The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 3)

[Eye Black]

Segura was added to the MLB roster, but no DL for Aybar yet. I agree that the Angels have other attractive trade chips in Richards, Cron, and Cowart as well.

[Kelbysdaddy]

I was hopeful that the crew would draft cron last year but Im not sure he'd be worth trading for. He seems really slow and doesn't move well, even for a 1b.

[molitor fan]

Ian Desmond might be done for the season with a torn oblique for Nationals....this could impact us in regard to what the Braves do as well as the Nationals......

[NievesNoNO]

Well hopefully now Melvin is ready to admit that his team is no longer a contender. Zack really needs a good start...or should I say the Brewers really need Zack to have a good start against Philly. With Garza's leaving his start early and Dempster getting roughed up a bit last time out Greinke could really increase his value with a good start.

 

The Brewers really made an awful decision with him IMO skipping his last start. They based his last 14 innings on benching their best pitcher when they were supposedly trying to stay in the race? And, now teams are likely wondering if he's hurt. Strike two. I don't necessarily think he needs a great outing he just needs to throw the ball as he usually does to prove he's not hurt. Even if he's not all that sharp I don't believe that will impact how teams view him. He has a long enough history that teams won't take his last 15-20 innings as his true value.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Ok I got the trade offer. How about Greinke and our #2 rounder (lottery pick) FOR Morales and Segura?

[rluzinski]

FIP is only meaningless to the people who don't know how to use it. It's not a projection and shouldn't be used as one.

[TheCrew07]

It's meaningless because it's impossible to neutralize fielding through backwards calculations at this point in time.

[HiAndTight]

Okay, this is a long post, but I don't chime in very often, so please hear me out on this before ripping it apart.

 

I think resigning Greinke is the best option and provides the best potential future for the Brewers. It gives us the opportunity to stay competetive and we should add to the farm system with expiring contracts next year, not this one. I beleive the injury situation has made it so the only person we should trade this year is K-Rod. Also, it sounds like GMs are being a little tentative in their deadline trades this year as they sort out the new CBA value of making deadline trades.

 

Here's what I would do:

Starting Pitching:

1) Resigning Greinke is necessary - he is definitely the Brewer's best pitcher. Yo has got the talent, but he doesn't have the consistancy and wastes too many pitches to go deep into games. Greinke is a legit #1 and Yo is proving to be more of a #2.

2) Let Wolf & Narveson go at the end of this year and fill the 4 & 5 spots with best of Fiers/Thornburg/Estrada. Given the results this year, this actually should improve the rotation while saving enough money for Greinke's new contract and add a few bucks for other raises.

3) Offer Marcum Arby - he will more than likely take it as no GM is going to offer him a better deal due to his injury this year and past arm trouble. Then, trade him at the deadline next year for a prospect.

 

Starting Pitching Result: More talented rotation at the back end and we can trade Marcum at the deadline next year (save a portion of his salary and get a good prospect back). The loser of the Fiers/Thornburg/Estrada battle or Peralta could slide into Marcum's slot at that point, and we have a very affordable rotation going forward for the next few years.

 

Relief Pitching:

1) Trade K-Rod before the deadline this year for a propsect. The removal of K-Rod's salary would cover Marcum's arby salary increase next year with a little left over to cover some other player's raises.

2) There are certainly a few guys on the roster I would non-tender at the end of this year (such as Loe) as well. This would free up a few million to re-tool a couple spots in the pen. Or, they are going to have to do something with Rodgers and Scarpetta so they will probably fill roles in the pen next year at a very inexpensive price.

 

Relief Pitching Result: Bullpen would hopefully be a little better (as it can't be much worse than this year). It seems like it's always every other year that we have a good pen. Obviously, with K-Rod gone and a few of the other guys currently in arby years being let go, the pen would also be much less expensive.

 

Line-up:

1) Hart should be traded at the deadline next year for prospects. By then, hopefully Gamel or Morris is ready at first.

2) Try to trade or release Morgan in the offseason. Gindl or Schafer can easily cover the fourth spot as they gain some MLB experience. This season has shown us that Braun, Gomez/Platoon, and Aoki is the best way to arrange the outfield given the players we have.

3) Do not sign guys like Ishikawa & Izturis as they only waste salary. I think the Brewers need one solid veteran on the bech for leadership/pinch hitting, but that's it. Save the money.

 

Line-up Results: We have basically the same team as this year only we will have figured out from the beginning to play Aoki in RF and Hart at 1st, maximizing the lineup. Also, you gotta believe Rickie won't have such a horrible start to the year next year and hopefully we won't get the long term injuries we have had this year. Our lineup is showing that they will produce runs. The weak spot is still SS, but maybe Gonzalez or Bianchi can adequately improve the results we are getting from Ransom, Izturis, and Maysonette this year.

 

Overall: Yes, Greinke is our best trading option, but it's not like we are going to get the same caliber of player back in the deal for a rental player. We need Greinke back and if we do, we will continue to have a shot a the playoffs for several years to come. Even if we have to match Cain's contract, I think it is worth it and we can afford it with our farm guys filling the back end of the rotation. I don't see anyone in our farm system being a top of the rotation guy except maybe Nelson, and without at least two top pitchers (Greinke and Yo), we have no real shot at the playoffs anytime soon. Plus, we'll still get at least three decent prospects back in the K-Rod, Marcum and Hart trades that everyone on this board agrees our system really needs. Our team is not that far off this year, a few tweaks and a couple prospects from next year's trades and we could be in good shape without wasting Braun and Yo's prime years as we try to find a new #1 pitcher.

 

 

 

I agree...signing Greinke gives us a chance long term. I think now that we're likely to lose him there's this natural inclination to diminish him as a pitcher. He doesn't play in San Fran in that park and I think he's a helluva lot closer to Cain than people are giving him credit for on here.

 

Second, I DO believe that Fiers can be a 3.40-ish pitcher. I've seen enough of him that he simply looks like he has that deceptive delivery and I think his control is good enough that he's going to be a pretty good solid starter.

 

You've got cheap years coming in TT, Peralta, Nelson, Rogers....

 

It's either that or be caught in baseball purgatory as you know they won't just completely tear it down and go 3-4 years rebuilding. They'll keep trying to win. And they might add a guy like Edwin Jackson, a couple BP arms, maybe they'll be decent, but no real threat unless they get lucky and they develop their own ace and another 2/3 type starter...which is pretty unlikely.

 

Though we certainly have guys who have the stuff to do it.

[1992casey]

HiAndTight, please take a look at "Quoting messages: please be brief."

[monty57]

Olney was on last night discussing the Rangers' situation. He made a good point that with the Rangers possibly losing Hamilton after the season, they realize that their chances of winning a World Series will go down. He said they will definitely move some of their top prospects to get an ace this year, and he thinks that if Hamels doesn't re-sign with the Phillies that they will work a deal centering on Olt-for-Hamels.

 

Profar's a pipe dream, but I still think the best situation would be landing Olt in a Greinke trade, and trading Ramirez to the Dodgers for pitching. We probably have to wait until Greinke makes another start to prove he's healthy, but I really hope Melvin moves before the Rangers trade for Hamels.

[JohnBriggs12]

Olney was on last night discussing the Rangers' situation. He made a good point that with the Rangers possibly losing Hamilton after the season, they realize that their chances of winning a World Series will go down. He said they will definitely move some of their top prospects to get an ace this year, and he thinks that if Hamels doesn't re-sign with the Phillies that they will work a deal centering on Olt-for-Hamels.

 

Profar's a pipe dream, but I still think the best situation would be landing Olt in a Greinke trade, and trading Ramirez to the Dodgers for pitching. We probably have to wait until Greinke makes another start to prove he's healthy, but I really hope Melvin moves before the Rangers trade for Hamels.

 

I like that scenario as well even if you had to sweeten the deal just a bit with a Green. Unloading Ramirez and Greinke, would set the Brewers up to be players for Hamilton too.

[JohnBriggs12]

"they might add a guy like Edwin Jackson, a couple BP arms maybe they'll be decent".

 

First off, they had Greinke this year and they've not been decent. Keeping him guarantees nothing either. Even last year, 96 wins was sort of an allusion. Any decent team that played 50 or so of it's games against the 2011 Cubs, Astros, and Pirates, should be well over .500. The Astros are leaving the division. The Pirates are much better, and the Cubs are overhauling their roster and will be good sooner rather than later.

 

They need to address this offense which still hasn't recovered from losing Fielder, add a reasonably priced starting pitcher for some veteran presence, and shore up the pen and hope Axford and Weeks return to form. They can do all that and may still make a run at Hamilton. That makes them decent and if you're decent, at least you have a chance. This year's collection including Greinke isn't a winner.

[paul253]

I'd offer Greinke straight up for Mike Olt right now. Hamels would probably require more than just Olt and the Rangers would have to decide if it is worth the risk. Mike Olt is the middle of the order hitter than Milwaukee needs and he can play either corner infield spot. He's young, he's cheap, and he is the kind of player Milwaukee needs. I am a little worried he's going to end up having a Matt LaPorta type career but the fact is you probably aren't going to do much better for Greinke. And if you hang onto him you're going to have a tough time getting a prospect like Olt with the one pick after the first round that you'll get in return.

[dlk9s]

They need to address this offense which still hasn't recovered from losing Fielder

 

2011 offense: 4.45 runs/g

2012 offense: 4.41 runs/g

[brwrsfan]

The problem with the offense is that it's all boom or bust. It was that way with Fielder too, just a little more boom obviously. It also doesn't help to keep putting out lineups that include Weeks at .195, any combo of Izturis/Ransom with a .200 average and Morgan is just not helpful. Throw in the fact that our pitchers have been basically useless at the plate this year and we have 4 guys that are almost automatic outs, plus less power without Prince. Makes it pretty hard to score runs consistently, even if the runs per game are about the same.

[Hate those Rodents]

Greinke, Maldanado, and either a B pitching prospect or their pick of (KROD, Wolf, Loe, Parra) for Olt, Odor, Holland

[trwi7]

I wouldn't mind the Brewers using their 2nd round pick in a Greinke package to up the prospect packages offered to us.

[Funketown]

The problem with the offense is that it's all boom or bust. It was that way with Fielder too, just a little more boom obviously.

 

Haven't we looked into this multiple times and found that the Brewers' offense is no more "streaky" than other teams? Offense in baseball is, in general, fairly "boom or bust" to the observer.

[Hate those Rodents]

I am guessing that pick is more valuable to on draft day(s) or at least the closer we get to the draft. I also bet we want to hold onto it depending upon if we get rid of our top one for signing a guy in the off season. That said, good point.

[torts]

The problem with the offense is that it's all boom or bust. It was that way with Fielder too, just a little more boom obviously. It also doesn't help to keep putting out lineups that include Weeks at .195, any combo of Izturis/Ransom with a .200 average and Morgan is just not helpful. Throw in the fact that our pitchers have been basically useless at the plate this year and we have 4 guys that are almost automatic outs, plus less power without Prince. Makes it pretty hard to score runs consistently, even if the runs per game are about the same.

 

while Weeks was an All-Star last year, they still were putting out McGehee and Betancourt on a regular basis, who were also close to automatic outs...

[monty57]

Our team next year is going to have a lot of holes to fill. We can either use all of our free cash to sign Greinke and hope that Ransom, Bianchi, Schafer, Estrada, Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta and whatever we can find for the bullpen will play well enough to not sink the ship. Or, we can trade our "chips" for young, talented pre-arby guys to fill some of the holes and use the loads of freed up cash to fill in some of the other holes.

 

Either way has risks. If Fiers and Estrada continue to pitch the way they have, we could be decent in either of the above scenarios. If they put up 5+ ERAs next year, we won't be good in either of the above scenarios. That being the case, I prefer to go the route that brings in young, inexpensive talent we'll hold for six seasons, and gives us a lot of financial flexibility over the path that relies on a few high-priced players and puts us in somewhat risky financial territory.

[RockCoCougars]

The problem with the offense is that it's all boom or bust. It was that way with Fielder too, just a little more boom obviously.

 

Haven't we looked into this multiple times and found that the Brewers' offense is no more "streaky" than other teams? Offense in baseball is, in general, fairly "boom or bust" to the observer.

 

I've seen some numbers, but I would still argue that the Brewers are more streaky than other teams. I'm even more inclined to say this because people are always throwing the RPG stat out there to compare the Brewer offense with other teams in the N.L. (lots of bad offensive teams this year) and past Brewers teams.

 

To me, the bottom line is this. I think they are very boom/bust in that it seems that they are either going to be one extreme or another. More specifically, they seem to rarely score exactly 4 or 5 runs in a game. In fact, the only team in the league who has hit these numbers fewer is the Padres. The Brewers have actually had more games in which they have scored 3 runs than they have in which they've scored either 4 or 5 combined. This is big because a team that scores 3 runs in the N.L. has won about 39% of the time this season, while teams that score 4 runs win about 54%. The failure to get that 4th run on the board exacerbates a weak bullpen, etc. Frankly, I think that the Brewer offense is not only streaky from game to game, but also from inning to inning, but I can't find stats to back that up. It seems that they've had a ton of games this season in which they've only scored in one or two innings, if at all. Again, this probably is not uncommon in baseball, but I'd bet that this version of the Brewers has a higher trend toward this than the league average.

[Baldkin]

Brewers: 3 runs or less: 43 times

Brewers 4 runs or more: 49 times

Opponents: 3 or less, 36 times 4 or more, 56 times.

 

Breakdown by runs: Brewers\Opponents

0 Runs= 7 4

1 Runs = 10 8

2 Runs = 8 12

3 Runs = 18 12

4 Runs = 8 17

5 Runs = 8 11

6 Runs = 10 7

7 Runs = 5 6

8 Runs = 10 6

9 Runs+ = 8 9

 

Random variance.

Edit: I have no idea where the other 2 games are or why my spreadsheet is not counting them.

 

Edit 2: Last line should've been 9+, because I was lazy.

[FVBrewerFan]

Is there a 10+ run line? That may explain the missing 2 games?

[Invader3K]

With Dempster going to the Braves, that is one less suitor...and of course one more reason why Melvin and Attanasio need to give up on this season and get moving on making things happen.