The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 2)

[paul253]

The longer the Pirates play well the more I wonder if they might be interested in one of our guys. With as bad as they have been for as long as they have been you'd have to think they'll make a real effort to do all they can to win the division. They seem to lack that "ace" type pitcher and could really use Greinke or Marcum. I just wonder how well they match up with us as a trade partner. Their top two prospects are pitchers (Cole and Taillon) and there next best is a center fielder (Marte). I doubt they'd part with Taillon or Cole and centerfield seems like the last position Milwaukee needs. They also look like they could use an upgrade offensively, especially corner outfield. Corey Hart would help them out.

 

Anyone see Pittsburgh as a possible match? I see Marcum as the best fit for the as Greinke would cost too much and Hart....well Melvin just isn't going to trade Hart.

 

-----

Continued from:

 

viewtopic.php?p=799495#p799495

 

Original Lead:

 

viewtopic.php?t=28549

[torts]

The longer the Pirates play well the more I wonder if they might be interested in one of our guys. With as bad as they have been for as long as they have been you'd have to think they'll make a real effort to do all they can to win the division. They seem to lack that "ace" type pitcher and could really use Greinke or Marcum. I just wonder how well they match up with us as a trade partner. Their top two prospects are pitchers (Cole and Taillon) and there next best is a center fielder (Marte). I doubt they'd part with Taillon or Cole and centerfield seems like the last position Milwaukee needs. They also look like they could use an upgrade offensively, especially corner outfield. Corey Hart would help them out.

 

Anyone see Pittsburgh as a possible match? I see Marcum as the best fit for the as Greinke would cost too much and Hart....well Melvin just isn't going to trade Hart.

 

pirates have great depth in the outfield, which is not a need for the brewers. they also, supposedly have depth in pitching... but they've promoted Cole already to AA, he's going to be on the MLB roster next season so he's not going anywhere, and Taillon a year or so behind, neither are going anywhere. Rudy Owens is a pitcher i'd want in whatever package is put together...

[RockCoCougars]

Other teams (like Atlanta and St Louis) aren't in the same situation as the Brewers, so they have the luxury of "buying" without destroying their future.

 

Last offseason, the Braves were trying to trade Prado and Jurrjens because they were due to start getting big raises through arbitration. The time will also be coming where they will need to go to the table with Heyward on an extension. I got a kick out of one of their writers saying that they would be in on Greinke if they could work an extension out that was closer than $15 million per and they wouldn't pay $20 million.

 

St. Louis seems to be in a better position, but count me in as someone who wouldn't trade them Greinke unless they made an insane offer.

 

Bottom line, I really don't think that the Brewers future is all that bleak if they could figure out a way to sign Greinke. Had the bullpen not completely wet the bed this season (let's say even three less blown games), we wouldn't even be discussing this right now because the Brewers would be right with those two teams. I think that the bullpen is fixable moving forward.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The Pirates definitely could use another starter, but not sure if it would be Marcum. They may want to try to acquire one sooner rather than later, and Marcum likely won't be tradeable until right at the deadline due to his injury. It's always a possibility though. I agree that they aren't a match for Greinke. The only team in our division I could see going after Greinke is St. Louis, and it's questionable whether or not they could outbid Texas and Atlanta.

[RockCoCougars]

Every day that goes by makes it more unlikely that Marcum is going to bring anything. Has anyone heard a status update since he had the painful throwing session a week or two ago? I've got to assume that they've ruled any major injury out, but you can never be sure. We may be looking at a Sheets like arbitration situation in a few months. Let's say that Marcum pitches very little the rest of the season and/or comes back ineffective. I can't think that he'd bring too much in arbitration, but he might be forced to accept.

[TooLiveBrew]

Other teams (like Atlanta and St Louis) aren't in the same situation as the Brewers, so they have the luxury of "buying" without destroying their future.

 

Last offseason, the Braves were trying to trade Prado and Jurrjens because they were due to start getting big raises through arbitration. The time will also be coming where they will need to go to the table with Heyward on an extension. I got a kick out of one of their writers saying that they would be in on Greinke if they could work an extension out that was closer than $15 million per and they wouldn't pay $20

I'm really interested to see what happens w. ATL's ownership situation. Iirc the current group is expected to put them up for sale this offseason. With a talented roster, andgood farm system, they should be a very attractive commodity. Once/if they have ownership committed to winning, they should easily be able to afford to extend their stars like Heyward to Braun-esque deals. Until/unless that happens, though, they'll be stuck havimg to operate like (relative) paupers.

[torts]

Every day that goes by makes it more unlikely that Marcum is going to bring anything. Has anyone heard a status update since he had the painful throwing session a week or two ago? I've got to assume that they've ruled any major injury out, but you can never be sure. We may be looking at a Sheets like arbitration situation in a few months. Let's say that Marcum pitches very little the rest of the season and/or comes back ineffective. I can't think that he'd bring too much in arbitration, but he might be forced to accept.

 

Marcum is done with his arbitration years, he is free agent this fall

[RockCoCougars]

Even though he's a free agent, they can still offer him arbitration. If he accepts, they work out a one year deal, if he declines and signs somewhere else then the Brewers get pick(s). This is how they got stuck with K Rod. They did the same with Sheets when his arm was hanging by a thread, and got lucky when he didn't accept (but they didn't end up getting the draft choices either).

 

At least I believe this is still the case unless this has also changed in the new CBA?

[paul253]

I don't think it's "arbitration" anymore. I think there is a set contract they offer him that is based off the average of a certain number of top salaries. But the idea is the same. If the Brewers offer it and he accepts the contract is his. If he declines they get picks. If they don't offer it he is a free agent and no picks. I actually like the new rules as it seems like it will dramatically reduce the number of compensation picks awarded.

[torts]

Even though he's a free agent, they can still offer him arbitration. If he accepts, they work out a one year deal, if he declines and signs somewhere else then the Brewers get pick(s). This is how they got stuck with K Rod. They did the same with Sheets when his arm was hanging by a thread, and got lucky when he didn't accept (but they didn't end up getting the draft choices either).

 

At least I believe this is still the case unless this has also changed in the new CBA?

 

what they did with KRod was tender him a 1-year deal to qualify for a supplemental draft pick since he qualified as a TypeA free agent, hoping someone on the market would offer him something more and he'd accept it. when no one did, the brewers got stuck with what they offered.

 

also, this did change in the new CBA, off hand I cant remember, but I do know Brewers are the last team to qualify for getting supplemental picks if a player is lost as a type A player. it has something to do with size of market/payroll amount or something to that effect.

[torts]

huh, part of my response is missing...

 

arbitration is when a player feels they deserve $xxx for their next contract, management believes they deserve $yyy, neither can agree to either amount, so an arbitrator, who is an independent outside 3rd party, decides on one or the other amount as a binding contract.

[RockCoCougars]

Interesting. Sounds like the whole process has changed a bit then. I wonder what kind of 2013 salary we'd be looking at with the new system. Marcum is going to have to get back soon and prove that he's healthy if he wants to get a multi-year deal for good money.

[Raw Biz]

Interesting. Sounds like the whole process has changed a bit then. I wonder what kind of 2013 salary we'd be looking at with the new system. Marcum is going to have to get back soon and prove that he's healthy if he wants to get a multi-year deal for good money.

 

It's a one-year deal equal to I believe the average of the highest 125 contracts. So it would be something in the 12.5-13 million range. I think it's a no-brainer to offer Marcum that (assuming he's healthy). If he accepts, that's pretty good value for a player of his caliber and it's one less arm they need to find. If he declines, you get more picks.

[monty57]

Offering arbitration for free agents is gone, as are "Type A/B" free agents. If a team wants picks, they have to offer him a one-year deal, which is expected to be around $12-13MM this offseason. The player can accept the deal or decline the deal and become a free agent, whereupon the offering team will be compensated with picks.

 

The big asterisk is that the player has to be on the team at the start of the season for a team to be able to get compensatory picks. That means the Brewers could get picks for Greinke and Marcum, but if they trade them the receiving team will not get picks.

 

As to Greinke, teams will probably pay a lot for him even though they won't get picks, because he's a difference maker. For Marcum, we'll have to see if he's healthy by trade deadline or we won't get anything. If we hold onto him, we'll have to determine if we're willing to offer him a one-year/$12-13MM deal. If healthy, that's a no-brainer, but if there are lingering health questions, we may lose Marcum for nothing.

 

For Hart, his trade value is very high right now because our trade partner could get compensatory picks for him. Therefore, the return on Hart should be far greater than the value of two high draft picks. If we wait until next year's trade deadline, we probably won't get much.

[torts]

also, you can only get comp picks if the eligible player has been on your team (maj/min) since opening day, so you cannot get comp picks for a trade deadline pickup. and to get that pick, you have to submit a qualifying guaranteed salary that is equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid Players each year. so you'll probably see a lot fewer comp rd draft picks for the next 4+ years.

 

FROM THE CBA 2012-2016

Rights of Former Club

The following provision shall apply only to each Player who becomes a free agent under this Section B after having been continuously under reserve (without interruption) to the same Club (either at the Major or Minor League level) since Opening Day of the recently completed championship season (“Qualified Free Agent”). During the Quiet Period, the former Club of a Qualified Free Agent may tender the Qualified Free Agent a one-year Uniform Player’s Contract for the next succeeding season with a guaranteed salary that is equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid Players each year (“Qualifying Offer”). The amount of the Qualifying Offer each year shall be determined pursuant to Attachment 45 to this Agreement, and shall be communicated to Clubs and Players by the parties within ten (10) days of the conclusion of the championship season. Clubs shall inform the Labor Relations Department (“LRD”) of the Office of the Commissioner whether they will make a Qualifying Offer to a Qualified Free Agent, and the LRD will inform the Players Association no later than 5 P.M. Eastern

Time on the last day of the Quiet Period of each Club’s Qualifying Offers to Qualified Free Agents. If the former Club of a

Qualified Free Agent does not tender him a Qualifying Offer, it shall not be entitled to compensation under paragraph (4) of this Section B with respect to that Qualified Free Agent.

 

A Qualified Free Agent may accept a Qualifying Offer until the seventh day following the conclusion of the Quiet Period (“Acceptance Period”). The Players Association shall provide the LRD with a list of the Qualified Free Agents who have accepted the Qualifying Offer by 5 P.M. Eastern Time of the final day of the Acceptance Period. Any Qualifying Free Agent whose name is not included on the list provided by the Players Association to the LRD will be deemed to have rejected the Qualifying Offer. If the Player accepts the Qualifying Offer, he shall be a signed player for the next season on a one-year contract with a salary equal to the amount of the Qualifying Offer, and shall be eligible for inseason termination pay as set forth in Article IX, Section C if his Contract is terminated under paragraph 7(b)(2) of the Uniform Player’s Contract from the date of acceptance through the conclusion of the championship season.

 

(4) Compensation

(a) A Qualified Free Agent shall be subject to compensation only if: (i) his former Club tenders him a Qualifying Offer pursuant to paragraph (3) of this Section B; (ii) the Player declines the Qualifying Offer or signs a contract with another Major League Club prior to the expiration of the Acceptance Period; and (iii) the Player signs a Major League contract with another Major League Club that is confirmed by the Players Association and the LRD before the next succeeding Major League Rule 4 Draft (“Rule 4 Draft”). A Qualified Free Agent who signs a bona fide Minor League contract shall not be subject to compensation irrespective of whether the Minor League contract is subsequently assigned to the Major League Club provided that the execution of the Minor League contract and the subsequent assignment were not the product of an agreement or understanding designed to circumvent Article XX(B)(3) and (4).

[nate82]

also, this did change in the new CBA, off hand I cant remember, but I do know Brewers are the last team to qualify for getting supplemental picks if a player is lost as a type A player. it has something to do with size of market/payroll amount or something to that effect.

 

No it did not change in the new CBA. The only thing that has changed is that teams if they want to get supplemental picks is they have to offer a qualifying contract which is going to be something around $10-15m at least that is the rumored range nothing concrete yet that I have seen or can recall at the moment.

 

The second part of your statement makes no sense at all. I think you are thinking of something completely different which isn't even in the FA compensation part.

From the CBA: http://bizofbaseball.com/docs/2012-16CBA.pdf

(4) Compensation

(a) A Qualified Free Agent shall be subject to compensation only if: (i) his former Club tenders him a Qualifying Offer pursuant to paragraph (3) of this Section B; (ii) the Player declines the Qualifying Offer or signs a contract with another Major League Club prior to the expiration of the Acceptance Period; and (iii) the Player signs a Major League contract with another Major League Club that is confirmed by the Players Association and the LRD before the next succeeding Major League Rule 4 Draft (“Rule 4 Draft”). A Qualified Free Agent who signs a bona fide Minor League contract shall not be subject to compensation irrespective of whether the Minor League contract is subsequently assigned to the Major League Club provided that the execution of the Minor League contract and the subsequent assignment were not the product of an agreement or understanding designed to circumvent Article XX(B)(3) and (4). (b) Former Club. The former Club of a Qualified Free Agent subject to compensation shall receive an amateur draft choice (“Special Draft Choice”) in the next Rule 4 Draft. Clubs that have lost Qualified Free Agents subject to compensation shall receive a Special Draft Choice in the reverse order of their won-lost percentage in the recently completed season, with the selections beginning immediately following the last regular selection in the first round of Rule 4 Draft. If a Club is entitled to more than one Special Draft Choice, its selections will be slotted in succession. If two or more Clubs are tied, the Clubs shall select in the reverse order of their winning percentages in the season prior to the recently completed season, with any remaining ties to be resolved based on preceding season winning percentages.

 

© Signing Club.

i. A Club that signs one Qualified Free Agent who is subject to compensation shall forfeit its highest available selection in the next Rule 4 Draft. A Club that signs more than one Qualified Free Agent subject to compensation shall forfeit its highest remaining selection in the next Rule 4 Draft for each additional Qualified Free Agent it signs. Notwithstanding the above, a Club shall not be required to forfeit a selection in the top ten of the first round of the Rule 4 Draft, and its highest available selection shall be deemed its first selection following the tenth selection of the first round. ii. A Club’s highest available selection in the next Rule 4 Draft shall be determined after accounting for any selections the Club forfeited for exceeding its Signing Bonus Pool in the Rule 4 Draft. With the exception of draft selections awarded to a Club pursuant to Major League Rule 4©(2), all of a Club’s draft selections will be subject to forfeiture pursuant to subsection 4©(i)

 

This link breaks down the new CBA almost perfectly.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/cba-details-luxury-tax-draft-.html

[torts]

also, this did change in the new CBA, off hand I cant remember, but I do know Brewers are the last team to qualify for getting supplemental picks if a player is lost as a type A player. it has something to do with size of market/payroll amount or something to that effect.

 

No it did not change in the new CBA. The only thing that has changed is that teams if they want to get supplemental picks is they have to offer a qualifying contract which is going to be something around $10-15m at least that is the rumored range nothing concrete yet that I have seen or can recall at the moment.

 

The second part of your statement makes no sense at all. I think you are thinking of something completely different which isn't even in the FA compensation part.

 

you're correct, I did incorrectly remember that part. I did correct myself in a second post though, prior to you posting this one

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think offering Marcum for $12 or $13 million is a no-brainer other than for Marcum who'd probably take it at this point. A lot depends on what else is out there, whether they'd still make a play for Greinke as a FA even after dealing him, or Hamilton (I heard Phil Rogers mention his connection to the Narron's just this weekend), who they'd get in a deal for Greinke, etc.

 

Letting a player who has a large salary go without draft pick compensation isn't letting him go for nothing. Substantial salary relief like they will get when K-Rod and Wolf depart isn't "nothing".

[monty57]

I don't think offering Marcum for $12 or $13 million is a no-brainer other than for Marcum who'd probably take it at this point.

 

I said if he's healthy offering the deal was a no-brainer. Getting a healthy Marcum on a one-year deal would be excellent for the 2013 Brewers. That would fill in a big hole in the rotation and would get us one step closer to our prospects being MLB ready. If he doesn't accept (which is likely if he is healthy), then we get a couple of high draft picks.

 

Of course we wouldn't offer the deal if he's hurt. In that case, we don't even get comp picks when he leaves and the Lawrie trade will look that much worse.

 

I'd rather he just get healthy soon so he can get a few pain-free starts in prior to the trade deadline. If we sell, he'll be a big trade chip. If we don't sell, we'll need him if we want to have any chance in the world of making the playoffs.

[hyerbro1]

Orioles are supposedly "going hard" after Greinke. They seem like a really good match as they have 2 strong SS prospects in Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop.

 

A package of Schoop, Matuz, and minor league relief prospect would have me interested and seems realistic.

 

Jonathan Schoop

 

Orioles Top 20

[KCBrewerfan34]

Bundy or Machado (or both) have to comeback for Greinke. The Orioles are starved for the playoffs, they can have KRod as well. Of if they want Marcum and Greinke either way 1 or both of thosetop guys have to comeback our way, no B or B+ prospect for Greinke.

[KCBrewerfan34]

The Orioles would have to pay handsomely in this kind of deal. They have two top prospects in starting pitcher Dylan Bundy and shortstop Manny Machado. Would the team want to part with those two to bring in Greinke? It's certainly possible, though highly unlikely. Bundy has been great in limited exposure in the minors and Machado has definitely shown his talent despite a mediocre stint at Double-A so far this season. The Braves, always with a load of talent in the minors, might not have a problem outbidding the Orioles. A trade

[torts]

I would love to deal with the Orioles, especially since they're not competition for the brewers anymore like the 70s/80s, i dont hate them anymore. would love to see them vault into the playoffs with Zach on the mound

[fondybrewfan]

Bundy would never happen. If they won't trade Machado then don't even bother calling back. No one else really intrigues me all that much; there is a huge drop off after those two.

[TheCrew07]

Just so I understand, you think that 2 months of Greinke + the playoffs (possibly) is worth 2 of the top 10 prospects in Baseball? BA put out the mid season rankings and not so surprising Bundy jumped past Profar but those are 1 and 2, and Machado is the #9.

 

I think some of you seriously over value Greinke and just making the playoffs. Texas would be crazy to do the #2 prospect for Greinke and they have a legitimate opportunity to win a World Series, that result would be the product of some serious bidding between teams.

 

There is no way a realistic return from the O's is both Bundy and Machado. Baltimore is building around pitching, I could see them trading Machado but there's just no way we get Bundy. When we acquired Sabathia who's a better and more consistent pitcher in 2008 we only gave up LaPorta out of the top 50, and the Indians got comp picks and we controlled him longer than anyone getting Greinke would. That would have been like us trading LaPorta and Gamel/Escobar in that same deal, there was just no way.