafer and Gomez over having Bourjos on the team. Between Cowart and Segura I would take Cowart over Segura as I am not confident in Segura sticking at SS. If the Brewers were confident in Segura sticking at SS I could see them taking him over Cowart but to me I believe Cowart is the better talent. In A+ Cowart currently has a .962 OPS and I really believe that he will be a great 3B in the majors and I believe his a more sure bet than Segura is. I am more high on Cowart than I am on Olt from the Rangers.

[Raw Biz]

Angels do not seem to be a real good match in terms of prospects.

 

Why do you say that? The Angels probably match up the best behind the Rangers in terms of quality/position of prospects and actually showing interest in Greinke. Obviously the Rangers are number 1 but I think the Angels are a solid 2nd and after that, everyone drops off. The Braves basically have only pitching (and some are struggling mightily this year), the Tigers have Turner and Castellanos (who they really don't wanna trade), and the Orioles have Schoop after not wanting to part with Machado/Bundy.

 

 

I wonder if the Angels would do this kind of a deal:

 

Morales, Cowart/Segura, and Richards for Greinke and the after the 2nd round comp pick.

 

I would be all over that deal. I'd actually prefer both Cowart and Segura and leave out Morales (as he's almost 30 and not sure if he's fully recovered from his devastating injury). But if that was the offer, I'm on it.

[nate82]

 

 

I wonder if the Angels would do this kind of a deal:

 

Morales, Cowart/Segura, and Richards for Greinke and the after the 2nd round comp pick.

 

I would be all over that deal. I'd actually prefer both Cowart and Segura and leave out Morales (as he's almost 30 and not sure if he's fully recovered from his devastating injury). But if that was the offer, I'm on it.

 

Could always just flip Morales either in the off season or to another team for another prospect or two. Boston would be a good fit in the off season as I don't see Ortiz resigning with the Red Sox. I would take Bogaerts straight up for Morales.

[paul253]

http://tracking.si.com/2012/07/18/texas-rangers-cole-hamels-zack-greinke-cliff-lee/

 

Doesn't really tell us anything we don't already know, but it brings up Cliff Lee's name for the first time. The guy is owed a ton of money so I don't think it's most likely scenario. Still though, it would be nice if Philly started winning some games and got back into the wild card race so Hamels and Lee are off the market. I really think Texas would be the best trading partner. If we can get Mike Olt it would make trading Ramirez more of a possibility. Olt and Loux would be a very nice return.

[GAME05]

i thought the Rangers said Olt and Profar are off the table for any rental.

[Oldcity]

What would really be nice is if Philly signed Hamels. Then teams who want an elite guy would need to focus on Greinke.

[HiAndTight]

Assuming that they are telling the truth and he's not injured, in about a week, I'd offer Greinke a contract for a tad less than Cain received (5/110 or thereabouts)- but sweetening it with an option for not only a sixth season, but also a seventh (vesting based on innings pitched). I'd give him and his agent a 72 hour window for him to accept or decline. If he declines, he's not coming back regardless in the off season. Then, if the team hasn't gained any ground in the meantime (6 back of the division is kind of my invisible line), I put him on the market. I certainly wouldn't conduct an OBO type trade though.... if I can't get good talent back, I just let him walk and take the pick.

 

 

Agreed. If you project forward, the Brewers have the resources to spend 120 million in the near future, Weeks will be a better player, we're loaded at catcher, Rodgers, Peralta and other relievers are pitching very well in the minors, mitigating how much we'll have to go out and spend on relievers.

 

We have those fringe pieces in our system right now.

 

PLUS, we have some very nice starting pitchers. Fiers, Thornburg, Nelson either Peralta or Rogers(though I see Rogers as a reliever), Jungman and Bradyley down the road. Building a rotation with Greinke, Gallardo, Fiers, Thornburg and say Peralta/Jungman/Bradley/Burgos could be a dominant starting staff.

 

Relief pitching is up and down, but we've got some good arms. Axford I think will bounce back, Manzanillo after he has a year to come back from his injury, Rogers, etc...

 

Offensively, Hart, Weeks, Braun, Aram, Gamel, Aoki, Lucroy and Maldonado, Schafter, Gennett, Morris, and those are just guys that are possibly ready in the next 18 months.

 

But if you lose Greinke, I think that it all falls apart. He's kinda the guy that decides if we're competitive for the next 5-6 years or the guy who decides if we should just sell everyone and everything.

 

 

But yes, sign him.

 

5 years 115 million with a 6 years option, mutual option for 24 million, 4 million dollar buyout, 7th year option for 26 million with a 6 million dollar buyout.

 

And without even touching on any of the young A+ or lower guys

 

That's 5 years at 119 million guaranteed.

 

It gives us a pen that could be absolutely dominant, it gives us 4 even 5 potential top 5 players at their position, 3 who could be top 10-12, a very good bench, and a BP that's just too far out to really project, but Axford, Rodgers, Parra, Wooten, Heckathorn, Scarpetta, whoever and you know you always have guys that come out of nowhere and that could be very solid.

 

But without that dominant #1 that team isn't good enough to win it all. A lot of teams are like that. VERY good teams(and this is a good case scenario).

 

So it all hinges on Greinke. I understand that we can't go nuts on one player. I never thought Prince was realistic. I thought that 7 and 150 for Prince was realistic, but the Yankees would have just upped it. But every once in a while a player comes along that simply is worth it.

 

 

And I don't even want to think about some of the guys we have in Arcia, Taylor, Pena, Ortega, Rivera, Prince, and just a slew of others who have very good potential, but aren't in the picture yet. Could be stars, could be Pascuals.

 

(By the way, I love Brooks Hall...but again, too far away). You just have to look past numbers SOMETIMES when developing pitchers. They're often persuaded to try and go away from their put away pitch in a 1-2 count in lieu of a pitch they're working on and it can lead to inflated numbers. This happens less with college arms, but it still obviously does.

 

Anyway, without Greinke, I think the way things fall in line is that we spend our max and end up being a 80-85 win team. WITH Greinke we have the POTENTIAL every year to be a 90+ win team and contender year in and year out.

 

 

 

And again, there's always that X-Factor. Maybe Gamel's done here. Hope not because I still think he can be very good. But maybe Hart and Aoki stay where they are now, and Schafer becomes a player we didn't expect out of him. A Steve Finley player. We sign a passable SS, or Prince moves back there(still baffling why he left) and we get a couple nice surprises in the playoffs.

 

 

I see either great things in the Brewers future, purgatory, or a complete rebuild in which we have the chance to actually not waste Braun's prime years. And it SHOULD all hinge on Zach Greinke, the guy who's a legit Ace, who repeats his delivery every time, who is as low of an injury risk as you can get and who is a workhorse and a perfect fit.

 

The big problem is, the Olt's and Profar's(who I was told over and over again that I underestimated Profar by suggested that Greinke+K-Rod or Greinke+Axford for Profar would be a deal I'd be happy to make).

 

At this point, I'd be happy to give up Hart+Greinke for Profar, or just Gallardo for Profar, and then make about 7 separate trades to add prospects.

[SRB]

Why do you folks think Texas is a better fit than Los Angeles? Texas has the better farm system, obviously, but it's not like they are going to trade Profar (probably not Olt either). The positions the Brewers need the most are SS/SP, and the Angels have two top-100-caliber prospects at those positions that they seem willing to trade and who could contribute as early as 2013 (Segura/Richards).

 

Assuming Melvin & Co. scout Segura and think he can stick at SS, of course.

[jjfanec]

What would really be nice is if Philly signed Hamels. Then teams who want an elite guy would need to focus on Greinke.

 

Completely agree. Get Hamels off the market and Zach will easily be the best pitcher out there. Then start a bidding war

[slappzilla]

i thought the Rangers said Olt and Profar are off the table for any rental.

I saw that on twitter as well.

[slappzilla]

Rangers said Profar off the market.

[monty57]

i thought the Rangers said Olt and Profar are off the table for any rental.

 

...and Perez. However, GM's say things all the time. Maybe they won't be traded, but a phone call from Melvin saying "I want Olt, and if I don't get him Greinke will be in an Angels uniform tomorrow" may may the Rangers rethink their stance.

 

Every GM wants to pay as little as possible for "rentals," and everyone with "rentals" wants to get as much as they can. This could be a negotiating technique by Texas: They probably aren't trading Profar, but maybe their max offer for Greinke/Hamels would be Olt + a lesser prospect. By saying they won't trade Profar, Olt or Perez, they can start out with a lower offer, and then "give ground" by saying "okay, you can get Olt, but that's it," and the opposing GM will feel they've pressed it as far as possible.

 

Or, maybe they really aren't willing to trade Olt. No GM will ever know unless they ask.

[jjfanec]

The question with the Rangers is how much does their past two seasons of falling just short sway them to make a big splash. Can a team that close sit back and not make a big move? They are a smart organization but they have a enough talent to not mortgage their future while still trading really good prospects

[paul253]

I saw that on twitter as well.

 

It's hard to claim you are in play for one of the top two pitchers on the trade market and then say you refuse to trade any of your best prospects. Whether it's Greinke or Hamels, I would be willing to guess the Rangers would have to part with at least one of Olt or Perez.

[monty57]

Hart+Greinke for Profar

 

Y'know, I was just thinking that Hart would be a good guy to add into a Texas deal in an effort to up the return. They're pretty stacked across the board, and don't need another bat, but I'd have to think they'd listen if Hart's name were thrown out there. Then they'd get the rent-an-ace pitcher they're looking for and get a non-rental All Star. Their's no way any GM would trade Greinke and Hart for "only one prospect," because if that prospect doesn't turn out to be a perennial All-Star he'll be crucified by the fans and the media, but I could see a trade headlined by Profar with some lesser prospects thrown in.

 

Texas gets a really, really good chance of winning the World Series this year, and get a bat to help out next year when they could lose Hamilton, and they get a draft pick when he leaves after next year. We get a stud SS for the long-term and even with a $80-90M payroll we'd have plenty of money if we don't re-sign Greinke, don't owe $10.333MM to Hart and add a good pre-arby guy.

 

Rangers said Profar off the market.

 

What I heard was "we're not trading him for a rental." It's not likely, but it may be worth a shot. If we're really looking for a long-term answer at SS, he is the best option out there. If he turns out to be the next Troy Tulowitzki, Melvin looks like a genius. If he turns out to be a bust or even an average-ish player, Melvin will get second-guessed forever. But I guess that's the risk with any big trade.

[monty57]

I saw that on twitter as well.

 

It's hard to claim you are in play for one of the top two pitchers on the trade market and then say you refuse to trade any of your best prospects. Whether it's Greinke or Hamels, I would be willing to guess the Rangers would have to part with at least one of Olt or Perez.

 

That's why I kind of think it's a bit of a ploy. They're trying to set the market low in the same way the Phillies were trying to set the market high when they said they'd expect four or five prospects for Hamels. From a negotiating standpoint, I think they could be saying "Profar's off the market but we'd go as high as Olt or Perez."

 

The frustrating thing is that while Texas and Philly are posturing and the Dodgers and Angels are screaming "someone trade with us!!!" the Brewers seem to be spinning around in circles and falling over.

[dlk9s]

The frustrating thing is that while Texas and Philly are posturing and the Dodgers and Angels are screaming "someone trade with us!!!" the Brewers seem to be spinning around in circles and falling over.

 

"seem to be"

 

None of us have any idea what has been going on in the front office.

[monty57]

The frustrating thing is that while Texas and Philly are posturing and the Dodgers and Angels are screaming "someone trade with us!!!" the Brewers seem to be spinning around in circles and falling over.

 

"seem to be"

 

None of us have any idea what has been going on in the front office.

 

That's why I always try to qualify my responses with things like "seem to be," "likely" and "probably." CYA - cover your assets :-)

 

I hope the Brewer brass sat down a month or more ago and said "what are we going to do here," and Melvin started testing the water. Honestly, I hope they sat down before the season and said "we're losing a lot of talent after this season, so what's the plan if we aren't winning." I hope that as we sit here less than two weeks from the trade deadline that they are 90%+ certain as to what they're going to do. It's always good to have hope.

[fondybrewfan]

If there is anything that we have learned about DM over the course of his career at MIL is that he plays everything extremely close to the vest. It is pointless to speculate at all because Melvin continously completes deals that no one sees coming until the last minute.

 

To think that a MLB GM is not doing due diligence and trying to find ways to improve the organization both at the MLB level and MILB level is really doing a disservice to them. And honestly from the viewpoint of a GM; you really don't want to throw in the towel on a year until you absolutely have to and cleary MIL has not reached that point where the playoffs are unattainable. Yes a lot of things would have to go right but it isn't impossible; our record this year is not that much worse than the same time last year.

[paul253]

As bad as this sounds I almost hope they lose the series in Cincy. I still do not consider them to be a playoff team and I am really, really worried that Melvin and Mark A. will grasp to any glimmer of hope they can find. Even if they win 2 of 3 in Cincy they'll be 7 games out of first place and they'll still be behind 4 or 5 teams in the wild care race. Meanwhile, the system REALLY needs an influx of talent, especially position players at the higher levels. Obtaining a Segura or an Olt or a Machado would be huge. How about Ramirez for Lee and Gould and Greinke for Olt and Loux. I would be very satisfied with those two deals.

[Raw Biz]

Why do you folks think Texas is a better fit than Los Angeles? Texas has the better farm system, obviously, but it's not like they are going to trade Profar (probably not Olt either). The positions the Brewers need the most are SS/SP, and the Angels have two top-100-caliber prospects at those positions that they seem willing to trade and who could contribute as early as 2013 (Segura/Richards).

 

Assuming Melvin & Co. scout Segura and think he can stick at SS, of course.

 

This isn't like football where you can target positions of need. You should almost always be targeting the best player available. Since you said Texas has the best farm system, thats who you probably want to deal with first. And some prospects take longer than others to reach the bigs, other trades can happen, there's FA signings, etc. so you don't really know what the makeup of the team will be. If Melvin traded ARam, we would likely need a 3B (unless you go with Green) so Olt would fit nicely there (I think Texas is nuts if they think they won't have to give up Olt in a deal for Greinke/Hamels).