The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[monty57]

Personally, I'm in the camp to give him a blank check.

 

but essentially I would sign him longterm unless I was absolutely blown away with a trade offer

 

lock him up!

 

Sign him. Do whatever it takes.

 

For those of you who make these type of posts, do you really mean that you want the Brewers to pay anything for him? Doesn't there have to be a limit? What realistically is your limit for what you think the Brewers should pay, and how do you suggest "freeing up" the money to allow for said contract to be signed?

[markedman5]

You can do both. The Brewers obviously have a number in dollars and years that they won't go beyond for him. Trade him now and then try your best to sign him after the season.

 

At least then if if says no they have gotten value for him beyond the draft choices. Obviously it depends on the trade offers you get.

 

Zach wants to be paid but he also wants to win.....Brewers have to show him they are capable of reloading.

[slappzilla]

essentially I would sign him longterm unless I was absolutely blown away with a trade offer that brought us back a top (and I mean top 5-10 overall) prospect

Even if signing him long term means signing him to a ridiculous 7 year, $175M deal?

 

Would you have signed Prince to a 10yr $210M deal, knowing the Brewers payroll most likely maxes out between 90-100M for at least the next 5 years?

 

It seems as if too many people are overlooking the affordability factor here, or lack of.

[Oldcity]

Oh wow. Please don't be hurt.

[jmeks23]

Recharging his batteries according to Ken Rosenthal. I don't know how to link tweets really but its:

[Warning Track Power]

Imho, the Brewers are currently at a crossroads in terms of the organizational approach to team-building. They can make the conscious choice to continue to overpay (both via trade & FA) for players as short-term solutions, or they can choose to revamp how they assess and value talent.

 

This is an excellent point. However, I do not believe the two to be mutually exclusive. I for one stand firmly in the re-sign Greinke camp, with my willingness to go to a max of 6 years $120 million. Having Yo and Greinke will allow us to compete annually even in a year like this where injuries have decimated the team.

 

I also believe the Brewers should, beginning in 2013, team build through internal resources like Fiers, Estrada, Thornburg, Narveson, Peralta or cost controlled pitchers who won't make large salaries. Essentially you have 5 guys battling for 3 spots. If we sign Greinke, then the Brewers will have to rely on the fruits of the farm system and hope a few pan out. I am comfortable with this given the frontline of Greinke and Gallardo.

 

Similarly, the Brewers will have to rely on the farm system to produce cheap alternatives for the everyday lineup which means a trade of A-Ram, Morgan, Gomez etc. I'm not sold on Green at 3B but I'd be willing to experiment given A-Ram isn't going to see his value any higher than today in the next 2+ seasons. Additionally, Schafer should be able to provide everything Morgan and Gomez have in 2012 for a drastic reduction in salary. Losing these contracts may allow for Hart and Weeks salaries to remain on the books for another season or two before Scooter or Gamel or some other cheap source provide coverage at 1B and 2B.

 

I think this is very feasible but is dependent upon Greinke's willingness to re-sign.

[3and2Fastball]

Phillies and Hamels supposedly close on a major deal. Watch that be a mammoth deal that will jack up Greinke's worth beyond belief.

 

That would also really up Greinke's trade value at the deadline, which is pretty cool

 

Mark will spend but he's not going into his own pockets.

 

I know it is easy for me to say because it is not my money, but imho he should go into his pockets if he wants to win a World Series. Isn't the guy a Billionaire? Even if he isn't, say he has $500,000,000 in personal assets. Is it really going to effect his life even in an insignificant way if he has $425 million instead of $500 million? I mean c'mon now

 

I would argue that $175 for me to take my kid and wife to a Brewers game, pay for parking and eats and sit in the Loge Infield seats almost certainly effects my family's budget more than Mark A spending $75-$100 million would effect his family's lifestyle/budget etc

[jerichoholicninja]

For those of you who make these type of posts, do you really mean that you want the Brewers to pay anything for him? Doesn't there have to be a limit? What realistically is your limit for what you think the Brewers should pay, and how do you suggest "freeing up" the money to allow for said contract to be signed?

 

I don't have a limit. This organization has shown zero ability to develop pitching outside of Gallardo. The success of this franchise since Mark and Doug have taken over, last year aside, has been in spite of quality pitching. Signing Greinke gives you one of the best #1 and #2 starters in the league. It lessens your reliance on hoping Thornburg, Peralta, Fiers, etc. actually turn out and hopefully the payroll inflexibility keeps Doug from signing another Suppan, Wolf, or Gagne.

[Invader3K]

What's $75 million between friends, right?

[slappzilla]

It seems as if too many people are overlooking the affordability factor here, or lack of.

let me quote myself to push the main factor here...

[NievesNoNO]

Recharging his batteries? It seems like odd timing to me. If that's what it really is I don't like the decision when we're supposedly trying to make up ground against our division to sit the best pitcher on the team.

[GAME05]

given up 14 runs in the past 14 innings and in the middle of trade talks, so a 'recharge' isn't a bad idea.

[monty57]

For those of you who make these type of posts, do you really mean that you want the Brewers to pay anything for him? Doesn't there have to be a limit? What realistically is your limit for what you think the Brewers should pay, and how do you suggest "freeing up" the money to allow for said contract to be signed?

 

I don't have a limit. This organization has shown zero ability to develop pitching outside of Gallardo. The success of this franchise since Mark and Doug have taken over, last year aside, has been in spite of quality pitching. Signing Greinke gives you one of the best #1 and #2 starters in the league. It lessens your reliance on hoping Thornburg, Peralta, Fiers, etc. actually turn out and hopefully the payroll inflexibility keeps Doug from signing another Suppan, Wolf, or Gagne.

 

That line of thinking by much of our society has led to a record number of home foreclosures and bankruptcies in recent years. You can't run a business (and the Brewers are a business) this way. As a fan it's easy to say "any cost," but there always has to be a limit. Baseball teams have gone into bankruptcy in the past and baseball teams will go into bankruptcy in the future. I don't want the Brewers on that list.

 

Everything has a price and a value. If someone is willing to pay far over value for something, you're best off letting them have it. If a team is willing to offer a better-than-expected contract to Greinke this offseason, it would stand to reason that someone would offer a better-than-expected trade package for him this season. That is, unless we've waited too long to trade him as he may now be hurt.

 

But that leads us to the other side of the coin. What happens if we "back up the truck" and pay him $30MM a year just because we "have to have him" and then he has a Ben Sheets/Teddy Higuera streak which leaves him making 10-15 starts a season. Even if in some "fuzzy math world" we were able to afford a "blank check" contract for a superstar player, we certainly couldn't afford that contract for a non-performing player and still have any hope of succeeding.

 

Now, it could be possible to sign him if we were to trade players like Ramirez and Hart and bring in some good, pre-arby talent who could fill big roles on the MLB team for league minimum. Even then, we'd need a limit on what we could pay Grienke, but it may be possible to pay Braun, Gallardo, Weeks and Greinke if we have good players making league minimum, and we implement a strategy of trading "non-core" players when they get expensive and replacing them with guys from the minor leagues. In my humble opinion, it is not possible to pay Braun, Gallardo, Weeks, Hart, Ramirez and Greinke with little good pre-arby talent on the roster.

 

To me, the irony is that most posters who are calling for us to offer a "blank check" contract to Greinke are also vehemently opposed to the thought of trading away anyone else who is making a lot of money. This isn't a video game, it's real life with real money. If someone can post a realistic plan as to how we could reasonably expect to pay everyone, then I'd love to see it. To me, it looks like even without Greinke we're going to be paying a small number of player a large percentage of our budget, with little cheap talent to fill in the gaps. If we can keep everyone, sign Greinke, find a SS, fill out the rotation and the bullpen with good MLB players and still remain within a reasonable budget, than I would be ecstatic.

[NievesNoNO]

If he's close to being traded then 'recharging' is fine. I'm saying if they're not trading him then why skip your best starter with or without the rough short stretch he's had?

[rickh150]

As I stated in the trades forum, James Shields is the answer. He is on the block to be traded, supposedly. He's much cheaper than Greinke- we get two years of him for one year of Zach. He's signed through 2014, with both years actually being club options. If we could get him now for a trio of let's say Maldanado/Bradley/Goforth (Rays need catching and value young pitching), we could trade Greinke for prospects and hopefully a good young SS. So, yes, trade for solid contract controllable pitching and trade Greinke.

[dlk9s]

I think the Brewers should schedule a ton of exhibition games against the Lovely Ladies. That would bring in loads and loads of money, as the Lovely Ladies have very high prestige, which could then be used to either buy established stars or power-up the young, cheap guys with higher ceilings.

[Surhoff5]

I am asking this to the stat folks out there and because I really don't know what to think. If you watch Greinke, his stuff is amazing he certainly passes the eye test. He is the one Brewers pitcher out there that I feel that could throw a no-hitter any given start.

 

I know that his FIP, xFIP, and all other peripherals show that he is unlucky. His ZiPs projection shows he should dominate the rest of this year.....However, his ERA for the past three years are listed below.

 

2010: 4.17

2011: 3.83

2012: 3.58

 

You could say he is unlucky, but guys on the same team produce better ERA's. I mean Randy Wolf had a better ERA last year. They basically had the same crummy defense and same park factors so is it really bad luck?

 

I guess, I just am not sure I want to pay $20 million plus for that type of player. For the stat folks, is it just that eventually he should have another year like 2009? Is is the alternatives are just that bad?

[markedman5]

I think Randy Wolf was "lucky" last year. Greinke may be unlucky but at some point if you are dominant pitcher you should show dominant results. He had those results for only 1 year.

 

Zack has been very good but he has more puzzling starts then you would expect from a dominant starter which drives up the ERA.

 

The good thing is he has been injury free for the most part which is huge when considering paying top dollar for a pitcher.

 

To me the years are more of a worry then the money per year. Long term high money contracts have burned too many teams for me to feel good about them.

 

But then again it's not my money...........

[Baldkin]

I think the Brewers should schedule a ton of exhibition games against the Lovely Ladies. That would bring in loads and loads of money, as the Lovely Ladies have very high prestige, which could then be used to either buy established stars or power-up the young, cheap guys with higher ceilings.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3a_Kh4Kq8Ts#1m52s

[adambr2]

I'm just going to say it -- if the Brewers "stand pat" with the current team, win 75-80 games, and then go ahead and lose Greinke and Marcum to free agency, Doug Melvin should be fired. Won't be, but should be.

 

Marcum probably isn't currently worth the risk of extending the 1 year/$13M qualifying offer, especially if he ends up missing a significant portion of the season, so to lose both of them for two draft picks would be a pretty big failure.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'm just going to say it -- if the Brewers "stand pat" with the current team, win 75-80 games, and then go ahead and lose Greinke and Marcum to free agency, Doug Melvin should be fired. Won't be, but should be.

 

Marcum probably isn't currently worth the risk of extending the 1 year/$13M qualifying offer, especially if he ends up missing a significant portion of the season, so to lose both of them for two draft picks would be a pretty big failure.

 

I don't see that happening. Especially since he really made it seem like he doesn't view draft picks as a good return for losing players while in the booth during the game tonight. Made it sound to me like he won't let that happen. At least not with guys like Greinke.

[Hate those Rodents]

It seems Castenallos from Detroit might be tough to get. What about Greinke and Wolf (if he can have a good enough start or two) for Porcello and Turner? I don't think the Tiger brass is huge fans of Porcello in that park, and I think they'd be more willing to deal Turner than Castenallos. It's a bit outside the box, but then again, I kind of expect Doug to do something different than other team's gm's when he sells rather than just absorbing prospects (for better or worse).

[paul253]

If we can't get Castellanos then we'd better get Turner. I was hoping there'd be a way to pry Bruce Rondon away from them too. Maybe Greinke and KRod for Turner and Rondon.

[Warning Track Power]

Thinking realistically here and how Melvin has operated in the past with requiring MLB talent, how about a 3 way deal involving us, Texas and Arizona:

 

Texas gets Greinke +

Arizona gets Olt, Martin Perez & Aramis Ramirez

Milwaukee gets Upton, David Hernandez

 

I'd be more than happy with this situation given Greinke's seeming unwillingness to sign long term.

[Invader3K]

I don't know anything about David Hernandez (other than he's a 27 year old pitcher). Why would we want Upton though? We absolutely should not be trading for outfielders unless they are high upside prospects. Upton is under contract for three more years, but will be making quite a bit of coin.