The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[gregmag]

Matt Cain: 220 starts, 78-76, 1438 innings, 1.18 WHIP, 0.8 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 7.5 k/9, 125 ERA+

 

Zack Greinke: 217 starts, 85-76, 1396 innings, 1.26 WHIP, 0.9 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 115 ERA+

 

I can see the argument that Cain is worth more. I don't think it's easy to decide which guy is more attractive going forward. Greinke has better command, and his higher K rate gives him more room for error as he ages. He's generally had poor defenses behind him. But the differences in ERA and WHIP, while hardly massive, aren't trivial. I agree that, with more and more innings, the gulf between Greinke's 3TO numbers and his bottom line starts to look more legit. OTOH, I think the hypothesis that it's legit requires a concrete explanation, given the generally powerful correllation between 3TO numbers and results. The gulf could reasonably still come down to luck / noise, even over 1400 innings.

 

On the critiques of the Sabathia trade, I'd like to know who this stellar, cost-controlled player is that we could have gotten for LaPorta and Brantley. I can't see any reason to believe that such a trade was possible. Those guys were among our best young, cost-controlled players. If we hadn't wanted to acquire a high-leverage veteran, wouldn't the logical strategy have been just to keep them (and watch them develop into mediocre MLB players)?

[MNBrew]

Sign him. Do whatever it takes. Yes, I'm totally serious. Pull up the Brinks truck. Let him work in the war room on draft day. Who cares? Do whatever it takes -- much of which also probably means making the right kinds of baseball decisions that help him feel Milwaukee can continue to be a winning baseball team and not just a smaller but baseball-crazy town.

 

Then...

 

- Perhaps the injury to Marcum this year makes him an affordable 1-2 year risk on another contract. Maybe not. But I sure don't see the Brewers as having to decide yet whether or not that ship has sailed.

- Sayonara, Randy Wolf, after this year.

...Rotation stands to be Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum(?) &/or Narveson(?), Fiers, Estrada, possibly Thornburg. Not bad at all.

- Fix the bullpen BIG TIME. If Melvin has any trading deadline buying to do, I seriously think it's here (and if he can pull a legit SS rabbit out of his hat, that'd be awesome, too, but the 'pen is a much more terribly glaring area).

 

I, for one, hope they'll go hard after Grant Balfour. Guy's been nothing short of darn good ever since we traded him, & all in all it would've been better if we never had. But goodness knows no one in that 'pen past Axford & K-Rod have a track record nearly as solid as Balfour's past few years.

[torts]

lock him up!

[Ennder]

I would like to sign him but I don't see it as very likely. I still think it is a little too early to trade. The Pirates will be a non factor by the end of the season, almost everyone on their team is playing over their heads and they are still in 2nd place at this point. Passing the Reds and Cardinals is a very tall order though.

[brwrsfan]

Matt Cain: 220 starts, 78-76, 1438 innings, 1.18 WHIP, 0.8 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 7.5 k/9, 125 ERA+

 

Zack Greinke: 217 starts, 85-76, 1396 innings, 1.26 WHIP, 0.9 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 115 ERA+

 

I can see the argument that Cain is worth more. I don't think it's easy to decide which guy is more attractive going forward. Greinke has better command, and his higher K rate gives him more room for error as he ages. He's generally had poor defenses behind him. But the differences in ERA and WHIP, while hardly massive, aren't trivial. I agree that, with more and more innings, the gulf between Greinke's 3TO numbers and his bottom line starts to look more legit. OTOH, I think the hypothesis that it's legit requires a concrete explanation, given the generally powerful correllation between 3TO numbers and results. The gulf could reasonably still come down to luck / noise, even over 1400 innings.

 

On the critiques of the Sabathia trade, I'd like to know who this stellar, cost-controlled player is that we could have gotten for LaPorta and Brantley. I can't see any reason to believe that such a trade was possible. Those guys were among our best young, cost-controlled players. If we hadn't wanted to acquire a high-leverage veteran, wouldn't the logical strategy have been just to keep them (and watch them develop into mediocre MLB players)?

 

I think at least a small portion of Cain's "betterness" has to do with the fact that he pitches half his games in SF. It's a very large park, with weather that much of the time makes it very difficult to score runs. I'd have to imagine if Greinke pitched games in SF, his ERA and HR allowed would drop as well.

[brewmann04]

I think that Zack got this far he going to look into Fa. The Brewers most likely gave him their best Offer and now it only a matter if they will be Sellers or Buyers.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I want to sign him, but the amount of money we'll offer won't do it. Therefore, we need to trade him. There's no doubt about it. Can't come away with only draft picks for him. Melvin needs to capitalize and get a good return for him. It makes sense to wait until after these 6 games, but if we haven't made up ground by then, it's time to trade him.

[splitterpfj]

Please be careful not to turn this into another "What can we get for Greinke" thread...we already have one, in the Trade Rumors forum.

[TheCrew07]

I have no clue how you can second guess the C.C. trade

 

Really, all those posts later and we're still right where we started? You obviously aren't trying very hard to see or understand the other side of the argument.

 

On the critiques of the Sabathia trade, I'd like to know who this stellar, cost-controlled player is that we could have gotten for LaPorta and Brantley. I can't see any reason to believe that such a trade was possible.

 

Well the obvious name that comes immediately to mind is Jeff Niemann who the Rays were shopping for offense which they didn't get at the deadline and ultimately led to them signing Pat Burrell and trading Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce.

 

But I'm sure that was just another made up internet rumor and Niemann wasn't actually available.

 

We have no idea what names are discussed behind closed doors, but it seems disingenuous and rather dismissive to suggest there were no other trade possibilities than Sabathia. However that's the convenient and often repeated defense of Melvin, the "What else was he supposed to do?" defense. That question has literally been answered ad nauseum and while I have no doubt that Doug took the best deal of a specific type that was available in every trade he's made, that doesn't mean there weren't other deals out there for the taking.

 

I think it's fair to say Melvin isn't a very good judge of pitching talent, his FA acquisitions are the type that more statistical orientated posters would have favored, the most productive for the money type of player. Wolf was largely alright, but the rest of the starting pitchers he's acquired in FA... blah. It's also fair to say that he doesn't trade for high risk players with high ceilings, he chooses lesser talent that's more likely to contribute at MLB. He's never made a Teixeira type trade in Milwaukee, he's always been a buyer with prospects. Melvin's trading philosophies are as predictable as they are redundant, the same trades keep coming round and round...

[TooLiveBrew]

I have no clue how you can second guess the C.C. trade, and the most prevalent name thrown around in Prince Fielder rumors was Daniel Hudson. Yuck.

 

I'll take the two playoff runs, thank you very much.

The only pitcher whose name we heard linked to Fielder rumors when Fielder was in his walk year was Hudson. Just one year earlier, and there was a very widely-reported rumor that the Giants offered up Matt Cain for Fielder. But that's what happens when you hold onto players until they have little value left, like Melvin usually does.

 

Honestly RockCo, I have no idea how you can post so condescendingly about the prospect side of the game, when you clearly don't put a whole lot of effort into knowing what prospects are out there, and what rumored deals get thrown around. I really like you as a poster, but honestly it's been maddening to read some of your posts in this thread in particular.

 

I get it, you don't like the odds of developing talent internally, and love that the Brewers had two moderately-successful postseason runs. But like it or not, the Brewers will have to continue to develop talent internally (just like they did to build the framework of those two postseason teams). And on top of that, if you're going to go on record by saying that you'll "take the two playoff runs", then you sure won't be able to complain about 2012, or any other season going forward, if the Brewers struggle directly related to their lack of organizational depth/talent.

[Oldcity]

When he declines the 100 mil offer, if he hasn't already, trade him. I'm not comfortable giving a pitcher any more than that, even one as good as Greinke.

 

Even if the Brewers get back in the race after this nine game stretch, which would basically mean winning the next six, I'd still trade Greinke. There's too good of an opportunity to pass up just to take an outside shot at the postseason.

[nate82]

 

Well the obvious name that comes immediately to mind is Jeff Niemann who the Rays were shopping for offense which they didn't get at the deadline and ultimately led to them signing Pat Burrell and trading Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce.

 

But I'm sure that was just another made up internet rumor and Niemann wasn't actually available.

 

We have no idea what names are discussed behind closed doors, but it seems disingenuous and rather dismissive to suggest there were no other trade possibilities than Sabathia. However that's the convenient and often repeated defense of Melvin, the "What else was he supposed to do?" defense. That question has literally been answered ad nauseum and while I have no doubt that Doug took the best deal of a specific type that was available in every trade he's made, that doesn't mean there weren't other deals out there for the taking.

 

I think it's fair to say Melvin isn't a very good judge of pitching talent, his FA acquisitions are the type that more statistical orientated posters would have favored, the most productive for the money type of player. Wolf was largely alright, but the rest of the starting pitchers he's acquired in FA... blah. It's also fair to say that he doesn't trade for high risk players with high ceilings, he chooses lesser talent that's more likely to contribute at MLB. He's never made a Teixeira type trade in Milwaukee, he's always been a buyer with prospects. Melvin's trading philosophies are as predictable as they are redundant, the same trades keep coming round and round...

 

The only made up rumor that I have seen touted here is the Hart for Cain rumor which is blatantly false where there was no research done because if any research would have been done it would have been clear to see that the rumor was blatantly false and never even existed in the first place. For example the only real rumor on the internet or anywhere was Hart for Sanchez which is very blah yuck disgusting etc.

 

I'm sorry but Niemann would not have been a good trade for the Brewers. I am not sure why you and others are fascinated with him he is not all that great he is a #3 pitcher at best and probably better suited as a #4 or #5 pitcher.

 

Now for Jackson yes that would have been a good trade but I do not see why the Rays would have been interested in Laporta at that time for Jackson as Laporta wasn't ready yet and the Rays were looking for someone more advanced than Laporta. To me Laporta was a very questionable prospect and Melvin actually got the best talent from trading Laporta. To be honest Laporta was nothing special as he had a lot of holes in his swing and he still does to today.

 

As for your Teixeira type trade comment name one other GM that has made a trade like that. If you are expecting a GM to make a Teixeira like trade you are only setting yourself up for disappointment those trades are rare. The only way Melvin would have been able to do that would have been trading Prince after his second year with the Brewers or trading Braun now or in the next two years.

 

To be honest the Brewers haven't had a good minor league system to trade for the type of players you want Melvin to be trading for in a long time. In order for that type of a trade to be done it would have had to of happened when Hardy, Weeks, Hart, and Fielder were in the minors.

 

The only trade that probably should have happened was the Fielder for Cain trade. That is the only trade that should have happened but I highly doubt Mark A would have signed off on that trade.

[Raw Biz]

When he declines the 100 mil offer, if he hasn't already, trade him. I'm not comfortable giving a pitcher any more than that, even one as good as Greinke.

 

Even if the Brewers get back in the race after this nine game stretch, which would basically mean winning the next six, I'd still trade Greinke. There's too good of an opportunity to pass up just to take an outside shot at the postseason.

 

Exactly. The goal should be to win the WS, not simply make the playoffs. They should also always be trying to sustain success, not just going after these "all-in" years. They really need to trade Greinke, even if they're not technically out of it. Organizations like the Brewers have to be smart with their talent and we can't keep trading away all our prospects and only getting draft picks in return, especially when we haven't done a very good job of drafting/developing since Jack Z. left

[TooLiveBrew]

Teams that have been aggressive on the international FA signings in recent years seem to be signing top prospects in the $5M-15M range (disclaimer: that's not intended to be an infallible price range), depending on the perceived ceiling of said prospect. And I should clarify I don't mean international FAs like Nori Aoki, Yu Darvish, or Yoenis Cespedes... I mean younger players.

 

If the Brewers are willing to offer $100M to one player, why not re-allocate that money & sign 10-20 impact-caliber international FA prospects? And I know I kind of separated out this kind of signing, but heck, roughly $30M bought the Reds the physical prime of Aroldis Chapman, who has arguably the best LH arm in all of MLB (& maybe just the best arm overall).

 

Imho, the Brewers are currently at a crossroads in terms of the organizational approach to team-building. They can make the conscious choice to continue to overpay (both via trade & FA) for players as short-term solutions, or they can choose to revamp how they assess and value talent. If the Brewers could legitimately afford to go the pricier route, it'd still bug me that they would do it, but I could at least stomach it. With the financial realities they have to face, the fact that they're not investing more on the international FA market is maddening to me.

[Bnowell4evr]

I could of swore the Giants were demanding Prince Fielder AND JJ Hardy for Matt Cain a couple years ago.

[endaround]

Teams that have been aggressive on the international FA signings in recent years seem to be signing top prospects in the $5M-15M range (disclaimer: that's not intended to be an infallible price range), depending on the perceived ceiling of said prospect. And I should clarify I don't mean international FAs like Nori Aoki, Yu Darvish, or Yoenis Cespedes... I mean younger players.

 

If the Brewers are willing to offer $100M to one player, why not re-allocate that money & sign 10-20 impact-caliber international FA prospects? And I know I kind of separated out this kind of signing, but heck, roughly $30M bought the Reds the physical prime of Aroldis Chapman, who has arguably the best LH arm in all of MLB (& maybe just the best arm overall).

 

Imho, the Brewers are currently at a crossroads in terms of the organizational approach to team-building. They can make the conscious choice to continue to overpay (both via trade & FA) for players as short-term solutions, or they can choose to revamp how they assess and value talent. If the Brewers could legitimately afford to go the pricier route, it'd still bug me that they would do it, but I could at least stomach it. With the financial realities they have to face, the fact that they're not investing more on the international FA market is maddening to me.

 

New rules severely limit what teams can spend on international signings

 

EDIT:Also the Chapman deal is terrible as long as he stays relieving (which maybe all he can do?)

[endaround]

I could of swore the Giants were demanding Prince Fielder AND JJ Hardy for Matt Cain a couple years ago.

Yep. My guess is the latest Fielder for Cain story probably also included Ordozzi or Escobar. And a Fielder for Cain straight swap doesn't do much anyway since Cain was only under control for one more year than Fielder.

[Invader3K]

I am firmly in the camp of "He isn't going to sign long term at this point." I'm sick of hoping for him to re-sign, as we saw what that kind of hope brought with Fielder and Sabathia before him. Do we actually know if this supposed $100 million deal is on the table right now? I almost get the sense it's referring to something that was discussed earlier in the season (or spring).

 

Anyway, if the team doesn't win the next two series, you trade him for the best deal possible, assuming that is better than the one or two draft picks you would get after he leaves. It's not too complicated really.

[monty57]

Sign him. Do whatever it takes. Yes, I'm totally serious. Pull up the Brinks truck. Let him work in the war room on draft day. Who cares? Do whatever it takes -- much of which also probably means making the right kinds of baseball decisions that help him feel Milwaukee can continue to be a winning baseball team and not just a smaller but baseball-crazy town.

 

To me, these are contradictory. "Doing whatever it takes" to sign one player is not the "right kind of baseball decision" to allow Milwaukee to "continue to be a winning baseball team."

 

If we were to sign Greinke to a $20MM/year deal, then I can't imagine we would trade Hart or Ramirez, as we would once again be "all in" next year, with the arguement "we have to go all in while we still have Hart." Therefore, we would have Weeks ($11M), Hart ($10.33M), Braun ($9.5M), Ramirez ($10M), Gallardo ($8M), Aoki ($1.25M), Lucroy ($0.85M) and Greinke ($20M) making around $71MM. That's $71MM for eight players.

 

We'd have Morgan, Loe, Veras, Gomez, Axford, Parra, Kottaras, Narveson and Estrada arbitration eligible. Morgan and Gomez would probably combine for $5.5MM. Loe, Veras and Parra could cost $3MM each. Narveson probably won't be offered as he is too much of a health risk to guarantee $1MM. Kottaras probably won't be offered arby as we'd be paying him $1.5MM or so when we have Maldonado at league minimum. Estrada and Axford will be the only "values" as they're in their first year so they'll probably make $1-2MM each.

 

If we offered arby to all of them except Narveson & Kottaras, we'd have 15 players accounting for around $88.5MM. That's right around where our opening day payroll was supposed to be this season, and we still need 10 more players.

 

A rotation of Gallardo, Greinke, Estrada, Thornburg, Fiers probably isn't a playoff rotation next year. We don't have a bullpen. We have Bianchi/Ransom at SS/Utility IF. Sure we could dump Gomez and Morgan to save $5.5MM, but if we don't trade them this year, we either need to offer them arby or lose them to free agency. Same with Loe/Veras/Parra in the pen. If we don't offer them arby, then we're going to pay as much or more to try to find bullpen arms in free agency.

 

If we were to extend Greinke, then I think the only way we could remain competitive is to trade Ramirez and Hart for good, young, MLB-ready players, and trade Gomez, Morgan, Veras, K-Rod, Loe, Kottaras for any kind of return we can get, hoping for some bullpen/bench help going forward. This would bring in some pre-arby talent which could help and would free up enough cash to fill in some holes.

 

Since we wouldn't do that, then I think we need to trade Greinke and hopefully get a good package in return.

[patrickgpe]

i think you have to have a signed contract before the trade deadline or else you trade him. while i think its harder to resign him after you traded him away its still possible.

[wibadgers23]

Trade him. We need to get some elite talent back in our minor league system. This is one of the ways to do it.

[jerichoholicninja]

Trade him. We need to get some elite talent back in our minor league system. This is one of the ways to do it.

 

If the rumors are true, no one wants to give up elite talent. If that is true I say ride out the season with him, and take the picks if he doesn't want to sign.

Personally, I'm in the camp to give him a blank check. No one in the system projects as anything close to Greinke and the organization hasn't had any luck developing starting pitching outside of Gallardo.

[3and2Fastball]

I don't want to get into the specifics of the "who could we trade him for" topic, but essentially I would sign him longterm unless I was absolutely blown away with a trade offer that brought us back a top (and I mean top 5-10 overall) prospect

[hawing]

Apologies if this is posted elsewhere on the forum, but Mike Vassallo of the Brewers just tweeted this:

 

Now starting Wednesday vs. StL for the #Brewers will be Tyler Thornburg. Ron will address later. Greinke had been listed.

 

link to tweet:

[slappzilla]

When he declines the 100 mil offer, if he hasn't already, trade him. I'm not comfortable giving a pitcher any more than that, even one as good as Greinke.

cosigned

 

I read one report that he did in fact turn down the 100M offer, but I can't find the link to it so take it with a grain a salt. Probably saw it on twitter where I get all my other news from but can't remember who said it.

 

Phillies and Hamels supposedly close on a major deal. Watch that be a mammoth deal that will jack up Greinke's worth beyond belief.

 

People need to remember that this years $96M payroll is out of the ordinary. The Brewers did not anticipate KRod accepting arbitration and they signed Aramis to his deal as a panic move assuming Braun would be missing 50 games. I'd say Brewers payroll tops out at more like $85-90M. Mark will spend but he's not going into his own pockets.