The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[Warning Track Power]

I don't think anyone has more high upside as an OF than Justin Upton. Yes he isn't a prospect anymore, however he is a a middle of the order type bat, he'll only be 25 next month and has 3 years and about $38 million left on his contract. I'd rather take my chance with him than any prospects not named Profar or Machado, which we have all said are unrealistic gets anyways.

 

Put another way, he isn't a Kevin Mench type acquisition.

[Raw Biz]

Thinking realistically here and how Melvin has operated in the past with requiring MLB talent, how about a 3 way deal involving us, Texas and Arizona:

 

Texas gets Greinke +

Arizona gets Olt, Martin Perez & Aramis Ramirez

Milwaukee gets Upton, David Hernandez

 

I'd be more than happy with this situation given Greinke's seeming unwillingness to sign long term.

 

I'd rather just deal with Texas then and get Olt and Perez. The key is young, CHEAP, LONG-TERM talent. Sure Upton is young and relatively cheap for his talent-level. But I don't think 3 years is long-term and he's still making more than $10mil/yr. We need pre-arby guys to round out the roster. Sure it might be nice financially to get rid of the ARam contract but I'd rather get the other talent first, then find a deal for ARam separately.

[Hate those Rodents]

How about letting KROD close a few games to get his trade value up. Then deal KROD and Greinke to Detroit for Castenallos and Turner. We can pay whatever they wish in salary within reason to get both players.

[adambr2]

That wouldn't be a bad idea, but here's what I fully expect to happen:

 

Melvin halfheartedly gauges the interest in Greinke for the next two weeks. The offers dwindle as potential teams lose starts from Greinke and land other options like Dempster and Hamels.

 

Melvin stands pat, and tells us about how he thinks we're still in it and so wasn't really interested in losing Greinke.

[trwi7]

Watch this video and then cry.

[adambr2]

Nothing we could be surprised about anyway. Melvin hasn't traded a MLB level player when his value was high since Scott Podsednik.

[Warning Track Power]

Watch this video and then cry.

 

Why cry? Unless I misudnerstood, Morosi indicated Greinke might re-sign. Couple that with a Ramirez trade to the Dodgers for Zach Lee or Eovaldi and I think that we would have the makings of an excellent rotation moving forward.

[markedman5]

According to TH Brewers would not get 2 picks for Greinke now...only a supplemental after round 1

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/162532436.html

[paul253]

I don't buy it. Unless he is hurt I fully expect him to come back and pitch like he has most of the season. This guy was making it sound like Greinke is all of a sudden going to re-sign with Milwaukee because he has had a bad half a month?

[trwi7]

Watch this video and then cry.

 

Why cry? Unless I misudnerstood, Morosi indicated Greinke might re-sign. Couple that with a Ramirez trade to the Dodgers for Zach Lee or Eovaldi and I think that we would have the makings of an excellent rotation moving forward.

 

I guess I don't want to re-sign and want to get value for him at the deadline.

[zzzmanwitz]

I thought that was only if the player was traded in mid-season.

[trwi7]

According to TH Brewers would not get 2 picks for Greinke now...only a supplemental after round 1

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/162532436.html

 

This is correct.

[monty57]

For those who don't want to scroll through a Q&A, here's what Hardricourt said:

 

"Under the new CBA, former teams DO NOT get the first-round pick of the signing team. If you make a qualifying offer equal to the top 125 paid players (about $12 M this year), you get a supplemental pick after the first round. That's all. One pick instead of two as in the past. The signing team forfeits its first round pick but it doesn't go to another club. You merely lose it. Plus, if you trade for an upcoming free agent in the middle of the season, you get no draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere over the winter. Thus, many folks think teams will be hesitant to offer top prospects in trades for upcoming free agents. It will be interesting to see how that develops."

 

I did not know this, and if true it really reinforces my belief that Greinke needs to be traded. It also means that there is a good chance we won't get anything in return for Marcum. Losing Greinke for a supplemental pick and losing Marcum for nothing would be brutal.

[slappzilla]

Gotta put KRod in the closer role so his value goes up and we can get something for him as well.

[monty57]

To add onto my last post, the rule as Hardricourt explains it will make it more difficult for Melvin to sign a FA starting pitcher to shore up the staff next year. There should be no way we'd be willing to give up our first rounder for a so-so starter to round out a non-playoff rotation.

 

If we don't re-sign Greinke / Marcum or trade for some starting pitching, there's a good chance we'll have a rotation of Gallardo, Fiers, Estrada, Thornburg, Peralta. The only FA we'd sign would be someone that another team isn't willing to risk signing to a one-year/$12MM contract.

 

Since I don't think we'll be able to re-sign Greinke and there may be too much risk in signing Marcum, we need to trade for starting pitching.

[torts]

I CANNOT WAIT FOR A ROTATION WITH OUT RANDY 'SUPPAN'd' WOLF

[monty57]

Watch this video and then cry.

 

Why cry? Unless I misudnerstood, Morosi indicated Greinke might re-sign. Couple that with a Ramirez trade to the Dodgers for Zach Lee or Eovaldi and I think that we would have the makings of an excellent rotation moving forward.

 

I just don't see them signing Greinke and then trading away "the cleanup hitter." If they sign Greinke, they're going to continue along in "go for it" mode, and they wouldn't trust Green at 3B in that scenario. My concern about this is that I fear it will lead to an eventual fire sale where we shed talented players purely for salary relief without getting any talent in return, or we end up looking like the Cubs of a couple years ago with a few aging, high-priced players eating up our entire payroll and no cheap talent to fill in around them.

 

I could get behind signing Greinke if we were to trade Ramirez for two of Zach Lee/Eovaldi/Gould and trading Hart for a package headlined by Olt. Maybe we could even flip K-Rod to a contending team in need of a setup man/closer and get a young talented bullpen arm in return. We'd probably be down for a year, but by 2014 we should be on the upswing. I just don't see us doing that. I think we're either "going for it" or not, and signing Greinke means we're "going for it."

[dlk9s]

I think the Brewers should schedule a ton of exhibition games against the Lovely Ladies. That would bring in loads and loads of money, as the Lovely Ladies have very high prestige, which could then be used to either buy established stars or power-up the young, cheap guys with higher ceilings.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3a_Kh4Kq8Ts#1m52s

 

http://i.imgur.com/qkbxU.gif

[fondybrewfan]

I am starting to prepare myself to be entirely let down by the return we get for Grienke. To this point I have underestimated how big of a deal the lack of draft pick compensation is going to be for the buying team. Even if they ship out a 1st round type talent they used to be able to get a high pick right back, not anymore. I don't think the Brewers have much of a chance of getting an elite prospect from anyone for that reason. They might be better off taking the draft picks this offseason although those returns would come much later. If Doug is worried at all about his job he might be more inclined to get a immediate allbeit mediocre return through a trade rather than get a draft pick in 2013 which wouldn't sniff the big leagues until 2015 at the earliest.

 

And I don't know that it will even be DM's fault if the return seems like crap compared to prior years; the trade market has just fundamentally changed.

[adamds22]

I don't see signing Greinke as a going for it now attitude so to speak. You have to think unless we go 4-1 over the next 5 games that the ownership starts to come to the conclusion that we are done for this year. However signing Greinke would give them the ability to have a shot at competing again next year.

 

If we sign him, next year we lose Marcum, Wolf, Krod who all have decent price tags right now (you try to trade Krod and maybe Morgan before the deadline now), you plug in 3 of Fiers, Estrada, Narv, Thornberg, Peralta, Rodgers into the rotation next year and possibly move one or two of them to the pen, hope that Ax figures out how to pitch ahead again and you really don't have a whole lot of holes to fill next year.

 

We would need to answer the SS issue, possibly find something at CF but everywhere else we will be set for better or worse. Braun obviously stays in LF, Aoki is cheap and will likely stay in RF, Hart stays at 1b, can't do much with Weeks but hope he figures it out at 2B, Ramirez likely ins't going anywhere so he'll be at 3B, and we are set at C. Probably need to add a few arms to the pen but I can't really say that a rotation of Yo, ZG and three of the six mentioned above would be much worse than what we have going now if not better. Like everyone has said recently our bullpen produces at league average and we are right in the race again next year.

[adamds22]

I don't see signing Greinke as a going for it now attitude so to speak. You have to think unless we go 4-1 over the next 5 games that the ownership starts to come to the conclusion that we are done for this year. However signing Greinke would give them the ability to have a shot at competing again next year.

 

If we sign him, next year we lose Marcum, Wolf, Krod who all have decent price tags right now (you try to trade Krod and maybe Morgan before the deadline now), you plug in 3 of Fiers, Estrada, Narv, Thornberg, Peralta, Rodgers into the rotation next year and possibly move one or two of them to the pen, hope that Ax figures out how to pitch ahead again and you really don't have a whole lot of holes to fill next year.

 

We would need to answer the SS issue, possibly find something at CF but everywhere else we will be set for better or worse. Braun obviously stays in LF, Aoki is cheap and will likely stay in RF, Hart stays at 1b, can't do much with Weeks but hope he figures it out at 2B, Ramirez likely ins't going anywhere so he'll be at 3B, and we are set at C. Probably need to add a few arms to the pen but I can't really say that a rotation of Yo, ZG and three of the six mentioned above would be much worse than what we have going now if not better. Like everyone has said recently our bullpen produces at league average and we are right in the race again next year.

 

Granted I don't think we do sign him

[RockCoCougars]

Assuming that they are telling the truth and he's not injured, in about a week, I'd offer Greinke a contract for a tad less than Cain received (5/110 or thereabouts)- but sweetening it with an option for not only a sixth season, but also a seventh (vesting based on innings pitched). I'd give him and his agent a 72 hour window for him to accept or decline. If he declines, he's not coming back regardless in the off season. Then, if the team hasn't gained any ground in the meantime (6 back of the division is kind of my invisible line), I put him on the market. I certainly wouldn't conduct an OBO type trade though.... if I can't get good talent back, I just let him walk and take the pick.

[JohnBriggs12]

I am starting to prepare myself to be entirely let down by the return we get for Grienke. To this point I have underestimated how big of a deal the lack of draft pick compensation is going to be for the buying team. Even if they ship out a 1st round type talent they used to be able to get a high pick right back, not anymore. I don't think the Brewers have much of a chance of getting an elite prospect from anyone for that reason. They might be better off taking the draft picks this offseason although those returns would come much later. If Doug is worried at all about his job he might be more inclined to get a immediate allbeit mediocre return through a trade rather than get a draft pick in 2013 which wouldn't sniff the big leagues until 2015 at the earliest.

 

And I don't know that it will even be DM's fault if the return seems like crap compared to prior years; the trade market has just fundamentally changed.

 

 

You are right. Not only is the team that would get Greinke not be getting the picks along with him but there's enough arms available that the buying team can be choosy if Melvin demands too much. I'd be thrilled if all they got from Texas was a young controllable starting pitcher that would replace Greinke in the rotation. Holland for Greinke would be fine by me. Brewers could use a lefty in the mix for next year.

[rluzinski]

I am asking this to the stat folks out there and because I really don't know what to think. If you watch Greinke, his stuff is amazing he certainly passes the eye test. He is the one Brewers pitcher out there that I feel that could throw a no-hitter any given start.

 

I know that his FIP, xFIP, and all other peripherals show that he is unlucky. His ZiPs projection shows he should dominate the rest of this year.....However, his ERA for the past three years are listed below.

 

2010: 4.17

2011: 3.83

2012: 3.58

 

You could say he is unlucky, but guys on the same team produce better ERA's. I mean Randy Wolf had a better ERA last year. They basically had the same crummy defense and same park factors so is it really bad luck?

 

I guess, I just am not sure I want to pay $20 million plus for that type of player. For the stat folks, is it just that eventually he should have another year like 2009? Is is the alternatives are just that bad?

 

FIP assumes a league average BABIP for a pitcher. You look at pitchers with long careers and it's clear that being able to suppress hits on balls in play is a real skill, however. The problem is that it takes a HUGE sample size to estimate a pitcher's "true" BABIP. One or two season isn't going to do it. Greinke has 1,400 career IP, though, so it's at least worth taking a peak.

 

League BABIP over the last 5 years has averaged about .297. Greinke has a career BABIP of .314. This year, it's .338. Last year, it was .323. Data source:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01-pitch.shtml#pitching_batting::none

 

Part of the recent increase can be attributed to Greinke turning into more of a ground ball pitcher:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1943_P_season_full_9_20120716.png

 

Part of it could also just be statistical noise ("bad luck"). Of course, perhaps Greinke has dramatically changed his approach the last couple of years (there was an article about him pitching to FIP a few years ago. Someone would have to dive into the pitch FX data to see if they could find anything interesting, though. Otherwise, it's all just speculation.

 

Long story short, Greinke has a career BABIP that is above average and has turned into more of a groundball pitcher, so I would expect his FIP to be at least a little optimistic. But FIP is not a projection.... it's FIP. I would expect advanced projection systems like ZiPS to take those kind of things into account, however. His current ZiPS projected ERA is 3.03. Before his last two crummy starts, his ERA was 3.17. Now it's 3.57.

 

If Melvin wants to be a little conservative, maybe he assumed a projection of 3.25 ERA and 200 IP for 2013. That makes him worth around $20 mil for that year. Then Melvin has to estimate how much his production will fall as he ages and also estimate the odds of him getting hurt. Finally, Melvin will need to assume some level of inflation. I guess to me, if we are talking about a long term deal averaging $20 mil, I would just let him walk.

[monty57]

I don't see signing Greinke as a going for it now attitude so to speak. You have to think unless we go 4-1 over the next 5 games that the ownership starts to come to the conclusion that we are done for this year. However signing Greinke would give them the ability to have a shot at competing again next year.

 

If we sign him, next year we lose Marcum, Wolf, Krod who all have decent price tags right now (you try to trade Krod and maybe Morgan before the deadline now), you plug in 3 of Fiers, Estrada, Narv, Thornberg, Peralta, Rodgers into the rotation next year and possibly move one or two of them to the pen, hope that Ax figures out how to pitch ahead again and you really don't have a whole lot of holes to fill next year.

 

We would need to answer the SS issue, possibly find something at CF but everywhere else we will be set for better or worse. Braun obviously stays in LF, Aoki is cheap and will likely stay in RF, Hart stays at 1b, can't do much with Weeks but hope he figures it out at 2B, Ramirez likely ins't going anywhere so he'll be at 3B, and we are set at C. Probably need to add a few arms to the pen but I can't really say that a rotation of Yo, ZG and three of the six mentioned above would be much worse than what we have going now if not better. Like everyone has said recently our bullpen produces at league average and we are right in the race again next year.

 

I've added this up a couple of times, but don't have time to add it up now, so I may be a little off on the numbers. Basically, if we sign Greinke for $20MM/year, don't trade any of our high-priced guys, and resign most of our arby guys, we will have around $89MM going to 15 players. If we use three pre-arby guys in the rotation, that's about $91MM for 18 players. We'd need a pre-arby SS and bench, so welcome back Bianchi and Ransom. $92MM for 21 players. The rest of the bench and bullpen will also need to be really cheap, probably relegating Green and Gamel to bench roles along with Maldonado. Our budget this year prior to K-Rod accepting arby was supposed to be in the high $80MM's, and we are almost certainly going to see attendance drop next season. We do have additional revenues, but I would be surprised if we're much over $90MM. Therefore, even with guys like Ransom/Bianchi starting, we won't have any money to upgrade anywhere.

 

We will be relying on three untested pitchers who have never been heralded by any scouts as being top prospects. I highly doubt that Greinke, Gallardo, Fiers, Estrada, Thornburg is a playoff rotation. We will have most of the same crap bullpen as this year without K-Rod. We still would have no depth at almost any position, and everyone will be a year older (and that's not a good thing for those over 30). We won't have any money for "fixes" as the season goes on. It's possible, if everything goes right, that we could compete next year, but it's probably more likely that we don't, and then we go into 2014 without Hart and in our last year with Ramirez, Weeks and Gallardo a still-weak farm system, and a bunch of people screaming that we can't trade any of them because then we won't have a chance at the playoffs.

 

Personally, I'm willing to go young in 2013 for more upside into the future. At the very least, we have to trade some guys like Kottaras, Morgan, Gomez and K-Rod to try to get some bullpen arms or bench bats who can contribute for league minimum next year. It's not much, but I'm hoping for something that can help. With Marcum basically off the trade market, if we don't trade any of Greinke, Hart or Ramirez, we won't have any other way of getting younger or cheaper.